THE SURGE

Calgary home prices continue to surge
Sustained supply imbalance pushes prices higher
BY MARIO TONEGUZZI, 
CALGARY HERALD JULY 9, 2014

CALGARY - A sustained supply imbalance is pushing residential real estate prices higher, says a new survey released Wednesday by Royal LePage.

The company’s House Price Survey and Market Survey Forecast said the Calgary market experienced strong year-over-year price increases in the second quarter of this year across all housing types.

Detached bungalows increased by 9.7 per cent to $501,200 and condominiums rose by 9.3 per cent to $286,422. Standard two-storey homes increased by 7.9 per cent to $489,589.

“Calgary has had a serious inventory shortage dating back to the beginning of 2013, which combined with strong demand from prospective homebuyers is responsible for pushing prices skyward,” said Ted Zaharko, broker and owner of Royal LePage Foothills, in a news release. “We definitely have one of the hottest real estate markets in the country right now and all housing types are performing very well. Properties are being gobbled up as soon as they hit the market.”

But Zaharko said active listings are starting to climb.

“Slowly but surely we are seeing inventory levels creep up, which is needed to satisfy the pent-up demand after a prolonged period of insufficient supply,” he said.

Royal LePage is forecasting home prices in the city to rise by 5.5 per cent over the year compared with 2013.

“Prices are already up approximately 10 per cent year to date, and we expect this to creep up a little bit more before the end of the year,” said Zaharko. “The Calgary market is vibrant and is home to a strong local economy, fueled by the oil and gas industry. We expect the healthy real estate market to continue for the rest of this year and beyond.”

LOOKING NORTH

Demand increases for resale homes
By Josh Skapin 
Calgary Herald October 4, 2013  

Sales of single-family resale homes climbed 20 per cent in September compared to sales a year earlier, with tight market conditions creating higher prices, says the Calgary Real Estate Board.

“The impact of the floods likely boosted sales throughout July and August, and it appears as though some of that additional demand is starting to ease,” says chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie of CREB.

“Nonetheless, sales growth remains strong, in part because net migration has been stronger than anticipated and rental product is in short supply.”

Net migration describes the inflow of people to the city minus the outflow.

During September, 1,354 homes changed hands, up 20 per cent from 1,126 during the same time in 2012, says CREB.

The benchmark price of single-family homes in Calgary was $463,700 in September, a seven per cent upswing from $432,900 during the same month last year. The benchmark price is that of a typical home based on a formula that uses various factors to ensure accurate comparisons.

“While prices show strong year-over-year gains, if the level of new listings continues to improve relative to sales activity, prices should level off for the remainder of the year,” says Lurie.

Homebuyers have seen about the same selection this year compared to a year ago. There were 18,949 new listings between Jan. 1 and the end of September, a slight decline of 0.2 per cent from 18,881 during the same span in 2012.

However, the market saw a turnaround for new listings in September.

Last month, 1,975 single-family resale homes were added to the market, five per cent more than the 1,887 during this time last year.

From Jan. 1 to the end of September, 13,006 single-family homes were sold on Calgary’s resale market, a seven per cent improvement over the 12,186 transactions during the same period last year.

The quadrant with the most single-family house sales in the city during September was the northwest.

The board’s Zone A, which roughly consists of the northwest, finished the month with 467 transactions.

The next busiest quadrant was the board’s Zone C with 357 homes changing hands during September. This zone roughly consists of southwest Calgary.

At the same time, the board’s Zone D had 299 deals, while 231 homes sold in the board’s Zone B. Zone D roughly covers the southeast quadrant and Zone B is mostly the northeast side.

NORTHWEST LEADS REST

The two communities that saw the highest single-family home sales in the city in September were both in northwest Calgary.

Tuscany led the city in sales with 34 deals at an average sale price of $535,688, says the Calgary Real Estate Board. Panorama Hills had the second highest sales with 31 transactions at an average price of $487,477.

For information, visit creb.com

SHAPING UP

Calgary leads nation in building permit growth

June value up 16.6% from May

BY MARIO TONEGUZZI 

CALGARY HERALDAUGUST 8, 2013

CALGARY — Calgary saw the country’s largest increase in June in the total value of building permits, according to Statistics Canada.

The federal agency reported Wednesday that estimated building permit value was $537.7 million for the Calgary region, up 16.6 per cent from May and a year-over-year hike of 36.0 per cent.

“Following a 41.0 per cent decline in May, the value of permits issued in Calgary advanced largely as a result of higher construction intentions for commercial buildings and multi-family dwellings,” it said.

Tom Dixon, business development manager for real estate and logistics with Calgary Economic Development, said there has been an increase in activity recently in the non-residential sector in Calgary.

“The principal factor is there is a very low vacancy rate and there’s low availability in both the industrial portfolio and in downtown office space. The Class A office space in particular is in very short supply,” said Dixon.

According to Statistics Canada, the residential sector in Calgary saw a 3.7 per cent increase in building permits from May to $344.5 million while the non-residential sector was up 49.65 per cent to $193.2 million.

In Alberta, total building permits of $1.4 billion were down 0.4 per cent on a monthly basis but up 24.3 per cent year-over-year.

The residential sector in the province saw a monthly decrease of 10.4 per cent to $757.9 million. However, that was up 15.8 per cent from last year.

The non-residential sector in Alberta jumped to $645.4 million, up 14.7 per cent from May and a hike of 36.1 per cent from June 2012.

Todd Hirsch, chief economist with ATB Financial, said a dip in residential permits in June in Alberta was almost exactly offset by a rise in non-residential permits.

“Residential building in our province has been consistently strong in 2013, so a small pull-back, as occurred in June, is neither unusual or cause for alarm,” he said. “The steady inflow of job-seeking migrants to the province this year has kept the demand for housing at a healthy level.”

He said non-residential building permits are much more volatile month-to-month but in June developers in the province continued to find market opportunities in office buildings, stores and restaurants.

“Building permits are an excellent forward-looking indicator of the actual construction activity that can be expected in the coming months,” added Hirsch. “The overall message . . . is that Alberta’s construction sector remains in excellent shape.”

Across Canada, contractors took out building permits worth $6.6 billion in June, down 10.3 per cent from May and the first decrease in six months. It was also off 4.8 per cent from June 2012.

After three consecutive monthly increases, the total value of permits in the residential sector declined 12.9 per cent to $4.0 billion in June. That was also down 10.8 per cent from a year ago.

In the non-residential sector, the total value of building permits decreased 6.1 per cent to $2.7 billion in June. But that was up 5.8 per cent from last year.

SMOKIN' HOT

Calgary real estate industry heading for $9-billion plus year

MLS sales and average prices continue to rise

BY MARIO TONEGUZZI

CALGARY HERALD AUGUST 8, 2013

CALGARY — Calgary’s residential real estate market is on pace to record one of its highest ever yearly total dollar volume for MLS sales.

As of Tuesday, the local industry reached just over $6.8 billion in year-to-date transactions. That is more than $800 million ahead of last year’s pace which was just short of $6 billion as of Aug. 6, according to the Calgary Real Estate Board.

In 2012, total dollar volume for the entire year was slightly over $9.1 billion — only the third time in history it eclipsed the $9-billion mark. The other times were in 2006 at just under $9.9 billion and the record year of 2007 at $11.3 billion.

Christina Hagerty, a realtor with Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, said it’s been a busy real estate market in Calgary this year.

“We anticipated this activity in the beginning of the year with vacancy rates as low as one per cent in the inner core. Limited rental supply and increased rental rates, continued low interest rates with a positive influx of people transferring to Calgary, have made it an extremely buoyant real estate market,” said Hagerty.

“Inner-city condo prices in newer buildings are between $500 to $600 per square foot. There are competing offers from buyers ready to make a purchase when something of quality hits the market. This has caused a ripple effect into inner-city homes from both empty nesters downsizing, transferees, and condo sellers moving up. Many of our clients are renters moving into the buying market simply due to rental prices, investors seeing an opportunity or a significant amount of people moving here from across the country.”

She said home builders are picking up lots where they can find them and there have been several situations where lots are bidding for $100,000 to $200,000 above list prices in inner-city neighbourhoods.

“Alberta fundamentals remain sound and confidence in Alberta’s economy remains strong. It’s a testament to Calgary’s spirit and resilience that the post-flood cleanup has continued at its remarkable pace. Calgary has been leading the nation for the past few years and continues to grow,” added Hagerty.

According to CREB, there were 21,326 MLS sales in Calgary in 2012 with an average sale price of $427,912. In 2007, there were 26,709 sales with an average price of $423,145.

As of Wednesday, year-to-date, there have been 15,001 MLS transactions in Calgary, up 7.06 per cent from the same period a year ago and the average sale price has risen by 6.88 per cent to $457,499.

Becky Walters, CREB’s president, said pent-up demand is contributing to the continued rise in residential real estate sales in the city.

“This past year we saw 30 some thousand net migration to the city,” she said. “We’re getting more and more people moving here ... We’ve got fabulous job availability here.”

Another factor is that Calgary consistently rates high as one of the most affordable housing markets in the country due to its high level of personal income.

“People are seeing that there’s not a ton of inventory. So they’re getting out there making sure they get what they want,” added Walters.

SUP?

Calgary homes selling quicker
May 27, 2013

It’s interesting to see how the age-old dynamic of supply and demand is playing itself out in today’s Calgary real estate market.

When supply is down and demand is up, that’s going to impact prices and it’s also going to impact the length of time it takes to sell a property.

Well, supply is down these days in Calgary’s housing market while sales continue to grow. That’s pushing prices upwards – near record levels. And homes are selling quicker.

Here’s the numbers.

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, month-to-date until May 26, there have been 2,049 MLS sales in the city, up 2.71 per cent from the same period last year.

Days on the market to sell a property have dropped from 39 last year to currently 31, which is a drop of 20.51 per cent.

New listings of 3,091 so far this month are down 4.83 per cent from last year and active listings are off 18.16 per cent to 4,821.

All those numbers are sure to impact prices.

So far this month the median price is up 3.87 per cent from last year to $405,000 and the average price has risen by 3.26 per cent to $459,951 for all MLS property sales in the city.

TOP MARKETS

Calgary and Edmonton displace Toronto and Vancouver as top real estate markets
Limited supply in Calgary pushes rents higher
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald November 6, 2012

CALGARY — Calgary and Edmonton have displaced Toronto and Vancouver as the top-ranked cities for overall real estate prospects, according to the Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2013 report released Tuesday.

The report, by PwC and the Urban Land Institute, said the Canadian real estate market is expected to remain steady with “modestly good” investment and development prospects across most property sectors for 2013, reflecting expectations of solid supply and demand.

Calgary was the top-ranked city in the country followed by Edmonton, Toronto, Vancouver and Ottawa.

In this year’s survey, Calgary ranked first in both investment and development prospects and second in homebuilding prospects.

“Growth characterizes Calgary’s future; it displaces Toronto as the top ranked city for 2013,” said the report. “This has made it challenging to acquire high quality real estate in Calgary, absorption of prime properties has reached record levels, and rents are being pushed due to limited supply.

“This trend will continue in 2013, especially in office and industrial employment space. Construction will increase in the housing and non-residential arenas, but nowhere near pre-crisis levels.”

According to survey participants, Canada’s real estate market will follow along in a seeming state of near-perpetual equilibrium compared with other more volatile regions studied in the report, including most obviously the United States.

“The results of this year’s Emerging Trends report reflects the fact that the Canadian real estate community understands real estate fundamentals and knows how to react to fluctuations in monetary policy and capital markets. Canada’s real estate industry continues to operate well despite uncertainties in domestic and global economies,” said Lori-Ann Beausoleil, PwC Canada’s Real Estate Leader.

The report said Calgary’s expanding economy is requiring a larger and more highly-skilled workforce. Employment forecasts indicate growth of 2.8 per cent next year and 2.9 per cent in 2014.

“This growth, driven mostly by the oil and gas industry, has made it challenging to acquire high-quality real estate in this market,” said the report.

“Absorption of prime properties has reached record levels and rents are continuing to be pushed due to limited supply.”

The report said potential approvals of controversial pipeline projects to the United States and into British Columbia would boost real estate construction projects further in Calgary.

The strength of Calgary’s real estate market is evident in both the residential and non-residential sectors.

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, year-to-date as of Monday, total MLS sales in the city of 18,905 are up 15.56 per cent from the same period last year.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. is forecasting total housing starts in the Calgary census metropolitan area to finish at 12,400 units this year, an increase of more than 33 per cent from 2011 and the highest level since 2007.

RealNet Canada recently said Calgary has experienced the second best ever year for commercial real estate transactions for the first nine months of the year with $3.394 billion in sales so far this year.

And a recent report by Jones Lang LaSalle suggested a downtown office development boom in Calgary could be on the horizon.