FUEL EXPANSION

Calgary and Edmonton to lead Canadian economic growth
Energy-related investment to fuel expansion
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald September 18, 2012

CALGARY — Calgary and Edmonton are forecast to be the fastest growing economies in Canada over the next four years, according to the Conference Board of Canada’s Metropolitan Outlook-Autumn 2012 released Tuesday.

“Energy-related investment in Alberta is expected to stay vibrant throughout the next four years. For instance, about $29-billion worth of energy-related projects are now underway in the province, and nearly $86-billion worth of projects are proposed for the future,” said Mario Lefebvre, Director, Centre for Municipal Studies, for the board.

“All this investment will continue to be a boon to Calgary’s economy, which remains the services hub of the province’s energy sector.”

The board is forecasting Calgary to have the best economic growth in the country over 2013-2016 at an average of 3.7 per cent followed by Edmonton’s average annual real GDP growth at 3.5 per cent during the forecast period.

For this year, the board is predicting Edmonton will lead the country with 4.6 per cent growth followed by Calgary at 3.8 per cent.

“Without a doubt, I expect that Alberta is going to be the envy of the country moving forward into closing out 2012 and into 2013,” said Ben Brunnen, chief economist with the Calgary Chamber of Commerce. “While the growth will be the strongest in the country, particularly for our cities, that doesn’t necessarily mean that we’re in great economic times.

“There are some storm clouds on the horizon. I expect fully we’ll see a recession in Europe. The Chinese economy is slowing substantially. And the U.S. has its election coming forward. What this means is there’s going to be a dampening on economic growth globally and as a consequence it’s going to affect Canada. That said, the investment in the province has been strong to date and should continue to be strong.”

The board said Calgary is coming off a “very strong performance” in 2011 with economic growth at 5.0 per cent. The strong growth expected during the forecast period will be “helped along by strong consumer spending and spinoff benefits from the energy sector.”

Employment growth is forecast for 4.1 per cent this year in Calgary followed by annual growth rates of 1.9 per cent, 2.6 per cent, 2.5 per cent, and 2.1 per cent from 2013 to 2016. And retail sales are forecast to grow by 9.2 per cent this year followed by growth of 6.2 per cent, 5.3 per cent, 5.3 per cent and 4.8 per cent during the forecast period.

Also on Tuesday, a report by TD Economics said Canada will likely experience a shift from household and government-led growth towards exports and investment, but global headwinds appear to have delayed this transition until the first half of 2013.

In the meantime, the report said, the economy will be stuck in neutral and Canada’s economic expansion will be constrained to a pace near two per cent.

“In the first half of 2012, governments constrained their spending while households pared back their rate of borrowing and spent at a miserly pace. While most major housing markets have held up reasonably well, there are signs — most notably in Vancouver — that markets have reached a peak,” said TD Bank Group’s chief economist Craig Alexander. “And in the near term, the slowdown is expected to broaden across the country, following the implementation of tighter rules on insured-mortgage lending this past summer.

“Canada’s economy has turned out a relatively strong performance in recent years, but the growth has not been broadly based and imbalances have amassed. On the plus side, governments and households, which have been pulling Canada’s economy along by the coat-tails for years, have begun to address their debt challenges. Recent changes to mortgage borrowing rules will help to address part of the over-valuation in housing markets. Going forward, it will be equally critical for the economy to transition to more export and investment-led growth.”

Photo By : Bulliver

FAMILY SIZE & THE CONDO MARKET

Shrinking family sizes bode well for Canada’s condo sector
Garry Marr
Financial Post Sep 19, 2012

Maybe the condo industry knew something revealed to the rest of us only Wednesday — family sizes are shrinking.

Statistics Canada’s census data showed a dramatic increase in one-person households, up 10.4% from 2006 to 2011. For the first-time, more households were comprised of couples without children than with children. Family size also shrunk, with the average number of children dropping from 2.7 in 1961 to 1.9 in 2011.

All of this seems to bode well for a condominium sector which demands its occupants accept smaller quarters than they are historically used to.

“I think the housing stock has already responded,” said Don Lawby, chief executive of Century 21 Canada. “I think the major cities are the ones that reacted the fastest. There is a movement that has been forced by economics to smaller accommodation.”

Mr. Lawby notes if you’ve made the decision not to have children, as the statistics show some have, that means you are living a very different life and your housing needs are not the same.

“Of course, this all plays into the condo’s hand,” he says. “But there still will be people who desire to have a single family detached home where they are the king of the castle.”

The evidence already points to huge demand for high-rise units, both from buyers who want to live in the units and investors who rent them out. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said it expects 207,200 new housing starts with 123,700 in the multiple-unit category, predominantly made up of condominiums.

And while there are forecasts that the housing market is slowing, the Crown corporation is still predicting 193,100 starts next year with 109,000 coming from the multiple category. Condominium projects in Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto have driven the demand, CMHC says.

Brian Johnston, chief operating officer of Mattamy Corp., said the industry has been responding rather than leading. “I think there has been demand for smaller housing,” he said.

All of this might just confirm what the real estate industry has been saying all along — they were just giving the people what they want. “I see these comments that builders are building too many houses — builders don’t create new houses because it’s a good idea, they do it because there is demand,” says Mr. Johnston, noting bank financing requires high pre-sale levels.

Doug Norris, chief demographer at Environics Analytics, predicts the impact on real estate of the country’s changing demographics is just starting. “Part of the condo boom is driven by Boomers starting to downsize and move into new types of housing,” he said. “[Living in] the single family [home] starts to dwindle after 50.”

Though the impact of the Baby Boomers has yet to be seen, Mr. Norris said they will probably downsize more than their predecessors.

Craig Alexander, chief economist with Toronto-Dominion Bank, says while there definitely is more demand for condo-style living, the overall amount of housing stock being built is still above household formation.

“We can tell from the census numbers that we are building too many houses,” says Mr. Alexander, noting there were 189,000 net new households per year from 2006 to 2011. “Yet when we look at the pace of home construction it has been well over 200,000 and in fact it was 218,000 annualized starts so far in 2012.”

He says you can build past demographic requirements for a short period, perhaps catching up with a previous lag, but it has to stop at some point.

“On the one hand I am concerned about the condo market because when we look at the current pace of construction and compare it to a generally sustainable rate, it’s way too fast but over the long haul there is long-term strong demand for condos,” says Mr. Alexander.

MARKET CONFIDENCE

Resale condo pace reflects 'confidence'
By Josh Skapin
Calgary Herald September 7, 2012

Total sales of resale condos in Calgary continued to climb in August, rising 19 per cent compared to the same month last year, says the Calgary Real Estate Board.

There were 556 sales of apartments and townhouses last month, up from 468 transactions in August 2011, says the board.

The biggest increase came in townhouses, which saw a 31 per cent hike in resale activity last month compared to the same month last year.

But the average resale price for townhouses in Calgary in August was $281,941, 3.45 per cent lower than the same period last year.

“Some continue to foresee a scenario where price declines are looming in the local housing market, especially given national trends,” says chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie in a news release.

“There is no question economic concerns can threaten our housing recovery. However, to date, Calgary housing market consumers are exhibiting confidence evidenced through the pick-up in sales activity across all housing types.”

While townhouse prices are down, the average resale price of condo apartments was 7.22-per-cent higher last month than in 2011, rising to $281,941 per unit.

The area in Calgary with the highest condo apartment and townhouse resale activity in the city last month was in Zone C, which roughly corresponds to the city’s southwest.

Not only did the area have 288 deals, it also had the highest average resale price at $314,467.

Zone A, which roughly corresponds to the city’s northwest, saw the second highest sales totals and average price.

The average price in Zone A was $294,867 for 155 sales last month.

Zone D, which translates to southeast Calgary, had 66 transactions last month at an average rate of $287,340.

At the same time, Zone B, which covers northeast, Calgary saw 47 units change hands at an average price of $172,234.

DID YOU KNOW?

The biggest increase in condo apartment resale activity in Calgary has come in the $200,000 to $299,999 price range, says the Calgary Real Estate Board.

To Aug.1, 1,132 units in this price range changed hands in Calgary, up from only 949 sales during the same month last year.

The $200,000 to $299,999 price range led all condo sales in the city in August, alone, at 151.

THE SEVEN BEST

Canada among 7 best housing markets in the world
Mamta Badkar
Business Insider Sep 5, 2012

While much of the world is seeing home prices depreciate, there are a few countries where home prices are on the rise.Canada ranked among Germany, Switzerland and Hong Kong in the top 7 housing markets.

Global Property Guide’s latest report shows, however, that even the strongest housing markets are losing momentum as the economy falters.

Of the 39 countries tracked by GPG quarterly house prices fell in 25 countries and climbed in just 13.

We published the worst housing markets Tuesday, and today we’ve highlighted the 7 best housing markets in the world, based on year-over-year home price changes.

Canada ranked among Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong in the top 7.

Home prices in Hong Kong were up 3.01 percent year-over-year (YoY) and 6.85 percent quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) in Q2 2012

Home prices in Canada were up 4.06% YoY and 1.59% QoQ in Q2 2012

Home prices in Switzerland were up 4.86 percent YoY but down 0.54 percent QoQ in Q2 2012

Home prices in Germany were up 5.24 percent YoY but down 2.02 percent QoQ in Q2 2012



Home prices in Delhi, India were up 6.23 percent YoY nut down 1.09 percent QoQ in Q2 2012

Home prices in Norway were up 6.26 percent YoY and up 2.98 percent QoQ in Q2 2012



Home prices in Sao Paulo, Brazil were up 15.56 percent YoY and 2.38 percent QoQ in Q2 2012

Photo By: cityNnature

BATHROOM ORGANIZING

Bathroom organizing tips

By Jennifer Weatherhead

Style At Home

Bathroom organizing ideas that’ll help keep your bathroom clean, tidy and functional.

When it comes to keeping one of the most-used rooms in your home, the beautiful bathroom, clean and functional, it all comes down to getting and keeping your bathroom organized. With so many people in and out of this room, and so many products, towels and small appliances making their way into the bathroom, it can turn into a place of chaos. But with our expert organizing tips from designer Rosemary Carbonara, you can get your bathroom completely organized and be able to easily access everything you need in just a few steps.

Bathroom organizing: Get started with these essentials

Before making sure everything is in its place, you’ll need to invest in a few items to keep things clean. If you’re starting your bathroom from scratch with a renovation or a new home, it’s the ideal time to create some special nooks and built-in organizational options that will make keeping your bathroom tidy much easier. Here are Rosemary’s organizing tips for clean and functional bathroom decor:

-Opt for a soap dispenser rather than tray and a bar of soap to keep the sink area clean.

-If you’re starting from scratch, have your vanity float off the floor so that mopping and cleaning is made easier and dirt does not pile up against the toe kick.

-Install wire shelves in the corner or wall of your shower to keep soaps and shampoos off the shower floor. Or install a niche in your shower that can house showering products if you are adding a new tub or shower.

-Have a medicine cabinet at the back of your mirror to house those small items. If you are starting from scratch, design it to be recessed into the wall with the mirror on front.

-Make use of the space above the toilet with shallow shelves for storage of extra towels, washcloths, etc.

-Have drawers in your cabinetry – always opt for drawers over doors for easy access and visibility of products and small appliances.

Keep products out of sight

Unless you have a beautifully bottled skincare product, soap or scent, the best way to keep you bathroom organized is to keep items off the counter or sink, and stored in cupboards, your linen closet or drawers. Organize your products by need (for example, tooth care products, skincare products, makeup, etc.) and be sure to keep items that you use on a daily basis in the easiest spot to access. Invest in dividers and compartments to help keep drawers sectioned off for specific items.

Keep towels and shower items accessible

Shelving is key when it comes to bathrooms, especially if you are cramped on space and have a small area to work with. Rosemary’s favourite place to make use of is above the toilet.

“Shallow shelves above the toilet are great for storing towels,” she says. If you can’t add shelving above the toilet, Rosemary recommends purchasing a seagrass- or leather hamper-like container with a lid to store towels or items you want to keep out of sight.

And, as mentioned above, shelving in a shower (especially a small stand-up shower) is essential for holding shampoos, conditioners, body wash and loofas. Built-in shelving is ideal, but wire-hanging shelves also fit nicely in showers and tubs.

Make the most of your linen closet

Keeping your linen closet organized is another way to make life easier when it comes to a tidy bathroom. An organized linen closet allows you to store products you don’t use every day in baskets or drawers in a place other than your bathroom. It’s the ideal place for extra towels, cleaning products and small appliances such as curling irons and flat irons. Just make sure you keep it as tidy as your bathroom!

WRESTLING UP A DEAL!

15 tactics to win a real estate bidding war
Business Insider
Aug 22, 2012

Canada’s housing market is slowing, but bidding wars are still common in major markets like Toronto.

And as the U.S. housing market shows signs of recovery, homebuyers are flocking to snap up deals on bargain properties across the country.

That means running into competition is par for the course — and the weakest bids will not survive.

“If you are serious about buying, it becomes a bit of a part time job,” says Zillow.com real estate expert Brendon DeSimone. “This is your home and your only investment.”

We asked DeSimone to clue consumers into how they can make their bids stand out.

Don't wait for the open house

DeSimone is quick to advise clients to see as many houses as possible on weekends––whether or not they're invited.

"With the Internet, information moves so quickly. [Sellers] could do a private showing Wednesday [days before a scheduled open house]" he says. "If it looks good online, go see it."

Check email hourly for listing updates from your broker

"If you're a serious buyer, you make it a priority in your life and you're going to get email alerts from your broker every other hour," he says.

"Be in touch with your agent and know about new properties as they hit the market."

Don't be intimidated by higher bidders

These days, investors and average joes alike are flocking to snatch up deals on homes. Don't let them psych you out, DeSimone says.

"Don’t spend too much energy trying to figure out what’s really going on with the other offers. If you love the property, keep moving forward, but at your own pace. Make the offer you’re comfortable with, and only when you’re comfortable making it."

Make sure your broker is local and well-known

That's because 80 percent of business is done by just 20 percent of brokers. The more respected they are within the community, the better shot they have at wooing listing agents.

"My clients (win) because the listing agent knows me," DeSimone says. "In a competitive situation, working with a known broker will make the listing agent feel better and boost your chances, especially if two offers are close."

Get in the listing agent's good graces

Why? Because the listing agent is the only person who meets all the parties involved in a sale.

"Though the seller ultimately decides and signs a contract, the listing agent has a giant say in who gets the property in a competitive situation," DeSimone says. "If you make a good impression with the listing agent, you are in much better shape. Acting like a jerk to the agent tells the sellers to work with another offer."

Line up an appraisal even before making an offer

Per DeSimone:

"One thing I once did was to have the bank try to get an appraiser lined up and on their calendar before an offer was made. That way, the buyer could tell the seller that the appraisal would happen within x days of signing a contract. If you tell the seller two or three weeks, your offer looks weaker."

Look for the WORST house on the block

It may sound counterintuitive, but you're better off looking at a fixer-upper than going for the McMansion next door. Chances are competition won't be as fierce.

Says DeSimone:

"You can always improve the property and therefore increase its value. And because it’s on a great block, improvements you make to the home will be practically guaranteed to give you a top return on your investment. Just don’t get carried away and turn the worst house on the block into the biggest and most expensive one."

Keep tabs on your mortgage lender and rates

Once you've been pre-approved for a loan, have your mortgage broker or lender write a letter saying as much.

"Even reference the property so that the listing agent knows that the lender/mortgage broker is up to speed," DeSimone says.

Keep an eye on current mortgage rates

"Sometimes the rates drop or increase significantly from the time you first spoke to the lender and the time you write an offer," DeSimone says.

"If rates have decreased, maybe you can afford more. You should know this."

Know your neighbors––and what their homes are worth

Getting to know the neighborhood you're hoping to call home one day goes far beyond scoping out local schools and seeing who prowls the streets at night.

"When you are ready to seriously write offers and compete, you should know what is going on with the local neighborhood market," DeSimone says. "Follow what has recently sold, what was competitive and what was not."

Try bending the rules a little

Per DeSimone:

"One thing I did in the past was with a very serious and motivated buyer. The home was vacant [sellers moved out]. So, we went in with an inspector because the home had a lock box. The buyer did their inspections before writing the offer. This way the buyer could make an offer knowing what the issues were, if any. And, for their offer they could waive their inspections contingency. No inspections means no risk for the seller."

Hire an inspector within two days

"Order the inspection before you write the offer. It doesn’t necessarily have to be two days but your offer should show the seller that you are prepared to move quickly," DeSimone says.

"If you wait two weeks and then the inspector finds something and you walk away, the seller is left out to dry. The seller wants to know this is out of the way quickly."

Use cash to put your bid over the edge

More often than not, most homebuyers simply can't afford to plop down $180,000 in cash on a new home.

But when it comes to sweetening your bid, offering to pay at least the deposit in cash could push you over the edge.

"The more you offer, the better," DeSimone says.

Put your passion into words

Once you've had the chance to get to know the current owners, don't be afraid to appeal to their interests the old-fashioned way.

"I've seen buyers Google the owners and see that they have a love for horses, so they wrote them a letter talking about their love for horses, too," DeSimone says. "Sometimes it'll work [to give you an edge]."

Don't get distracted by what you can't afford

As with any bidding war, it's important to be quick on your feet. People slow themselves down when they don't stick to what they can afford, DeSimone says.

"Know your limits on the high and low end. Knowing this will allow you to act fast," he says, as it'll help your broker weed out properties out of your range.

Photo By: Fabbio

LESS WILD, MORE URBAN

Alberta housing leads nation: CMHC
Latest forecast predicts more construction in Western Canada
By Lewis Kelly
Edmonton Journal August 15, 2012

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation forecast Tuesday that housing construction and sales will increase modestly in 2013 in Alberta while activity in most of the country slows down.

The Crown corporation's latest housing market outlook predicts 400 more housing starts in 2013 in Alberta than 2012. That represents just 1.25-per-cent growth, but CMHC predicts national construction activity to decline 6.8 per cent over the same period.

"The economy in Alberta has been improving and is expected to be one of the leaders in economic growth," said Richard Cho, senior market analyst with CMHC's prairie division. "That will naturally support the housing market."

Cho said CMHC's forecast for Alberta hinges on continued job production, international and interprovincial immigration boosting population growth, and the price of oil staying high enough to encourage continued investment in the province's energy sector.

Oil has been trading around $90 a barrel since early August after reaching a yearly low of $79.69 in June. CMHC forecasts employment growth of 2.5 per cent in Edmonton and 2.9 per cent in Calgary in 2013, and net migration growth of 28 per cent to 57,800 in the coming year.

Tuesday's edition of the corporation's outlook, released four times a year, predicts just over 32,000 housing starts in the coming year for the province, 11,000 of those in Edmonton. The forecast calls for the resale market to also grow, reaching 59,800 by the end of this year and 61,000 in 2013.

Cho said the market has favoured buyers until recently and should move to a balanced state, boosting price growth in the process. The CMHC's forecast calls for prices to rise 2.5 per cent this year and 2.8 per cent in 2013 across Alberta, bringing the average home sale to $372,300.

The provincial picture differs from the national numbers. CMHC predicted 193,100 units of housing will get built across Canada in 2013 - down around seven per cent both from previous forecasts and 2012's forecast numbers.

Cho said the new federal mortgage rules introduced in July, which knock five years off the maximum amortization period, will soften demand for housing, but other factors ultimately carry more weight in real estate.

"The rules will certainly have an impact on housing demand, but it isn't the only factor" he said. "Housing demand is also supported by growth in employment and earnings as well as migration flows and relatively low mortgage rates."