A FLOOD OF HOPE

Alberta an economic leader despite devastating floods
Real GDP growth forecast to be best in Canada in 2014
By Mario Toneguzzi

Calgary Herald September 17, 2013

CALGARY — Not even the worst floods in memory will be enough to restrain Alberta’s economy this year, according to the latest RBC Economics Provincial Outlook released Tuesday.

The report said post-flood spending will more than compensate for the drop in economic activity related to the natural disaster as RBC is upwardly revising its provincial real GDP growth rate to 3.2 per cent in 2013, up from the 3.0 per cent previously projected due to the anticipated economic boost from post-flood spending.

It will be the second best growth rate in the country this year behind Newfoundland & Labrador at 6.0 per cent.

And RBC is forecasting Alberta growth of 4.1 per cent in 2014 to lead the nation.

“There is no doubt Alberta’s economy took a hit after the floods, however, the province has shown tremendous resiliency, and we expect the economy to spring forward for the remainder of 2013,” said Craig Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist for RBC. “Post-flood spending will more than make up for the short-lived economic challenges Alberta experienced at the beginning of the summer.”

Ben Brunnen, a Calgary economic consultant, said Alberta is well-poised for growth into 2014.

“Oil and gas revenues are at their highest point since 2008, and industry re-investment is comparable to 2011 when we saw five per cent GDP growth,” he said.

“People have confidence in the Calgary economy. Unemployment is low, the residential real estate market is strong, and we are at the front end of a major commercial construction cycle.”

Adam Legge, president and chief executive of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, is not as optimistic as the RBC report.

“I think Alberta will do moderate growth next year restrained by lack of market access, continued oil price differentials and a shortage of labour. Flood-related spending does hit GDP but should be viewed as a temporary lift that actually will create reduced GDP impacts in the future.”

RBC said that annual GDP statistics will fully capture the additional spending and work required by the reconstruction, repair and replacement that will take place, but will essentially ignore the destruction of or damage to property.

“Even without this perverse lift that the floods will provide to the provincial economy, Alberta continues to demonstrate substantial and sustained economic momentum,” said Wright.

The report is forecasting 1.8 per cent economic growth for Canada this year followed by 2.8 per cent in 2014.

“In addition to the boost from post-flood spending, we expect Alberta’s economy to benefit from stronger capital investment in oilsands now that earlier ‘bitumen bubble’ concerns have largely receded,” said Wright.

Todd Hirsch, chief economist with ATB Financial, said Alberta’s economy is set to pick up a bit of momentum next year after slowing down slightly in 2013.

“Stronger energy prices than a year ago are largely the reason. However, agriculture has quietly but steadily regained a very strong position in Alberta’s economy,” he said.

“Continued inflow of interprovincial migrants in 2014 should also ensure the housing market remains healthy and balanced.”

Photo By: Marc Shandro

GREY SKIES ARE GONNA CLEAR UP

Flood zone businesses reporting brisk August traffic
Owners relieved by customers’ return
By Amanda Stephenson
Calgary Herald August 14, 2013

CALGARY - In the immediate aftermath of the June flood, Vine Arts was not a busy place.

The Victoria Park wine and spirits store had no water damage, but its regular customers — residents of the many highrise condos and apartments in the neighbourhood — had been evacuated. They weren’t out shopping, and people from other parts of the city weren’t venturing into the flood zone either.

“It was definitely slower. People weren’t sure if we were open or if the street was open,” said Vine Arts owner Jesse Willis.

Fast forward less than two months, and it’s a different story. The shop’s customers have returned, and then some.

“Our sales are really strong, even higher than expected or projected,” Willis said.

Vine Arts’ experience is not unique. Shopping and dining districts around the city — from Inglewood to Kensington to Chinatown — are reporting a strong August so far.

“The general consensus is things are as good, or even a little better, than can be expected. August is usually a slow time for everybody, but it seems like there’s just a little bit more activity around than what people normally experience,” said David Low, executive director of the Victoria Park Business Revitalization Zone.

The extra traffic comes as both a surprise and a relief. Calgary Economic Development estimates 4,000 businesses were affected in some way by the June flooding. Even businesses that experienced no water damage suffered due to prolonged power outages or a simple lack of customers.

“Many of our small businesses lost $10,000, $20,000, even $30,000 in revenue,” said Mary Moran, vice-president of marketing and communication for Calgary Economic Development. “Even though a lot of them were open, they were seeing traffic returning at a very slow rate ... Even in early July, we had some people who were reporting up to a 45 per cent decrease (in sales) year over year.”

Moran said there are likely several reasons traffic might be up in August — including the fact that some flood-affected Calgarians likely cancelled their summer vacations and stayed closer to home this year. Weary of cleaning out basements, they’re finally taking the time to go out to eat and socialize again.

However, Moran said she also hopes businesses are also benefiting from the Rediscover Our City campaign, a massive advertising blitz launched by Calgary Economic Development in late July to drive visitor traffic to flood-affected neighbourhoods.

The campaign — which will soon start promoting communities outside of Calgary like Bragg Creek and High River — aims to clear up misperceptions about the state of certain areas. On social media, the campaign goes by the hashtag #yycisopen.

“We needed to encourage people — give them the confidence that there is enough open for them to have an enjoyable time,” Moran said.

Low said he thinks a lot of Calgarians are being driven by a sense of community to support local businesses that have been through a tough time.

“I think the flood has kicked the idea of supporting local into people’s consciousness just a little bit higher,” he said.

Photo By: Carl Delzer

FLOOD POLICIES

Inner-city river communities say flood policies unfair 
Neighbourhoods band together 
BY ERIKA STARK 
CALGARY HERALD AUGUST 13, 2013

Concerned with maintaining the integrity of their communities, a group of inner-city residents are hoping the provincial government will review what they feel are punitive flood mitigation policies.

The Calgary River Communities Action Group formed last month after a jam-packed community meeting July 24 at the Glencoe Club. There, residents expressed their concern and anger over the province’s disaster recovery program and required flood mitigation standards, said founding member Tony Morris.

Morris and four other community members representing inner-city neighbourhoods including Sunnyside, Erlton, Mission, Elbow Park and Rideau-Roxboro started the group to have a “constructive dialogue” with the government about their concerns. More than 100 people have signed up to volunteer, and there are more than 500 people on the group’s subscription list.

“That their first policy seemed to be very punitive of people who lived in the floodway and people who lived in the flood fringe was very upsetting,” said Morris, a Roxboro resident and local lawyer.

One of the group’s chief concerns is the province’s announcement it will place a notice on a person’s land title if the property is in the floodway or flood fringe, if that property owner used disaster recovery program funding to rebuild or repair their home. According to the province, the notice will be removed for property owners in the flood fringe who have completed the necessary flood mitigation measures.

Emma May, a realtor and fellow founding member, said these notices are unnecessary, and wrong. 

“Anything that sets you up for ineligibility for future disaster funding — we just think that’s fundamentally wrong and we don’t think that’s the direction the government should go in,” she said, adding that flood maps are publicly available and rules around disclosure of flood mitigation measures already exist.

“Homeowners already have huge burdens.”

Some of the group’s other concerns surround the types of material allowed and prohibited for flood mitigation and whether the province will undertake any upstream flood mitigation or prevention measures. 

Morris said upstream flood mitigation is the “only solution” to a future flood disaster.

Looking forward, the group also plans to explore whether overland flood insurance should be adopted in the province.

The group has met and spoken with provincial officials a number of times since the flood to address its concerns, and May said the response has been encouraging.

“They’ve really come forward and stepped up,” she said. “They’ve sent the right people to meet with us.” 

The group met last week with Municipal Affairs Minister Doug Griffiths as well as Andre Corbould, the chief assistant deputy minister for the Alberta Flood Recovery Task Force. Corbould said the meeting helped the province understand some of the community’s concerns.

“It was a productive dialogue from my perspective,” said Corbould, who added that provincial staff will consider the concerns as they review their policies. He will meet again with the group later this month.

“We’ll certainly consider what they’re asking us to consider,” he continued, noting that the province is doing the same in “almost every community” affected by the floods.

May said the group’s efforts will continue as more information emerges about flood recovery. She worries that some of the province’s policies might discourage people looking to move to the riverside neighbourhoods, and that some existing residents will want to leave.

“The biggest thing we want to accomplish is just the preservation of our communities as we knew them,” she said.