SMOKIN' HOT

Calgary real estate industry heading for $9-billion plus year

MLS sales and average prices continue to rise

BY MARIO TONEGUZZI

CALGARY HERALD AUGUST 8, 2013

CALGARY — Calgary’s residential real estate market is on pace to record one of its highest ever yearly total dollar volume for MLS sales.

As of Tuesday, the local industry reached just over $6.8 billion in year-to-date transactions. That is more than $800 million ahead of last year’s pace which was just short of $6 billion as of Aug. 6, according to the Calgary Real Estate Board.

In 2012, total dollar volume for the entire year was slightly over $9.1 billion — only the third time in history it eclipsed the $9-billion mark. The other times were in 2006 at just under $9.9 billion and the record year of 2007 at $11.3 billion.

Christina Hagerty, a realtor with Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, said it’s been a busy real estate market in Calgary this year.

“We anticipated this activity in the beginning of the year with vacancy rates as low as one per cent in the inner core. Limited rental supply and increased rental rates, continued low interest rates with a positive influx of people transferring to Calgary, have made it an extremely buoyant real estate market,” said Hagerty.

“Inner-city condo prices in newer buildings are between $500 to $600 per square foot. There are competing offers from buyers ready to make a purchase when something of quality hits the market. This has caused a ripple effect into inner-city homes from both empty nesters downsizing, transferees, and condo sellers moving up. Many of our clients are renters moving into the buying market simply due to rental prices, investors seeing an opportunity or a significant amount of people moving here from across the country.”

She said home builders are picking up lots where they can find them and there have been several situations where lots are bidding for $100,000 to $200,000 above list prices in inner-city neighbourhoods.

“Alberta fundamentals remain sound and confidence in Alberta’s economy remains strong. It’s a testament to Calgary’s spirit and resilience that the post-flood cleanup has continued at its remarkable pace. Calgary has been leading the nation for the past few years and continues to grow,” added Hagerty.

According to CREB, there were 21,326 MLS sales in Calgary in 2012 with an average sale price of $427,912. In 2007, there were 26,709 sales with an average price of $423,145.

As of Wednesday, year-to-date, there have been 15,001 MLS transactions in Calgary, up 7.06 per cent from the same period a year ago and the average sale price has risen by 6.88 per cent to $457,499.

Becky Walters, CREB’s president, said pent-up demand is contributing to the continued rise in residential real estate sales in the city.

“This past year we saw 30 some thousand net migration to the city,” she said. “We’re getting more and more people moving here ... We’ve got fabulous job availability here.”

Another factor is that Calgary consistently rates high as one of the most affordable housing markets in the country due to its high level of personal income.

“People are seeing that there’s not a ton of inventory. So they’re getting out there making sure they get what they want,” added Walters.

SUP?

Calgary homes selling quicker
May 27, 2013

It’s interesting to see how the age-old dynamic of supply and demand is playing itself out in today’s Calgary real estate market.

When supply is down and demand is up, that’s going to impact prices and it’s also going to impact the length of time it takes to sell a property.

Well, supply is down these days in Calgary’s housing market while sales continue to grow. That’s pushing prices upwards – near record levels. And homes are selling quicker.

Here’s the numbers.

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, month-to-date until May 26, there have been 2,049 MLS sales in the city, up 2.71 per cent from the same period last year.

Days on the market to sell a property have dropped from 39 last year to currently 31, which is a drop of 20.51 per cent.

New listings of 3,091 so far this month are down 4.83 per cent from last year and active listings are off 18.16 per cent to 4,821.

All those numbers are sure to impact prices.

So far this month the median price is up 3.87 per cent from last year to $405,000 and the average price has risen by 3.26 per cent to $459,951 for all MLS property sales in the city.

WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT THE BOOM

What you need to know about Canada’s booming housing market
By Christine Dobby
November 15, 2011

With sales of existing homes in Canada rising in October to the highest level since January, the Canadian Real Estate Association boosted its forecast for resale activity for 2011.

The industry group released data on October sales activity as well as a revised forecast for the year on Tuesday.

National sales of existing homes increased 1.2% from the previous month, building on a gain of 2.5% in September. Price gains however cooled to 5.5%, the smallest gains since January.

A total of 397,561 resale units have traded hands so far this year, CREA said, up 1.8% from levels in the first 10 months of 2010.

Here’s what you need to know about the booming Canadian housing market:

Ontario leads the way

Third-quarter sales activity in the province was stronger than forecast, while the rest of the country came in broadly in line with expectations, the CREA said.

It was the strength of activity in Ontario that prompted the CREA to boost its annual forecast for 2011 to 1.4%, up from 0.9%.

The industry group now predicts national sales of 453,300 for the year, compared with 446,915 in 2010.

198,000 of 2011′s residential sales are expected to come from Ontario, with Quebec and British Columbia expected to have sales of 77,000 and 76,600, respectively.

Home prices are still up but showing signs of cooling down

CREA kept its national average home price forecast for the year little changed at $362,700. That’s an annual increase of 7.0% compared with $339,049 in 2010.

Prices are expected to remain flat next year, with the CREA forecasting $362,700 again for 2012.

The industry group pointed to moderating prices in Vancouver in the third quarter compared with the first half of the year, with sales of multi-million dollar properties in that city returning to “more normal levels.”

CREA said the national average price in October rose 5.5% from a year earlier to just under $362,899, the smallest increase since January.

The balance of supply and demand is tight but the market remains on solid footing

October’s monthly rise in sales resulted in a slightly tighter balance of supply and demand, but the national housing market remains “firmly rooted in balanced territory,” the CREA said.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio, a measure of market balance, stood at 53.4% in October, up from 52.8% in September.

Low interest rates continue to bolster the market

CREA also revised its forecast for 2012 upward slightly, predicting a smaller easing than previously expected of 0.5% to 451,200 units.

The uptick is largely due to expectations that Canada’s interest rates will stay low until well into 2012, CREA said.

But domestic and global economic headwinds could put pressure on the sector

“A number of factors will keep Canada’s housing market in check as interest rates remain low,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist.

He pointed to tightened mortgage regulations, high household debt and slower economic and job growth as possible headwinds.

However, Mr. Klump noted that persistent news of global economic uncertainty has put only minor dents in consumer confidence to date.

“How confidence evolves depends on how global turmoil plays out over the coming months,” he said.