MARCHING DOWNWARD

Calgary resale housing market sees another month of declining sales

By Mario Toneguzzi

Calgary Herald  Published on: April 1, 2015

http://calgaryherald.com/business/real-estate/calgary-resale-housing-market-sees-another-month-of-declining-sales

AYE AYE

Buoyant economy fueling Calgary condo growth
Sales and new construction expected to rise in next two years
By Mario Toneguzzi 
Calgary Herald April 2, 2014 

CALGARY - Calgary’s buoyant economy, healthy population growth and excellent affordability will keep sales of existing condominiums rising over the next few years, says a new housing report released Wednesday.

The latest Conference Board of Canada condo report, released by Genworth Canada, said good demand will also lift condo starts in the city following a pullback in 2013 that was at least partly due to flooding in the summer.

The Winter 2014 Metropolitan Condo Outlook forecast Calgary to see the best growth in prices this year, for eight cities studied, for the resale condo market with median prices rising by 3.2 per cent to $260,523.

The report said they will rise a further 3.4 per cent in 2015 to $269,508.

“A strong economy is first and foremost and everything kind of spins off that,” said Robin Wiebe, senior economist at the Centre for Municipal Studies at the conference board, of the reasons for the optimism in the Calgary market. “When the economy is strong, people come there, come out for work, and that sets in motion the whole housing chain. Starts and resales and all the rest of it.”

The report forecast resale apartment condo sales would be up 2.9 per cent this year to 4,507 units and increase by 2.1 per cent next year to 4,601 units.

Wiebe said affordability in Calgary is a factor. The city has the highest average household income among the report’s eight cities and Calgary’s apartments are not particularly expensive with a median price below Montreal, Toronto, Ottawa, Victoria and Vancouver.

“That makes housing affordability in Calgary excellent,” he said.

The report forecast new condo apartment starts of 2,601 this year, up 6.9 per cent, followed by 2,680 in 2015, up by 3.0 per cent.

It said 2013’s absorptions of 2,772 was the most since 2008 “and likely would have been even stronger were it not for the floods.”

“Accordingly, the inventory of newly completed and unoccupied apartments fell to 244 units - a marked improvement from inventories of nearly 600 units in 2010. Absorptions are forecast to pull back in 2014, but remain strong at nearly 2,400 units,” said the report.

“Modest absorption gains during the medium term are forecast to keep trimming inventories - they will dip below their 20-year average in the projection’s outer years. Falling inventories will give builders the confidence to boost housing starts.”

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, condo apartment MLS sales in the resale market totaled 1,062 after the first quarter. Sales growth was strongest in this sector due to the availability of listings, it said. New listings after the first quarter totaled 1,722, an 18 per cent increase over the previous year. While demand continued to outpace listing growth, keeping market conditions relatively tight, inventory levels are similar to the previous year, said the board.

“Nearly 50 per cent of new listings in the apartment sector are priced in the range of $200,000 - $299,999, providing options for those looking for affordable product,” said Bill Kirk, CREB’s president.

For the first quarter of this year, the average MLS sale price for condo apartments in Calgary is $317,855, up 9.03 per cent from the same period last year.

“Some easing of the supply pressure in the condominium market is expected as new construction projects are completed,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB’s chief economist. “However, thanks to Calgary’s strong economy, it is expected that most new supply can be absorbed without risk of oversupply and condominium price correction.”

Photo By: Toni Holopainen

HIGH IN THE SKY APPLE PIE

Calgary condo market booming with high sales growth

New condo sales at strongest levels since 2006

BY MARIO TONEGUZZI

CALGARY HERALD OCTOBER 11, 2013

CALGARY — The pace of year-over-year sales growth in the resale condo market is much higher than the single-family home market this year in Calgary.

And new condo sales are also moving in an upward trend towards the strongest levels since 2006.

“Calgary’s condominium market remains resilient and in high demand with new construction being well supported demographically, exhibiting steady sales throughout the inner city and the downtown core,” said Kaitlyn Gottlieb, a realtor with Century 21 Bamber Realty Ltd. in Calgary.

“Calgary’s luxury condominium market remains immensely sought after. As Calgarians’ incomes continue to rise and our business sector attracts relocations, high-end buyers are taking advantage of the luxury condos that Calgary has to offer, boasting high-end finishes and their close proximity to the downtown core.”

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, year-to-date until October 10, MLS sales in the condo apartment category in the city were 3,253, up 14.58 per cent from the same period a year ago and the average sale price has jumped by 6.14 per cent to $298,050. In the condo townhouse category, sales of 2,600 are up 22.18 per cent from last year and the average sale price has risen by 6.60 per cent to $338,809.

The single-family home market in the city has seen sales rise by 7.36 per cent to 13,482 with the average price moving up by 8.18 per cent to $517,730.

“While the recent floods have undoubtedly impacted all sectors of Calgary’s housing market inclusive of the condominium market, as demonstrated by the increased demand for affordable housing, the overall market remains stable,” said Gottlieb.

“Steady migration, employment and population growth are major contributors as we move into the fourth quarter of the year. The relative affordability of our city’s housing market remains one of the best in Canada and we can expect to see Calgary’s condominium market continue to rise at a moderate, sustainable pace.”

A report by Altus Group says new condo sales in Calgary are at the strongest levels since 2006.

It said the new multi-family condo market has seen impressive sales in the first half of 2013 with almost 3,000 sales to start the year, an increase of 400 sales compared with the same period in 2012.

The sales pace this year is 16 per cent ahead of 2012 at mid-year and 74 per cent better than in 2011 for the same period.

“New suburban apartment and townhouse projects entering the market are primarily responsible for the strong sales results, with mid-year sales up sharply in the north and south quadrants of the city following the launch of several new projects during the Spring,” said the report. “In the downtown region, sales are generally consistent with last year’s pace, although sales activity has been more focused at projects with superior locations and faster possession timing.”

The report said the strong sales so far this year are expected to push the annual sales volume to about 5,000 units, potentially making 2013 the second strongest sales year in the past decade.

“Developers will begin to see cost pressures from higher land prices, construction cost escalations and a declining land supply in the suburban regions, while consumer activity could be impacted by the recent price growth, higher interest rates and more restrictive lending practices,” said the report.

“While home ownership will remain the goal for most consumers, the higher prices and interest rates may force some consumers to delay their purchase decision while they save for a larger down payment.”

BATTLING BOARDS

Alberta tries a new tack for resolving condo disputes
By Annalise Klingbeil 
Calgary Herald October 1, 2013

A newly created tribunal system will help condominium owners in Alberta who are embroiled in disputes avoid costly and time-consuming legal battles, the Minister of Service Alberta announced on Monday.

Manmeet Bhullar said the new dispute resolution process, expected to be operational by early 2014, will help protect the hundreds of thousands of condominium owners who live in Alberta.

“Everyday, hard-working Albertans who live in a condominium can’t afford $200 or $300 or $500 an hour to pay a lawyer,” Bhullar said Monday, standing near the Bow River, across from several condominium towers.

Bhullar said it’s common for condo owners to disagree with other condo owners and condo boards on issues ranging from parking spots to fees. “Owners can have disputes with one another over things like noise complaints and even odours coming from another unit,” he said.

Bhullar said the new system will allow condo owners to pay a “reasonable fee” to have their matter heard before an adjudicator.

Stephen Cassady, the president of the Canadian Condominium Institute — South Alberta Chapter, welcomed the government’s announcement of a new resolution model.

“It’s an entire waste of resources and time of people who could be better spending it doing something else,” he said of the current system.

Cassady said the industry has changed significantly in the 13 years since the government last updated its condominium legislation in 2000.

“If we can get (disputes) out of the court systems then we will do a phenomenal job of improving everybody’s life,” he said.

The new changes are the first of many to come to the province’s Condominium Property Act, following public consultation with Albertans, Bhullar said.

Instead of waiting for changes to the Act to be tabled in the Legislature in the spring, Bhullar said he is tasking a committee of people, led by Sherwood Park MLA Cathy Olesen, to develop the new dispute resolution model immediately. “Developing a more affordable and speedy way to resolve differences will help protect condominium owners,” Bhullar said.

Bhullar said condominiums accounted for nearly 20 per cent of home sales in Alberta in 2012.

Photo By: mira66

PREDICTING TRENDS

Don't forget to consider a new condo's palette
BY MARILYN WILSON
POSTMEDIA NEWSSEPTEMBER 7, 2013

There are many factors to consider when choosing a new condo. Competing for attention are details concerning location, site orientation, views, size, potential for resale and, often most important, cost. There is, however, another set of factors that buyers may not fully consider. These are the interior design features that come with the condo. Specifically, I want to discuss condo palettes - the hues of walls, fixtures, cabinetry and window treatments.

Let's assume you are not one of those lucky individuals who is starting with a bare-bones unit for which you will choose all spatial arrangements, appliances and finishes. In reality, most new buyers cannot boast of extensive experience in condo design and an absence of budget restrictions. Rather, they rely on pre-designed packages that include specific colour palettes and decor choices.

One way developers attract buyers is through interior design. They offer a variety of samples of flooring, cabinetry and counter-tops. Builders are always thinking forward in the rapid-paced environment of condo development, so predicting potential colour and texture trends when a condo is ready to be sold can help differentiate a builder's offerings from those of the competition.

Not only that, but as condo showrooms come out months - sometimes years - before construction, colour trends are often chosen in advance. For instance, 2014's must-have features and colours have already been established.

Builders usually enlist the expertise of the best interior designers in the country to develop their interior design palettes. Since many of these designers' fees are beyond what most individuals are willing to pay, a buyer can benefit indirectly from a designer's skills by purchasing a condo whose palette is a result of careful consideration.

In general, builders try to supply prospective purchasers with the hottest and most desirable designs, thereby outdoing their competition.

Model suites will give you your first taste of a condo's palette offerings. On show are a spectrum of colours, textures and design features that can be selected at no extra cost. The more you relate to the basic palettes offered, the more you get your money's worth.

If you have trouble picturing yourself living among this decor, it may be time to consider another development with a different designer. This will prevent you from struggling to accommodate someone else's taste. To complicate matters, the builder will offer a wide selection of extra-cost upgrades - flooring, appliances, built-ins, counter-tops and backsplashes - the list goes on and on. If you don't see an upgrade you want, just ask, as most requests can be accommodated.

If you have a clear sense of what works for you, the selection process can be relatively straightforward. Remember that a reputed designer has been working in the background on your behalf, and now the builder will supply an experienced consultant to help with the decision-making.

Despite this, you may also want to enlist the services of your own designer to help organize the palette and options to create your own unique space. If you go this route, make sure to pick a designer with similar tastes to your own. This is best done by viewing examples of their work, something most designers will be happy to arrange.

You may be wondering what the current trends are.

There is movement away from the beige-on-beige theme to more sophisticated taupes, greys, pewters, creams, almonds and cappuccinos. These rich tones add variety and interest to spaces while maintaining the virtue of not being statements in and of themselves.

Textures are evolving rapidly with many designers forgoing classic granite and tile themes in favour of composites and polished concrete set off by smooth or sandblasted glass or stainless-steel backsplashes.

It's important not to forget that seasonal views may have a strong influence on your colour palette. For instance, you may want to opt out of an all-white palette, as the decor will suffer when the city is blanketed in snow. Whatever you choose, try not to go too bold with your palette, as you may get sick of it or suffer during resale.

Otherwise, follow the instincts of your taste, and happy condo hunting.

Marilyn Wilson has been selling real estate for more than 24 years and owns Marilyn Wilson Dream Properties Inc.

CONDO FORECAST FOR 2014

Calgary condo price and sales growth forecast for 2014
Median price hike best in Canada this year
By Mario Toneguzzi 
Calgary Herald August 28, 2013 

CALGARY — Record growth is not in the foreseeable future of the Canadian condo market, but it is also likely the sector will be able to avoid a major downturn, according to the latest Conference Board of Canada condo report released Wednesday by Genworth Canada.

The Summer 2013 Metropolitan Condo Outlook suggests population growth and employment gains will help maintain demand levels to absorb supply inventory.

Calgary starts will be hampered in the third quarter by the flooding earlier in the year, but as the “youngest” city in the survey, it is expected to enjoy the highest growth in starts and resale volumes in 2014, with price growth at a moderate level of two per cent to 3.5 per cent over the next few years, said the report.

The report forecast the median price for a resale condo apartment in Calgary will rise this year by 2.8 per cent, the highest in Canada, to $251,237 and by another 3.3 per cent in 2014 to $259,640.

However, it is forecasting sales to drop by 11.6 per cent to 3,508 units this year but rebound by 10.2 per cent in 2014 to 3,867 sales.

“Whether it’s first-time homebuyers entering home ownership, empty nesters looking to downsize or professionals seeking a shorter commute, condos appear to remain a popular option for urban Canadians,” said Brian Hurley, chairman and chief executive of Genworth Canada.

The report said economic factors affecting the housing market, such as employment, interest rates and population growth, will only undergo moderate changes. Employment is expected to rise modestly in the medium-term and interest rates are expected to increase gradually, while population expansion and demographics will continue to support demand in regional markets.

“As condo starts near past averages and inventories edge closer to demand, we are seeing the condo market stabilize both in terms of the price of existing units and the volume of new construction,” said Robin Wiebe, senior economist at the Centre for Municipal Studies at the Conference Board of Canada. “Softer prices and positive economic factors continue to make condos an affordable way for Canadians to achieve home ownership.”

The report said condo sales in Calgary had been doing well before the flood, averaging over 3,900 units at an annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013.

“Active apartment listings had tapered off, hovering below 1,000 units in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of 2013,” said the report. Still, for 2012 as a whole, active listings averaged 1,263 units, up 30 per cent from 2011. The flood has presumably damaged at least some actual or potential apartment listings. This will cut active listings in the third quarter by 10 per cent and lead to a 26 per cent decline in listings for all of 2013.

“The lower listings last autumn lifted the sales-to-active-listings ratio slightly above 35 per cent, its highest level since 2009 and likely approaching sellers’ market conditions. The ratio is forecast to stabilize near 34 per cent in the third quarter of 2013 and end the year at 31 per cent. A solidly balanced market featuring a sales-to-active-listings ratio between 33 and 35 per cent is our call for between 2014 and 2017.”

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, year-to-date until August 27, there have been 2,767 MLS condo apartment sales in the city, up 14.20 per cent from a year ago. The median price has risen by 3.60 per cent to $259,000 while the average sale price has increased by 7.01 per cent to $297,954.

RISE AND SHINE

Low inventory, high demand pushing Calgary house prices upward
Royal LePage forecasts prices to continue to rise

By Mario Toneguzzi 

Calgary Herald July 9, 2013

A combination of low inventory and strong demand has driven prices of all housing types in Calgary higher, according to a report released Tuesday by Royal LePage.

The real estate firm, in its House Price Survey and Market Survey Forecast, said that year-over-year in the second quarter detached bungalows increased by 5.9 per cent to $457,889, condominiums were up six per cent, to $261,933, and standard two-storey homes rose by 6.7 per cent to $453,789.

“Inventory is low across all categories right now, and this is driving prices up,” said Ted Zaharko, broker and owner of Royal LePage Foothills, in a news release. “When a listing comes up, there is a swarm of potential buyers, and multiple offers are common. Condominiums are profiting from the spillover effect — buyers who are having difficulty breaking into the tight bungalow market are moving to the condominium market, to the point where inventory is tightening there as well.”

Zaharko said the recent flooding in Calgary may cause some “irregular activity” in the short-term but it won’t have a long-term impact on sales or prices.

He said prices are expected to continue to rise in Calgary as are overall sales.

“Unit sales would be greater if more inventory were available, but until additional inventory comes onto the market, growth in unit sales will be somewhat tempered,” he said.

Nationally, in the second quarter, standard two-storey homes and detached bungalows both showed a year-over-year average price increase of 2.7 per cent to $419,614 and $386,547, respectively. Average prices for standard condominiums rose 1.2 per cent to $248,750.

Royal LePage is forecasting average house prices in Calgary to rise year-over-year by 6.5 per cent this year to $439,000 while sales will increase by 3.3 per cent to 27,500 transactions.

Across the country, the real estate firm is forecasting a three per cent jump in prices to $374,650 with a decline of 5.0 per cent in sales to 430,500 units.

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, year-to-date until July 8, there have been 12,763 MLS sales in the city, up 4.71 per cent from the same period last year. The median price has increased by 4.99 per cent to $400,000 while the average price has risen by 6.75 per cent to $458,371.

AGE AND CONDO DEMAND

Condo demand stronger among older Canadians: BMO
Business News Network May 30, 2013

Think the condo market is a young man's game? Think again, a report from BMO says the demand among potential homebuyers for purchasing a condo is greater for Canadians over the age of 50.

Among prospective buyers over the age 50, about 30 percent said they were willing to buy a condo over the next five years, compared to just 17 percent for Canadians under the age 50, the survey said.

The condo market in Canada's cities is also being divided into the haves and have nots, the survey noted.

In both Toronto and Calgary the appetite for buying a condo is on the rise, while demand is falling in Montreal and Vancouver.

About one-third of prospective buyers surveyed in Toronto said they were planning to buy a condo in the next five years, an increase of 11 points from a survey conducted in the fall.

In Calgary, 33 percent of buyers said they were considering purchasing a condo in that time period, up 8 percent from a previous survey.

But the story in Vancouver and Montreal is the complete opposite, with the percentage of buyers thinking of purchasing a condo falling to 28 percent from 33 percent in Vancouver and down 3 points to 24 percent in Montreal.

"Condos remain an affordable alternative to the pricey detached market in some major cities," said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. "For example, a typical Toronto condo today requires just 22 percent of a median family's income to service; Vancouver condos - while more expensive - are still affordable at 28 percent of income.

The report from BMO comes amid a debate among economists and other investors whether the country's housing market is headed for a U.S.-style crash. While many economists on Bay Street say the country is moving towards a "soft landing," a number of investors say that call is too optimistic.

The condo market in major cities such as Toronto and Vancouver, has attracted significant negative attention.

On Wednesday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in its twice-yearly Economic Outlook warned of a potential for a pullback in housing prices in Canada. The OECD said Canada is one of three countries in the 34-member group where "houses appear overvalued but prices are still rising." The Toronto condominium market is the agency's "number one concern."

While a dramatic collapse in the housing market is unlikely, Jarrey said it can't be ruled out completely.

"Nobody saw the huge decline in the United State coming either five or six years ago – not nobody, but very few – and we could be having something very similar but it's not a very likely outcome," he said.

MONDO CONDO

Pace increases for condo sales
By Josh Skapin
Calgary Herald April 11, 2013

Sales of resale condos were on the upswing in March compared to a year earlier, says the Calgary Real Estate Board.

Sales climbed to 630 deals, up 6.6 per cent from 591 transactions during the same month last year.

Townhomes led the charge in sales with 283 moves after 235 units changed hands a year earlier, marking a 20 per cent change.

That came with a 10.3 per cent climb in new listings with 395 after there were 358 last March.

The apartment market, on the other hand, saw little change, easing 2.5 per cent.

“The condominium apartment market remains in balance,” says CREB chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie, in a news release.

Last month 347 apartments were sold after 356 deals during the same time in 2012.

New listings of apartments eased 13 per cent at 560 after there were 644 during the same time last year.

“While it has moved to the lower end of the spectrum, it remains better supplied than the single-family market and the majority of product available is in an affordable price range,” says Lurie.

While condo apartments dipped in sales, the benchmark price went up six per cent. The benchmark price is that of a typical home based on a formula that uses various factors to ensure accurate comparisons.

For condo apartments, the benchmark price was $257,700 last month, up six per cent from $243,000 a year earlier.

The townhome benchmark price also increased last month compared to a year earlier.

It reached $286,800 for a four per cent step up from $274,600 this time in 2012.

WORLD'S MOST EXPENSIVE APARTMENT BUILDING

Inside the world’s most expensive apartment building
By: Julie Zeveloff
Business Insider 13/03/15

London’s One Hyde Park is one of the wealthiest and most secretive residences in the world.

Apartments in the Knightsbridge complex cost more than $11,000 a square foot, nearly three times the typical price of luxury London real estate.

But relatively little is known about the people who own homes there. Of the 76 apartments sold in the 86-unit building, 64 are registered to corporations and just 17 are listed as primary residences, according to Nicholas Shaxson, who wrote a great exposé of the building in this month’s Vanity Fair.

Even so, Shaxson and others have found out who some of One Hyde Park’s owners are. Get to know some of the sheikhs, oligarchs, and global rich who own apartments at the world’s most expensive apartment building.

One Hyde Park, located in Knightsbridge, is adjacent to Hyde Park and the Mandarin Oriental hotel.

The per-square-foot price of a unit at One Hyde Park is 10 TIMES the price of average residential real estate in London, and nearly three times more than luxury real estate in the city.

Among other perks, there’s a stainless steel ozone pool, an entertainment suite, a golf simulator, and a spa run by the Mandarin Oriental.

There are also three retailers on site: Rolex, McLaren, and Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank.

Security in the building is insane. There are panic rooms, bulletproof glass, and guards trained by British Special Forces, according to Vanity Fair.

One Hyde Park was created through a joint venture between high-end real estate developers the Candy brothers and Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani, the Prime Minister of Qatar.

The owners were some of the first people to buy into the building. The Sheikh paid $64 million for his triplex, which Vanity Fair calls “the best apartment of all.”

Christian Candy reportedly has two apartments that cost $85 million. And Nick Candy owns an 11th-floor duplex penthouse.

In 2010, Ukrainian oligarch Rinat Akhmetov paid $216 million for a penthouse in the complex. It’s the most expensive home ever sold.

Two apartments worth $43.7 million are owned by Professor Wong Wen Young, likely the Taiwanese business tycoon Winston Wong Wen Young.

In April 2011, Australian pop star Kylie Minogue dropped $25 million on a three-bedroom flat in the complex.

Mohammed Saud Sultan al-Qasimi, head of finance for the government of Sharjah, part of the UAE, reportedly paid $18 million for his apartment.

At least one apartment is owned by Russian real-estate tycoon Vladislav Doronin, who is dating supermodel Naomi Campbell.

Nigerian billionaire Folorunsho Alakija is believed to have spent $123 million on several apartments there, all supposedly registered under the name Rose of Sharon.

Vladimir Kim, a copper baron and the wealthiest man in Kazakhstan with a net worth of $2.3 billion, also owns a home there.

And Rory Carvill, an insurance entrepreneur and chairman of U.K. based R.K. Carvill & Co. Ltd. reportedly paid $33.5 million for his residence and additional storage space.

Two apartments held by Irina Viktorovna Kharitonina and Viktor Kharitonin, presumed to be a co-owner of Russia’s largest domestic drugmaker, cost $49.8 million.

Want to live in One Hyde Park? You’re in luck—a 5-bedroom flat there recently came on the market. At $101 million, it’s the most expensive apartment currently for sale in London.

Photos are of apartments currently for sale at One Hyde Park; not actual residences.

FAMILY SIZE & THE CONDO MARKET

Shrinking family sizes bode well for Canada’s condo sector
Garry Marr
Financial Post Sep 19, 2012

Maybe the condo industry knew something revealed to the rest of us only Wednesday — family sizes are shrinking.

Statistics Canada’s census data showed a dramatic increase in one-person households, up 10.4% from 2006 to 2011. For the first-time, more households were comprised of couples without children than with children. Family size also shrunk, with the average number of children dropping from 2.7 in 1961 to 1.9 in 2011.

All of this seems to bode well for a condominium sector which demands its occupants accept smaller quarters than they are historically used to.

“I think the housing stock has already responded,” said Don Lawby, chief executive of Century 21 Canada. “I think the major cities are the ones that reacted the fastest. There is a movement that has been forced by economics to smaller accommodation.”

Mr. Lawby notes if you’ve made the decision not to have children, as the statistics show some have, that means you are living a very different life and your housing needs are not the same.

“Of course, this all plays into the condo’s hand,” he says. “But there still will be people who desire to have a single family detached home where they are the king of the castle.”

The evidence already points to huge demand for high-rise units, both from buyers who want to live in the units and investors who rent them out. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said it expects 207,200 new housing starts with 123,700 in the multiple-unit category, predominantly made up of condominiums.

And while there are forecasts that the housing market is slowing, the Crown corporation is still predicting 193,100 starts next year with 109,000 coming from the multiple category. Condominium projects in Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto have driven the demand, CMHC says.

Brian Johnston, chief operating officer of Mattamy Corp., said the industry has been responding rather than leading. “I think there has been demand for smaller housing,” he said.

All of this might just confirm what the real estate industry has been saying all along — they were just giving the people what they want. “I see these comments that builders are building too many houses — builders don’t create new houses because it’s a good idea, they do it because there is demand,” says Mr. Johnston, noting bank financing requires high pre-sale levels.

Doug Norris, chief demographer at Environics Analytics, predicts the impact on real estate of the country’s changing demographics is just starting. “Part of the condo boom is driven by Boomers starting to downsize and move into new types of housing,” he said. “[Living in] the single family [home] starts to dwindle after 50.”

Though the impact of the Baby Boomers has yet to be seen, Mr. Norris said they will probably downsize more than their predecessors.

Craig Alexander, chief economist with Toronto-Dominion Bank, says while there definitely is more demand for condo-style living, the overall amount of housing stock being built is still above household formation.

“We can tell from the census numbers that we are building too many houses,” says Mr. Alexander, noting there were 189,000 net new households per year from 2006 to 2011. “Yet when we look at the pace of home construction it has been well over 200,000 and in fact it was 218,000 annualized starts so far in 2012.”

He says you can build past demographic requirements for a short period, perhaps catching up with a previous lag, but it has to stop at some point.

“On the one hand I am concerned about the condo market because when we look at the current pace of construction and compare it to a generally sustainable rate, it’s way too fast but over the long haul there is long-term strong demand for condos,” says Mr. Alexander.

A"MAY"ZING MONTH!

Condo resale market climbs in May
By Josh Skapin
Calgary Herald, June 8, 2012

Calgary’s condo resale activity climbed 35 per cent in May, compared to the same time last year, says the Calgary Real Estate Board.

In fact, there were 675 apartment or townhouse sales last month after only 500 condo units changed hands in May 2011.

The average resale price for condo apartments last month was $280,030. For townhouses, the average price was $330,446.

High-end condo sales are also on the upswing in the city.

After the first five months of 2012, 10 townhouses priced from $900,000 were sold in the city — only three units in that price range changed hands during the same period in 2011.

For condo apartments, eight units have sold for at least $900,000 so far in 2012, compared to five units last year.

Zone C, which roughly covers southwest Calgary, paced the city in condo sales last month with 385. The zone also saw the highest average resale price at $322,204. It also paced the city in inventory with 1,016 available units.

Located in Zone C, Connaught topped all Calgary communities in May with 49 units sold. Also in Zone C, Springbank Hill had the highest average price at $571,200.

A distant second to Zone C’s sales totals in May was Zone A, which roughly corresponds to northwest Calgary. It saw 189 sales at an average resale value of $295,682.

Zone D, which roughly covers southeast Calgary was third in sales totals last month with 69 at an average resale value of $263,609.

The slowest area of the city for condo sales was Zone B, which roughly covers northeast Calgary. It had 32 sales at an average price of $170,893. The community with the lowest average price in the city was Forest Lawn at $88,000.

With the new day comes new strength and new thoughts. Eleanor Roosevelt

Calgary’s new condo market emerging from economic downturn
Sales increasing for new projects
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald March 6, 2012

CALGARY — Calgary’s new residential condominium market is in the early days of a recovery from the 2008 economic downturn, says a new housing report by AltusGroup.

The report said new condo apartment sales had plummeted in Calgary with the recent economic crisis and stayed low through 2010, but the market turned around in 2011.

New condo apartment sales in Calgary more than doubled in 2011 to just under 2,500 units, up from just over 1,100 units in 2010.

The report said a large number of new project launches boosted the number of units in projects on the market at year-end to about 8,000 units, up 26 per cent from a year earlier, split almost evenly between low-rise and highrise buildings.

“The weakness in the Calgary market in 2008-2010 was at least in part due to the exit of investors,” said the report. “However, improving economic conditions and lower vacancies are attracting investors back into the market.”

TIME FOR TAKE OFF

Move over Toronto, Calgary’s condo market about to take off in 2012
Garry Marr
Financial Post Mar 2, 2012

A new report suggests Toronto’s condominium market may have finally peaked in 2011 but Calgary’s may be just catching fire.

The report from real estate research firm Altus Group notes new condominium sales climbed more than 100% in 2011 from a year earlier in the oilpatch.

“New condominium apartment sales in Calgary had plummeted with the recent economic crisis and stayed low in 2010. However, the market turned in 2011,” says Altus, in its report. Sales of new condominiums climbed from 1,100 in 2010 t0 2,500 in 2011.

Altus says the number of unsold units was steady from the end of 2010 as new projects saw strong initial sales. The group says improved economic conditions and lower rental vacancies are attracting investors back into the market.

“The weakness in the Calgary market from 2008-2010 was at least in part due to the exit of investors,” says Altus.

Meanwhile, Toronto has to deal with a large potential supply of new condominiums in the pipeline. RealNet Canada says more than 79,000 condominium apartments were under construction or in pre-construction in the greater Toronto area at the end of 2011.

“Planned occupancies extend as far as 2016,” Altus says, noting it takes about five years for all units released for sale in any given year to be completed.

Even if half of those condos under construction become rentals, that would add 40,000 units to the supply of condo apartments, meaning demand for rental would have to increase by 8,000 units per year to maintain current vacancy levels.

“While this was achieved last year it is more than double the average annual growth,” says Altus, adding government plans are encouraging condos as a percentage of new home sales.

The issue in Toronto remains whether rental levels can be maintained for investor-owned apartments, although a portion of investors are said to be off-shore buyers with less concern about their returns in the short-term and medium term.

“Looking ahead our expectation is that GTA new condominium apartment sales peaked in 2011, and more moderate sales levels will emerge over the next few years,” says Altus. “In Calgary, there is a potential for further improvement in sales during this cycle.”

SOME LIKE IT HOT!

More mortgage rules planned if housing market gets too hot
Garry Marr
Financial Post Jan 23, 2012

A new round of mortgage rules from Ottawa could include tough new measures for calculating how the self-employed qualify for loans and tighten regulations for condominium buyers, according to two separate sources.

Ottawa remains concerned about the possibility of an inflated housing market and wants to crack down on the practice where consumers self-disclose what they make when applying for a loan. In the case of the condominium buyer, the government continues to consider a proposal that would have 100% of condo fees count when assessing how much debt a consumer could afford.

“None of this is happening just yet. The housing market has slowed down and the government wants to see what will happen next,” said one source. “If the spring market picks up, then we will see more changes to the rules.”

Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said Sunday that some parts of the Canadian real estate market are “probably overvalued” and policymakers are monitoring to see if further steps are needed to cool it.

“We see that in a number of real estate markets in Canada, valuations are at a minimum, firm; in others, they’re probably overvalued. So there are risks there. We’re watching it closely. We’re working with our partners, the federal government, the superintendent of financial institutions,” he said in an interview broadcast on Sunday on CTV.

” Measures have been taken. They’ve been effective. We’ll keep up that vigilance. If more needs to be done, I’m sure the appropriate authorities will take those measures.”

Stated-income products have become very popular during this housing boom, allowing more banks to get involved in loaning to the selfemployed.

“These are individuals that are self-employed, have great credit and won’t be able to validate their ability to pay if they are not showing their income on their notice of assessment,” said one source.

He says those people with stated income could have to make an even higher down payment than the normal 20% that exempts consumers from buying expensive mortgage default insurance.

The source said some self-employed are qualifying for loans based on the assumption they have a lot of write offs, like car payments and housing costs associated with home office costs.

“They get to include that based on the assumption that self-employed people have an advantage from a tax perspective,” said the source. “The government is trying to figure how they would present this.”

A source with one of the banks said the government is trying “zoom in” on marginal borrowers so it doesn’t get into a U.S. type of situation where they were not verifying income.

“What banks are doing usually when it comes with self-employment is not dealing with declared income because nobody believes it. What they do is look at their behaviour and put more weight on it,” said the source, referring to how those consumers handle their debt. “With an employer, you can call and verify their income.”

The labour market is roughly about 13% self-employed so new rules could have a major impact but the source indicated it does not mean those people would be shut out of the loan market. “It will be just more difficult for them. You are going to have to prove income in a more precise way,” he said.

The suggestion the government might crack down on condo buyers is not new, having been scrapped last year in favour of tougher new rules on amortization lengths and refinancings. Most people in the real estate sector now believe amortizations will be reduced to 25 years after having been as long as 40 just three years ago.

Brad Lamb, a Toronto real estate broker and condo developer, has heard the government is again considering including 100% of condo fees in calculating debt levels but doesn’t think it will happen.

“The 25 year amortization is a no brainer, they should do it,” said Mr. Lamb. “It’s not smart to have loose lending rules. But the condo market is hot because of investors not speculators. These investors are coming [from around the globe]. This silly [condo fee] change will do nothing. These people are buying with cash.”

Photo By: Todd Klassy

THE LOGICAL SONG

Housing market to continue to defy logic
Garry Marr
Financial Post,  Dec. 6, 2011

Even one of Canada’s leading real estate companies agrees the rising housing market may not appear to make much sense.

But appearances are deceiving and Re/Max says both sales and average prices will continue to climb in 2012.

“Canadian residential real estate defied conventional logic and outperformed expectations in 2011,” the company said in its year-end report on the market.

Re/Max expects 2011 to finish with prices up 7% and the average home across the country selling for $363,000. The market won’t be as robust in 2012 but consumers can still expect another 2% jump in prices.

Sales figure for 2011 are forecast to climb by 3% from a year earlier with 460,000 homes having changed hands by year end. For 2012, expect less than a 1% increase in activity with only an additional 4,500 sales.

“The Canadian housing market has demonstrated tremendous resilience in recent years but 2011 stands out,” said Michael Polzler, executive vice-president of Re/Max Ontario-Atlantic Canada. “Instead of responding to economic concerns both here and abroad with a retreat in sales and prices, residential real estate markets actually experienced an upswing in the volatile third and fourth quarter.”

Re/Max looked at 26 markets across the country and predicts 23 will show an increase in average price for the year. Sales were up in 22 of those 26 markets. The company says 81% of markets studied will see price increases in 2012.

Among the reasons cited for the Canadian housing market’s continued strength against the odds has been population growth which has gone up by 11% since 2000. Re/Max notes by 2031, the country will have 42 million people.

“Population growth and immigration are major factors expected to prop-up housing demand and household formation in the coming years,” says the company.

Condominiums are expected to continue to garner a growing share of the housing market with investment and income-producing properties in high demand. Low vacancy rates are said to have driven those markets in 2011 and those conditions are expected to continue.

Photo By: Bru76

A NOTABLE MENTION!

GTA condo sales this year smash record
Garry Marr
Financial Post Nov 22, 2011

Condominium sales are taking over the Greater Toronto Area new housing market and some parts of the country are following closely behind as rising costs push consumers into vertical housing, a new report suggests.

The Building Industry and Land Development Association said there were 23,747 condo sales in the Greater Toronto Area through the first 10 months of the year, smashing the previous high of 22,316 in 2007 — with two months yet to go.

High-rise sales accounted for approximately 61% of all sales in GTA from January-October. At this point last year high-rise sales only accounted for 57% of the overall market.

“It’s very much becoming a condo market,” said Joe Vaccaro, acting president of BILD. “Ten years ago the split was 25% high-rise versus 75% low-rise.”

The trend appears contained not just to Toronto’s urban core but is now moving to the suburbs. “There seems to be a new trend setting in over the last couple of months with the 905 [suburban] areas outperforming Toronto when it comes to [condo] sales,” said Mr. Vaccaro.

Suburban land costs have skyrocketed because of what the industry refers to as regulatory inertia with no new land developments approved in the suburbs over the last five years. It has led to the hoarding of land and rising prices for single detached homes.

A report Tuesday from Altus Group suggests the GTA will not see any sort of slowdown in new condo construction in 2012.

“New condominium apartment sales in Toronto and Ottawa continue to hum along, which will continue to buoy apartment starts in Ontario through 2012,” said Altus.

Peter Norman, chief economist for the Altus Group, says population growth has supported the Toronto condominium market. “That number of people generates a fair amount of housing demand no matter what is happening,” says Mr. Norman. “Add in the interest rate environment, and them not going up, and that adds to it. There has been a restriction on [new] lots and a lot of people have been shoved into apartments.”

The group looked at 10 real estate markets across the country and found only Alberta is set to rise in 2012. Regina, along with Toronto, is forecast for flat sales.

“Calgary and Edmonton employment growth in 2011 has more than made up for 2010’s declines,” says Altus. “Although employment growth will be more moderate in 2012, the strong showing this year is favourable for stronger housing starts in 2012.”

Altus is forecasting apartment starts to jump to 5,475 in 2012, up from 3,975 in 2011. Single family construction is also forecast to jump to 22,325 in 2012 from 20,906, putting high-rise construction at almost 20% of the Alberta market.

Phil Soper, chief executive of Royal LePage Real Estate Services Inc., says his company has noticed the trend in top condominium apartments in its corporate owned franchises in Toronto and Vancouver. “There is the cost of the commute, the hard costs like gas and insurance but then there is the soft costs in time,” he said, noting consumers look for housing that is closer to subways and urban cores.

If anything, he says Canadian cities, including Toronto, are playing catchup when it comes to high-rise construction. “Look at big established mature cities like New York. They have much more vertical living per resident than we do, they just don’t have as much on per capita basis that is new,” says Mr. Soper. “We have hundred of thousands of new Canadians that have to be accommodated in Toronto.”

Photo By: Surrealplaces

APARTMENT SALES ENLARGEMENT

Mondo condo sales for 2011
Lisa Van De Ven,
National Post, Sept. 10, 2011

If you ask Ben Myers, 25,000 is the magic number. There may still be a few months left of 2011, but Mr. Myers, executive vicepresident and editor at real estate research firm Urbanation, already has his forecast for the year. He expects there will be 25,000 new condominium sales by the end of 2011. If he's right, it'll be a new record, surpassing 2007's previous record of about 22,500 new condo sales.

"We're certainly on pace to have the most condominium sales in any one year in 2011," Mr. Myers says. And with the Toronto new-condo market coming off a busier-than-normal summer and a record-setting second quarter, he's not surprised.

Urbanation recently released its second-quarter results. From April to June, Mr. Myers says, 9,455 new condo units were sold in the Toronto CMA. That's a record in itself; the previous best quarter was 2007's second quarter, when 6,997 units were sold. That wasn't the only Q2 number to be beat, though. The quarter also set records for the number of active projects, the number of active units, the number of new condominium launches and the number of projects and units under construction.

"There was a huge number of new projects coming on line," Mr. Myers says. "And surprisingly, even with all of this extra supply, they had the highest absorption rate ever of new product. Even in the face of all this additional supply, they sold better than any other new release that we had in a quarter."

But Mr. Myers is quick to dispel any talk that the Toronto market might be in the middle of a real estate bubble. Prices, he says, have remained "pretty consistent" over the past five years, with 7% to 9% increases in the new condo market from year to year.

"A bubble is characterized by rapid increases in prices, and we haven't seen that," he says. "That's the type of thing you obviously saw in the United States and you even saw in Calgary a few years ago, where you saw 20% and 25% increases year over year, and in our market in the '80s where we saw prices double in three years."

Developers, he says, have been doing their homework and "setting fairly moderate pricing." They're also, it seems, paying less attention to the sales seasons of the past. Whereas spring and fall are still the prime selling times, more developers decided to release their projects in the summer this year. Since the market is being driven by investors more than ever, Mr. Myers says, there was less need to wait out the summer season, when end users are typically on holiday and less focused on condo buying.

According to the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD, using data provided by RealNet Canada), 1,490 new condo units were sold throughout the Greater Toronto Area in July, up almost 20% from last year. "Forget the old conventions of a spring and fall market," says Stephen Dupuis, BILD's president and CEO. "The market's that much bigger now - it's active all the time."

Photo By: GalleryLoftsCA

GOTTEN GAINS

Condo market gains strength
By Kathy McCormick, Calgary Herald
August 6, 2011

The story of the resale condo market in Calgary is positive, albeit fragile, say some of the city's realtors.

For the first time since April 2010, sales of resale condos have gone up year-overyear - and in terms of new condos, several inner-city highrise projects that were in limbo have been brought back to the market.

For April 1 to the end of June, sales of resale condos reached 1,617 within the city.

The Calgary Real Estate Board's Zone C - which roughly corresponds to the city's southwest and includes the Beltline - posted the most sales from April 1 to the end of June at 881.

Not surprisingly, the busiest communities during that period were in the innercity neighbourhoods of Connaught with 95 sales and Victoria Park with 50 sales.

"Condo sales bounced back this month (in July) and we now have less than four months of supply on the market," says Sano Stante, president of the Calgary Real Estate Board. "Stronger condo sales, combined with a decline in inventory, will lend more balance to this market in the months to come."

The key, though, is prices, says Marlene Swinton of Real Estate Professionals Inc.

"Buyers today are extremely nervous and a lot of them come in well below list price," she says.

"A lot of sellers, on the other hand, haven't recognized that prices have changed. They don't want to hear that the marvellous prices they heard they could get for their place once isn't there anymore."

That resonates with Chris Zaharko of Royal LePage Foothills. "My gut feeling is that people are only in the position to buy and pursue it if they think it's the absolute bottom line."

Prices during the second quarter of the year averaged anywhere from $77,600 for five sales in Forest Lawn in the board's Zone B - which roughly corresponds to northeast Calgary - to $850,000 for one sale in Bayview in Zone C.

But overall, affordability was key. A total of 30 communities within Calgary had average sale prices under $200,000 - with more buyers purchasing condos under that price range this year compared to last year during the same period.

"Buyers in this market expect value and many are taking advantage of some affordable buys in both the single-family and condo markets," says Stante.

He expects this fall to be more active. "I think as the inventory is absorbed, more particularly in condos, the shift will be to sellers and there will be slight increases in price."

Swinton, who has a condo apartment building of 11 units among her portfolio of properties for sale, says she had three calls for showings for that development on the last weekend of Stampede - traditionally a very slow time for real estate transactions.

"It was priced well and a good product, but still, that is investors looking to buy, so that's positive."

Zaharko, too, points to the new condo market where several highrise developers are starting marketing or re-starting projects that had been on hold during the downturn in the inner city.

"The big developers are coming back to the table," he says.

"They've got their pulse on the market, and see what the oil and gas industry will be doing in the next couple of years. The timing is right to start now."

Typically, a highrise project can take two years or more for construction to be complete.

Zone C, which is mostly southwest Calgary and the inner-city neighbourhoods in the Beltline, was not surprisingly the most active for resale condos in the second quarter.

It also had the highest average price and highest median price at $317,301 and $285,000 respectively. The median price is the mid-point of all sales.

Overall, most condos took an average of 54.5 days to sell - but if it's the right product at the right price in the right location, it will sell quickly.

A $835,000 condo in Eagle Ridge in Zone C, for example, sold in just nine days during that period; another condo in Citadel in Zone A went for $440,000 in just four days.