A BIG HIKE

Calgary house price growth outpacing rest of Canada
9.6% annual hike for repeat home sales to record level
BY MARIO TONEGUZZI 
CALGARY HERALD MARCH 12, 2014

CALGARY - Calgary’s housing market continues to shine compared with the rest of the country as local residental real estate prices showed the highest growth rate in Canada in February, according to a report released Wednesday on repeat home sales.

Calgary prices rose by 9.6 per cent year-over-year and by 1.1 per cent month-over-month - both the best in the country and to an all-time high for the city, said the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index.

Nationally, of 11 centres surveyed, prices were up 5.0 per cent from last year and by 0.3 per cent from January.

The index is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation.

The trend in price increases in Calgary does not appear to be changing in March. According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, so far this month from March 1-11, the average MLS sale price in the city is up 5.28 per cent from the same time a year ago to $480,345 while the median price has increased by 7.25 per cent to $429,000. CREB stats indicate there have been 796 MLS sales so far this month, up 10.71 per cent from last year but new listings are down 4.05 per cent to 1,114 and active listings are off by 18.80 per cent to 3,049.

The Teranet-National Bank report said that for the second month in a row, prices for Canada as a whole rose to an all-time high, though new records were set in only two of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed - Vancouver (for a fourth straight month) and Calgary (for the first time since September 2007).

The gain from a year earlier was well above the cross-country average in two of the 11 markets, Calgary and Vancouver (7.7 per cent). It was slightly above the average in Toronto (6.1 per cent) and Edmonton (5.3 per cent), equal to the average in Hamilton (5.0 per cent) and below it in Winnipeg (3.5 per cent) and Montreal (1.9 per cent).

In Halifax (4.7 per cent) and Ottawa-Gatineau (0.6 per cent), prices were down from a year earlier for a second consecutive month. In Victoria (3.4 per cent), home prices have been down from a year earlier for 12 months now. Quebec City posted its first 12 month deflation in 15 years (2.0 per cent). It is the first time since October 2009 that there is price deflation in at least four of the regions covered, said the report.

“In February the east-west dichotomy became more pronounced than ever,” it said.

Home prices were up from the month before in all five markets of Western Canada - Calgary, Vancouver and Victoria (0.9 per cent), Edmonton (0.6 per cent) and Winnipeg (0.5 per cent). The rise in Victoria ended a run of four consecutive monthly declines. For Vancouver it was the 10th consecutive monthly increase. In the six markets of central and eastern Canada, the only monthly rise was in Montreal (0.7 per cent), the second advance after six months of flat or declining prices. Prices were down 0.1 per cent in Toronto, making February the fourth month without a gain in the last six. For Ottawa-Gatineau (0.8 per cent) it was the sixth decline in a row, for Quebec City (1.7 per cent) the sixth in seven months. For Halifax (1.7 per cent) it was the third decline in a row, said the report.

BY COMPARISON

Calgary prices for repeat home sales on the rise
Nationally annual hike is smallest since November 2009
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald May 14, 2013

CALGARY — Prices for repeat home sales in Calgary were up 5.5 per cent in April compared with a year ago, according to the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index.

The index, released Tuesday, also said prices in the city increased by 1.2 per cent from the previous month.

The index is estimated by tracking ob­served or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index.

Nationally, in 11 markets surveyed, prices were up 2.0 per cent on an annual basis and by 0.2 per cent month-over-month.

The year-over-year hike in Canada was the smallest 12-month rise since November 2009.

“By way of comparison, the Case-Shiller home price index of 20 U.S. metropolitan markets was up 9.3 per cent from a year earlier in February (the latest available reading),” said the Teranet-National Bank report.

In Canada, the rise over the 12 months ending in April exceeded the cross-country average in seven of the 11 markets surveyed for the national composite index: Quebec City (6.1 per cent), Calgary (5.5 per cent), Hamilton (5.4 per cent), Winnipeg (4.4 per cent), Toronto (4.3 per cent), Edmonton (3.6 per cent) and Halifax (2.8 per cent).

The report said price increases lagged the average in Ottawa-Gatineau (1.5 per cent) and Montreal (1.3 per cent). Prices were down from a year earlier in Victoria (3.3 per cent) and Vancouver (1.5 per cent). For Vancouver it was the ninth month of 12-month deflation.

Amna Asaf, economist with Capital Economics, said house price growth in Calgary and Edmonton have continued to accelerate, following from their housing downturn of two years ago.

“Although house prices rose in most of the cities, we suspect that as home sales drop, the former will eventually respond,” said Asaf. “Based on the figures already reported by the regional real estate boards, both Toronto and Vancouver posted fewer existing home sales in April compared to a year ago, although the pace of decline has eased. We suspect that national existing home sales . . . may have dropped at a more modest pace of around two per cent year-on-year.

“If we are correct about declining home sales this year, the month’s supply of inventory is likely to rise much further. Accordingly, we suspect that house prices will eventually begin to decline outright.”

On Tuesday, federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said he has no plans to intervene in Canada’s housing market, which he says is unfolding in a healthy way.

While some observers are expressing fears the bubble is about to burst, Flaherty said the market is responding the way he envisioned when he tightened lending rules last year.

The Teranet-National Bank index said the national monthly change was the weakest in the 15 years since the inception of the index with the exception of April 2009 when the country was in recession.

“In three markets considered lively, the monthly gain exceeded one per cent: Winnipeg (1.3 per cent), Edmonton (1.3. per cent), Calgary (1.2 per cent). Excluding these three regions, the Composite index would have been flat in April. Lesser monthly increases were recorded in Hamilton (0.6 per cent), Montreal (0.5 per cent) and Toronto (0.4 per cent). Prices were down from the month before in five markets: Vancouver (0.8 per cent), Quebec City (0.5 per cent), Ottawa-Gatineau (0.2 per cent) and Victoria and Halifax (0.1 per cent).”

Photo By: Poshmoggy

TIK TOK TO RATE HIKE

Clock ticking for interest rate hikes
Garry Marr, Financial Post
Published: Friday, February 12, 2010

It's probably time to start the countdown on interest rates going up.

The Bank of Canada only pledged -- conditionally -- to keep its record-low lending rate until the end of the second quarter, so that leaves us with slightly more than four months before the housing market falls apart. At least that's what some national magazines and economists predict will happen when rates start to rise.

"Some people say they could go up in April, but I don't buy that," says Benjamin Tal, senior economist with CIBC World Markets and one of the more sane voices out there. He predicts a pullback in housing, but not the collapse we've seen in the United States.

So, what do you do in the face of this inevitable march of interest-rate hikes coming our way, likely at the Bank of Canada's first meeting in July?

"I think people will start locking in their rates very soon and that's already happening," says Mr. Tal, referring to the variable-rate crowd that has mortgages tied to prime. "The five-year [fixed] rate [mortgage] will be moving [up] well ahead of the bank rate in anticipation of an increase."

While locking in is extremely tempting in this market -- given a five-year mortgage is as low as 3.8% -- a floating-rate mortgage can be had for almost half that. Vince Gaetano, a vice-president of Monster Mortgage, said he's seeing variable rates for as low 30 points off prime, or 1.95%.

The problem for many Canadians who negotiated variable-rate mortgages in the past year, and still don't want to lock in, is they are stuck in contracts that have them paying a rate as much as 100 basis points (one percentage point) above prime. The reason they call it a five-year term is because that's the length of the contract.

But Mr. Gaetano says just break that mortgage. If you are in a variable-rate contract, the penalty is three payments. To go from a contract that is 100 basis points above prime to one that is 30 points below, could have you recoup your money in less than a year.

"There is a large amount of people refinancing to take advantage of these variable rates. We've seen a full-point comeback in the borrower's favour. We'll never see 1.95% ever again," says Mr. Gaetano.

One option for consumers who can't make up their minds is to apply to the bank for a new mortgage and have the financial institution hold the rate for as much 120 days.

"There will be a credit bureau check on your name and it could lower your credit score if you don't use money," says Mr. Gaetano, referring to the potential pitfalls of looking elsewhere for a new rate.

The reality is most consumers, once they have their mortgage, stay put and wait for renewal. The banks have a loyalty record that would make any industry drool. According to the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals, 93% of borrowers who renew on schedule stay with the same lender. Even among those who renew early, 81% stay with same financial institution.

As you consider where to go next with your mortgage, you should remain open to switching financial institutions if it saves you money. Sometimes there are costs, but the potential savings from a better rate can offset those costs.

Martin Beaudry, vice-president of ING Direct Canada, says his company will now hold your rate for 120 days by just applying online. You don't even need to fill out a full mortgage application. ING holds the rate on any term, or even the spread between a variable-rate and prime, which is now 20 basis points.

"There is no downside, but less than half of people take advantage of rate guarantees. People deal with renewals less than 30 days before the maturity date," says Mr. Beaudry.

Most banks will guarantee you a rate 90 days in advance of your mortgage coming due. Why wait until the last minute and why stay with same institution if you are not getting best rate going?

Dusty wallet Having trouble making ends meets because of property taxes? If you are a senior citizen, some jurisdictions will allow you to forgo the payments with the amount owing attached as a lien on the house. Make sure to check the interest rate they charge on that money owed or your heirs could be left with a lot less house -- if you care about that.

Photo by: Magda.Indigo