THE SURGE

Calgary home prices continue to surge
Sustained supply imbalance pushes prices higher
BY MARIO TONEGUZZI, 
CALGARY HERALD JULY 9, 2014

CALGARY - A sustained supply imbalance is pushing residential real estate prices higher, says a new survey released Wednesday by Royal LePage.

The company’s House Price Survey and Market Survey Forecast said the Calgary market experienced strong year-over-year price increases in the second quarter of this year across all housing types.

Detached bungalows increased by 9.7 per cent to $501,200 and condominiums rose by 9.3 per cent to $286,422. Standard two-storey homes increased by 7.9 per cent to $489,589.

“Calgary has had a serious inventory shortage dating back to the beginning of 2013, which combined with strong demand from prospective homebuyers is responsible for pushing prices skyward,” said Ted Zaharko, broker and owner of Royal LePage Foothills, in a news release. “We definitely have one of the hottest real estate markets in the country right now and all housing types are performing very well. Properties are being gobbled up as soon as they hit the market.”

But Zaharko said active listings are starting to climb.

“Slowly but surely we are seeing inventory levels creep up, which is needed to satisfy the pent-up demand after a prolonged period of insufficient supply,” he said.

Royal LePage is forecasting home prices in the city to rise by 5.5 per cent over the year compared with 2013.

“Prices are already up approximately 10 per cent year to date, and we expect this to creep up a little bit more before the end of the year,” said Zaharko. “The Calgary market is vibrant and is home to a strong local economy, fueled by the oil and gas industry. We expect the healthy real estate market to continue for the rest of this year and beyond.”

LOOKING NORTH

Demand increases for resale homes
By Josh Skapin 
Calgary Herald October 4, 2013  

Sales of single-family resale homes climbed 20 per cent in September compared to sales a year earlier, with tight market conditions creating higher prices, says the Calgary Real Estate Board.

“The impact of the floods likely boosted sales throughout July and August, and it appears as though some of that additional demand is starting to ease,” says chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie of CREB.

“Nonetheless, sales growth remains strong, in part because net migration has been stronger than anticipated and rental product is in short supply.”

Net migration describes the inflow of people to the city minus the outflow.

During September, 1,354 homes changed hands, up 20 per cent from 1,126 during the same time in 2012, says CREB.

The benchmark price of single-family homes in Calgary was $463,700 in September, a seven per cent upswing from $432,900 during the same month last year. The benchmark price is that of a typical home based on a formula that uses various factors to ensure accurate comparisons.

“While prices show strong year-over-year gains, if the level of new listings continues to improve relative to sales activity, prices should level off for the remainder of the year,” says Lurie.

Homebuyers have seen about the same selection this year compared to a year ago. There were 18,949 new listings between Jan. 1 and the end of September, a slight decline of 0.2 per cent from 18,881 during the same span in 2012.

However, the market saw a turnaround for new listings in September.

Last month, 1,975 single-family resale homes were added to the market, five per cent more than the 1,887 during this time last year.

From Jan. 1 to the end of September, 13,006 single-family homes were sold on Calgary’s resale market, a seven per cent improvement over the 12,186 transactions during the same period last year.

The quadrant with the most single-family house sales in the city during September was the northwest.

The board’s Zone A, which roughly consists of the northwest, finished the month with 467 transactions.

The next busiest quadrant was the board’s Zone C with 357 homes changing hands during September. This zone roughly consists of southwest Calgary.

At the same time, the board’s Zone D had 299 deals, while 231 homes sold in the board’s Zone B. Zone D roughly covers the southeast quadrant and Zone B is mostly the northeast side.

NORTHWEST LEADS REST

The two communities that saw the highest single-family home sales in the city in September were both in northwest Calgary.

Tuscany led the city in sales with 34 deals at an average sale price of $535,688, says the Calgary Real Estate Board. Panorama Hills had the second highest sales with 31 transactions at an average price of $487,477.

For information, visit creb.com

AGE AND CONDO DEMAND

Condo demand stronger among older Canadians: BMO
Business News Network May 30, 2013

Think the condo market is a young man's game? Think again, a report from BMO says the demand among potential homebuyers for purchasing a condo is greater for Canadians over the age of 50.

Among prospective buyers over the age 50, about 30 percent said they were willing to buy a condo over the next five years, compared to just 17 percent for Canadians under the age 50, the survey said.

The condo market in Canada's cities is also being divided into the haves and have nots, the survey noted.

In both Toronto and Calgary the appetite for buying a condo is on the rise, while demand is falling in Montreal and Vancouver.

About one-third of prospective buyers surveyed in Toronto said they were planning to buy a condo in the next five years, an increase of 11 points from a survey conducted in the fall.

In Calgary, 33 percent of buyers said they were considering purchasing a condo in that time period, up 8 percent from a previous survey.

But the story in Vancouver and Montreal is the complete opposite, with the percentage of buyers thinking of purchasing a condo falling to 28 percent from 33 percent in Vancouver and down 3 points to 24 percent in Montreal.

"Condos remain an affordable alternative to the pricey detached market in some major cities," said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. "For example, a typical Toronto condo today requires just 22 percent of a median family's income to service; Vancouver condos - while more expensive - are still affordable at 28 percent of income.

The report from BMO comes amid a debate among economists and other investors whether the country's housing market is headed for a U.S.-style crash. While many economists on Bay Street say the country is moving towards a "soft landing," a number of investors say that call is too optimistic.

The condo market in major cities such as Toronto and Vancouver, has attracted significant negative attention.

On Wednesday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in its twice-yearly Economic Outlook warned of a potential for a pullback in housing prices in Canada. The OECD said Canada is one of three countries in the 34-member group where "houses appear overvalued but prices are still rising." The Toronto condominium market is the agency's "number one concern."

While a dramatic collapse in the housing market is unlikely, Jarrey said it can't be ruled out completely.

"Nobody saw the huge decline in the United State coming either five or six years ago – not nobody, but very few – and we could be having something very similar but it's not a very likely outcome," he said.

A TEXTBOOK MARKET?

What happened to the expected Alberta real estate boom?
Market influencers tempering demand
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald April 11, 2013

CALGARY — Several ‘market influencers’ have kept the reins on the expected Alberta real estate boom, says a new report on the housing market.

The report, by Don Campbell, senior analyst and founding partner of the Real Estate Investment Network, said debate is raging about why the market isn’t booming like it did in 2006 and 2007 when the job market and population in the province were growing at the same rates as they are today.

“The real difference this time is hidden in the strong forces of today’s market influencers. It is very true that the market drivers are all in place to support a large growth in housing purchase demand and price increases, in fact it is a textbook market for a boom,” said Campbell.

“In Alberta, the GDP and job growth have driven very strong population growth which has led to low vacancy rates not experienced in this province for many years. Street rents are jumping due to the rental supply/demand inequality. So, on the surface that means Alberta should be experiencing another one of those unsustainable booms. Well why isn’t it? And is there one still in the works?”

He said certain wild cards can throw a market off its prescribed cycle for periods of time.

“So, despite all of the market drivers being in place to push the Alberta real estate market into its next boom cycle the market continues to underperform its economics. Why? Simply, there are market influencers in play and that is why we are not yet seeing the expected rush into the market demand,” he said.

They include the once-bitten, twice-shy attitude equating into a local lack of confidence in the market. Many Albertans made their first home purchases during the previous boom. They were hit hard when the financial crash came. This has tempered enthusiasm for the market now.

Tighter mortgage qualification rules have also tempered market demand.

Overall consumer confidence in real estate is taking a hit with many recent reports and headlines on the state of the Canadian market saying it may be over-priced or overvalued.

A large portion of Alberta population growth is from two key demographics who are less likely to buy a house immediately — immigrants and ‘Echo-boomers’.

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, total MLS sales year-to-date in the city until April 10 were 5,798 transactions, up 3.72 per cent compared with the same period last year.

The average sale price this year has risen by 8.08 per cent to $451,246 while the median price is up by 5.92 per cent to $397,000.

Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB’s chief economist, said the organization never felt the economy was about to boom, based on several factors.

“The first consideration is the economy,” she said. “In the 2005-2007 period, we had significant growth in both the oil and natural gas sector, economic growth as of late has only been driven by the oil sector. While this has helped support growth, there have been some challenges regarding bottlenecks and price discounts which has impacted employment growth prospects in the province. We also shouldn’t forget that the natural gas market continues to struggle. Our economic growth is progressing but at a slower pace, and forecasters also estimated that employment growth and net migration would ease this year, two factors pointing towards slower demand growth in housing.

“The next consideration is fundamentals in the housing market. Inventory levels were generally more elevated in the resale market, and it has taken some time to absorb some of the excess in the market. While this has occurred primarily in the single-family market, it has only started to spillover into the surrounding areas, the condominium market, and the new home market. When considering all the options available to consumers, there was sufficient choice to prevent any significant shortage in the entire housing market, which was the case in 2006-2007, causing a unsustainable jump in home prices.”

She said she is not surprised that the market didn’t boom, given the economic backdrop and current supply in the market.

Lai Sing Louie, regional economist for the Prairies and Territories for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., said market conditions in Alberta’s housing markets today are different from the boom.

“Some of the differences include higher household debt as well as more prudent lending conditions today. Also, some of the transactions in that period were investor driven and we have not experienced that to the same extent today,” he said.

The underlying economics and Market Drivers state that the market should be on fire, just like it was back in 2006 and 2007 – that is unless you begin to factor in these influencers, said Campbell.

“Let us make sure we are analyzing today’s markets with today’s conditions and not compare them to previous boom-bust cycles. Each cycle has its own influencers that either heat up or cool down a market and this current cycle from 2006 until today is the perfect proof of that,” he said.

“As long as the drivers are strong, the market is structurally strong, no matter what the influencers are doing. The concern should arise when the drivers are weak and the influencers are pushing the market upwards with no support. That is not what is happening in Alberta right now; in fact, the drivers remain strong despite the headlines.”

Ben Brunnen, chief economist with the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, said the province is definitely seeing all of the signs of strong economic and potentially housing growth.

“Net inter-provincial migration, population growth is up. Unemployment is low and GDP growth is relatively high,” said Brunnen. “I think we’re seeing probably a bit more of a cautious consumer out there. I do think we’ll see some strong real estate activity happening in Calgary but not like in the boom.

“I think there continues to be some caution in the market for a number of reasons. While Alberta’s economy is good, the global economy continues to be shaky, especially Europe and the United States. So people don’t have that strong confidence per se that this economic activity is going to be sufficiently robust that they should buy a house.”