AT WAR

Calgary homebuyers return to housing market bidding wars
BMO report says Canadians willing to pay more to get what they want
BY MARIO TONEGUZZI, 
CALGARY HERALD MARCH 5, 2014

CALGARY - Prospective Canadian homebuyers are more willing to enter into a bidding war this year for properties they want to purchase, says a new report released Wednesday by BMO.

And Calgary’s hot housing market is proving to be a good example of that as nearly 20 per cent of MLS residential sales in the city in February were for above list price.

The BMO Home Buying Report said 34 per cent of Canadians are willing to enter a bidding war when it’s time to buy a home, an increase of six points, or 21 per cent, from a year ago.

The report, conducted by Pollara, said that in major city centres, the appetite for competitive bids is the highest in Toronto and Vancouver (44 per cent and 41 per cent respectively). In Calgary, it is 38 per cent and in Alberta, it is 30 per cent.

“While many suspect bidding wars are triggered by sellers who deliberately price their homes below market, the report shows that just 15 per cent of owners have that motivation, with those on the Prairies and in Toronto the most likely to pursue this strategy - but even then the numbers are modest at 24 per cent and 22 per cent respectively,” said BMO, which says average home prices across Canada continue to rise, gaining momentum in the past year, with the average transaction price up nearly 10 per cent year-over-year in January. The average home sale price in Canada is currently just over $400,000.

“Calgary’s market continues to see the strongest fundamentals; Vancouver has rebounded from a soft patch; while Toronto’s market remains relatively balanced overall, though the condo market is more amply supplied,” said Robert Kavcic, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets, in a statement. “Overall, sales are expected to hold relatively steady in the year ahead, with price growth in the low single-digit range, below the rate of income growth.”

Laura Parsons, mortgage expert with BMO Bank of Montreal, said the competition for real estate in Canada, particularly in hotter markets, can be fierce and turn into an emotional frenzy.

“A shortage of inventory is driving a lot of it,” said Parson of the Calgary market. “It’s such an emotional thing. When you see it, you get it. I remember the days when there were lineups of people behind each other. The minute you see that your heart starts to race and you want to not lose.

“Lots of people are prepared. They know what their high is . . . Calgary has the biggest income so we’re willing to spend more if we have to and hopefully we’ve been conservative before we go in and we know we have that room to bid higher.”

Parsons said many people don’t understand that they can renovate a home and build it into the purchase price.

For some people, she said, there’s a need to move before spring and they’re feeling the pressure.

Data released Monday by the Calgary Real Estate Board indicates all-time records, for any month, were set in February in the average city sale price ($482,530) and the median city price ($424,900) as well as in the single-family sale price ($550,312) and the single-family median price ($480,000).

“Calgary has been in a statistical sellers’ market since February 2013,” said Robyn Moser, a realtor with CIR Realty. “As time has passed, the sellers’ market has become increasingly aggressive. This has caused buyers to see lower and lower levels of inventory, placed into competing offers and homes selling in days if not hours. This cause is speculated to be the lack of available new home inventory due to Calgary sewer lines that are needing to be upgraded. This has placed metro Calgary real estate values into statistical unsustainable levels until the sewer line upgrade is complete.”

According to CREB, as of Tuesday, there were 2,893 active MLS listings in the city which was down 20.15 per cent from a year ago. Year-to-date, sales have increased by 11.77 per cent to 3,551 transactions.

Mike Fotiou, associate broker with First Place Realty, said Calgarians were so determined to buy a home in February that nearly one in five paid above the asking price.

“Of the 1,854 properties that sold during the month, 364 or 19.6 per cent of buyers paid higher than list price. Compare that to the 10.4 per cent of buyers from a year ago or the 6.1 per cent from February 2012 that paid above asking,” Fotiou wrote on his blog.

“As sales rise and inventory continues to decrease year-over-year, it’s to be expected that buyers will find themselves in more situations where multiple offers are involved.”

AGE AND CONDO DEMAND

Condo demand stronger among older Canadians: BMO
Business News Network May 30, 2013

Think the condo market is a young man's game? Think again, a report from BMO says the demand among potential homebuyers for purchasing a condo is greater for Canadians over the age of 50.

Among prospective buyers over the age 50, about 30 percent said they were willing to buy a condo over the next five years, compared to just 17 percent for Canadians under the age 50, the survey said.

The condo market in Canada's cities is also being divided into the haves and have nots, the survey noted.

In both Toronto and Calgary the appetite for buying a condo is on the rise, while demand is falling in Montreal and Vancouver.

About one-third of prospective buyers surveyed in Toronto said they were planning to buy a condo in the next five years, an increase of 11 points from a survey conducted in the fall.

In Calgary, 33 percent of buyers said they were considering purchasing a condo in that time period, up 8 percent from a previous survey.

But the story in Vancouver and Montreal is the complete opposite, with the percentage of buyers thinking of purchasing a condo falling to 28 percent from 33 percent in Vancouver and down 3 points to 24 percent in Montreal.

"Condos remain an affordable alternative to the pricey detached market in some major cities," said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. "For example, a typical Toronto condo today requires just 22 percent of a median family's income to service; Vancouver condos - while more expensive - are still affordable at 28 percent of income.

The report from BMO comes amid a debate among economists and other investors whether the country's housing market is headed for a U.S.-style crash. While many economists on Bay Street say the country is moving towards a "soft landing," a number of investors say that call is too optimistic.

The condo market in major cities such as Toronto and Vancouver, has attracted significant negative attention.

On Wednesday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in its twice-yearly Economic Outlook warned of a potential for a pullback in housing prices in Canada. The OECD said Canada is one of three countries in the 34-member group where "houses appear overvalued but prices are still rising." The Toronto condominium market is the agency's "number one concern."

While a dramatic collapse in the housing market is unlikely, Jarrey said it can't be ruled out completely.

"Nobody saw the huge decline in the United State coming either five or six years ago – not nobody, but very few – and we could be having something very similar but it's not a very likely outcome," he said.