UP AND AWAY

Calgary resale home average prices to balloon to more than half a million dollars
Report says average to hit $517,016 in 2017
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald November 20, 2013 

CALGARY - The average price for a resale home in Calgary will balloon to more than half a million dollars by 2017, according to a new real estate report released Tuesday.

The Conference Board of Canada’s Autumn Metropolitan Housing Outlook, commissioned by Genworth Canada, said the average price for all residential property in Calgary will grow from $431,760 this year to $517,016 in 2017.

“Calgary is facing a lack of inventory in particular areas,” said Tanya Eklund, a realtor with RE/MAX Real Estate (Central) in Calgary.

“Buyers looking for land for redevelopment and homes for renovation have been in very short supply and have driven up pricing due to multiple offers and low inventory. Low interest rates, strong unemployment rates, low vacancy rates and an overall strong economy have also added to strength in the Calgary market.”
Ben Brunnen, an economic consultant in Calgary, said the city’s population has grown each year for the past four years and this has helped drive residential construction activity and home prices.

“Net-migration can have a big impact on the housing market, as an influx of people and families into our city can often increase housing demand unpredictably,” he said.

“In the current market, vacancy rates are low, rents are high and population growth is strong. Combined with a good economy and favourable job prospects, people are more willing to buy than they were a few years ago. The last time we’ve seen comparable population growth was from 2004 to 2006, when the economy entered a boom. While we won’t see similar house price appreciations due to different global economics at play, Calgary house prices should stay strong for the near future.”

Calgary’s economy and housing demand continue to thrive as energy sector activity remains healthy. Rising GDP is spurring employment growth,” said the report.

“On the resale housing market front, solid sales will lead to sound price gains this year and next. The new housing market is benefitting from strong absorptions, which are trimming unsold stocks of new units and fostering new construction. The medium term also looks decent.

“Ongoing economic growth will continue to produce gains in resale sales and prices and keep housing starts above their 20-year average. Good housing affordability, measured against local incomes, is an ongoing benefit to this market and allows single-family starts to maintain a high market share compared with other cities covered in this report.”
The report said summertime flooding in Calgary will limit Calgary’s GDP to 3.3 per cent growth in 2013, modest by recent standards. Output will rise a slightly faster 3.4 per cent in 2014, spurred by government-funded rebuilding efforts.

The job market will continue to expand, with annual growth of 2.4 per cent this year and 2.8 per cent in 2014 cutting the unemployment rate from 4.9 per cent this year to 4.6 per cent in 2014. Economic health should continue between 2015 and 2017, with GDP expanding roughly three per cent and employment rising about two per cent each year, it said.

“Calgary’s strong economic fundamentals allowed its resale market to largely shrug off the floods. Seasonally-adjusted sales and the average resale price actually rose during June, the flood month, and have subsequently advanced,” said the report.

“Price growth is accelerating, although increases remain far below boom-era advances. We expect the market to remain balanced and price growth to stay healthy in 2014 and over the following few years.”
The report’s forecast for average prices over the next few years and annual growth rate are: 2013, $431,760, 4.7 per cent; 2014, $451,798, 4.6 per cent; 2015, $473,470, 4.8 per cent; 2016, $497,139, 5.0 per cent; and 2017, $517,016, 4.0 per cent.

Forecast for sales in the resale market for the next few years and annual growth rate are: 2013, 28,111, 5.5 per cent; 2014, 28,793, 2.4 per cent; 2015, 29,418, 2.2 per cent; 2016, 30,027, 2.1 per cent; and 2017, 30,620, 2.0 per cent.
“Unsurprisingly, Calgary’s resale prices are rising briskly. Year-over-year growth has averaged a solid 4.6 per cent in the latest four quarters, including a first quarter jump near eight per cent,” said the report. “These increases will lift Calgary’s average price 4.7 per cent in 2013, the largest gain since 2007 and finally exceeding that year’s peak value. Similar price growth is expected between 2014 and 2016, with a slight tapering in growth to four per cent in 2017.

“These increases will slightly erode local housing affordability. Principle and interest charges on Calgary’s average resale home were under 16 per cent of average household income the last two years and are expected to remain there in 2013. But house prices will rise faster than incomes, pushing the ratio to roughly 20 per cent by 2017. This remains decent, as affordability is better only in Edmonton, Ottawa, and Winnipeg among the cities in this report.”

The report said buoyant housing demand is also energizing the new home market. Absorption of new units averaged 11,200 units in the four quarters to the second quarter of 2013, up 25 per cent from a year earlier. This included a surge to an annualized 15,000 units in the second quarter, the most since 2008. This strength will lift absorptions to a full-year total of 12,140 units in 2013, up 25 per cent from 2012. Another increase of nearly six per cent in absorptions is expected for 2014, but still trailing the peak of 13,700 units reached in 2008.

“Healthy new-unit take-up fuelled a big jump in housing starts to 13,186 units in 2012, more than double the recessionary trough in 2009, but well off peak levels of the last decade,” it said. “We expect starts to ease a modest 2.7 per cent in 2013 as an 11 per cent dip in multiple starts slightly outweighs a seven per cent gain in single-detached starts. For 2014, rebounding multiple starts will fuel a five per cent increase in total starts despite relatively unchanged single-detached construction.

“In the medium term, we expect housing starts to ease slightly, as both single-family and multiple construction dip. By 2017, we expect 11,400 units to get under way; this would slightly outpace the 20-year average of housing starts. While multiple starts are expected to increase their market share, they are forecast to make up only 52 per cent of total starts between 2013 and 2017.”

HIGH IN THE SKY APPLE PIE

Calgary condo market booming with high sales growth

New condo sales at strongest levels since 2006

BY MARIO TONEGUZZI

CALGARY HERALD OCTOBER 11, 2013

CALGARY — The pace of year-over-year sales growth in the resale condo market is much higher than the single-family home market this year in Calgary.

And new condo sales are also moving in an upward trend towards the strongest levels since 2006.

“Calgary’s condominium market remains resilient and in high demand with new construction being well supported demographically, exhibiting steady sales throughout the inner city and the downtown core,” said Kaitlyn Gottlieb, a realtor with Century 21 Bamber Realty Ltd. in Calgary.

“Calgary’s luxury condominium market remains immensely sought after. As Calgarians’ incomes continue to rise and our business sector attracts relocations, high-end buyers are taking advantage of the luxury condos that Calgary has to offer, boasting high-end finishes and their close proximity to the downtown core.”

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, year-to-date until October 10, MLS sales in the condo apartment category in the city were 3,253, up 14.58 per cent from the same period a year ago and the average sale price has jumped by 6.14 per cent to $298,050. In the condo townhouse category, sales of 2,600 are up 22.18 per cent from last year and the average sale price has risen by 6.60 per cent to $338,809.

The single-family home market in the city has seen sales rise by 7.36 per cent to 13,482 with the average price moving up by 8.18 per cent to $517,730.

“While the recent floods have undoubtedly impacted all sectors of Calgary’s housing market inclusive of the condominium market, as demonstrated by the increased demand for affordable housing, the overall market remains stable,” said Gottlieb.

“Steady migration, employment and population growth are major contributors as we move into the fourth quarter of the year. The relative affordability of our city’s housing market remains one of the best in Canada and we can expect to see Calgary’s condominium market continue to rise at a moderate, sustainable pace.”

A report by Altus Group says new condo sales in Calgary are at the strongest levels since 2006.

It said the new multi-family condo market has seen impressive sales in the first half of 2013 with almost 3,000 sales to start the year, an increase of 400 sales compared with the same period in 2012.

The sales pace this year is 16 per cent ahead of 2012 at mid-year and 74 per cent better than in 2011 for the same period.

“New suburban apartment and townhouse projects entering the market are primarily responsible for the strong sales results, with mid-year sales up sharply in the north and south quadrants of the city following the launch of several new projects during the Spring,” said the report. “In the downtown region, sales are generally consistent with last year’s pace, although sales activity has been more focused at projects with superior locations and faster possession timing.”

The report said the strong sales so far this year are expected to push the annual sales volume to about 5,000 units, potentially making 2013 the second strongest sales year in the past decade.

“Developers will begin to see cost pressures from higher land prices, construction cost escalations and a declining land supply in the suburban regions, while consumer activity could be impacted by the recent price growth, higher interest rates and more restrictive lending practices,” said the report.

“While home ownership will remain the goal for most consumers, the higher prices and interest rates may force some consumers to delay their purchase decision while they save for a larger down payment.”

LOOKING NORTH

Demand increases for resale homes
By Josh Skapin 
Calgary Herald October 4, 2013  

Sales of single-family resale homes climbed 20 per cent in September compared to sales a year earlier, with tight market conditions creating higher prices, says the Calgary Real Estate Board.

“The impact of the floods likely boosted sales throughout July and August, and it appears as though some of that additional demand is starting to ease,” says chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie of CREB.

“Nonetheless, sales growth remains strong, in part because net migration has been stronger than anticipated and rental product is in short supply.”

Net migration describes the inflow of people to the city minus the outflow.

During September, 1,354 homes changed hands, up 20 per cent from 1,126 during the same time in 2012, says CREB.

The benchmark price of single-family homes in Calgary was $463,700 in September, a seven per cent upswing from $432,900 during the same month last year. The benchmark price is that of a typical home based on a formula that uses various factors to ensure accurate comparisons.

“While prices show strong year-over-year gains, if the level of new listings continues to improve relative to sales activity, prices should level off for the remainder of the year,” says Lurie.

Homebuyers have seen about the same selection this year compared to a year ago. There were 18,949 new listings between Jan. 1 and the end of September, a slight decline of 0.2 per cent from 18,881 during the same span in 2012.

However, the market saw a turnaround for new listings in September.

Last month, 1,975 single-family resale homes were added to the market, five per cent more than the 1,887 during this time last year.

From Jan. 1 to the end of September, 13,006 single-family homes were sold on Calgary’s resale market, a seven per cent improvement over the 12,186 transactions during the same period last year.

The quadrant with the most single-family house sales in the city during September was the northwest.

The board’s Zone A, which roughly consists of the northwest, finished the month with 467 transactions.

The next busiest quadrant was the board’s Zone C with 357 homes changing hands during September. This zone roughly consists of southwest Calgary.

At the same time, the board’s Zone D had 299 deals, while 231 homes sold in the board’s Zone B. Zone D roughly covers the southeast quadrant and Zone B is mostly the northeast side.

NORTHWEST LEADS REST

The two communities that saw the highest single-family home sales in the city in September were both in northwest Calgary.

Tuscany led the city in sales with 34 deals at an average sale price of $535,688, says the Calgary Real Estate Board. Panorama Hills had the second highest sales with 31 transactions at an average price of $487,477.

For information, visit creb.com