SUP?

Calgary homes selling quicker
May 27, 2013

It’s interesting to see how the age-old dynamic of supply and demand is playing itself out in today’s Calgary real estate market.

When supply is down and demand is up, that’s going to impact prices and it’s also going to impact the length of time it takes to sell a property.

Well, supply is down these days in Calgary’s housing market while sales continue to grow. That’s pushing prices upwards – near record levels. And homes are selling quicker.

Here’s the numbers.

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, month-to-date until May 26, there have been 2,049 MLS sales in the city, up 2.71 per cent from the same period last year.

Days on the market to sell a property have dropped from 39 last year to currently 31, which is a drop of 20.51 per cent.

New listings of 3,091 so far this month are down 4.83 per cent from last year and active listings are off 18.16 per cent to 4,821.

All those numbers are sure to impact prices.

So far this month the median price is up 3.87 per cent from last year to $405,000 and the average price has risen by 3.26 per cent to $459,951 for all MLS property sales in the city.

Calgary region to see MLS sales and prices rising for next two years

CMHC report says average price to hit $434,000 in 2014

CALGARY — The Calgary region can expect to see increases in both sales and average MLS prices for the next two years, according to a housing forecast released Friday by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.

The agency said sales in the Calgary census metropolitan area will grow by 1.37 per cent this year to 27,000 units followed by another 2.59 per cent growth in 2014 to 27,700 transactions.

The average sale price is expected to rise by 2.59 per cent this year to $423,000 and by another 2.6 per cent in 2014 to $434,000.

Christina Hagerty, a realtor with Sotheby’s International Realty Canada in Calgary, said she has had a very busy start so far to the year.

“With Calgary’s industries continuing to hire, I see many people coming from other Canadian centres and the U.S,” said Hagerty. “Specializing in the inner-city market, most of the people we meet are either job transfers and want no commute to work, first-time buyers and empty nesters.”

She said rental vacancy rates are at an all-time low and interest rates have remained historically low as well which have been factors in increasing housing demand.

“All the indicators are continuing to confirm our projections last year that Calgary will be leading the nation,” she said. “Affordable mortgages, record low vacancy rates, continued inward migration and low inventory going into the Spring market makes for a year of healthy growth ahead.”

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, year-to-date until February 21, total MLS sales in the city of 2,498 are up 11.57 per cent compared with the same period last year and the average sale price has risen by 10.63 per cent to $448,635.

For Alberta, the CMHC is forecasting MLS sales to increase from 60,369 in 2012 to 61,000 in 2013 and to 62,400 in 2014.

In the province, the average MLS sale price is forecast to increase from $363,208 in 2012 to $371,200 this year and to $380,700 next year.

The CMHC report also forecast that housing starts in Alberta will fall from 33,396 in 2012 to 31,800 in 2013 but then rise to 32,200 in 2014.

In Calgary, starts are expected to fall from 12,841 in 2012 to 11,800 in 2013 and then rise slightly to 11,900 in 2014.

“The resale market in Calgary is anticipated to remain in balanced territory over the forecast horizon,” said Richard Cho, senior market analyst in Calgary for the CMHC. “Sales in 2013 are forecast to rise for the third consecutive year but at a more tempered pace compared to the previous year. Low mortgage rates, rising incomes and employment growth will continue to help support housing demand. Some sales will also come from renters who migrated to Calgary in the last couple of years.

“The average price has been gradually trending up, and is expected to continue in 2013. Active listings have declined, lowering the selection of available homes and putting pressure on prices.”

Calgary housing market soars to new average sale price record for January

CALGARY — Calgary’s resale housing market had its best January for sales since 2008 as average prices also climbed to their highest level ever for the month.

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, total MLS sales in the city in January were 1,230, up 15.17 per cent from a year ago while the average sale price rose by 12.34 per cent cent to $439,671.

The previous record high for the average sale price in any January was in 2008 at $413,271.

“In today’s Calgary real estate market there are a number of significant factors that influence our housing sector. The growth within the energy sector is significant along with consumer confidence in the marketplace as well as steady economic performance,” said Kaitlyn Gottlieb, realtor with Century 21 Bamber Realty Ltd. in Calgary. “While these factors continue to increase home sales, should inventory continue to decline, pricing may continue to increase steadily, yet moderately. Although it is early in the year to make market predictions, if 2013 continues to bring good economic activity there is a great possibility that 2013 will exceed our expectations both in the Calgary real estate market and in Calgary’s outlying areas. While 2013 growth may be modest, we can still expect a positive market for this year.

“Alberta continues to fuel growth as a commodity-rich province and is expected to continue to support moderate price growth as we saw in 2012. The increased prices we have seen on single-family homes can partially be attributed to the record number of luxury homes sales we saw last year.”

In the single-family home market in Calgary, sales during January of 879 were up 15.20 per cent from last year and the average sale price rose by 12.74 per cent to $496,579.

The average sale price was the fifth highest ever for any month in the single-family market. The peak was $506,670 set in July 2007.

In the condo apartment category, sales of 204 for January were up 13.97 per cent from a year ago while the average sale price jumped by 13.09 per cent to $280,273. The condo townhouse sector saw sales increase by 16.67 per cent from a year ago to 147 transactions and the average price rise by 7.61 per cent to $320,590.

“Prices have improved in the Calgary market but as always it is important to keep some perspective on this,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB’s chief economist. “While January’s year-over-year increase seems significant, price recovery occurred in the spring months of 2012 under tighter market conditions and home prices leveled off for the remainder of the year.”

CREB also tracks the prices for what it calls typical properties sold. The overall benchmark price in the city rose by 8.35 per cent to $392,000. The single-family home benchmark price jumped by 9.01 per cent to $436,900. It rose by 7.49 per cent in the condo apartment category to $251,300 and it was up by 4.85 per cent in the condo townhouse category to $283,400.

“The employment gains achieved in previous years along with rising income, low mortgage rates and robust net migration levels has sustained demand for housing,” said Richard Cho, senior market analyst in Calgary for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. “Many buyers have benefited from Calgary’s growing economy, giving them opportunities to move into homeownership.


“Some of the resale activity will have likely come from renters as well. As the rental market has tightened with average rents moving up, some renters may have decided to purchase a starter home and take on a mortgage instead of paying rent.”

mtoneguzzi@calgaryherald.com

2013 CALGARY REAL ESTATE BOARD FORECAST

CREB® forecasts moderate sales, price growth

 The full forecast report is available here.

Calgary, Jan. 16, 2013 – The resale housing market in Calgary and area will see moderate sales and house price growth in 2013, CREB® said today at its annual forecast.

Sales growth in the city is expected to ease to 2.2 per cent this year, with house prices rising by 2.9 per cent.

“Slower growth trends in employment combined with lower migration estimates will impact sales growth across all resale sectors, and, as listings continue to decline, this will further dampen sales growth, particularly in the single-family market,” Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB®’s chief economist, said at the 2013 CREB® Forecast Conference & Tradeshow. “However, as the overall market remains well supplied, prices will continue to grow but not at the levels seen in 2012.”

In 2012, Calgary’s single-family market recorded sales growth of nearly 15 per cent. With a decline in the level of new single-family listings, that is expected to ease to 1.8 per cent this year. Prices are estimated to rise by three per cent.

Becky Walters, president of CREB®’s 2013 board of directors, said the city and surrounding areas are seeing good resale activity.

“We have a nice, balanced market, and it’s expected to see some growth this year,” Walters said. “Although some big markets in Canada are stumbling, Calgary is hot on the heels of a year of recovery, with the forecast saying the market is going to stay in positive territory.”

In the condominium market, sales are expected to increase by three per cent, with a moderate price appreciation of 2.4 per cent for condo apartments and 2.8 per cent for condo townhouses.

Although the prediction is for a “balanced” resale housing market, Lurie said there are numerous risks in the market.

“The largest risk in our market is related to concerns in the oil sector,” she said. “They are facing pipeline constraints and lack of access to more diverse markets, impacting the price they receive for their oil. If the discounts on our oil persist, this clearly could impact the job sector and, ultimately, the housing market.”

THE UPSWING

Resale market on the upswing
By Josh Skapin
Calgary Herald August 3, 2012

The upswing on resale activity of single-family homes in Calgary continued in July.

Last month, 1,386 single-family homes changed hands in Calgary, a 21.37 per cent increase on the 1,142 units sold in July of last year, says the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB).

Changes to Canada’s mortgage rules earlier this year fuelled talks of a national housing correction, which has yet to be seen in Calgary says CREB chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. These changes include shortening the maximum amortization period from 30 years to 25 years.

“While the two largest cities (Vancouver and Toronto) have started to witness declines in home sales activity, Calgary continues to record improving sales and prices,” says Lurie in a news release.

To date, the city’s single-family resale activity is up 18.9 per cent over the same span in 2012.

That pace is fuelled by the region’s economic growth, adds Lurie.

“Last year, Alberta led the country in economic growth and, with Calgary being the energy capital of the country, the city has benefited from growth in full-time employment, migration and overall improved confidence.”

The average price of single-family homes sold in Calgary’s resale market is also on the rise.

Last month, the average price was $485,528, marking an 4.85 per cent climb over $456,374, the average price from July 2011.

The average resale price on single-family homes since the start of 2012 is 2.11 per cent higher than the same period one year ago.

Zone A, which roughly translates to northwest Calgary, had the highest sales totals in the city last month at 504 units moved.

Coventry Hills led the zone and the city in resale activity last month with 47 houses changing hands.

Zone C, which roughly covers southwest Calgary had the second highest resale activity in July with 405 units moved. The highest average resale price in the city last month also came from Zone C at $599,565.

The third highest sales totals came in Zone D, which roughly translates to southeast Calgary, with 295 sales.

The slowest section in the city for single-family homes last month was Zone B’s 189 sales.

This zone roughly covers northeast Calgary. Zone B also had the least average resale price at $301,602.

RISE IN LUXURY HOMES

Resale of luxury homes in Calgary soared in the first seven months of this year compared to the same time in 2011.

There have been 318 transactions of single-family homes priced $1 million or more since the start of 2012 compared to only 266 during the same span last year, according to numbers from the Calgary Real Estate Board.

The biggest rise was in the $1 million to $1.249 million price category, with 152 units sold since the start of the year after only 102 transactions during the same period in 2011.

Photo By: Thomas Hawk

READING THE SIGNS

Alberta housing market most affordable in Canada: RBC
Resale activity picking up in Calgary
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald May 29, 2012

CALGARY — Housing market activity in Alberta is showing increasing signs of strength as it benefits from attractive affordability and nation-leading economic growth, according to the latest Housing Trends and Affordability Report released Tuesday by RBC Economics.

RBC’s housing affordability measures for Alberta, which capture the province’s proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a home at market value, remained among the lowest, if not the lowest, in the country in the first quarter of this year.

And RBC said the “long-awaited resurgence” of the Calgary-housing market appears to have been launched in recent months as home resales advanced by a “sizable” 7.4 per cent in the first quarter relative to the fourth quarter of last year, and April activity showed even greater strength.

In fact, Calgary bucked the national trend and showed improved affordability in the first quarter.

“Homebuyers in the Calgary area are motivated by a booming provincial economy, strong job creation, and attractive housing affordability,” said the report. “Despite higher resales lately, home prices so far have remained flat for the most part, with some weakness observed in condominium apartments. This has kept housing affordability in check at some of the better levels among Canada’s largest cities.”

It said affordability improved modestly in the first quarter in Calgary. RBC housing affordability measures show the proportion of median pre-tax household income that would be required to service the cost of a mortgage payment. RBC said that in Calgary measures compared with a year ago edged lower for condominium apartments (0.4 per cent) and two-storey homes (0.3 per cent), and stayed unchanged for detached bungalows.

“We expect the market resurgence to continue for the remainder of this year,” it said.

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, MLS sales in Calgary so far this month from May 1-28 are up 27.90 per cent from the same period a year ago with 2,104 transactions and the average residential sale price in the city has increased by 3.03 per cent to $445,120.

Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB’s chief economist, said the city has experienced positive economic growth with the expansion in jobs, full-time jobs in particular.

“And this really has encouraged some demand into housing. We’ve had low interest rates . . . We’ve had a signficantly strong spring season compared to other years,” she said. “It’s also important to note that we’ve been pretty slow to recover in the first place. So there was a lot of hesitation out there.

“But as things have started to improve in the economy, people are starting to re-invest.”

Lurie said she doesn’t expect to see any change in the demand for housing in the city in the near future.

Robert Hogue, senior economist with RBC, said attractive affordability and a strong provincial economy are playing significant roles in driving Alberta’s home resale activity, up 11.5 per cent year-over-year in the first quarter and showing no sign of easing in April.

“We expect that, going forward, Alberta’s housing market will remain on this bright path, particularly as the province continues to lead the country in economic growth,” he said.

The measure for benchmark detached bungalows in Alberta rose by 0.1 percentage points to 32.2 per cent, while the measure for condominium apartments marked a small improvement, decreasing 0.3 percentage points to 20.2 per cent. The two-storey home category was the only measure that remained unchanged at 35.3 per cent.

RBC’s housing affordability measure for the benchmark detached bungalow in Canada’s largest cities is as follows: Vancouver 88.9 per cent (up 3.1 percentage points from the previous quarter), Toronto 53.4 per cent (up 1.2 percentage points), Ottawa 41.8 per cent (up 0.9 percentage points), Montreal 41.4 per cent (up 1.2 percentage points), Calgary 36.7 per cent (unchanged) and Edmonton 32.4 per cent (down 0.4 percentage points).

The following are average prices in the first quarter of this year, affordability measure, and year-over-year change in the affordability measure:

Detached Bungalow

Canada, $360,500, 43.1 per cent, 1.5 per cent.

Alberta, $347,900, 32.2 per cent, 0.1 per cent.

Calgary, $423,000, 36.7 per cent, 0.2 per cent.

Standard Two-Storey

Canada, $403,600, 48.7 per cent, 1.2 per cent.

Alberta, $372,800, 35.3 per cent, 0.2 per cent.

Calgary, $418,200, 37.5 per cent, 0.1 per cent.

Standard Condominium

Canada, $235,800, 28.8 per cent, 0.3 per cent.

Alberta, $212,300, 20.2 per cent, — 0.6 per cent.

Calgary, $248,100, 22.2 per cent, — 0.4 per cent.

Photo By: woody1778a

MAY it be a GREAT YEAR!

May MLS sales in Calgary up substantially
Calgary Herald
May 29, 2012

It’s been a good spring so far for the local real estate industry with sales moving ahead of last year’s pace at a good clip.

And so far in May sales have continued to be quite healthy.

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, from May 1-28, there have been 2,104 MLS residential sales in the city, up 27.90 per cent from the same period last year and the average sale price has increased by 3.03 per cent to $445,120.

The single-family home market has seen year-over-year growth of 26.52 per cent in sales to 1,503 with the average price rising by 3.12 per cent to $503,694.

That average sale price is flirting with the all-time monthly record of $505,920 set in July 2007.

In the condo apartment category, sales of 345 are up 31.18 per cent from last year and the average price has risen by 4.03 per cent to $275,382.

Also, in the condo townhouse category, sales in May are up 31.96 per cent from last year to 256 transactions and the price has increased by 5.29 per cent to $329,969.

JUST LIKE A HEATWAVE

Condo pace picks up steam in city
By Claire Young
Calgary Herald May 18, 2012

Compared to the last three months of 2011, resale condos sold faster from Jan. 1 to the end of March in three of four quadrants of the city, says the Calgary Real Estate Board.

All of the board’s zones except for Zone A — which roughly corresponds to the city’s northwest — sold more quickly than during October to December.

In Zone A, condos took an average of 58 days to sell — three more than during the last quarter.

Condos in Zone B, which roughly consists of northeast Calgary, averaged 58 days on market, down from 64 in the first quarter.

Meanwhile, Zone C — roughly southwest Calgary — saw the hottest sales with an average of 49 days on market, down from 60.

And Zone D, which is roughly consists of southeast Calgary, saw a six-day drop to an average of 50 days on market.

The new year brought many more listings for condos.

From Jan. 1 to the end of March, there were 2,702 new listings in the city compared with 1,644 during October to December.

The bulk of the new listings were in Zone C, with 1,492 added. This zone also saw the most sales at 783, up again from last quarter’s 612.

The only neighbourhood to hit triple-digit sales in 2012’s first quarter was Connaught in Zone C, which saw a tidy 100 sales averaging $309,451.

Other neighbourhoods in Zone C that sold well were Victoria Park with 48 sales averaging $351,754, and Bankview with 32 sales averaging $262,512.

The most expensive neighbourhood from Jan. 1 to the end of March was Varsity Estates in Zone A, which had two sales averaging $598,750.

The most affordable neighbourhood was also in Zone A — Highland Park, which had one sale for $79,000.

During the first three months of 2012, the average sale price increased in all zones except Zone D — where this quarter’s average sale of $259,768 marked a decline from last quarter’s $268,998.

Zone C had the highest average sales at $307,822, an increase from $298,960.

Zone A’s average sale was $281,193, up almost $10,000, while Zone B was up a little more than $4,000, with an average sale of $173,544.

BLOOM & BOOM

Calgary housing market booming
Calgary Herald April 23, 2012

Just over three weeks into April and it appears Calgary’s housing market has seen a resurgence of activity this spring.

A boom perhaps?

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, MLS sales in all housing categories are noticeably up compared with last year.

From April 1-22, single-family sales of 1,108 transactions are up 26.05 per cent from the same period a year ago but the average sale price has dipped by 0.43 per cent to $481,423.

The condo apartment category has seen sales grow year-over-year by 14.91 per cent to 262 units while the average price has dropped by 2.83 per cent to $269,046.

And in the condo townhouse sector, sales of 198 are up 15.79 per cent from last year and the average price has risen by 6.46 per cent to $319,140.

SPRING BOOST!

Real estate spring boost predicted in Calgary
CBC News
Posted: Mar 19, 2012
 
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/story/2012/03/19/calgary-real-estate-spring.html
 
Calgary realtors say the market is picking up with the approach of spring.

The Calgary Real Estate Board is forecasting a two per cent growth in house prices this year.

But according to board president Bob Jablonski, there are indications sales will be even higher than expected.

Jablonski said multiple offers on the same property and increased interest in homes in all price ranges are two factors that make him optimistic.

"If it’s priced properly and you are in a good community in the type of property you are looking for there may be more than one buyer looking for it,” he said.

Realtor Sano Stante is also seeing signs of an uptick, he said.

"The sense is that the consumers' mood is picking up, generally and they're a little more confident in the economy,” Stante said.

FUELING DEMAND

Burgeoning Calgary population to fuel demand in housing market
New home construction and MLS sales on upswing
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald February 8, 2012

CALGARY — A burgeoning population will spark another real estate cycle in Calgary with increased demand fuelling more MLS sales and more new home construction.

But industry experts don’t expect the next cycle to mirror the boom of a couple of years ago which experienced a frenzy of activity and fast-rising house prices due to a lack of supply.

Instead, a stable, steady growth is expected in Calgary’s real estate market.

On Wednesday, Statistics Canada reported the Calgary census metropolitan area had the highest rate of population growth in the country at 12.6 per cent between 2006 and 2011 and is now more than 1.2 million for the region.

Tim Logel, president and partner of home builder Cardel Lifestyles in Calgary, said the population data supports what the industry believes is happening in the market.

“What’s positive about it is that as more people move to Calgary then more of the inventory or the supply that we’ve been working on reducing gets absorbed,” said Logel. “And it gets absorbed quicker and gets us closer to being in a higher demand environment where we’re being asked to produce more new housing products of all types for the market ... Over the next year with this in-migration, the extra supply will be absorbed.”

Logel said a new real estate cycle has been started in the city. The last one finished in the spring of 2007 in the Calgary market.

Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist for the Calgary Real Estate Board, said the growing population will help support increased demand for housing in the resale market as well.

“In the resale market, especially moving forward, we think this will also help really take up some of that inventory that is in the market because we had some out-migration in the past few years. 2010 in particular, in-migration levels were extremely slow and so that impacted our housing market as well,” said Lurie.

CREB is forecasting single-family MLS sales activity to increase by 12.2 per cent this year from 2011 levels and condo transactions to jump by 5.9 per cent. Its forecast is also for average sale prices of single-family homes to rise by 2.1 per cent and by 1.7 per cent for condos.

“It’s much more of a stable growth than it was during the last boom. I just don’t see us moving there,” said Lurie. “We’re not moving into that scenario. It’s a much more stable growth and we have a good supply of inventory right now in the resale market and frankly on the new home market they do have some room to improve in some of their construction.

“They’ve got some room to grow and build more to help meet with those household formation numbers.”

Already in January some real estate data, released Wednesday, is indicating support for increased activity in the market as housing starts and residential building permits showed impressive increases compared with a year ago.

According to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., housing starts in the Calgary census metropolitan area totalled 786 units in January, up 52 per cent from 518 units a year ago.

In the region, 336 single-detached units broke ground in January, up 14.7 per cent from the 293 units started in January 2011.

“This represents the sixth consecutive month where starts have increased on a year-over-year basis,” said Richard Cho, senior market analyst in Calgary for the CMHC.

Multi-family starts, which include semi-detached units, rows and apartments, increased to 450 units in January, up from 225 units a year earlier.

“As was the case in the last several months, apartment construction continues to be elevated, averaging more than 340 starts per month since August 2011,” said Cho.

Also, the estimated construction value of building permit applications for the residential sector in Calgary rose by 42 per cent in January compared with a year ago.

In releasing its latest data on Wednesday, the City said residential values increased to $153 million compared with $108 million in January 2011. This represents 651 new residential units, a 73 per cent increase compared with the January 2011 total of 376.

“The overall gain in residential value and number of new residential units can be attributed to increases in the apartment and townhouse sectors,” said Kevin Griffiths, chief building official with the city’s department of development and building approvals.

“For the month of January we accepted six apartment applications for 193 new units compared to zero last year, and 20 townhouse applications for 122 new units, compared to only seven townhouse applications totalling 44 units for the same period last year.”

WIND IT UP!

Luxury home sales spike
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald  December 10, 2011

Calgary's luxury home market has seen a spike in demand this year, with sales in the upper-end approaching the record levels of 2007.

Brendan Hughes, a realtor with Re/Max Real Estate (Central) in Calgary, said sales in the higher-end market are a sign of a good economy in the city. "It's vibrant and it's growing. Jobs are being created. People are moving here."

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, so far this year from January to November there have been 25 MLS condo sales over $1 million compared with 19 for the same period in 2010.

Year-to-date, there have been 406 single-family sales at that price point, up from 326 a year ago.

The record number of luxury home sales in the Calgary market took place in 2007 with 431 single-family sales over $1 million and 30 condo sales in that price bracket.

Sano Stante, president of the Calgary Real Estate Board, said there is a lot of confidence in the local real estate market these days.

Many oilpatch executives are showing confidence because of what they see coming up for the future with projects in the energy sector. "Those are the people that are buying these properties. So there's confidence in that realm," said Stante. "There's a fair bit of inventory out there available in that upper range as well. The people who are buying them now are being selective in the upper-end, in the luxury market. There's a lot of good product to choose from and they're selecting only the best deals. So homes in the luxury range have to be priced right to sell in a reasonable amount of time."

According to CREB, the top sale prices for single-family homes in Calgary this year have been $4.525 million in Rideau Park, $3.995 million in Elbow Park-Glencoe and $3.8 million in Aspen Woods.

Top selling condos this year have been $4.1 million in Eau Claire, $2.935 million in Eau Claire and $2.05 million in Victoria Park.

Hughes said one factor in the demand for upper-end product is executives who have been relocated to Calgary. "They like the high-end condo market," said Hughes. "We're also seeing these young professionals - the investment bankers, the lawyers, - they work really hard . . . they're looking at that high end.

"And then there's that investment side of it too. Some people shudder when you mention a million-dollar condo, but compared to a lot of other markets what you get here for $1 million, $2 million, is a lot more than you're getting in some of the other markets. And people see that."

A GOOD BUY IN CALGARY?

Calgary housing among most affordable
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald August 23, 2011

Owning a home in Calgary may be expensive for many people but a report suggests housing affordability in the city is among the lowest in the country for major centres.

And with interest rates now expected to remain at a low level, Calgary's affordability will continue to be remain that way, say industry experts.

A report by RBC Economics, released Monday, said Calgary's housing affordability actually deteriorated in the second quarter of this year compared with the previous quarter but affordability in the city is better than the national average for detached bungalows, standard two-storey homes and standard condominiums.

Sano Stante, president of the Calgary Real Estate Board, said prevailing negative economic conditions will restrain any increases in interest rates for awhile.

"Those are increases that we fully expected prior to these events and they've now been abated," said Stante. "That was our biggest risk of deteriorating affordability.

"With an assurance that interest rates are going to stay low for the next 12 months anyway - and there's somewhat of an assurance of that - then it really looks like we're going to lead the nation in affordability especially when we start to get increased employment and in-migration towards the end of this year. That should really lend to a more robust real estate market."

Robert Hogue, senior economist with RBC, said he too expects Calgary's affordability to remain about the same.

"Previous to a few weeks ago we expected higher interest rates would start really putting more and more pressure across the board in Canada including in Calgary on the monthly costs of home ownership," he said. "Now we've pushed everything out to the middle of next year. "

The RBC Housing Affordability Measure, which has been compiled since 1985, shows the proportion of median pre-tax household income that would be required to service the cost of mortgage payments (principal and interest), property taxes and utilities. The higher the measure, the more difficult it is to afford a house. For example, an affordability measure of 50 per cent means that home ownership costs take up 50 per cent of a typical household's pre-tax income.

In the second quarter, Calgary's measures were 37.1 per cent for a detached bungalow, 38.5 per cent for a standard two-storey, and 23.0 per cent for a standard condominium. The measures increased by 0.6 per cent (bungalow), 1.1. per cent (twostorey) and 0.4 per cent (condo).

However, they are lower than a year ago by 3.1 per cent for a bungalow, 2.9 per cent for a two-storey and 1.6 per cent for a condo.

Housing Affordability Q2 2011

Detached bungalow

Legion Avg. price YoY chg. Affordability* Q/Q chg.

Canada $347,600 5.2% 43.3% 1.7%

Alberta $339,500 -2.6% 32.8% 0.7%

Calgary $411,700 -2.0% 37.1% 0.6%

Standard two-storey

Canada $393,100 5.0% 49.3% 1.8%

Alberta $370,300 -1.1% 36.4% 1.3%

Calgary $415,200 -1.6 % 38.5% 1.1%

Standard condominium

Canada $230,000 3.4% 29.2% 0.8%

Alberta $216,200 1.0% 21.3% 0.5%

Calgary $249,000 -1.1% 23.0% 0.4%

*Shows the proportion of median pre-tax household income that would be required to service the cost of mortgage payments (principal and interest), property taxes and utilities. Source: RBC Housing Trends and Affordability report

LOOKING AHEAD TO SPRING 2011

Housing set to find even keel in spring

STEVE LADURANTAYE — REAL ESTATE REPORTER
From Tuesday's Globe and Mail
Published Monday, Nov. 15, 2010

Record low interest rates and a lack of houses on the market have rekindled demand for Canadian real estate, helping to pull the industry out of its sales slump and setting the stage for the most balanced spring market in years.

The Canadian Real Estate Association said Monday that although prices were flat in October and sales slid more than 20 per cent compared with a year earlier, the market posted its third straight month of increased sales.

In a sign of stabilization after two years of wild fluctuations, CREA said October sales were halfway between the lows of December, 2008, and the record high of December, 2009.

Economists said October’s data likely means the market bottomed out in July; while prices won’t rocket to previous highs any time soon, it’s unlikely they have much farther to fall.

“It seems to me the Canadian housing market has been either feast or famine,” said BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter. “But now buyers are facing low rates on one hand, and daily volleys about how bad the market is on the other. That should keep things from getting overly hot, and gives me reason to believe we could have a balanced market in the year ahead.”

After slowing in the recession of 2008, sales activity reached a fevered peak in December, 2009, as buyers rushed back into the market.

Average resale prices peaked at an all-time high $346,881 last May, causing concern that cheap money was driving prices to unsustainable levels. The average resale price in October was $337,842, CREA said.

The market came to an abrupt halt last July, with major regions such as Vancouver and Calgary posting sales drops of nearly 45 per cent and prices pulling back from May’s high. Several factors were cited for the decline: The federal government introduced rules that made it more difficult to qualify for a mortgage, and Ontario and Quebec introduced harmonized sales taxes that made the services associated with buying a home more expensive.

Would-be buyers also faced a barrage of warnings from organizations such as the Bank of Canada, the OECD and International Monetary Fund, all of which have cautioned that as interest rates rise, many Canadians might not be able to make their mortgage payments.

But mortgage rates have actually dropped in the past three months and now sit at all-time lows. A survey by the Canadian Association of Mortgage Professionals released last week showed that Canadians are confident they could shoulder higher mortgage payments without too much difficulty, with 84 per cent saying a $300 monthly increase was no problem.

“There are many reasons to now be optimistic,” said TD Bank senior economist Pascal Gauthier, who called for prices to fall 10 per cent from peak to trough but now expects to issue a more upbeat forecast later this week. “I think there are now limits to both the upside and the downside – things may have firmed up quicker than we expected.”

With the number of houses listed for sale sharply lower than in July, prices are expected to stay firm as buyers compete the few homes available. The months of inventory – the amount of time it would take to sell everything that is for sale, at the current rate of sales – sat at 6.2 months in October, down a full month compared with the July figure.

That doesn’t mean prices are likely to catch fire again in the spring, when activity traditionally accelerates, but it should help keep prices from dropping as buyers and sellers hit the market in equal numbers.

“Affordability drives sales and record low mortgage rates are driving affordability,” said Phil Soper, the chief executive officer of Brookfield Real Estate Services. “I think next year should look a lot like the recent market – with relatively flat prices and fewer overall transactions.”

Photo By: Clara Hinton

BOW WOW

Calgary's The Bow: a new skyline symbol

NATHAN VANDERKLIPPE
CALGARY— From Wednesday's Globe and Mail
Published Tuesday, Nov. 16, 2010
 
More than 200 metres above Calgary’s streets, a crane swings a long metal beam atop the West’s new architectural crown.


The five-tonne length of steel is designed to support the upper reaches of the Bow, a building that is a study in superlatives: the largest building in the Canadian West and the biggest steel project in Canadian history


Kerry Gillis watches the beam move, and shrugs.


“Piece of cake on this job,” says the chief operating officer of Ledcor Construction Ltd., which is building the Bow and has hoisted steel pieces three times as heavy.

Earlier this month, Ledcor finished assembling the building’s steel. The building’s diamond-shaped “diagrid” supports will be completed by year’s end; the walls of glass will be installed by late spring. The Bow, the largest North American construction project outside of New York’s Freedom Tower, will then be externally complete.

There is a certain hubris that comes with building a two-million-square-foot tower that, long before workers had so much as dug the first spadeful of earth for its parking garage, was expected to become the new calling card of Calgary. Even competitors say the Bow is an icon for the city, a glass-covered fist thrust in the face of the recession.

It did not escape the downturn unscathed – financing problems by owner H&R Reit resulted in the suspension of plans for a second building. But construction on the main tower never stopped, and the money issues were eventually resolved with a $425-million financing deal last April.

Now, the building’s upper reaches are taking shape at a time of resurgence for Calgary, which has profited from a new wave of development in the oil sands, driven by sustained strength in crude prices.

As some of the final beams are lifted into place, Mr. Gillis glances across the skyline – or, more properly, down on it, from the lofty heights of what will soon be the new headquarters of Encana Corp. and Cenovus Energy Corp. Several blocks away, crews have pushed another huge new tower, the million-square-foot Eighth Avenue Place, high into the sky. It, too, is a construction monument in a city that is nearing completion on two new landmarks.

But Mr. Gillis scoffs at that tower, too.

“Piece of cake over there. This,” he says, casting a glance around the complicated work of erecting the Bow’s curving structure 58 storeys into the sky, “is real construction.”

The Bow contains 45,000 tonnes of steel connected with 45 tonnes of welding and 800,000 structural bolts, some of them so big they barely fit in a man’s hand. It has 40 elevators and is so tall workers talk about the different climate at its summit. From the ground, its enormous walls of glass – which span an area the size of 14 CFL fields – swallow the sky.

For its builders, all of those attributes have combined to make the Bow Canada’s most prominent billboard – a building that remains on budget, although it may be completed slightly later than expected. It’s a feather in the cap that Ledcor’s most ardent competitors have acknowledged.

“I would call the Bow a signature building in Calgary,” said Roger Dootson, the vice-president and district manager for PCL Construction Management Inc., who also chairs the Alberta Construction Association. “And signature and iconic buildings do help out a company’s résumé for future projects.”

Ledcor has a long history in Alberta. Founded in 1947, it has grown into one of Canada’s largest construction companies, with $2-billion a year in revenue. But in Calgary, the Bow has been a coming-out party of sorts for Ledcor, whose efforts in Western Canada have focused largely on the less-glitzy work of building pipelines and oil sands projects. For Ledcor, the Bow has become something of a marketing exercise for its bread-and-butter business of putting together industrial structures.

Standing on top of the Bow, the reason is obvious. In its nearly-complete shadow stand the head offices of much of corporate Calgary. Suncor Energy Inc. is a next-door neighbour. TransCanada Corp. is so close that Ledcor once received a call from a safety executive at the pipeline company, who had spotted a lapse on site through his office window. The problem was quickly fixed.

Ledcor has toured all of its major corporate clients through the construction site, in hopes of creating a profitable halo effect from the building.

“It’s expertise. They can see that we’re not just a one-line company,” said Bob Scott, the Ledcor senior project director who has led the Bow project.

And there is little denying the scale of the Bow construction effort. Because it was building in the middle of a crowded urban environment, Ledcor had little spare space to work with – and has had to warehouse most of its construction materials at a large offsite yard. The company was obligated to turn delivery timing into an art form.

Another unique aspect: To save time and costs, each of the restrooms in the building was built in Ontario as a fully-finished, fully-furnished unit inside a container. Each container was then shipped, lifted into place and connected to plumbing, ready for use. Even the light bulbs were screwed in several thousand kilometres away.

Ledcor also had to contend with hiring up to 1,250 staff – the Bow’s peak labour requirement – in a province that was, when construction began, suffering from an overheated economy. But it got lucky: The downturn came just as construction ramped up. Suddenly, workers from Fort McMurray became available.

That doesn’t mean the Bow has been Ledcor’s most profitable endeavour.

“These big trophy assets are difficult, and at the end you say, ‘I could have made more money building 10 smaller towers,’ ” said Greg Kwong, regional managing director for CB Richard Ellis in Calgary. “But at the same time, you need these big trophy assets as far as stars on your chest are concerned, to help promote your company.”

RBC & BNS R AOK

BNS and RBC expected to be winners in next decade
Financial Post
John Greenwood 
November 16, 2010
Canadian banks are at a crossroads. Faced with tougher regulatory rules, a difficult economy and a host of other challenges, players are scrutinizing their crystal balls as they plot their way forward in an environment quite unlike anything they have experienced.

According to UBS analyst Peter Rozenberg, the best way to pick winners of the coming decade is with traditional yardsticks of past performance.

After reviewing 10 years of historical data, Mr. Rozenberg found that while its helpful to look at measures such as provisions for credit losses and product mix, more important contributors to future performance are likely to be growth in earnings per share and return on equity.

“We also used ‘reported’ data as opposed to our usual convention of ‘core’ data, which excludes one-time items,” he said in a note to clients. “While core data is better for establishing trend earnings and valuation, we think reported data provides a better measure of real returns and capital management, over a long period of time.”

The winners? Bank of Nova Scotia and Royal Bank of Canada are best positioned to come out on top, Mr. Rozenberg said.

BNS is at the top of the list because of its geographic diversification and focus on emerging markets in Asia and South America, providing “the best opportunities for capital deployment.”

The Royal comes a close second due to its track record of “superior organic growth,” lower costs and dominant business position.

6 SUGGESTIONS - DO THE MATH!

Six suggestions for avoiding mortgage fraud

DIANNE NICE
Globe and Mail Update
Published Monday, Oct. 18, 2010

Whenever the housing market starts to heat up, so does mortgage and real estate fraud. Buyers rush through deals to avoid losing out, but can end up being scammed if they’re not careful.

While there are no statistics on these types of fraud in Canada, in the United States, it is estimated to cost victims between $4-billion and $6-billion (U.S.) a year.

“Mortgage scams are carried out in all different forms and involve a multitude of people, some who don't even know they're being taken advantage of,” says Diane Scott, president of the Calgary Real Estate Board.

Ms. Scott says at least two types of mortgage fraud have occurred in Calgary this year. One is property flipping, in which a dishonest seller artificially inflates the value of a property using a phony appraisal and then sells it for a large profit. The phony appraisal often remains with the property through multiple transactions, making it difficult to determine the property's true worth, and the end buyer is left paying for a mortgage that is much higher than the home's value.

The other involves “straw buyers,” who are offered money to lend their identity and good credit record for use on fraudulent mortgage applications. The fraudster uses the information to apply for a loan, then disappears with the money, leaving the straw buyer on the hook for the mortgage payments.

Other types of real estate scams include title fraud, where your identity is stolen and used to assume the title of your property, which can then be used to sell your home or get a new mortgage. The criminal takes the mortgage money and runs. You may not even find out about the fraud until the lender contacts you or someone pulls up in a moving van, claiming to be the new owner of the house.

And there’s also foreclosure fraud, in which a homeowner having trouble paying a mortgage is offered a loan in exchange for up-front fees and an agreement to transfer the property title to the scammer, who is then able to take the victim’s loan payments, sell the house or remortgage it and leave with the money.

While a lawyer, realtor or licensed mortgage broker can help ensure all legal precautions are taken, it’s still important to do your homework before you buy, Ms. Scott says. Here’s her advice on how to avoid becoming a victim of fraud:

1. Beware of unusual offers. Never lend your identity to anyone or sign documents you do not fully understand. “If it sounds too good to be true, then it probably is,” Ms. Scott says.

2. Do the math. Look at the listing history on the property and do a comparative market analysis. Check the number of sales and price ranges for the community. If the home’s listing price is much higher than the average value of neighbouring homes, it could mean someone is flipping the property or has had it fraudulently appraised.

3. Don’t assume the seller is honest. Get your own realtor or independent representation for your purchase. If the seller objects, something is wrong.

4. Do a land title search. This will show the name of the property owner, any mortgages or liens registered on the title, as well as previous sales and transfers. You can also buy title insurance to protect against title fraud.

5. Get your own appraisal. You may want to include, as part of your offer to purchase, the option to have the property appraised by a member of the Appraisal Institute of Canada.

6. Secure your deposit. Make sure your money is being held in a real estate trust account by a realtor or lawyer. This will ensure your money is safe until the deal closes.

Photo by: Barnesnet

BARGAIN BASEMENT MORTGAGE BINS?

Money is on sale!

Ted Rechtshaffen
Special to Globe and Mail Update
Published Friday, Oct. 15, 2010

This month, a client locked in a five-year mortgage at 3.49 per cent.


They could have done the same in 2001, but it would have been about 7 per cent.

In 1982 it would have been 18 per cent.

Even in the low-rate days of 1952, it would have been about 5.5 per cent.

Borrowing costs are lower than any time in modern history. This represents an incredible opportunity for those with the foresight (or fortitude) to take advantage.

Here are five strategies to consider:

1) When borrowing, lock in today’s rates. I know that at most times a variable rate is a better solution than fixed. Today is not "most times." If you are getting a new mortgage, lock it in. Even if it is only for three years, you can get a three-year mortgage today for under 3 per cent. The best three and five-year variable rates today are 2.25 per cent, but the Bank of Canada is almost certain to begin hiking rates again within six months. With such a narrow gap between a variable rate and a fixed rate, it simply isn’t worth the risk.

2) If you own a house, consolidate all your debts against your home. While credit card debt remains as high as 19 per cent in many cases, and other unsecured debts might be in the 5-per-cent to 7-per-cent range, you may have an opportunity to move those debts to your mortgage and gain significant savings. Even having a line of credit at prime + 1 per cent (4 per cent) can be consolidated into a mortgage for real savings. As an example, if your home is worth $500,000, and you have a mortgage balance of less than $400,000 (80 per cent), you will likely be able to consolidate other debts in your mortgage, up to 80 per cent of your home’s appraised value.

3) Start a business. As a business owner, I know that getting capital is not easy. The most common response I heard when I was looking many years ago was “use a line of credit secured by your house.” This might not be right for everyone, but I can assure you that you will not find a lower-cost source of capital (except those interest-free loans from family). In fact, I would look at using a fixed-rate mortgage as opposed to a line of credit if you require a larger amount of funds up front or want to secure the rate.

4) Borrow to invest. While some believe this is gambling, I can assure you that, unlike at the Las Vegas tables, the odds are tilted toward you. If you borrow to invest, the interest cost becomes tax deductible. In today’s market, you could do a five-year mortgage at 3.5 per cent, and if you are in the top tax bracket, this will effectively cost you less than 2 per cent a year. Over the past 60 years, the Toronto Stock Index has averaged annual returns of over 10 per cent. I am not saying you can count on these returns every year, but if your borrowing cost is under 2 per cent, and a dividend portfolio can pay 4 per cent a year just on the dividends, it can be a very powerful wealth-building strategy.

5) Borrow to buy more real estate. Imagine having an $800,000 house in Vancouver or Toronto and having no debt. You decide to buy a beautiful ocean-front property in Florida or California. The new property costs $300,000 – and they want cash. You can take out a mortgage on your Canadian property to possibly make the real estate purchase of a lifetime. If you are considering this, be sure to use a foreign-exchange dealer to save on exchange costs, and look into the tax issues of owning real estate in the United States.

Just for fun, you might want to file away this article and open it up in about five years. You may just wish you took the plunge when money was on sale.

Photo by: Dreamer7112

RESALE PACE TO CLIMB

Resale home pace expected to climb
By Marty Hope, Calgary Herald
October 16, 2010

With a struggling economy and housing sector, anything the least bit positive is a good thing.

So it has been for the past couple of weeks -- a scrap of good news here and there.

Statistics Canada was first out of the chute with news that the Calgary area's unemployment rate for September declined to 6.6 per cent -- down from 6.7 per cent in August and declining even further from the 6.9 per cent in September 2009.

That being said, there were 1,400 fewer jobs created last month compared with August 2010.

But since the first of the year, job creation is still ahead of 2009, says Statistics Canada.

Job creation is good news for the new and resale housing sectors for obvious reasons.

The Calgary Real Estate Board has also chipped in with its good news.

In its latest activity report, the board reported sales of both detached single-family homes and multi-family condos climbed in September compared to August.

In terms of detached homes, 958 changed hands, up from 867 in August.

As for condos, the September sales total was 366, two more than were sold in August.

But compared to the same month last year, sales numbers for September were off.

CREB president Diane Scott took the positive road in her September summary, saying fall sales "should improve slightly" to reflect the latest Statistics Canada report.

"There are signs that September may mark a gradual, if not slight, uptick for Calgary's housing market," she says. "We are seeing a modest improvement since the market's decline that started in April of this year."

In the earlier part of the year, home-buyers -- first-timers for the most part -- decided to move up their purchase dates to beat expected hikes in interest rates and changes to mortgage rules.

When both these factors came into play, people who hadn't bought stepped back from the market, taking a wait-and-see attitude.

There were also those who continued to be concerned about the strength -- or lack of strength -- in the economy.

Here again was a bit of good news. Mortgage rates have not moved dramatically and the average price of used homes is holding fairly steady.

"The Bank of Canada is in no hurry to raise interest rates to any significant level and affordability continues to improve in key segments of the Calgary housing market," says Scott. "These factors, along with great selection, have clearly tipped this market in favour of the buyer."

The average price of detached single-family homes in September within Calgary was $460,278, up three per cent from August but almost unchanged from $459,085 in the same month last year.

The average selling price for condos inside Calgary was $284,028 last month -- down one per cent from August and two per cent from September 2009.

While the market, itself, appears to be undergoing a slight change, the makeup of the buyer is also getting a facelift.

"Clearly, there is a shift in the types of buyers entering the market," says Scott.

"It was first-time buyers who drove the late market recovery last fall and this spring.

"While lower-priced home sales have declined, sales over $1 million have actually increased by two per cent this year compared with the same period last year."
- - -
MILLION SALES UP

For the first nine months of this year, million-dollar-plus sales of used homes totalled 286, up from 229 during the same period last year, says the Calgary Real Estate Board.

But the highest volume of sales of detached single-family resale homes are occurring in Calgary in homes priced between $300,000 and $399,999.

They amount to nearly 38 per cent, a slight improvement over 2009. Meanwhile, the vast majority of condo sales -- more than 47 per cent -- were priced from $200,000 to $299,999.

A year ago, this category accounted for nearly 51 per cent of all condominium sales. "While consumer confidence has strengthened and the unemployment picture has improved, economic jitters will continue to impact Calgary's housing market," says president Diane Scott of CREB. "More and more home buyers will eventually return to the marketplace, but for the moment, they remain moderately cautious."

Photo By: Dave van Hulsteyn

SAMPLE MENU OR FULL MENU?

TO LISTEN TO CHRISTINA'S FEEDBACK ON THIS DEAL, LISTEN TO CBC RADIO ON OCTOBER 2 @ 7:30a.m.

Landmark deal to transform how Canadians buy, sell real estate
Limiting agent services may save sellers thousands
By Tim Shufelt And Theresa Tedesco,
National Post, with files from Garry Marr

In a development that could drastically change the way Canadians buy and sell their homes, the real estate industry has reached a landmark agreement with federal competition authorities.

The legally binding deal will allow for home sellers to pay for only those services they want from their real estate agents. Previously, under the rules established by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), consumers had to opt for an entire slate of services, a practice the Competition Bureau deemed anti-competitive.

One of the most significant victories for the competition watchdog in the past decade, the settlement could save millions of Canadians thousands of dollars when they sell their homes. Instead of paying a full-service real estate agent up to 5% of the total sale value, a home seller can now pay a nominal fee for an agent to list the property on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). According to Derek Holt, an economist with the Bank of Nova Scotia, the difference could mean $15,000 in pocketed savings for the owner of an average-priced Canadian home.

The deal caps more than four years of feuding between the industry and the federal watchdog. In February, the Competition Bureau formally challenged CREA's practices, claiming they "limit consumer choice" and prevent real estate agents from offering lower cost services to customers.

At the heart of the complaint was the MLS, which is owned by CREA and is responsible for about 90% of home sales in the country. The real estate group fired back, accusing the commissioner of tarnishing the reputation of the profession with unfounded condemnations of its practices. But many industry observers said the public relations war was unwinnable for CREA and that its days of rejecting "a la carte" services were numbered.

"Since challenging CREA's rules, the Bureau's goal has always been to achieve a long-term solution that would strengthen competition in the residential real estate brokerage services market," Melanie Aitken, commissioner of competition, said in a release.

Ms. Aitken said the agreement, which has yet to be ratified, will allow real estate agents to "offer the variety of services and prices that meet the needs of consumers."

Meanwhile, CREA maintained that, despite the agreement, its rules did not "prevent or restrict a broad range of business models," the association said in a release. "In CREA's view, the consent agreement reflects this reality and would avoid unnecessary and expensive litigation proceedings."

Lawrence Dale, a Toronto-based real estate lawyer who sued CREA, told the Post the industry association buckled in signing the consent agreement.

"It's a complete capitulation and acknowledgment that what was being done in the past was improper and that they've now agreed in a legally binding document that they won't do it again," he said late yesterday.

Mr. Dale, who launched a discount brokerage RealtySellers, claimed he was forced out of business in 2006 as a result of new rules implemented by CREA.

"This is precisely what I've been fighting for for the last decade," he said. "That the consumer and real estate agent get to decide the framework of their relationship without having CREA and their local boards say certain arrangements are not appropriate for MLS."

The consent agreement is an important victory for the regulator because it provides the bureau with a legally binding settlement that can be used against CREA if the association fails to act on the agreed terms.

The bureau had previously rejected CREA's proposed rule changes, insisting that a consent agreement is necessary to ensure a permanent solution.

Don Lawby, chief executive of Century 21 Ltd. conceded the real estate industry "looked like we were tying to hold onto a monopoly" but argued that was not the case.

Photo By: Razvan Marescu