CONDOMINIUM ACT OVERHAUL

Province’s condo law to get an overhaul
Bill 13 includes new process to resolve disputes
BY BILL MAH AND MARIO TONEGUZZI 
CALGARY HERALD MAY 8, 2014

A proposed overhaul of Alberta’s condominium law, including a way to better resolve disputes, is being hailed as long overdue for the province’s booming condo market.

“The original condominium act was introduced in 1969, and it’s had a couple of minor amendments, but really the condominium developments that are being built and the complexity of the relationships has far exceeded the legislation written in 1969,” Service Alberta Minister Doug Griffiths said Wednesday in outlining the changes.

“It was time to update and modernize it.”

After years of consultations with industry and condo groups, the government tabled Bill 13, the Condominium Property Amendment Act, in the legislature for first reading on Tuesday. The bill, which must still undergo scrutiny from MLAs before being voted on, contains 50 amendments.

These include the creation of a new condo dispute tribunal; clearer and expanded disclosure to buyers of initial condo fees and other information by developers; improved governance for condo corporations and harsher penalties for “particularly unfair actions by developers.”

Griffiths said the current condominium law lacks enough tools to deal with challenges, such as disputes that arise between owners, condo corporations, builders and other stakeholders and is needed in Alberta, where there are more than 8,000 condo corporations, accounting for about 20 per cent of homes sold annually.

“We’re going to incorporate the dispute resolution process, a new mechanism that means that people don’t have to resolve things in court, which is a costly, lengthy, confrontational process,” Griffiths said.

Work on the regulations, which will include details about the dispute tribunal and clarification of insurance obligations for corporations and owners, will begin shortly.

June Donaldson, co-founder of the Alberta Condominium Owners Association, said the amendments are desperately needed.

“The fact that there’s going to be a tribunal where the average condo owner can go, and in a very constructive and collaborative way, hopefully remedy it in a way that addresses the issues that are causing them worry, money or stress … is so big,” Donaldson said.

“Condominium living in Alberta has changed so dramatically over the past 10, 15 years and the legislation has not kept up with the market,” said lawyer Robert Noce, a partner at Miller Thomson, who handles condo legal matters.

The amendments will help protect consumers, offer a way to deal with issues more swiftly and give owners and corporations a clearer understanding of their roles and obligations, he said.

Jim Rivait, CEO of the Alberta Chapter of the Canadian Home Builders’ Association, said most builders and developers are reputable and won’t have to change their practices. However, the new legislation will offer added protection to buyers, he said.

“It’s quite a complex piece of legislation, and only part of it really affects the building part of it,” he said. “A lot of it is the management and how they run the condo board, answering a lot of the issues.

“There’s some transparency things that they want to build in as people get into the whole condo business, so that people are aware. And we’re all for that.”

Condos, often more affordable than single-detached homes, are a growing sector, with 55 per cent of housing starts classed as multi-family in the first three months of 2014, Rivait said.

“From an industry standpoint, it’s becoming more and more important, not less important, because affordability causes people to enter into the market through condos as their first homes and that’s usually their first experience.”

Calgary Real Estate Board president Bill Kirk said realtors welcome the new condo legislation because added consumer protection will make condo ownership a more attractive option.

“If it’s good news for condo owners, it’s good news for the real estate industry because they’re our clients, and if it’s clearer for them how they’re going to operate, it’s just great news for us,” he said.

CREB data show 1,611 MLS sales of condo apartments in the city through Tuesday, a 20 per cent increase from the same period a year ago.

In the condo townhouse category, sales are up about 18 per cent to 1,245 units.

“The condominium review and act revisions will increase disclosure to the consumer and remove some of the uncertainty in the market,” said Matthew Boukall, director of residential advisory services for Altus Group.

“Condominium development is still a relatively new and growing housing option in our market and many consumers may be unfamiliar with the concept.

“Changes that improve disclosure and provide consumers with more information, and remove some of the hidden risks to condominium ownership should improve confidence in the built form, and may attract more consumers who were uncertain about buying a condo in the past.”

HOME OF THE BRAVE

More Albertans willing to brave rising prices and purchase a home
People confident in getting into the real estate market
By Mario Toneguzzi 
Calgary Herald April 10, 2014 

CALGARY - Despite high real estate prices, Albertans have a renewed interest in buying a home, according to the 21st Annual RBC Home Ownership Poll.

The poll, which was released Thursday, said the number of those intending to buy a home in the province is up from 22 per cent in 2013 to 28 per cent this year, “showing a renewed strength in the market from last year.”

“We saw a drop in purchasing intent last year in Alberta, so this renewed intent in 2014 shows that people in the province are confident in their ability to get into the market and invest in a home,” said Don Peard, regional vice president and mortgage specialist with RBC.

“There’s a couple of key factors. Number one being, certainly we were predicting a year ago and even more than that an increase in interest rates and that really hasn't transpired. Even if it does transpire, I don’t believe it will be as severe as some people were anticipating. That’s a huge factor in affordability and certainly impacts peoples’ intent to purchase.”

Peard said discussion about the levels of consumer debt has had an impact on peoples’ savings habits with better results in recent years, which means they are able to have enough money for down-payments.

“And of course in Alberta, comparatively speaking, affordability still remains very well particularly when we compare pricing and affordability with other larger centres in Canada. Alberta still remains very affordable. There’s no question the intent to purchase has increased,” said Peard.

Recently, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Alberta will lead the country with the highest annual growth rate in prices over the next two years in the resale housing market.

It said average MLS sale prices will climb in the province by 3.9 per cent this year to $396,000 and by another 2.5 per cent in 2015 to $406,000.

The association said Alberta will see annual sales activity increase by 0.8 per cent this year to 66,600 and then lead the country in 2015 with 3.9 per cent growth to 69,200 sales.

In February, MLS sales were up by 1.8 per cent year-over-year in Alberta to 4,595 and the average MLS sale price saw a yearly increase of 7.6 per cent in the province to $407,540.

“The volatility and fluctuations in some of the other larger Canadian cities we just don’t experience that in Alberta. There’s good, solid general appreciation in home values but it’s certainly not big spikes and bubbles,” said Peard.

“Lots of fear and talk of real estate bubbles in the past two or three or four years and I think the general consensus now is that’s really probably not going to happen at all and there’s lots of good empirical data to support that and we've seen good positive changes in the Vancouver and Toronto markets and of course we’re just that much more fortunate here in Alberta with having one of the best economies in the country.”

Photo By: Danielle Nanni

MAKING GAINS

Calgary house price gain again best in Canada
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald January 15, 2014 

CALGARY - Another day and another real estate report indicating Calgary’s housing market is showing the best year-over-year price growth in the country.

On Wednesday, the Canadian Real Estate Association released its MLS Home Price Index which indicated Calgary prices in December were up 8.74 per cent from a year ago while the aggregate across the country, encompassing 11 major markets, rose by 4.31 per cent. 

The CREA report followed Tuesday’s Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index report which said Calgary led the nation with a 6.5 per cent hike in prices for repeat home sales.

In December, CREA said Calgary MLS sales were up nine per cent from last year to 1,464 transactions while the average sale price rose by 4.7 per cent to $439,389.
 For Canada, MLS sales during the month increased by 12.9 per cent to 23,215 units and the average sale price jumped by 10.4 per cent to $389,119.

In Alberta, sales of 3,135 were up 9.8 per cent from a year ago and the average sale price rose by 4.7 per cent to $380,477.

On an annual basis, the number of sales and percentage increases were: Calgary, 29,954, 12.5 per cent; Alberta, 66,080, 9.5 per cent; and Canada, 457,893, 0.8 per cent.

On an annual basis, the average sale price and percentage increases were: Calgary, $437,036, 6.0 per cent; Alberta, $380,969, 4.9 per cent; and Canada, $382,466, 5.2 per cent.

Booming luxury market pushes Calgary house prices to records

Booming luxury market pushes Calgary house prices to records

Average sale and median prices at unprecedented levels

BY MARIO TONEGUZZI
CALGARY HERALD, JANUARY 2, 2014

CALGARY - A booming luxury market, and tight overall conditions with listings not keeping pace with demand, has pushed Calgary house prices to unprecedented levels.

Average sale and median prices hit all-time records for the city in 2013 for both total MLS transactions and in the single-family home category, according to data released Thursday by the Calgary Real Estate Board.

The average sale price for total MLS reached $456,703 for the year, up 6.54 per cent from 2012, while the single-family average price rose by 7.61 per cent to $517,887.

The median sale price for total MLS was $401,000 and it was $450,000 for single-family homes. The median price rose by 5.53 per cent from the previous year for total MLS and it was a 7.14 per cent hike in the single-family market.

Also, December capped a solid year for the residential real estate market with the highest-ever monthly average sale price at $527,764, eclipsing the previous record of $526,546 set in June 2013.

"Momentum was building from the last quarter of 2012," said Christina Hagerty, a realtor with RE/MAX Realty Professionals in Calgary. "We approached 2013 with low interest rates, one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country and the lowest vacancy rate in the past decade. Employment growth and higher than expected net migration into the city helped support the demand for housing and increased sales and pricing. 2013 was an extremely busy year for us with informed and prepared purchasers.

"People talk about the flood adding to this, but I focus on the amazing ability for a city to rebound in a very short period of time. Something that may have devastated other major centres. I believe that this is largely due to the sense of community and the job market allowing people the ability to rebuild."

The previous records for average sale prices were set in 2012 at $428,649 for total MLS and $481,259 for single-family homes. The previous records for median prices were set in 2007 at $382,000 for total MLS and in both 2007 and 2012 at $420,000 for the single-family market.

Average prices in the city ballooned this year as a result of a strong luxury market that set a record for most transactions ever at $1 million or more.

devastated other major centres. I believe that this is largely due to the sense of community and the job market allowing people the ability to rebuild.”

According to Mike Fotiou, associate broker with First Place Realty, there were 727 luxury home sales in 2013, which was a 33.6 per cent hike from the previous annual peak in 2012. The year was marked by 10 consecutive months of new monthly sales records. Only January and December did not set records in 2013.

Total MLS sales in the city reached 23,489 units in 2013, up 10.78 per cent from the previous year. New listings of 32,153 were up 0.97 per cent but active listings at the end of December were down by 17.80 per cent to 2,235.

"Companies are recruiting professionals across Canada and globally and this has put Calgary on the map as a thriving metropolis of opportunity and a safe place to raise their families," said Hagerty. "With vacancy rates at one per cent and an abundance of job opportunity, there is a confidence in the city. 2014 looks to continue with solid growth fueled by sound fundamentals."

MLS sales and percentage increase from 2012 for different housing categories were: single-family, 16,302, 7.92 per cent; condo apartment, 4,007, 14.45 per cent; condo townhouse, 3,180, 22.40 per cent; and towns, 4,516, 13.81 per cent.

Average sale price and percentage increase from 2012 were: single-family, $517,887, 7.61 per cent; condo apartment, $299,517, 5.17 per cent; condo townhouse, $341,116, 7.73 per cent; and towns, $381,884, 9.55 per cent.

Median price and percentage increase from 2012 were: single-family, $450,000, 7.14 per cent; condo apartment, $261,000, 3.78 per cent; condo townhouse, $306,000, 6.45 per cent; and towns, $355,700, 6.18 per cent.

Scott Bollinger, broker with the ComFree Commonsense Network, said prices in Calgary climbed because of increased sales and listings not keeping pace with the demand.

"Most notably in 2013 we saw rising wages, low interest rates and record in-migration. So it’s not surprising after three to five years of relatively little price growth, and despite the steady employment and the wage growth along with record low interest rates, that prices surged this year," he said.

"Add to that the Alberta and Calgary economies outperformed almost every other region in Canada in 2013 by a wide margin, which had the effect of attracting all of those people. But the interesting thing is that 70 per cent of the net migration to Calgary in particular was international. And the other thing about the migration was that we set a record this year for the growth of the cohort of ages between 25 and 45 and those people, along with the international crowd, are most likely to engage in household formation."

Bollinger said he is surprised that the listings didn’t catch up with the sales. He said the market might expect to see more of a reaction from the listing side early in the new year.

"If we don’t see that increase in listings, I think we’re going to continue to see farily significant price increases," said Bollinger.

In a statement, Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB’s chief economist, said sales growth exceeded expectations in 2013, pushing above long-term trends.

"Two consecutive years of elevated levels of net migration, combined with an improving job outlook and confidence surrounding long-term economic prospects, supported the demand growth," she said.

"In 2014, both sales activity and prices are expected to improve, but not at the same pace recorded this year. While factors influencing demand will support growth in 2014, rising listings and increased competition from the new home sector should alleviate some of the supply pressure in the market."

Those factors, combined with potential increases in long-term lending rates, should take some of the steam off the exceptionally strong price growth recorded in 2013, said Lurie.

AFFORDABILITY EASING

Calgary housing affordability easing
Sharp rise in household income helping
By Mario Toneguzzi 
Calgary Herald October 29, 2013

CALGARY - A sharp rise in average household income is keeping Calgary house price affordability in check, says a new report released Tuesday by Desjardins Group Economic Studies.

The report’s affordability index showed that it is only slightly under the historical average in Calgary, despite relatively high home prices of $438,793 in the third quarter.

It said the average household income of $110,000 “makes home purchases easier” in Calgary.

But the report said the Canadian housing market is now less affordable than it has been on average for the last 25 years.


“This decline stems from average home prices outpacing household income in the third quarter as well as a small hike in mortgage rates,” said the report.

BATTLING BOARDS

Alberta tries a new tack for resolving condo disputes
By Annalise Klingbeil 
Calgary Herald October 1, 2013

A newly created tribunal system will help condominium owners in Alberta who are embroiled in disputes avoid costly and time-consuming legal battles, the Minister of Service Alberta announced on Monday.

Manmeet Bhullar said the new dispute resolution process, expected to be operational by early 2014, will help protect the hundreds of thousands of condominium owners who live in Alberta.

“Everyday, hard-working Albertans who live in a condominium can’t afford $200 or $300 or $500 an hour to pay a lawyer,” Bhullar said Monday, standing near the Bow River, across from several condominium towers.

Bhullar said it’s common for condo owners to disagree with other condo owners and condo boards on issues ranging from parking spots to fees. “Owners can have disputes with one another over things like noise complaints and even odours coming from another unit,” he said.

Bhullar said the new system will allow condo owners to pay a “reasonable fee” to have their matter heard before an adjudicator.

Stephen Cassady, the president of the Canadian Condominium Institute — South Alberta Chapter, welcomed the government’s announcement of a new resolution model.

“It’s an entire waste of resources and time of people who could be better spending it doing something else,” he said of the current system.

Cassady said the industry has changed significantly in the 13 years since the government last updated its condominium legislation in 2000.

“If we can get (disputes) out of the court systems then we will do a phenomenal job of improving everybody’s life,” he said.

The new changes are the first of many to come to the province’s Condominium Property Act, following public consultation with Albertans, Bhullar said.

Instead of waiting for changes to the Act to be tabled in the Legislature in the spring, Bhullar said he is tasking a committee of people, led by Sherwood Park MLA Cathy Olesen, to develop the new dispute resolution model immediately. “Developing a more affordable and speedy way to resolve differences will help protect condominium owners,” Bhullar said.

Bhullar said condominiums accounted for nearly 20 per cent of home sales in Alberta in 2012.

Photo By: mira66

A SELLERS' MARKET

Calgary area housing market has best price growth expectation
7% and higher forecast for year-over-year hike in short-term
By Mario Toneguzzi 
Calgary Herald September 20, 2013

CALGARY — Calgary and area is forecast to lead the country in short-term year-over-year price growth in the housing market, according to a report released Friday by the Conference Board of Canada.

The report said prices in the Calgary region are expected to rise by seven per cent or more.

The board’s report said Calgary is now in a sellers’ market.

The board said the seasonally-adjusted annual rate of sales in Calgary of 33,264 in August was up 6.3 per cent from the previous month and a 26.3 per cent hike from a year ago.

The seasonally-adjusted annual rate of listings at 43,704 was up 2.0 per cent from July and increased by 4.8 per cent from August 2012.

The board said the average price in Calgary of $441,806 in August increased by 0.7 per cent from the previous month and by 8.0 per cent from a year ago.

Scott Bollinger, broker for the ComFree Commonsense Network, said the strong housing market in the city is due to a strong outlook for the economy.

“We’ll outperform most of the country, and that creates significant demand for housing. Interest rates are low, and the Bank of Canada is unlikely to move them till 2015,” he said. “Personal incomes are high and growing. Oil prices are strong and stable. Our growth in the 20-44-year-old demographic is second fastest in the world, behind only India. And our cost of living is lower than Toronto or Vancouver.

“That all adds up to this: More Calgarians can afford to buy a home, and more can afford to move up in the market.”

Bollinger said the strong price growth in the Calgary market is due to confidence — people who are confident about their employment and future wages.

“Confidence in housing is a good investment. Confidence in the city’s economic strengths and the strength of the market, in the face perhaps of news from other cities that a housing bubble is on the horizon. Real estate is local, and Calgarians are smart and savvy enough to realize that,” he said.

“I think we can expect this to continue because of those strong economic fundamentals, and because growth in optimistic buyers is outpacing growth in listings. It’s the old supply-and-demand.”

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, year-to-date for just the city, there have been 17,933 MLS sales as of Thursday, up 9.33 per cent from the same period a year ago. The average sale price has jumped by 6.93 per cent to $456,779 but new listings are down 0.8 per cent to 25,943.

“The average price in Calgary is forecast to increase almost six per cent this year to $435,000,” said Richard Cho, senior market analyst in Calgary for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., about the census metropolitan area. “Part of the gains in the average price thus far is due to the high number of luxury homes sold this year. There has also been more pressure on prices as active listings have moved lower as well as days-on-market. Price growth is expected to continue into 2014 but at a more modest pace.”

A FLOOD OF HOPE

Alberta an economic leader despite devastating floods
Real GDP growth forecast to be best in Canada in 2014
By Mario Toneguzzi

Calgary Herald September 17, 2013

CALGARY — Not even the worst floods in memory will be enough to restrain Alberta’s economy this year, according to the latest RBC Economics Provincial Outlook released Tuesday.

The report said post-flood spending will more than compensate for the drop in economic activity related to the natural disaster as RBC is upwardly revising its provincial real GDP growth rate to 3.2 per cent in 2013, up from the 3.0 per cent previously projected due to the anticipated economic boost from post-flood spending.

It will be the second best growth rate in the country this year behind Newfoundland & Labrador at 6.0 per cent.

And RBC is forecasting Alberta growth of 4.1 per cent in 2014 to lead the nation.

“There is no doubt Alberta’s economy took a hit after the floods, however, the province has shown tremendous resiliency, and we expect the economy to spring forward for the remainder of 2013,” said Craig Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist for RBC. “Post-flood spending will more than make up for the short-lived economic challenges Alberta experienced at the beginning of the summer.”

Ben Brunnen, a Calgary economic consultant, said Alberta is well-poised for growth into 2014.

“Oil and gas revenues are at their highest point since 2008, and industry re-investment is comparable to 2011 when we saw five per cent GDP growth,” he said.

“People have confidence in the Calgary economy. Unemployment is low, the residential real estate market is strong, and we are at the front end of a major commercial construction cycle.”

Adam Legge, president and chief executive of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, is not as optimistic as the RBC report.

“I think Alberta will do moderate growth next year restrained by lack of market access, continued oil price differentials and a shortage of labour. Flood-related spending does hit GDP but should be viewed as a temporary lift that actually will create reduced GDP impacts in the future.”

RBC said that annual GDP statistics will fully capture the additional spending and work required by the reconstruction, repair and replacement that will take place, but will essentially ignore the destruction of or damage to property.

“Even without this perverse lift that the floods will provide to the provincial economy, Alberta continues to demonstrate substantial and sustained economic momentum,” said Wright.

The report is forecasting 1.8 per cent economic growth for Canada this year followed by 2.8 per cent in 2014.

“In addition to the boost from post-flood spending, we expect Alberta’s economy to benefit from stronger capital investment in oilsands now that earlier ‘bitumen bubble’ concerns have largely receded,” said Wright.

Todd Hirsch, chief economist with ATB Financial, said Alberta’s economy is set to pick up a bit of momentum next year after slowing down slightly in 2013.

“Stronger energy prices than a year ago are largely the reason. However, agriculture has quietly but steadily regained a very strong position in Alberta’s economy,” he said.

“Continued inflow of interprovincial migrants in 2014 should also ensure the housing market remains healthy and balanced.”

Photo By: Marc Shandro

PROVINCIAL 2ND QUARTER AFFORDABILITY

Alberta's housing market continues as one of Canada's most affordable: RBC Economics

RBC Economics

 Aug. 27, 2013, 2013 (Menafn - Canada NewsWire via COMTEX)

Alberta homebuyers continued to enjoy a relatively affordable housing market in the second quarter, despite some increases in ownership costs in late 2012 and early 2013, according to the latest Housing Trends and Affordability Report issued today by RBC Economics Research.

"Despite the fact that the market has kicked into higher gear since spring - thereby boosting prices and increasing ownership costs - Alberta continues to be a relatively affordable market," said Craig Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist, RBC. "We will likely see some disruptions in market activity trickle through in summer data from the floods in southern Alberta; however, we anticipate the strong provincial economy will endure, supporting further housing growth in 2014."

In the second quarter of 2013, RBC's housing affordability measures, which capture the province's proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a home at market values, edged higher for all three categories tracked (an increase in the measure represents deterioration in affordability).

RBC's affordability measure rose by 0.7 percentage points to 32.4 per cent for bungalows and 0.4 percentage points to 34.5 per cent for two-storey homes. The measure for condominiums rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 19.6 per cent. All measures stood at a level below their long-term average, indicating that homeownership in the province remained historically attractive.

Calgary's housing market moving forward despite flood adversity.

The flooding that hit Calgary at the end of June did not appear to have slowed Calgary's housing market progression in the second quarter of 2013, says RBC. On a quarterly basis, home resales in the area posted a 12 per cent gain - their second-strongest improvement in four years.

"Though prices are now on a steeper upward trajectory, the effects have yet to undermine affordability in a material way. In fact, affordability levels in Calgary continue to be among the best in Canada," said Wright. "Demand for Calgary housing will continue to benefit from a strong provincial economy, solid labour market, fast-rising population and attractive affordability."

RBC measures for Calgary showed little movement across all housing categories in the second quarter of 2013. RBC's measure for two-storey homes rose by 0.5 percentage points to 33.6 per cent and for condominium apartments edged lower by 0.2 percentage points to 19.4 per cent; the measure for bungalows remained unchanged at 33.0 per cent.

RBC's housing affordability measure for the benchmark detached bungalow in Canada's largest cities is as follows: Vancouver 82.1 per cent (up 2.2 percentage points from the previous quarter); Toronto 54.5 per cent (up 0.5 percentage points); Montreal 38.1 (down 0.7 percentage points); Ottawa 37.1 (up 0.5 percentage points); Edmonton 34.0 (up 1.8 percentage points); Calgary 33.0 (unchanged).

The RBC Housing Affordability Measure, which has been compiled since 1985, is based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow (a reasonable property benchmark for the housing market in Canada) at market value. Alternative housing types are also presented, including a standard two-storey home and a standard condominium apartment. The higher the reading, the more difficult it is to afford a home at market values. For example, an affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, would take up 50 per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.

Highlights from across Canada:

--British Columbia:
affordability takes one step back

Homeownership of single-family homes in the province became less affordable in the second quarter of 2013 amid a surge in resale activity since early spring following a near two-year long cooling stretch. RBC measures rose by 1.1 percentage points for bungalows, by 0.8 percentage points for two-storey homes, and by only 0.1 percentage points for condominiums.

--Saskatchewan:
seesaw affordability pattern endures

Affordability in the province continued to experience a seesaw-like pattern which has characterized this market in recent years. RBC measures rose modestly by 0.9 percentage points for bungalow and 0.5 percentage points for two-storey homes in the latest period, while the measure for condominiums inched lower by 0.3 percentage points.

--Manitoba:
housing affordability a mixed bag

The province's second quarter housing affordability developments proved to be a mixed bag with RBC's measure for the two-storey home category rising by 1.8 percentage points, the measure for bungalows down slightly by 0.2 percentage points, and the measure for condominiums edging up by 0.2 percentage points.

--Ontario:
steady as she goes

There was little change in housing affordability in Ontario in the second quarter. RBC's measures for both bungalows and two-storey homes rose by 0.2 percentage points relative to the first quarter, while the measure for condominiums remained flat.

--Quebec:
bucking the deteriorating affordability trend

The Quebec housing market bucked the national trend by enjoying a broad-based improvement in affordability in the second quarter. RBC affordability measure for the province fell by 0.5 percentage points for bungalows and 0.4 percentage points for condominiums; the measure for two-storey homes remained unchanged.

--Atlantic Canada:
affordability stuck in neutral

Atlantic Canada's housing affordability levels remained relatively static at neutral levels in the second quarter of 2013. Affordability measures moved marginally in all categories tracked by RBC: bungalows and condominiums edged lower by 0.1 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points, respectively; two-storey homes edged up by 0.1 percentage points.

CALGARY TOPS IN GROWTH

Calgary leads country in housing market price growth
Prices up nearly 7% from last year
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald August 15, 2013

CALGARY — Calgary led the country in July with the best year-over-year price growth in the resale housing market.

The Canadian Real Estate Association’s MLS Home Price Index, released Thursday, indicated prices in Calgary were up 6.79 per cent — more than doubling the national aggregate of 2.66 per cent price growth.

The index measures the rate at which housing prices change over time taking into account the type of homes sold. Nine major Canadian centres are surveyed.

“Our market is trending towards a selling market. Listing inventory is 20 per cent lower than this time last year and pricing is approximately seven per cent higher overall,” said Tanya Eklund, with RE/MAX Real Estate (Central) in Calgary. “The Calgary floods created a short-term surge in house purchases in certain areas. People who could afford to buy have purchased, so their families were not displaced. Due to the very low vacancy rate, rental inflation and difficulty in finding rental accommodation, this made some consumers turn to purchasing instead of renting.

“We are seeing many inner-city communities flourish with sales, however I am seeing certain suburb markets higher in inventory in the plus $1 million, so sales have not been as abundant as other communities closer to the interior of the city. Overall, it appears to be a great time to sell. Buyers have less time to think about their purchases with hopes of not losing out on their ideal home. I am confident we will continue to see a stable real estate market as we enter into the fall.”

CREA stats indicated Calgary MLS sales in July of 2,976 were up 18.9 per cent from last year while the average sale price jumped by 7.0 per cent to $438,192.

Across Canada, sales were up by 9.4 per cent to 44,829 units and the average price rose by 8.4 per cent to $382,373.

In Alberta, transactions increased by 17.8 per cent to 6,853 units while the average price was up by 4.3 per cent to $379,696.

“Canadian home sales have staged a bit of a recovery in recent months after having declined in the wake of tightened mortgage rules and lending guidelines last year, but the numbers for July suggest that national activity is levelling off at what might best be described as average levels,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist. “Sales dropped sharply in August last year, so we may see some year-over-year increases in sales and average prices next month that would reflect weakness in the rear view mirror.”

Sales and prices in Calgary are continuing their upward trend in August. According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, month-to-date until Wednesday, total MLS sales of 945 were 32.17 per cent higher than the same period last year and the average sale price was up 13 per cent to $455,688.
In another report released Thursday, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. forecast MLS sales in the Calgary census metropolitan area to rise to 27,800 transactions this year from 26,634 in 2012. Sales are expected to jump to 28,300 in 2014.

The agency forecast the average MLS sale price in the Calgary region to rise from $412,315 in 2012 to $435,000 in 2013 and to $445,000 in 2014.

Nationally, the CMHC’s point forecast is for MLS sales across Canada to decline from 453,372 in 2012 to 448,900 this year and then rise to 467,600 in 2014.

The national average sale price is expected to see year-over-year growth of 2.7 per cent this year to $374,800 followed by an increase of 2.1 per cent in 2014 to $382,800.

KEEP CALM AND BOOM

‘It’s boom time in Alberta’: New home construction at a five-year high (graphic)
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald June 10, 2013

CALGARY — New home construction picked up in the Calgary region in May with Alberta’s level at a five-year high.

It’s a sign that the housing market is heating up.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reported Monday that total starts in the Calgary census metropolitan area reached 1,078 units during the month, which was an increase from 949 in May 2012.

“The trend of total housing starts increased slightly in May, due to strong construction in both the single-detached and multi-family markets,” said Richard Cho, CMHC’s senior market analyst for Calgary.

Multi-family starts rose to 519 in May from 466 a year ago while the single-detached market saw starts jump to 559 from 483 last year.

“While softer energy prices may be moderating overall economic growth this year, it appears that home builders didn’t receive the memo. Judging by the most recent statistics, it’s boom time in Alberta,” said Todd Hirsch, chief economist at ATB Financial.

Builders started construction on 41,438 new homes in Alberta in May — the highest this year and the first time since early 2008 that the figure has risen above the 40,000 mark.

“What’s more, the trend over the last several months clearly suggests that the housing market is heating up,” added Hirsch. “Between May 2012 and May of this year, housing starts are 14.1 per cent higher than they were in the previous 12-month period.

“What’s causing this boom in home construction isn’t any big mystery: population growth. Even if overall economic growth has slowed somewhat, the inflow of people into our province hasn’t.”

The latest Labour Force Survey, released last week, points to a surge in the labour force, which has grown by 59,400, or 2.6 per cent, over the last 12-months.

“Interprovincial and international migration to Alberta is driving some of the demand for new homes. High wages, low unemployment and a younger population are also contributing factors,” said Hirsch.

“The strong housing starts number ... is supported by another figure from Friday’s employment report — the number of construction jobs is also rising. Even if jobs in the energy patch and manufacturing have eased back a bit, employment in construction continues to provide some great work opportunities.”

Robert Kavcic, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets, said multi-unit housing starts in Canada came storming back in May “after falling precipitously through the winter months.”

“Still, the six-month trend in overall Canadian housing starts sits very close to demographic demand, further hinting at a soft landing,” he said.

Total Canadian housing starts rose by 13.8 per cent in May to 200,178 annualized units, the strongest pace in six months, added Kavcic.

The multi-unit segment rose by 22 per cent.

He said Alberta posted a modest gain, and activity in the province now sits at the highest level in five years.

“With the six-month moving average now more in line with the rate of household formation, May’s sharp jump in the pace of new home construction is unlikely to be sustained,” said Dina Ignjatovic, economist with TD Economics, about the national picture. “Indeed, slower price growth in the housing market could lead to lower homebuilding activity in the coming quarters. Moreover, the overbuilding that has taken place over the last 10 years could lead to new home construction falling below this demographic need for a period of time. This should, however, help to prevent further overbuilding and a consequential sharp correction in the housing market.

“Overall, we expect new home starts to gradually trend down over the next 12-18 months, suggesting that the Canadian economy will not be able to count on residential investment to prop up growth over that time frame.”

For Graphs:
http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Calgary+region+housing+starts+trend+upwards/8503723/story.html

BY COMPARISON

Calgary prices for repeat home sales on the rise
Nationally annual hike is smallest since November 2009
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald May 14, 2013

CALGARY — Prices for repeat home sales in Calgary were up 5.5 per cent in April compared with a year ago, according to the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index.

The index, released Tuesday, also said prices in the city increased by 1.2 per cent from the previous month.

The index is estimated by tracking ob­served or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index.

Nationally, in 11 markets surveyed, prices were up 2.0 per cent on an annual basis and by 0.2 per cent month-over-month.

The year-over-year hike in Canada was the smallest 12-month rise since November 2009.

“By way of comparison, the Case-Shiller home price index of 20 U.S. metropolitan markets was up 9.3 per cent from a year earlier in February (the latest available reading),” said the Teranet-National Bank report.

In Canada, the rise over the 12 months ending in April exceeded the cross-country average in seven of the 11 markets surveyed for the national composite index: Quebec City (6.1 per cent), Calgary (5.5 per cent), Hamilton (5.4 per cent), Winnipeg (4.4 per cent), Toronto (4.3 per cent), Edmonton (3.6 per cent) and Halifax (2.8 per cent).

The report said price increases lagged the average in Ottawa-Gatineau (1.5 per cent) and Montreal (1.3 per cent). Prices were down from a year earlier in Victoria (3.3 per cent) and Vancouver (1.5 per cent). For Vancouver it was the ninth month of 12-month deflation.

Amna Asaf, economist with Capital Economics, said house price growth in Calgary and Edmonton have continued to accelerate, following from their housing downturn of two years ago.

“Although house prices rose in most of the cities, we suspect that as home sales drop, the former will eventually respond,” said Asaf. “Based on the figures already reported by the regional real estate boards, both Toronto and Vancouver posted fewer existing home sales in April compared to a year ago, although the pace of decline has eased. We suspect that national existing home sales . . . may have dropped at a more modest pace of around two per cent year-on-year.

“If we are correct about declining home sales this year, the month’s supply of inventory is likely to rise much further. Accordingly, we suspect that house prices will eventually begin to decline outright.”

On Tuesday, federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said he has no plans to intervene in Canada’s housing market, which he says is unfolding in a healthy way.

While some observers are expressing fears the bubble is about to burst, Flaherty said the market is responding the way he envisioned when he tightened lending rules last year.

The Teranet-National Bank index said the national monthly change was the weakest in the 15 years since the inception of the index with the exception of April 2009 when the country was in recession.

“In three markets considered lively, the monthly gain exceeded one per cent: Winnipeg (1.3 per cent), Edmonton (1.3. per cent), Calgary (1.2 per cent). Excluding these three regions, the Composite index would have been flat in April. Lesser monthly increases were recorded in Hamilton (0.6 per cent), Montreal (0.5 per cent) and Toronto (0.4 per cent). Prices were down from the month before in five markets: Vancouver (0.8 per cent), Quebec City (0.5 per cent), Ottawa-Gatineau (0.2 per cent) and Victoria and Halifax (0.1 per cent).”

Photo By: Poshmoggy

A TEXTBOOK MARKET?

What happened to the expected Alberta real estate boom?
Market influencers tempering demand
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald April 11, 2013

CALGARY — Several ‘market influencers’ have kept the reins on the expected Alberta real estate boom, says a new report on the housing market.

The report, by Don Campbell, senior analyst and founding partner of the Real Estate Investment Network, said debate is raging about why the market isn’t booming like it did in 2006 and 2007 when the job market and population in the province were growing at the same rates as they are today.

“The real difference this time is hidden in the strong forces of today’s market influencers. It is very true that the market drivers are all in place to support a large growth in housing purchase demand and price increases, in fact it is a textbook market for a boom,” said Campbell.

“In Alberta, the GDP and job growth have driven very strong population growth which has led to low vacancy rates not experienced in this province for many years. Street rents are jumping due to the rental supply/demand inequality. So, on the surface that means Alberta should be experiencing another one of those unsustainable booms. Well why isn’t it? And is there one still in the works?”

He said certain wild cards can throw a market off its prescribed cycle for periods of time.

“So, despite all of the market drivers being in place to push the Alberta real estate market into its next boom cycle the market continues to underperform its economics. Why? Simply, there are market influencers in play and that is why we are not yet seeing the expected rush into the market demand,” he said.

They include the once-bitten, twice-shy attitude equating into a local lack of confidence in the market. Many Albertans made their first home purchases during the previous boom. They were hit hard when the financial crash came. This has tempered enthusiasm for the market now.

Tighter mortgage qualification rules have also tempered market demand.

Overall consumer confidence in real estate is taking a hit with many recent reports and headlines on the state of the Canadian market saying it may be over-priced or overvalued.

A large portion of Alberta population growth is from two key demographics who are less likely to buy a house immediately — immigrants and ‘Echo-boomers’.

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, total MLS sales year-to-date in the city until April 10 were 5,798 transactions, up 3.72 per cent compared with the same period last year.

The average sale price this year has risen by 8.08 per cent to $451,246 while the median price is up by 5.92 per cent to $397,000.

Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB’s chief economist, said the organization never felt the economy was about to boom, based on several factors.

“The first consideration is the economy,” she said. “In the 2005-2007 period, we had significant growth in both the oil and natural gas sector, economic growth as of late has only been driven by the oil sector. While this has helped support growth, there have been some challenges regarding bottlenecks and price discounts which has impacted employment growth prospects in the province. We also shouldn’t forget that the natural gas market continues to struggle. Our economic growth is progressing but at a slower pace, and forecasters also estimated that employment growth and net migration would ease this year, two factors pointing towards slower demand growth in housing.

“The next consideration is fundamentals in the housing market. Inventory levels were generally more elevated in the resale market, and it has taken some time to absorb some of the excess in the market. While this has occurred primarily in the single-family market, it has only started to spillover into the surrounding areas, the condominium market, and the new home market. When considering all the options available to consumers, there was sufficient choice to prevent any significant shortage in the entire housing market, which was the case in 2006-2007, causing a unsustainable jump in home prices.”

She said she is not surprised that the market didn’t boom, given the economic backdrop and current supply in the market.

Lai Sing Louie, regional economist for the Prairies and Territories for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., said market conditions in Alberta’s housing markets today are different from the boom.

“Some of the differences include higher household debt as well as more prudent lending conditions today. Also, some of the transactions in that period were investor driven and we have not experienced that to the same extent today,” he said.

The underlying economics and Market Drivers state that the market should be on fire, just like it was back in 2006 and 2007 – that is unless you begin to factor in these influencers, said Campbell.

“Let us make sure we are analyzing today’s markets with today’s conditions and not compare them to previous boom-bust cycles. Each cycle has its own influencers that either heat up or cool down a market and this current cycle from 2006 until today is the perfect proof of that,” he said.

“As long as the drivers are strong, the market is structurally strong, no matter what the influencers are doing. The concern should arise when the drivers are weak and the influencers are pushing the market upwards with no support. That is not what is happening in Alberta right now; in fact, the drivers remain strong despite the headlines.”

Ben Brunnen, chief economist with the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, said the province is definitely seeing all of the signs of strong economic and potentially housing growth.

“Net inter-provincial migration, population growth is up. Unemployment is low and GDP growth is relatively high,” said Brunnen. “I think we’re seeing probably a bit more of a cautious consumer out there. I do think we’ll see some strong real estate activity happening in Calgary but not like in the boom.

“I think there continues to be some caution in the market for a number of reasons. While Alberta’s economy is good, the global economy continues to be shaky, especially Europe and the United States. So people don’t have that strong confidence per se that this economic activity is going to be sufficiently robust that they should buy a house.”

BOOM BOOM POW

Alberta economy continuing its 'impressive boom'
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald March 19, 2013

CALGARY — Any dark clouds that are currently hanging over Alberta will clear by 2014, paving the way for strong business and consumer activity, says a report by RBC Economics.

The bank’s latest Provincial Outlook, released Tuesday, said the province’s economy will continue its “impressive boom” through 2013, after leading the country’s economic growth in 2012, despite facing challenges.

RBC forecasts a provincial real GDP growth rate of three per cent due to strong crude oil production as well as high levels of capital investment, employment and population growth. This will be second in the country behind the 5.1 per cent growth expected in Newfoundland & Labrador.

RBC is predicting Alberta will lead the country in economic growth of 4.2 per cent in 2014.

In December, RBC forecast growth of 3.5 per cent this year for the province. The forecast for 2014 has remained the same.

“Even though the province recently announced a $2 billion budget deficit, Alberta is unquestionably in the midst of an impressive economic boom – particularly with capital investment fuelling manufacturing and wholesalers’ sales. Attractive employment opportunities are also bringing new migrants to the province, boosting population growth and in turn, consumer spending,” said Craig Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist at RBC. “As the economy continues to thrive across the majority of key industries, Alberta will remain at the top-end of Canada’s economic growth rankings this year.”

Economic growth in the province in 2011 was 5.1 per cent followed by 3.5 per cent last year.

Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial, said Alberta’s economy is moderating somewhat.

“So I think we will see probably a slower year for growth than what we saw in 2011 or 2012,” said Hirsch. “A lot of that of course prompted by those softer energy prices and maybe a little bit of pullback by the provincial government. But I think we’re still going to see kind of a nice moderate healthy level of growth of around 2.5 to three per cent.

“Going forward beyond that it gets trickier and we don’t really do forecasts beyond 2013 but I would still see 2014 as a pretty good year ... It’s not going to feel quite like the boom years of 2006, 2007 either. We’re just going to have nice healthy moderate growth.”

RBC said there are a few weak spots in Alberta’s economic outlook. Investment intentions in the oil and gas sector are essentially flat for 2013. RBC said Alberta’s energy developers’ plans are being weighed down by rapidly rising energy production in the U.S., pipeline bottlenecks and the ‘bitumen bubble’, all of which contributed to lower crude oil prices in Canada relative to global benchmarks late in 2012.

“Weaker than expected oil prices put a multibillion dollar hole in Alberta government’s revenues, and led to a 2013 provincial budget that detailed renewed public sector spending restraint,” said Wright. “Still, any pullback in capital spending will be short-lived as pipeline issues are addressed and crude oil price relationships normalize.”

RBC trimmed its real GDP growth forecast for Canada to 1.8 per cent through 2013, following softer-than-expected growth in 2012. For 2014, it is forecasting 2.9 per cent growth across the country. In December, it forecast growth of 2.4 per cent this year and 2.8 per cent in 2014.

“After boasting a relatively strong economic performance over the past several years, Canada’s economy hit a speed bump in late 2012,” said Wright. “That said, financial conditions continue to support growth. As confidence recovers, business spending should accelerate, albeit at a less rapid pace than we saw in the early days of expansion.”

BEST IN SHOW

Calgary year-over-year housing sales growth best in Canada
Near 15% hike in MLS transactions
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald October 15, 2012

CALGARY — While most of Canada’s major centres recorded year-over-year MLS sales declines in September, Calgary went against the tide with the highest annual growth rate in the country.

According to the Canadian Real Estate Association, MLS sales in Calgary rose by 14.8 per cent from September 2011 to 2,054 transactions.

In contrast, sales across the country fell by 15.1 per cent to 32,192.

But the average MLS sale price in Calgary dipped by 0.9 per cent in September to $402,756.

Nationally, the average price rose by 1.1 per cent to $355,777.

CREA said Monday that more than half of all local markets in the country posted sales declines of at least 10 per cent on an annual basis.

“New mortgage rules continue to keep a lid on national sales activity,” said Wayne Moen, CREA’s president.

The organization’s chief economist, Gregory Klump, said national activity is likely to remain down from year-ago levels over the fourth quarter of this year.

“In the shadow of the latest mortgage rule changes, activity has ratcheted down from higher levels seen during the fourth quarter last year,” he said. “While some first-time homebuyers may no longer qualify for mortgage financing under the new rules, it is likely that many others are stepping back and reassessing how much house they can realistically afford, which is one of the things new mortgage rules were designed to do.”

In Alberta, MLS sales rose by 7.7 per cent from last year to 4,714 while the average price increased slightly by 0.2 per cent to $355,127.

“While the 15 per cent year-over-year drop in sales suggests Canadian housing is making like Felix Baumgartner, falling past the speed of sound, the details are not nearly as weak, and still suggest that the housing market is simply gliding to a lower altitude,” said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist with BMO Capital Markets.

On Monday, CREA also released its MLS Home Price Index. The national index rose 3.9 per cent year-over-year in September. This was the fifth time in as many months that the annual gain shrank and marks the slowest rate of increase since May 2011.

Regina led the country with a 14.2 per cent hike followed by Calgary at 6.5 per cent.

CALGARY DREAMIN'

Why Calgary is an entrepreneur’s dream
By: Jameson Berkow
Financial Post Oct 14, 2012

CALGARY — Naheed Nenshi, the mayor of Calgary, thinks he knows why his city’s entrepreneurial culture is becoming so robust, despite the cold winters Calgarians endure.

“The line I usually use when people ask me why Calgary has fostered such an entrepreneurial culture is this is a place where nobody cares who your daddy is or where you went to school. I say it so often that it sounds a bit trite, but I don’t think it is true everywhere,” he said, gazing briefly at the September sunshine bathing his private city hall veranda to reflect on his answer before continuing.

“It is also a very interesting and weird unintended consequence of the way our downtown has been built,” he adds, referring to Calgary’s Plus-15 network of elevated walkways connecting the city’s skyscrapers.

The walkways allow office dwellers to attend meetings in other buildings without having to brave the city’s bitter prairie winters. “Our built environment has actually in some ways molded our business culture,” Mr. Nenshi said.

Calgary’s entrepreneurial culture is even easier to spot than the hundreds of steel and glass connections crisscrossing the city’s core. It hits new Calgarians like myself almost instantly; that infectious feeling of limitless raw potential, of broken barriers to success and endless possibilities.

This is a city of risk takers, of dreamers and of visionary builders. All of these enviable traits have, however, been relatively unknown in the rest of Canada, until now.

In a survey by Canadian Federation of Independent Businesses for the Financial Post, Calgary ranked as the 13th most entrepreneurial city in Canada this year. Not exactly a statistic to brag about, although it is a dramatic jump from No. 35 last year.

“The story on Calgary is getting out,” said Mike Fotheringham, research manager at Calgary Economic Development. “People across the country are starting to understand what is going on in this city.”

Bankruptcy rates here are among the lowest in the country at just 1%, and have fallen every year since 2002. Retail sales growth also tends to be more than double the national average of 3%, reflecting Calgary’s growing affluence.

“There is a sense that if you’ve got an idea, this is the place to make it happen and I think the stats reveal exactly that,” Mr. Fotheringham said.

What the statistics do not reveal is another sense, of the opportunities here being as rich and thick as the bitumen that powers Calgary’s massive oil towers. The sense is not only that such opportunities exist, but that achieving even the loftiest of them can be done without the vast support networks required elsewhere.

One of the largest buyout deals in Canadian corporate history — the $19-billion Suncor Energy Inc. takeover of Petro-Canada — was struck by four men sitting in a small conference room in a posh downtown hotel.

“Other steps in the acquisition had to be taken, but things were essentially wrapped up in that meeting in the Palliser, working out the details with no lawyers, accountants, advisors or second guessers anywhere in sight,” Rick George, longtime Suncor chief executive, wrote in his newly released memoir Sun Rise. “I honestly don’t believe an agreement of this magnitude could have proceeded as it did … in any other city. The city of Calgary has a tradition of openness and trust, placing as much value on a handshake as on any multi-page contract.”

That tradition extends well beyond the gargantuan oil and gas players. When Victoria MacLean co-founded Startup Calgary a little more than two years ago, she counted 45 small technology-focused companies in the city. Her latest count totaled 162.

“The people here get great exposure to big data, to enterprise-level data, so they can really start to see and identify solutions for big problems here,” said the outgoing president of Startup Calgary.

Ms. MacLean is leaving to focus full time on BeauCoo, her latest startup which seeks to build a social network for women of similar body types to share style and shopping information. The company raised a $1.1-million seed funding round from Calgary-based Zinc Ventures last month and plans to launch its mobile app in a few days.

Ms. MacLean considers herself lucky, because early-stage funding is still an issue for Calgary startups with most of North America still standing between them and Toronto, where most of the country’s sources of venture capital and angel investors remain.

“Entrepreneurs will always complain about a lack of angel investors because that is just a translation of ‘nobody likes my idea,’ ” said Mayor Nenshi, who was a business professor at Mount Royal University before entering politics. “The real issue is the second and third rounds of financing.”

That has long been the issue for startups nationwide and remains one of the primary reasons why many Canadian small businesses end up being acquired by larger foreign entities before they reach their full potential. Yet it is precisely that constant struggle for recognition — and the cash that comes with it — that helps Calgary entrepreneurs to stand out and pushes them to achieve.

“There is something of an insecurity complex that runs through the city,” said Alex Middleton, chair of TEDxYYC, the local chapter of a global organization famous for hosting world-class discussions in world-class cities. “That allows you to have more of a clean slate here than in other cities. You really can come to Calgary and reinvent yourself in that ‘maverick’ sense.”

Despite its growing stature, Calgary is still not Alberta’s most entrepreneurial major city. Edmonton scored 8th in CFIB’s 2012 rankings of Canada’s most entrepreneurial cities and even in 2011 it was 11, still two spots higher than its southern neighbour’s most recent title.

“Calgary culture-wise is moving towards a big city mentality, whereas in Edmonton you have more of an independent vibe,” said Ken Bautista, co-founder and chief executive of Startup Edmonton. “It isn’t about being a big city though, it is about being a great one.”

Photo By: Portraitsteve

OIL RICHES

Alberta’s oil riches driving Canada’s economy: BMO
By: Lauren Krugel
Canadian Press Oct 9, 2012

CALGARY — Canada’s economic growth is being driven by resource-rich Western provinces, according to a Bank of Montreal report released Tuesday.

Alberta leads the pack, with the bank predicting 3.5% real GDP growth this year, falling back a bit to 2.9% in 2013.

“The energy sector remains the key driver of economic activity in the province, with crude bitumen production up 16% year-over-year through the first half of the year, and the Energy Resources Conservation Board expecting oil sands output to more than double by 2021,” said economist Robert Kavcic.

The energy sector’s strength has attracted workers from elsewhere in Canada to Alberta, which has the country’s lowest unemployment rate at 4.4%.

But BMO Kavcic says the industry faces some risk.

“Cost pressures could again pick up, though oil sands operations are generally viewed as economical at prices above US$80 (per barrel),” he said.

“Also, wrangling over new pipeline capacity continues.”

Production from the Bakken, a massive oil deposit that stretches through parts of Montana, North Dakota and Saskatchewan, is filling up existing pipelines and causing Canadian producers to get a lower price for the heavy crude they produce.


“Estimates suggest that production in Western Canada could be negatively impacted by 2015/16 if there is not enough new pipeline capacity put in place.”

BMO says Canada’s overall real GDP growth is expected to be 2.2% in 2012, with the Western provinces all topping that rate.

Saskatchewan, where oil and gas extraction and potash and uranium mining are big economic drivers, is expected to see growth of 3.1% this year.

For British Columbia, it sees real GDP growth of 2.5% and for Manitoba, growth of 2.6%.

Further east it’s a different story. BMO sees Ontario posting growth of two per cent and the economies of Quebec and the Atlantic provinces growing at less than two per cent in 2012.

The report says fiscal restraint, the high loonie and sluggish U.S. demand are putting a damper on growth in Central Canada.

Kavcic noted some cause for optimism in Ontario’s auto sector.

“Auto producers continue to invest in North America and, despite a strong currency and higher labour costs compared to the southern U.S. and Mexico, Ontario is no exception,” he said.

“Toyota, for example, is expanding production at its Woodstock assembly plant — a project worth about $100-million and 400 jobs. Plus, the CAW and Big Three automakers recently reached new four-year contract agreements. Output in the auto sector was up a solid 20 per cent year-over-year through August.”

Also Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund trimmed its global growth forecasts in its quarterly economic outlook.

The IMF predicts the global economy will expand 3.3% this year, down from the estimate of 3.5% growth it issued in July. Its forecast for growth in 2013 is 3.6%, down from 3.9% three months ago and 4.1% in April.

Photo By: inertiachick

FUEL EXPANSION

Calgary and Edmonton to lead Canadian economic growth
Energy-related investment to fuel expansion
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald September 18, 2012

CALGARY — Calgary and Edmonton are forecast to be the fastest growing economies in Canada over the next four years, according to the Conference Board of Canada’s Metropolitan Outlook-Autumn 2012 released Tuesday.

“Energy-related investment in Alberta is expected to stay vibrant throughout the next four years. For instance, about $29-billion worth of energy-related projects are now underway in the province, and nearly $86-billion worth of projects are proposed for the future,” said Mario Lefebvre, Director, Centre for Municipal Studies, for the board.

“All this investment will continue to be a boon to Calgary’s economy, which remains the services hub of the province’s energy sector.”

The board is forecasting Calgary to have the best economic growth in the country over 2013-2016 at an average of 3.7 per cent followed by Edmonton’s average annual real GDP growth at 3.5 per cent during the forecast period.

For this year, the board is predicting Edmonton will lead the country with 4.6 per cent growth followed by Calgary at 3.8 per cent.

“Without a doubt, I expect that Alberta is going to be the envy of the country moving forward into closing out 2012 and into 2013,” said Ben Brunnen, chief economist with the Calgary Chamber of Commerce. “While the growth will be the strongest in the country, particularly for our cities, that doesn’t necessarily mean that we’re in great economic times.

“There are some storm clouds on the horizon. I expect fully we’ll see a recession in Europe. The Chinese economy is slowing substantially. And the U.S. has its election coming forward. What this means is there’s going to be a dampening on economic growth globally and as a consequence it’s going to affect Canada. That said, the investment in the province has been strong to date and should continue to be strong.”

The board said Calgary is coming off a “very strong performance” in 2011 with economic growth at 5.0 per cent. The strong growth expected during the forecast period will be “helped along by strong consumer spending and spinoff benefits from the energy sector.”

Employment growth is forecast for 4.1 per cent this year in Calgary followed by annual growth rates of 1.9 per cent, 2.6 per cent, 2.5 per cent, and 2.1 per cent from 2013 to 2016. And retail sales are forecast to grow by 9.2 per cent this year followed by growth of 6.2 per cent, 5.3 per cent, 5.3 per cent and 4.8 per cent during the forecast period.

Also on Tuesday, a report by TD Economics said Canada will likely experience a shift from household and government-led growth towards exports and investment, but global headwinds appear to have delayed this transition until the first half of 2013.

In the meantime, the report said, the economy will be stuck in neutral and Canada’s economic expansion will be constrained to a pace near two per cent.

“In the first half of 2012, governments constrained their spending while households pared back their rate of borrowing and spent at a miserly pace. While most major housing markets have held up reasonably well, there are signs — most notably in Vancouver — that markets have reached a peak,” said TD Bank Group’s chief economist Craig Alexander. “And in the near term, the slowdown is expected to broaden across the country, following the implementation of tighter rules on insured-mortgage lending this past summer.

“Canada’s economy has turned out a relatively strong performance in recent years, but the growth has not been broadly based and imbalances have amassed. On the plus side, governments and households, which have been pulling Canada’s economy along by the coat-tails for years, have begun to address their debt challenges. Recent changes to mortgage borrowing rules will help to address part of the over-valuation in housing markets. Going forward, it will be equally critical for the economy to transition to more export and investment-led growth.”

Photo By : Bulliver

LESS WILD, MORE URBAN

Alberta housing leads nation: CMHC
Latest forecast predicts more construction in Western Canada
By Lewis Kelly
Edmonton Journal August 15, 2012

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation forecast Tuesday that housing construction and sales will increase modestly in 2013 in Alberta while activity in most of the country slows down.

The Crown corporation's latest housing market outlook predicts 400 more housing starts in 2013 in Alberta than 2012. That represents just 1.25-per-cent growth, but CMHC predicts national construction activity to decline 6.8 per cent over the same period.

"The economy in Alberta has been improving and is expected to be one of the leaders in economic growth," said Richard Cho, senior market analyst with CMHC's prairie division. "That will naturally support the housing market."

Cho said CMHC's forecast for Alberta hinges on continued job production, international and interprovincial immigration boosting population growth, and the price of oil staying high enough to encourage continued investment in the province's energy sector.

Oil has been trading around $90 a barrel since early August after reaching a yearly low of $79.69 in June. CMHC forecasts employment growth of 2.5 per cent in Edmonton and 2.9 per cent in Calgary in 2013, and net migration growth of 28 per cent to 57,800 in the coming year.

Tuesday's edition of the corporation's outlook, released four times a year, predicts just over 32,000 housing starts in the coming year for the province, 11,000 of those in Edmonton. The forecast calls for the resale market to also grow, reaching 59,800 by the end of this year and 61,000 in 2013.

Cho said the market has favoured buyers until recently and should move to a balanced state, boosting price growth in the process. The CMHC's forecast calls for prices to rise 2.5 per cent this year and 2.8 per cent in 2013 across Alberta, bringing the average home sale to $372,300.

The provincial picture differs from the national numbers. CMHC predicted 193,100 units of housing will get built across Canada in 2013 - down around seven per cent both from previous forecasts and 2012's forecast numbers.

Cho said the new federal mortgage rules introduced in July, which knock five years off the maximum amortization period, will soften demand for housing, but other factors ultimately carry more weight in real estate.

"The rules will certainly have an impact on housing demand, but it isn't the only factor" he said. "Housing demand is also supported by growth in employment and earnings as well as migration flows and relatively low mortgage rates."

READING THE SIGNS

Alberta housing market most affordable in Canada: RBC
Resale activity picking up in Calgary
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald May 29, 2012

CALGARY — Housing market activity in Alberta is showing increasing signs of strength as it benefits from attractive affordability and nation-leading economic growth, according to the latest Housing Trends and Affordability Report released Tuesday by RBC Economics.

RBC’s housing affordability measures for Alberta, which capture the province’s proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a home at market value, remained among the lowest, if not the lowest, in the country in the first quarter of this year.

And RBC said the “long-awaited resurgence” of the Calgary-housing market appears to have been launched in recent months as home resales advanced by a “sizable” 7.4 per cent in the first quarter relative to the fourth quarter of last year, and April activity showed even greater strength.

In fact, Calgary bucked the national trend and showed improved affordability in the first quarter.

“Homebuyers in the Calgary area are motivated by a booming provincial economy, strong job creation, and attractive housing affordability,” said the report. “Despite higher resales lately, home prices so far have remained flat for the most part, with some weakness observed in condominium apartments. This has kept housing affordability in check at some of the better levels among Canada’s largest cities.”

It said affordability improved modestly in the first quarter in Calgary. RBC housing affordability measures show the proportion of median pre-tax household income that would be required to service the cost of a mortgage payment. RBC said that in Calgary measures compared with a year ago edged lower for condominium apartments (0.4 per cent) and two-storey homes (0.3 per cent), and stayed unchanged for detached bungalows.

“We expect the market resurgence to continue for the remainder of this year,” it said.

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, MLS sales in Calgary so far this month from May 1-28 are up 27.90 per cent from the same period a year ago with 2,104 transactions and the average residential sale price in the city has increased by 3.03 per cent to $445,120.

Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB’s chief economist, said the city has experienced positive economic growth with the expansion in jobs, full-time jobs in particular.

“And this really has encouraged some demand into housing. We’ve had low interest rates . . . We’ve had a signficantly strong spring season compared to other years,” she said. “It’s also important to note that we’ve been pretty slow to recover in the first place. So there was a lot of hesitation out there.

“But as things have started to improve in the economy, people are starting to re-invest.”

Lurie said she doesn’t expect to see any change in the demand for housing in the city in the near future.

Robert Hogue, senior economist with RBC, said attractive affordability and a strong provincial economy are playing significant roles in driving Alberta’s home resale activity, up 11.5 per cent year-over-year in the first quarter and showing no sign of easing in April.

“We expect that, going forward, Alberta’s housing market will remain on this bright path, particularly as the province continues to lead the country in economic growth,” he said.

The measure for benchmark detached bungalows in Alberta rose by 0.1 percentage points to 32.2 per cent, while the measure for condominium apartments marked a small improvement, decreasing 0.3 percentage points to 20.2 per cent. The two-storey home category was the only measure that remained unchanged at 35.3 per cent.

RBC’s housing affordability measure for the benchmark detached bungalow in Canada’s largest cities is as follows: Vancouver 88.9 per cent (up 3.1 percentage points from the previous quarter), Toronto 53.4 per cent (up 1.2 percentage points), Ottawa 41.8 per cent (up 0.9 percentage points), Montreal 41.4 per cent (up 1.2 percentage points), Calgary 36.7 per cent (unchanged) and Edmonton 32.4 per cent (down 0.4 percentage points).

The following are average prices in the first quarter of this year, affordability measure, and year-over-year change in the affordability measure:

Detached Bungalow

Canada, $360,500, 43.1 per cent, 1.5 per cent.

Alberta, $347,900, 32.2 per cent, 0.1 per cent.

Calgary, $423,000, 36.7 per cent, 0.2 per cent.

Standard Two-Storey

Canada, $403,600, 48.7 per cent, 1.2 per cent.

Alberta, $372,800, 35.3 per cent, 0.2 per cent.

Calgary, $418,200, 37.5 per cent, 0.1 per cent.

Standard Condominium

Canada, $235,800, 28.8 per cent, 0.3 per cent.

Alberta, $212,300, 20.2 per cent, — 0.6 per cent.

Calgary, $248,100, 22.2 per cent, — 0.4 per cent.

Photo By: woody1778a