MARCHING DOWNWARD

Calgary resale housing market sees another month of declining sales

By Mario Toneguzzi

Calgary Herald  Published on: April 1, 2015

http://calgaryherald.com/business/real-estate/calgary-resale-housing-market-sees-another-month-of-declining-sales

NEWS THAT MAY PUT A SPRING IN YOUR STEP

As mortgage rates fall, realtors anticipate boost to an already strong market
By Mario Toneguzzi 
Calgary Herald May 28, 2014 

CALGARY - Calgary’s hot housing market has received another incentive that could boost sales activity even more in the coming days.

Mortgage rates are starting to come down again right during the busy time of the year for the industry.

Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist with the Calgary Real Estate Board, said lower mortgage rates will help affordability in the local housing market.

“It can actually help mitigate some of the increases in pricing that we’ve seen in Calgary’s market,” she said. “We’ve had that price growth. We’re still more affordable than we have been for some time so that’s not really the issue per se. But when you have the mortgage rates come down, that can help especially as we’re facing rising pricing.

“We’re not in any concern of overheating our market but with new listings starting to improve this can actually help some of those people who were really on that cusp. They can get into the market.”

Scotiabank announced this week it was lowering its fixed five-year mortgage rate to 2.97 per cent and its five-year variable rate to 2.47 per cent. The rate is effective until June 7.

Investors Group recently offered a 1.99 per cent rate for a 36-month closed, variable-rate mortgage, but Scotiabank is the first of the big banks to push its fixed rate down below three per cent in recent months.

According to CREB, year-to-date until May 27, there have been 10,805 MLS sales in the city, up 13.38 per cent from the same period last year. The median price has risen by 7.03 per cent to $428,000 while the average sale price is up 5.85 per cent to $480,416.

“Housing activity in Calgary has been fairly robust supported by a variety of factors. Along with employment growth, rising incomes and strong net migration, relatively low mortgage rates has also contributed to the demand for housing,” said Richard Cho, senior market analyst in Calgary with Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. “Mortgage rates have been low for a couple of years and this has helped people, such as first-time home buyers, purchase a home.

“A decline in mortgage rates alone will not necessarily lead to an increase in sales. The decision to purchase a home often involves both personal and financial considerations.”

So far in May, MLS monthly sales in Calgary are up 17.74 per cent compared with a year ago to 2,489 transactions. New listings have also risen by 17.82 per cent to 3,756 but as of Tuesday active listings were down 5.76 per cent from the same time last year to 4,481. The median price in May of $435,000 has increased by 7.41 per cent and the average sale price is up by 5.40 per cent to $485,866.

“Will this (lower mortgage rates) affect the market in Alberta? Absolutely not. The market already is strong, the sales moving well, supply is an issue and Calgary is poised to be the hottest market in the country again this year,” said Don Campbell, senior analyst with the Real Estate Investment Network. “These lower rates will have a lot of people talking, but little or no measurable effect in this part of the world. Out East, it will as that market needs stimulus.”

Campbell said the biggest problem with some mortgages is hidden in the restrictive terms. These low rates will spark increased traffic to the banks, but consumers must be wary before signing asthe penalties and restrictions are often prohibitive, he added.

“Spring is prime fishing season in Calgary, and not just for trout. With the recent surge of new listings, I think we’re seeing a little fishing from sellers, too,” said Scott Bollinger, broker with ComFree Commonsense Network. “Sellers are recognizing the main market factors — good economy, strong housing price gains, tight inventory, seriously low average-days-on-market — and some seem to be fishing for their price rather than settling for market price. They’re trolling the waters for motivated buyers, and my advice to these buyers is: do your homework and stick to a neighbourhood’s comparable numbers to avoid taking the bait.

“Calgary buyers are smart. They know when cheap money is cheap money. And sub-three per cent five-year fixed rates are cheap. It’ll only add fuel to the hot housing market. The open question is: how much and for how long? Will Calgarians see this as a temporary phenomenon, flock to the banks, and boost the market in the short term? Or will they see it a longer-term trend and bide their time, which would reduce the urgency and the immediate impact on the market? Either way, the rates give motivated and qualified Calgarians more purchasing power in what’s still a relatively affordable market. I think that points to steady price gains throughout 2014.”

AYE AYE

Buoyant economy fueling Calgary condo growth
Sales and new construction expected to rise in next two years
By Mario Toneguzzi 
Calgary Herald April 2, 2014 

CALGARY - Calgary’s buoyant economy, healthy population growth and excellent affordability will keep sales of existing condominiums rising over the next few years, says a new housing report released Wednesday.

The latest Conference Board of Canada condo report, released by Genworth Canada, said good demand will also lift condo starts in the city following a pullback in 2013 that was at least partly due to flooding in the summer.

The Winter 2014 Metropolitan Condo Outlook forecast Calgary to see the best growth in prices this year, for eight cities studied, for the resale condo market with median prices rising by 3.2 per cent to $260,523.

The report said they will rise a further 3.4 per cent in 2015 to $269,508.

“A strong economy is first and foremost and everything kind of spins off that,” said Robin Wiebe, senior economist at the Centre for Municipal Studies at the conference board, of the reasons for the optimism in the Calgary market. “When the economy is strong, people come there, come out for work, and that sets in motion the whole housing chain. Starts and resales and all the rest of it.”

The report forecast resale apartment condo sales would be up 2.9 per cent this year to 4,507 units and increase by 2.1 per cent next year to 4,601 units.

Wiebe said affordability in Calgary is a factor. The city has the highest average household income among the report’s eight cities and Calgary’s apartments are not particularly expensive with a median price below Montreal, Toronto, Ottawa, Victoria and Vancouver.

“That makes housing affordability in Calgary excellent,” he said.

The report forecast new condo apartment starts of 2,601 this year, up 6.9 per cent, followed by 2,680 in 2015, up by 3.0 per cent.

It said 2013’s absorptions of 2,772 was the most since 2008 “and likely would have been even stronger were it not for the floods.”

“Accordingly, the inventory of newly completed and unoccupied apartments fell to 244 units - a marked improvement from inventories of nearly 600 units in 2010. Absorptions are forecast to pull back in 2014, but remain strong at nearly 2,400 units,” said the report.

“Modest absorption gains during the medium term are forecast to keep trimming inventories - they will dip below their 20-year average in the projection’s outer years. Falling inventories will give builders the confidence to boost housing starts.”

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, condo apartment MLS sales in the resale market totaled 1,062 after the first quarter. Sales growth was strongest in this sector due to the availability of listings, it said. New listings after the first quarter totaled 1,722, an 18 per cent increase over the previous year. While demand continued to outpace listing growth, keeping market conditions relatively tight, inventory levels are similar to the previous year, said the board.

“Nearly 50 per cent of new listings in the apartment sector are priced in the range of $200,000 - $299,999, providing options for those looking for affordable product,” said Bill Kirk, CREB’s president.

For the first quarter of this year, the average MLS sale price for condo apartments in Calgary is $317,855, up 9.03 per cent from the same period last year.

“Some easing of the supply pressure in the condominium market is expected as new construction projects are completed,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB’s chief economist. “However, thanks to Calgary’s strong economy, it is expected that most new supply can be absorbed without risk of oversupply and condominium price correction.”

Photo By: Toni Holopainen

A BIG HIKE

Calgary house price growth outpacing rest of Canada
9.6% annual hike for repeat home sales to record level
BY MARIO TONEGUZZI 
CALGARY HERALD MARCH 12, 2014

CALGARY - Calgary’s housing market continues to shine compared with the rest of the country as local residental real estate prices showed the highest growth rate in Canada in February, according to a report released Wednesday on repeat home sales.

Calgary prices rose by 9.6 per cent year-over-year and by 1.1 per cent month-over-month - both the best in the country and to an all-time high for the city, said the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index.

Nationally, of 11 centres surveyed, prices were up 5.0 per cent from last year and by 0.3 per cent from January.

The index is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation.

The trend in price increases in Calgary does not appear to be changing in March. According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, so far this month from March 1-11, the average MLS sale price in the city is up 5.28 per cent from the same time a year ago to $480,345 while the median price has increased by 7.25 per cent to $429,000. CREB stats indicate there have been 796 MLS sales so far this month, up 10.71 per cent from last year but new listings are down 4.05 per cent to 1,114 and active listings are off by 18.80 per cent to 3,049.

The Teranet-National Bank report said that for the second month in a row, prices for Canada as a whole rose to an all-time high, though new records were set in only two of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed - Vancouver (for a fourth straight month) and Calgary (for the first time since September 2007).

The gain from a year earlier was well above the cross-country average in two of the 11 markets, Calgary and Vancouver (7.7 per cent). It was slightly above the average in Toronto (6.1 per cent) and Edmonton (5.3 per cent), equal to the average in Hamilton (5.0 per cent) and below it in Winnipeg (3.5 per cent) and Montreal (1.9 per cent).

In Halifax (4.7 per cent) and Ottawa-Gatineau (0.6 per cent), prices were down from a year earlier for a second consecutive month. In Victoria (3.4 per cent), home prices have been down from a year earlier for 12 months now. Quebec City posted its first 12 month deflation in 15 years (2.0 per cent). It is the first time since October 2009 that there is price deflation in at least four of the regions covered, said the report.

“In February the east-west dichotomy became more pronounced than ever,” it said.

Home prices were up from the month before in all five markets of Western Canada - Calgary, Vancouver and Victoria (0.9 per cent), Edmonton (0.6 per cent) and Winnipeg (0.5 per cent). The rise in Victoria ended a run of four consecutive monthly declines. For Vancouver it was the 10th consecutive monthly increase. In the six markets of central and eastern Canada, the only monthly rise was in Montreal (0.7 per cent), the second advance after six months of flat or declining prices. Prices were down 0.1 per cent in Toronto, making February the fourth month without a gain in the last six. For Ottawa-Gatineau (0.8 per cent) it was the sixth decline in a row, for Quebec City (1.7 per cent) the sixth in seven months. For Halifax (1.7 per cent) it was the third decline in a row, said the report.

SALE PRICE JUMP

Calgary repeat home sale prices rise 7.1%
Second biggest jump in Canada behind Vancouver’s 7.5%
By Mario Toneguzzi 
Calgary Herald February 12, 2014

CALGARY - Calgary had the second best year-over-year growth rate in prices for repeat home sales in January, according to the latest Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index released Wednesday.

It said Calgary’s annual increase was 7.1 per cent which was behind only Vancouver’s 7.5 per cent.

The national composite, of 11 major centres surveyed, rose by 4.5 per cent.

The index is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation.

Toronto saw an annual increase of 5.8 per cent.

Sonny Scarfone, economic analyst with TD Economics, said the index surprised on the upside with a larger gain in momentum than expected across the country.

“Home price gains are still exceeding income growth by a considerable margin, especially in larger real estate markets like Toronto and Vancouver. A low supply of new listings is an important contributor to the upward pressure on prices,” said Scarfone.

“However, as U.S. and Canadian economic growth accelerates and the Federal Reserve continues to taper its quantitative easing program, North American bond yields are likely to rise over time and this will be reflected in mortgage rates. As a consequence, the current stronger-than-expected prices are likely to soften over the medium term.”

The index nationally rose 0.4 per cent from December to an all-time high. It was the largest monthly rise in five months.

The gain from a year earlier exceeded the cross-country average in four of the 11 markets: Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto and Hamilton (5.1 per cent). It was close to the average in Edmonton (4.4 per cent) and Winnipeg (3.9 per cent). It was minimal in Montreal (0.8 per cent) and Quebec City (0.6 per cent). Prices were down from a year earlier in Victoria (5.7 per cent), Halifax (2.9 per cent) and Ottawa-Gatineau (0.6 per cent). The 12-month decline was a first for Ottawa-Gatineau, the 11th straight for Victoria and the fourth in six months for Halifax, said the report.

On a monthly basis, price increases were led by Vancouver (1.1 per cent), Toronto (0.5 per cent) and Quebec City (0.5 per cent) led the composite index. Calgary equalled it. Hamilton prices were up 0.3 per cent, Winnipeg and Montreal prices 0.2 per cent. Edmonton was flat on the month. Prices fell 0.3 per cent in Victoria, 1.1 per cent in Ottawa-Gatineau and 1.7 per cent in Halifax. The January rises in Montreal and Quebec City interrupted runs of five consecutive monthly declines. For Ottawa-Gatineau it was the fifth straight monthly decline, for Victoria the fourth and for Halifax the second. For Vancouver it was a ninth straight monthly rise, for the composite index the 10th in 11 months, said the report.

“There are signs that national house price inflation is close to peaking. The earlier strength in existing home sales, triggered by fears of higher mortgage rates, has begun to fade,” said David Madani, economist with Capital Economics. “January’s preliminary data reported by the regional real estate boards indicate that national home sales declined for a fourth consecutive month.

“The drop back in the months’ supply of inventory is already consistent with annual house price growth rate remaining around 4.0 per cent. If we are correct about home sales drifting lower this year, it will once again start to put downward pressure on house price inflation.”

FAVOURING THE SELLER

Calgary housing market soaring with sales and price hikes
Strong sellers’ conditions as listings down
By Mario Toneguzzi 
Calgary Herald November 1, 2013

Calgary’s resale housing market continued to soar in October with strong year-over-year hikes in both sales and prices.

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, MLS sales of 1,953 for the month were up 17.72 per cent from a year ago as the average sale price rose five per cent to $458,876 while the median price saw an increase of 5.96 per cent to $409,000.

“The October Calgary real estate market kept a consistent absorption rate between two to 2.2 months worth of inventory. This places us in a strong sellers’ market,” said Robyn Moser, a realtor with CIR Realty in the city.

“Attributes of a sellers’ market are, competing offers, listed home selling in the first two weeks or sooner, sellers being able to dictate the terms of the negotiations and not having to settle for much less than realistic asking prices. All consistent with our October experiences.”

Although new listings for the month were up 9.08 per cent to 2,522, active listings at the end of the month were down 16.19 per cent to 3,841.

The average days on the market to sell a property dropped from 45 a year ago to 40 in October.
Moser said housing activity in Calgary may be fuelled by a number of factors: seasonal fall peak activities with people wanting to purchase and move into homes before winter sets in; investor speculators coming into the market due to the flood impact in June; corporations reorganizing and centralizing back to Calgary and Edmonton; and rental rates increasing.

“Buyers had to react to this market by acting quickly when homes came available for sale, being prepared to pay asking price or above and ensuring they were prequalified and prepared for condition days of seven days or less in order to get their offers accepted,” said Moser.

Sales and prices were up across all housing categories in the city during the month.

In the single-family home market, there were 1,336 MLS sales, up 14.29 per cent from last year with the average sale price increasing by 4.76 per cent to $516,244 and the median price rising by 5.12 per cent to $452,000.

The condo apartment category saw sales rise by 24.35 per cent to 337. The average sale price was up 6.76 per cent to $309,415 and the median price rose by 8.80 per cent to $272,000.

In the condo townhouse market, sales of 280 were up 27.85 per cent with the average price rising by 13.49 per cent to $365,037 and the median price up by 8.29 per cent to $319,450.

The towns surrounding Calgary saw sales jump by 22.04 per cent to 382 with the average price increasing by 10.54 per cent to $380,350 and the median price up 8.11 per cent to $360,000.

“Price growth and tighter market conditions have encouraged some of the recent rise in new listings,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist at the real estate board. “This is a trend worth noting as the rise is easing some of the tightness in the market. Despite some movement, sellers’ market conditions persist.”

Employment growth, strong net migration, lack of rental product and low mortgage rates have contributed to the rise in housing demand over the past two years, she said.

“Meanwhile, supply levels have not kept pace, causing prices to push up,” added Lurie.

HIGH IN THE SKY APPLE PIE

Calgary condo market booming with high sales growth

New condo sales at strongest levels since 2006

BY MARIO TONEGUZZI

CALGARY HERALD OCTOBER 11, 2013

CALGARY — The pace of year-over-year sales growth in the resale condo market is much higher than the single-family home market this year in Calgary.

And new condo sales are also moving in an upward trend towards the strongest levels since 2006.

“Calgary’s condominium market remains resilient and in high demand with new construction being well supported demographically, exhibiting steady sales throughout the inner city and the downtown core,” said Kaitlyn Gottlieb, a realtor with Century 21 Bamber Realty Ltd. in Calgary.

“Calgary’s luxury condominium market remains immensely sought after. As Calgarians’ incomes continue to rise and our business sector attracts relocations, high-end buyers are taking advantage of the luxury condos that Calgary has to offer, boasting high-end finishes and their close proximity to the downtown core.”

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, year-to-date until October 10, MLS sales in the condo apartment category in the city were 3,253, up 14.58 per cent from the same period a year ago and the average sale price has jumped by 6.14 per cent to $298,050. In the condo townhouse category, sales of 2,600 are up 22.18 per cent from last year and the average sale price has risen by 6.60 per cent to $338,809.

The single-family home market in the city has seen sales rise by 7.36 per cent to 13,482 with the average price moving up by 8.18 per cent to $517,730.

“While the recent floods have undoubtedly impacted all sectors of Calgary’s housing market inclusive of the condominium market, as demonstrated by the increased demand for affordable housing, the overall market remains stable,” said Gottlieb.

“Steady migration, employment and population growth are major contributors as we move into the fourth quarter of the year. The relative affordability of our city’s housing market remains one of the best in Canada and we can expect to see Calgary’s condominium market continue to rise at a moderate, sustainable pace.”

A report by Altus Group says new condo sales in Calgary are at the strongest levels since 2006.

It said the new multi-family condo market has seen impressive sales in the first half of 2013 with almost 3,000 sales to start the year, an increase of 400 sales compared with the same period in 2012.

The sales pace this year is 16 per cent ahead of 2012 at mid-year and 74 per cent better than in 2011 for the same period.

“New suburban apartment and townhouse projects entering the market are primarily responsible for the strong sales results, with mid-year sales up sharply in the north and south quadrants of the city following the launch of several new projects during the Spring,” said the report. “In the downtown region, sales are generally consistent with last year’s pace, although sales activity has been more focused at projects with superior locations and faster possession timing.”

The report said the strong sales so far this year are expected to push the annual sales volume to about 5,000 units, potentially making 2013 the second strongest sales year in the past decade.

“Developers will begin to see cost pressures from higher land prices, construction cost escalations and a declining land supply in the suburban regions, while consumer activity could be impacted by the recent price growth, higher interest rates and more restrictive lending practices,” said the report.

“While home ownership will remain the goal for most consumers, the higher prices and interest rates may force some consumers to delay their purchase decision while they save for a larger down payment.”

TOO FEW

Lack of inventory fuelling price growth for Calgary housing market

Strong economy and influx of professionals

BY MARIO TONEGUZZI

CALGARY HERALD OCTOBER 10, 2013

CALGARY — A continued lack of inventory is fueling house price growth in Calgary.

The Royal LePage House Price Survey, released Thursday, shows strong year-over-year price increase in all housing types in the city as competition for homes is being driven by a strong economy and the influx of professionals.

The survey said average home prices were particularly buoyant in the third quarter with detached bungalows increasing 7.2 per cent year-over-year to $465,411, standard condominiums increasing 5.6 per cent to $263,087 and standard two-storey homes increasing 3.4 per cent to $446,411.

“A sustained period of low housing inventory coupled with a healthy economy and an influx of corporate sector workers has pushed prices up further,” said Ted Zaharko, broker/owner, Royal LePage Foothills. “For some time now too many homebuyers have been chasing too few properties.”

He said inventory is low in all categories, but particularly in detached bungalows, which are much rarer in Calgary compared to cities like Edmonton.

“Buyers are acting very quickly when homes are put up for sale, which is leading to frequent multiple offer situations on all housing types,” said Zaharko. “The aggressiveness of buyers is making it very difficult for first-time buyers to break into the market.”

He said third quarter activity was the most robust the Calgary market has seen in years, with buyers eagerly making offers on the limited inventory. In addition to normal demand, there was some extra activity coming from flood victims who were looking to move to locations on higher ground.

Nationally, the average price of a home in Canada increased between 1.2 per cent and 4.1 per cent in the third quarter of 2013.

The survey showed a year-over-year average price increase of 3.7 per cent to $418,686 for standard two-storey homes, while detached bungalows rose 4.1 per cent to $381,811. During the same period, the average price for standard condominiums saw a more moderate increase, rising 1.2 per cent to $246,530. Sales volumes surged in a number of regions, as Canadians re-entered the housing market after sitting on the sidelines for more than a year — marking the end of the most significant housing market correction since the 2008-2009 global recession, said Royal LePage.

Early signs in October indicate Calgary’s housing market is continuing its trend of increased sales and prices.

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, month-to-date up to Wednesday, there have been 624 MLS sales in the city, up 37.14 per cent from the same period last year. The average sale price has increased by 7.82 per cent to $460,509 while the median price is up 6.96 per cent to $415,000.

New listings of 850 have risen by 10.10 per cent but active listings are down by 22.73 per cent to 3,927. Average days on the market to sell have also dropped by 6.52 per cent to 43 days.

“Prices are continuing to climb because of supply and demand. We have significant demand and we have across the board limited supply regardless of the price ranges. There is not a substantial variety to choose from and in some cases, such as in the case of bungalows, there has been a short supply in Calgary and new listings often get multiple offers,” said Rachelle Starnes, a realtor with Royal LePage Foothills in Calgary.

“In support of this statement, we are seeing in the Royal LePage offices more quick sales and multiple offers in the last quarter than previous quarters. The buyers are anxious and know that once a new listing comes onto the market, they need to act quickly. Having said that, there are still good listings sitting on the market that are a puzzle as to why they are not getting the proper activity. We just listed a property in the community of Bel Aire this week that will sell for a minimum of 10 per cent more than before the flooding occurred and may even see multiple offers at the higher price. Prices in the higher ground areas are escalating with the higher demand in the central areas of the City.”

Photo By: tommaync

BALLOONING SALES

Calgary and Vancouver lead Canadian housing market boom
August MLS sales balloon

By Mario Toneguzzi 

Calgary Herald September 16, 2013

CALGARY — Strong sales in Calgary and Vancouver led to a Canadian housing market boom in August as MLS transactions across the country were up 11.1 per cent compared with a year ago, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

In releasing its national data on Monday, CREA said sales in Vancouver were up 53.1 per cent from last year to 2,557 while Calgary transactions rose by 28.8 per cent to 2,830.
In Canada, total MLS sales in August were 40,350.

“The year 2013 has been a very strong year for the Calgary real estate market,” said Crystal Tost, a realtor with RE/MAX Realty Professionals in Calgary. “Earlier in the year we saw the market pick up as we transitioned into a sellers’ market as a direct result of low inventory levels. The market maintained strong with low inventory right through to spring. The summer months are traditionally a bit slower than spring months, but not for 2013. The market continued on with record sales without rest as inventory levels continued a downward motion into summer months.

“There is no doubt that the flood has greatly affected the housing market in Calgary not just for sales. Workers that have flocked to the city to aid in Calgary’s rebuilding and displaced people looking for temporary housing have exhausted the inventory in the rental market and in turn we are seeing rising rental prices. The raised rental market is making it sense for some first-time buyers to enter into the market. Bank interest rates are also on the rise. We are seeing many buyers out there with great interest rate holds nearing expiration so some of those buyers will be on a time crunch to save some money in interest.”

In August, Calgary had the highest growth year-over-year in the MLS Home Price Index, which tracks typical sales in nine major Canadian centres. Calgary prices rose by 7.39 per cent compared to the national aggregate of 2.92 per cent.

As for average prices, Calgary was once again a leader with an 8.1 per cent annual hike to $432,576, while Canada saw an 8.1 per cent hike as well to $378,369.

Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist with the Calgary Real Estate Board, said the past two months have seen sales activity in the city shoot up higher than long-term trends.

“Both in July and August, those numbers were a little stronger. Part of that I think is due to the fact of the floods (in June),” said Lurie. “Because of that if you look at June we were running really in line with long-term trends — just above it. And then floods hit and in July and August we saw that activity increase. And some of that is from that demand being pulled forward.”
But other factors have also come into play in the local residential real estate market, she said, with stronger than expected migration this year.

“We still continue to have employment growth. The overall economic situation has done fairly well,” said Lurie. “That’s all the backdrop behind it as well. And wages have been increasing.”

There’s also the added possibility of increasing mortgage rates causing people to get into home ownership sooner.

In August, Alberta saw MLS sales increase by 17.8 per cent from last year to 6,124 while the average price rose by 7.1 per cent to $381,642.

On Monday, CREA also released its forecast for the rest of this year and 2014. It said Alberta MLS sales would grow by 6.2 per cent this year, the best in the country, to 64,100 and by another 2.3 per cent in 2014 to 65,600.

In Canada, sales are expected to drop by 1.0 per cent this year to 449,900 but expand by 3.5 per cent next year to $465,600.

The average sale price in Alberta is expected to rise by 4.8 per cent this year to $380,500, the second best growth rate in the country behind Newfoundland’s 6.1 per cent. Alberta is then forecast to lead the country in 2014 with 3.4 per cent growth to $393,300.

Canadian average sale prices are forecast to grow by 3.6 per cent this year to $376,300 and by another 1.7 per cent in 2014 to $382,800.

“Sales activity dropped sharply around this time last year in the wake of tightened mortgage rules and has improved since then, so a sizable year-over-year increase this August was expected,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist, about the national August sales data.

“Buyers who put off purchase decisions or who were otherwise sidelined by tighter mortgage rules and lending guidelines implemented last year were anticipated to return to the housing market. That said, the upward trend and levels for activity in recent months has been steeper than expected, but that may not last.


“Recent increases to fixed mortgage rates caused sales to be pulled forward as buyers with pre-approved financing at lower rates jumped into the market sooner than they might have otherwise. That pool of homebuyers has largely evaporated so demand may soften over the fourth quarter. The outsized year-over-year gains may persist, however, due to weak sales toward the end of last year.”

CONDO FORECAST FOR 2014

Calgary condo price and sales growth forecast for 2014
Median price hike best in Canada this year
By Mario Toneguzzi 
Calgary Herald August 28, 2013 

CALGARY — Record growth is not in the foreseeable future of the Canadian condo market, but it is also likely the sector will be able to avoid a major downturn, according to the latest Conference Board of Canada condo report released Wednesday by Genworth Canada.

The Summer 2013 Metropolitan Condo Outlook suggests population growth and employment gains will help maintain demand levels to absorb supply inventory.

Calgary starts will be hampered in the third quarter by the flooding earlier in the year, but as the “youngest” city in the survey, it is expected to enjoy the highest growth in starts and resale volumes in 2014, with price growth at a moderate level of two per cent to 3.5 per cent over the next few years, said the report.

The report forecast the median price for a resale condo apartment in Calgary will rise this year by 2.8 per cent, the highest in Canada, to $251,237 and by another 3.3 per cent in 2014 to $259,640.

However, it is forecasting sales to drop by 11.6 per cent to 3,508 units this year but rebound by 10.2 per cent in 2014 to 3,867 sales.

“Whether it’s first-time homebuyers entering home ownership, empty nesters looking to downsize or professionals seeking a shorter commute, condos appear to remain a popular option for urban Canadians,” said Brian Hurley, chairman and chief executive of Genworth Canada.

The report said economic factors affecting the housing market, such as employment, interest rates and population growth, will only undergo moderate changes. Employment is expected to rise modestly in the medium-term and interest rates are expected to increase gradually, while population expansion and demographics will continue to support demand in regional markets.

“As condo starts near past averages and inventories edge closer to demand, we are seeing the condo market stabilize both in terms of the price of existing units and the volume of new construction,” said Robin Wiebe, senior economist at the Centre for Municipal Studies at the Conference Board of Canada. “Softer prices and positive economic factors continue to make condos an affordable way for Canadians to achieve home ownership.”

The report said condo sales in Calgary had been doing well before the flood, averaging over 3,900 units at an annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013.

“Active apartment listings had tapered off, hovering below 1,000 units in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of 2013,” said the report. Still, for 2012 as a whole, active listings averaged 1,263 units, up 30 per cent from 2011. The flood has presumably damaged at least some actual or potential apartment listings. This will cut active listings in the third quarter by 10 per cent and lead to a 26 per cent decline in listings for all of 2013.

“The lower listings last autumn lifted the sales-to-active-listings ratio slightly above 35 per cent, its highest level since 2009 and likely approaching sellers’ market conditions. The ratio is forecast to stabilize near 34 per cent in the third quarter of 2013 and end the year at 31 per cent. A solidly balanced market featuring a sales-to-active-listings ratio between 33 and 35 per cent is our call for between 2014 and 2017.”

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, year-to-date until August 27, there have been 2,767 MLS condo apartment sales in the city, up 14.20 per cent from a year ago. The median price has risen by 3.60 per cent to $259,000 while the average sale price has increased by 7.01 per cent to $297,954.

STAY STRONG

Calgary MLS sales in August on pace for 2nd highest ever
August 2005 set the record
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald August 23, 2013

CALGARY — Calgary home sales are on pace for the highest August total since 2005 and the second highest on record for the month, says a Calgary realtor.

Mike Fotiou, associate broker of First Place Realty, said month-to-date between August 1-21 there have been 1,462 MLS sales in the city, up 32.4 per cent from last year.

That’s down from the 1,516 sales pace set in August 2005 for the same period. Sales ended up at 2,326 for the entire month of August in 2005.

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, for the first three weeks of August, the average sale price increased by 10.14 per cent to $456,105 and active listings of 4,089 were down 24.57 per cent.

Tanya Eklund, with RE/MAX Real Estate (Central) in Calgary, said there are so many factors that have helped the real estate market reach such impressive numbers.

“The flood did throw a wrench into things in some communities, yet we have seen other communities flourish from the flood. As long as the price of oil stays strong, the pipeline out east goes forward, the vacancy rate stays low, all of these will contribute to the continued strength in our economy,” said Eklund in a live Herald web chat on the real estate market with Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB’s chief economist and Don Campbell, senior analyst and founding partner of the Real Estate Investment Network.

“We are in a seller’s market currently I would say. I base it on number of sales versus listings and I also consider days on market. We are fairly low in inventory based on last year and our sales have increased substantially.”

Campbell said Calgary entered the year with a real estate market that was performing exactly how it should have been, based on its underlying economics.

“While the world turmoil was continuing to grow, Calgary’s economy almost felt sheltered from the storm. Economic growth, population growth, housing demand right on trend ... then the floods hit and turned the city and its market upside down,” he said.

He said, now post flood, the numbers will not be indicative of the actual underlying market and although will still look good, they won’t be reflective of how the market is really performing.

“The bottom line is this: the results of this flood will play a role in the housing numbers for at least 12 months in all cities and towns affected by it and will skew the market health readings,” he said.

Lurie said strong resale growth numbers will likely persist for much of this year, outside of the flood, as migration levels posted stronger than expected levels, supporting stronger than expected demand growth.

“The housing market will continue to benefit due to strong fundamentals, assuming the energy sector remains strong,” she said.

SHINE ON

Calgary sets record with 4 MLS sales over $4 million in one month 

Luxury home market continues to shine
By Mario Toneguzzi 

Calgary Herald July 9, 2013

CALGARY — For the first time ever, four homes priced at more than $4 million on the MLS market have sold in one month in Calgary, the Herald has learned.

The Calgary Real Estate Board has confirmed the record, which eclipsed the previous mark of two homes sold at that price point in June 2008.

In the first week of July, the sales at more than $4 million included homes in Britannia ($4.45 million), Elbow Park/Glencoe ($4 million) and Mount Royal ($4.645 million).

Then on Monday a home in Bel Aire sold for $4.45 million.

It’s another indication that the luxury home market is continuing to shine in Calgary.

According to Mike Fotiou, associate broker with First Place Realty, there have been 18 homes sold for more than $1 million in the first week of July.

Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist at CREB, said year-to-date luxury home sales represent 3.2 per cent of the total sales, up from last year’s share of 2.5 per cent.

“Consumers have more choice in luxury homes with a rise in the number of new listings in this category, helping support the sales growth,” she said. “However, more choice has contributed to median price growth in the luxury sector to be relatively weaker than city wide price growth. The median value of the sold transactions have trended up from the low of the recession and are slightly higher than levels recorded last year, however, they still remain below levels recorded during the 2007 period.

“Despite some economic setbacks, long-term economic prospects remain relatively strong in our city. Wages continue to rise while mortgage rates remain at low levels — all of which are supporting demand growth. Furthermore, the tight supply levels in the lower price ranges have reduced the time on market and supported relatively stronger price growth in this sector, potentially offering an opportunity for those consumers looking to upgrade.”

Last month, a home in Crescent Heights, listed by John Hripko, a realtor with Royal LePage Foothills, sold for $11.1 million — a new high for the Calgary MLS market. That home was owned by former Shaw executive Jim Shaw.

According to Fotiou, there were 74 luxury home sales in June, setting a record for the most $1-million plus sales for the month of June. The all-time monthly record for luxury home sales was established in May at 84.

Last year was a record of 544 luxury home sales in the city.

According to CREB, there were 394 sales of $1 million or more in the first six months of this year compared with 299 for the same period last year.

The mid-year total so far this year has already surpassed year-end totals for 2010 (365), 2009 (337), and 2008 (369), pointed out Fotiou.

Photo By: s@@m

AGE AND CONDO DEMAND

Condo demand stronger among older Canadians: BMO
Business News Network May 30, 2013

Think the condo market is a young man's game? Think again, a report from BMO says the demand among potential homebuyers for purchasing a condo is greater for Canadians over the age of 50.

Among prospective buyers over the age 50, about 30 percent said they were willing to buy a condo over the next five years, compared to just 17 percent for Canadians under the age 50, the survey said.

The condo market in Canada's cities is also being divided into the haves and have nots, the survey noted.

In both Toronto and Calgary the appetite for buying a condo is on the rise, while demand is falling in Montreal and Vancouver.

About one-third of prospective buyers surveyed in Toronto said they were planning to buy a condo in the next five years, an increase of 11 points from a survey conducted in the fall.

In Calgary, 33 percent of buyers said they were considering purchasing a condo in that time period, up 8 percent from a previous survey.

But the story in Vancouver and Montreal is the complete opposite, with the percentage of buyers thinking of purchasing a condo falling to 28 percent from 33 percent in Vancouver and down 3 points to 24 percent in Montreal.

"Condos remain an affordable alternative to the pricey detached market in some major cities," said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. "For example, a typical Toronto condo today requires just 22 percent of a median family's income to service; Vancouver condos - while more expensive - are still affordable at 28 percent of income.

The report from BMO comes amid a debate among economists and other investors whether the country's housing market is headed for a U.S.-style crash. While many economists on Bay Street say the country is moving towards a "soft landing," a number of investors say that call is too optimistic.

The condo market in major cities such as Toronto and Vancouver, has attracted significant negative attention.

On Wednesday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in its twice-yearly Economic Outlook warned of a potential for a pullback in housing prices in Canada. The OECD said Canada is one of three countries in the 34-member group where "houses appear overvalued but prices are still rising." The Toronto condominium market is the agency's "number one concern."

While a dramatic collapse in the housing market is unlikely, Jarrey said it can't be ruled out completely.

"Nobody saw the huge decline in the United State coming either five or six years ago – not nobody, but very few – and we could be having something very similar but it's not a very likely outcome," he said.

MONDO CONDO

Pace increases for condo sales
By Josh Skapin
Calgary Herald April 11, 2013

Sales of resale condos were on the upswing in March compared to a year earlier, says the Calgary Real Estate Board.

Sales climbed to 630 deals, up 6.6 per cent from 591 transactions during the same month last year.

Townhomes led the charge in sales with 283 moves after 235 units changed hands a year earlier, marking a 20 per cent change.

That came with a 10.3 per cent climb in new listings with 395 after there were 358 last March.

The apartment market, on the other hand, saw little change, easing 2.5 per cent.

“The condominium apartment market remains in balance,” says CREB chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie, in a news release.

Last month 347 apartments were sold after 356 deals during the same time in 2012.

New listings of apartments eased 13 per cent at 560 after there were 644 during the same time last year.

“While it has moved to the lower end of the spectrum, it remains better supplied than the single-family market and the majority of product available is in an affordable price range,” says Lurie.

While condo apartments dipped in sales, the benchmark price went up six per cent. The benchmark price is that of a typical home based on a formula that uses various factors to ensure accurate comparisons.

For condo apartments, the benchmark price was $257,700 last month, up six per cent from $243,000 a year earlier.

The townhome benchmark price also increased last month compared to a year earlier.

It reached $286,800 for a four per cent step up from $274,600 this time in 2012.

LUCKY SEVEN IN NOVEMBER

Calgary resale housing market sales strong in November
Sales up nearly 7% over last year
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald November 30, 2012

CALGARY — Calgary’s resale housing market continues to defy a national cooling trend.

With one day left in November, data from the Calgary Real Estate Board indicates total MLS sales and average prices during the month in the city are elevated from last year.

From November 1-29, there have been 1,390 total MLS sales, up 6.92 per cent compared with the same period a year ago and the average sale price has risen by 4.90 per cent to $433,590.

Every housing category in the city has seen strength in numbers this month.

In single-family homes, there have been 960 sales, up 3.56 per cent from last year, with the average sale price moving up by 3.93 per cent to $488,155.

The condo apartment category has experienced 245 transactions, an increase of 6.52 per cent, while the average price has risen by 22.14 per cent to $309,235.

In the condo townhouse sector, the average sale price has jumped by 3.15 per cent to $315,126 and sales are up 29.37 per cent to 185 transactions.

On Friday, the Conference Board of Canada released its regular monthly resale housing market report of major centres across Canada and it said the average year-over-year price growth for the latest three months in Calgary is between three to 4.9 per cent.

In October, the seasonally-adjusted annual rate of sales in the Calgary census metropolitan area was 27,312, up 22 per cent year-over-year while new listings of 39,864 were down 8.4 per cent.

The average residential sale price of $423,468 was up 5.5 per cent from last year.

SOARING IN APRIL

Calgary’s housing market soars in April
MLS sales up 26% from a year ago
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald May 1, 2012

CALGARY — It was a very busy April for Calgary’s housing market.

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, overall residential MLS sales in the city of 2,200 for the month were up 26.07 per cent from April 2011 and the average sale price of $429,388 increased by 1.95 per cent from last year.

Carrie Pepper was one of the many caught up in the April activity as she bought a condo in the Thorncliffe-Greenview neighbourhood.

“I wasn’t even planning on buying. I was looking for two months maybe. I found a lot of places that were good prices,” said Pepper who looked at about 10 properties.

“I didn’t want to rent because it’s so expensive. So why not buy?”

She said continued low interest rates played a role in her decision.

“That was huge. This is my first time buying. I know it’s a good time to buy right now,” added Pepper.

Apparently many others felt the same as Pepper.

In the single-family home category, CREB said sales of 1,582 were up 30.64 per cent from last year and the average sale price rose by 0.88 per cent to $483,519.

In the condo apartment category, there were 351 MLS sales, up 13.23 per cent from last year but the average sale price dipped by 5.76 per cent to $267,931.

And in the condo townhouse category, sales rose by 19.20 per cent to 267 with the average sale price increasing by 8.31 per cent to $320,912.

“What we saw in April was strong demand coupled with less good inventory. We also saw lots of multiple offers,” said Cody Battershill, a realtor in Calgary with RE/MAX House of Real Estate.

"I think that everyone’s realizing the world didn’t end and in fact on most metrics we are back to or stronger than most of the previous peaks achieved in the last cycle. Some people think we could be at the beginning of another strong positive economic cycle while others would still encourage cautious optimism. Regardless, living in Calgary means enjoying high economic growth, job growth, income growth and migration.”

He said the economic fundamentals in Calgary are strong and will be for the foreseeable future.

Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB’s chief economist, said the growth in full-time employment, combined with improving migration levels, is translating into improved demand for housing.

“While sales growth does seem exceptionally strong, it is important to keep in perspective that the sales activity in Calgary is returning to levels more consistent with the long-term average,” she said.

CREB said its MLS Home Price Index benchmark price for single-family homes was $449,500 in April, up 7.41 per cent from a year ago. The benchmark price for condo apartments was up 0.77 per cent to $248,300 and it rose by 4.58 per cent in the condo townhouse category to $294,500.

CREB says its new home price index measures how typical properties are valued in the market rather than relying on average and median prices.

It is calculated using a statistical model that estimates prices based on several factors.

In the city, total new listings in the MLS market dipped by 0.49 per cent in April to 3,238 and active listings were off by 16.67 per cent to 5,270.

“While sales activity and the level of new listings continue to remain below long-term trends, the spring market is definitely on the rise over the previous year,” said Bob Jablonski, CREB’s president. “As confidence in the local housing market continues to build, we anticipate a rise in demand, followed by improved listings from those waiting to see some price appreciation prior to listing their home.”

TELL ME A STORY

What's the real story of Canada's housing market?
Financial Post · Oct. 5, 2011

OTTAWA — Home prices rose during the third quarter of 2011, but the raw numbers may not be telling the whole story of the Canadian housing market, a new survey says.

The Royal LePage House Price Survey released Wednesday found that the average price of a home in Canada increased between 5.7% and 7.8% in the third quarter of 2011 compared with the same period last year.

The average price of a detached bungalow was $349,974, a standard two-storey home was $388,218 and a standard condominium was $239,300, according to the survey.

Royal LePage said that the rise in price defied expectations and suggested that record-low interest rates and a fairly stable Canadian economy have bolstered consumer confidence.

However, the third quarter of 2010 was a relatively weak period for housing prices, which makes the increase this year appear rosier than they are and may mask a decline in prices in the months ahead, it said.

“The strength in Canada’s national housing market conceals signs of predictable softening in some regions,” Phil Soper, president and chief executive of Royal LePage Real Estate Services, said in a statement.

“A broader slowdown is expected in the months ahead, but fears of a U.S.-style correction are completely unfounded.”

Vancouver had the highest priced homes in the country during the third quarter of 2011 and was the only city in the survey where the average bungalow or two-storey home cost more than $1 million.

Halifax, Montreal, Toronto, Saint John, N.B., and Ottawa all saw prices increase between 4.4% and 10.4%.

In Alberta, the volume of homes trading hands increased, but prices stayed soft, the survey found: Detached bungalows in Calgary fell 1% in the third quarter.

Victoria was similarly weak, with detached bungalows and standard two-storey homes falling two and 1.1% respectively.

APARTMENT SALES ENLARGEMENT

Mondo condo sales for 2011
Lisa Van De Ven,
National Post, Sept. 10, 2011

If you ask Ben Myers, 25,000 is the magic number. There may still be a few months left of 2011, but Mr. Myers, executive vicepresident and editor at real estate research firm Urbanation, already has his forecast for the year. He expects there will be 25,000 new condominium sales by the end of 2011. If he's right, it'll be a new record, surpassing 2007's previous record of about 22,500 new condo sales.

"We're certainly on pace to have the most condominium sales in any one year in 2011," Mr. Myers says. And with the Toronto new-condo market coming off a busier-than-normal summer and a record-setting second quarter, he's not surprised.

Urbanation recently released its second-quarter results. From April to June, Mr. Myers says, 9,455 new condo units were sold in the Toronto CMA. That's a record in itself; the previous best quarter was 2007's second quarter, when 6,997 units were sold. That wasn't the only Q2 number to be beat, though. The quarter also set records for the number of active projects, the number of active units, the number of new condominium launches and the number of projects and units under construction.

"There was a huge number of new projects coming on line," Mr. Myers says. "And surprisingly, even with all of this extra supply, they had the highest absorption rate ever of new product. Even in the face of all this additional supply, they sold better than any other new release that we had in a quarter."

But Mr. Myers is quick to dispel any talk that the Toronto market might be in the middle of a real estate bubble. Prices, he says, have remained "pretty consistent" over the past five years, with 7% to 9% increases in the new condo market from year to year.

"A bubble is characterized by rapid increases in prices, and we haven't seen that," he says. "That's the type of thing you obviously saw in the United States and you even saw in Calgary a few years ago, where you saw 20% and 25% increases year over year, and in our market in the '80s where we saw prices double in three years."

Developers, he says, have been doing their homework and "setting fairly moderate pricing." They're also, it seems, paying less attention to the sales seasons of the past. Whereas spring and fall are still the prime selling times, more developers decided to release their projects in the summer this year. Since the market is being driven by investors more than ever, Mr. Myers says, there was less need to wait out the summer season, when end users are typically on holiday and less focused on condo buying.

According to the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD, using data provided by RealNet Canada), 1,490 new condo units were sold throughout the Greater Toronto Area in July, up almost 20% from last year. "Forget the old conventions of a spring and fall market," says Stephen Dupuis, BILD's president and CEO. "The market's that much bigger now - it's active all the time."

Photo By: GalleryLoftsCA

NOVEMBER...WEIGHING IN

It's a tough time to sell a condo
Sales down 38% from a year ago in condo market
By Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald
December 2, 2010 8:00 AM

CALGARY - Calgary's housing market continued to show signs of stagnation in November, with MLS sales down in both the single-family home and condominium markets compared with a year ago.

The last few months have been a tough time to sell a property in the city.

Elizabeth Klein, one of those fortunate sellers in November, was able to sell her condo through Christina Hagerty, a realtor with Re/Max Realty Professionals.

Klein's condo in the Mission neighbourhood was originally listed by another realtor in April. When she re-listed the property with Hagerty at the end of August, the list price was dropped by about 5.7 per cent. It sold for about 3.6 per cent less than the new list price.

"I think we had it priced too high at the beginning," said Klein. "We were going on what the old prices were before the recession kind of kicked in and I think that is why we didn't sell it. And when Christina came along, we decided to lower the price and we were successful. With her it took us a couple of months to sell."

"There's so much on the market. A lot of new ones have come on. People have got a lot more choice," said Klein. "I'm glad that we sold it. Obviously we would have liked to have got more, but I think we were dead on the market. So I think that's why it sold. There's a lot of people out there buying. But I think there's a lot of people sitting on the fence saying OK, maybe prices might come down a wee bit more. I think that's what's happening."

Statistics released Wednesday by the Calgary Real Estate Board indicate single-family MLS sales were off by close to 19 per cent from November 2009, while the average sale price dropped by about two per cent.

In November, there were 891 single-family transactions for an average price of $455,460, while a year ago for the month there were 1,095 sales for an average of $464,444.

In October of this year, there were 888 sales for an average price of $444,744.

The condo market was particularly slow in November with only 310 sales and an average price of $284,667. Sales are down by more than 38 per cent compared with a year ago (504) while the average price has decreased by just over three per cent from $294,264.

In October of this year, there were also 310 condo transactions at an average sale price of $287,793.

"Indeed the second half of 2010 has proven to be weaker than expected and Calgary's housing market is taking some time to regain traction," said Diane Scott, president of CREB.

The month-end inventory for single-family homes for sale was 3,869 compared with 2,658 a year ago, while for condos it was 1,882 compared with 1,434 in November 2009.

Subdued employment growth, especially in the area of full-time jobs, has tempered sales activity, said Richard Cho, senior market analyst in Calgary for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.

"The average price has moderated as the housing market continues to favour the buyer. Prices are expected to firm up in the early months of next year as the economy improves, supporting job growth, while active listings decline and move to more balanced levels," Cho said.

Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial in Calgary, said the city's housing market is still adjusting to the new realities of the economy.

"While the economy has definitely improved, the housing market has lagged," he said. "There was a notable run-up in activity around a year ago when buyers were anticipating higher mortgage rates. So now, in the second half of 2010, the market of potential buyers is a bit thin. That's weighing down sales and prices."

- - -
Calgary MLS Sales

Category / November 2010 / October 2010 / November 2009
Single-family sales / 891 / 888 / 1095
Single-family average price / $455,460 / $444,744 / $464,444
Condo sales / 310 / 310 / 504
Condo average price / $284,667 / $287,793 / $294,264
Source: Calgary Real Estate Board

PEAKING YOUR INTEREST

Housing may have peaked
Gary Marr, Financial Post
Published: Thursday, April 15, 2010

The spring homebuying season has reached a fever pitch with a record number of "for sale" signs being placed on Canadian lawns for the month of March.

But there are indications the market has reached the peak with nowhere to go but down.

The Canadian Real Estate Association said yesterday that 97,663 properties were put on market last month, a 25% increase from the number of new listings in March a year ago. Since the beginning of the new year, there have been 233,402 homes put on the market, the best-ever first quarter for new listings.

With demand still strong, sales continue to soar. There were 49,256 units that traded hands in March, the second-best March on record, and a 40.8% rise from a year earlier.

Yet despite the huge increase in year-over-year sales, March was the fifth straight month that the percentage increase has declined. In some markets, sales are already falling. Seasonally adjusted sales in British Columbia dropped 17.8% from a quarter earlier and Alberta sales dropped 9.7% during the same period.

Phil Soper, chief executive of Royal LePage Real Estate Services, said affordability and consumer confidence drive the market. "The former has not eroded enough to affect the market and the latter has improved considerably," he said.

Still, he concedes the spring market may be the top for real estate. "It will be the top from an industry-volume perspective. It's the last hurrah for the pent-up demand in the market," said Mr. Soper, who expects prices to continue to rise, but more slowly.

Even with the increase in the supply of homes, sales are expected to remain strong this spring as homebuyers scramble before tougher mortgage rules, rising interest rates and the new HST in Ontario and British Columbia come into play - all by July 1.

Many in the industry concede, however, the spring market could be the last gasp before housing sales start to drop, along with prices. Few, however, are predicting a U.S.-style crash.

"If this isn't the top, we are very close to it in terms of sale activity and price," said Gregory Klump, chief economist with CREA.

Mr. Klump doesn't predict the market will reverse dramatically, but says year-over-year comparisons are going to continue to shrink for sales and prices.

Mr. Klump said prices at the high end of the market are going to start driving down because consumers in that segment are trying to beat the clock on all the changes ­coming.

New mortgage rules, which go into effect on April 19, will force consumers to borrow based on the five-year posted rate if they are locking in for a term less than five years. Previously, they could use the actual rate on their contract, meaning they could borrow more.

Banks have also raised long-term mortgage rates in the past two weeks, with a five-year, fixed-rate closed mortgage rising from 5.25% to 6.10%. The Bank of Canada is expected to raise its own benchmark rates shortly and that will affect consumers with floating-rate mortgages now based on a prime rate of 2.25%.

And the introduction of the harmonized sales tax on July 1 will raise costs for some services associated with buying a house, such as a real estate commission. It is coming only to British Columbia and Ontario, but Toronto and Vancouver are the most expensive real estate markets in the country and skew the national averages.

For now, the market still has some wind behind it. "Negotiations still favour sellers during the home-buying process in a number of major Canadian housing markets," said Georges Pahud, CREA's president.

"The rise in new listings means that buyers may shop around more before making an offer."

Photo by: Erik Twight