FAMILY SIZE & THE CONDO MARKET

Shrinking family sizes bode well for Canada’s condo sector
Garry Marr
Financial Post Sep 19, 2012

Maybe the condo industry knew something revealed to the rest of us only Wednesday — family sizes are shrinking.

Statistics Canada’s census data showed a dramatic increase in one-person households, up 10.4% from 2006 to 2011. For the first-time, more households were comprised of couples without children than with children. Family size also shrunk, with the average number of children dropping from 2.7 in 1961 to 1.9 in 2011.

All of this seems to bode well for a condominium sector which demands its occupants accept smaller quarters than they are historically used to.

“I think the housing stock has already responded,” said Don Lawby, chief executive of Century 21 Canada. “I think the major cities are the ones that reacted the fastest. There is a movement that has been forced by economics to smaller accommodation.”

Mr. Lawby notes if you’ve made the decision not to have children, as the statistics show some have, that means you are living a very different life and your housing needs are not the same.

“Of course, this all plays into the condo’s hand,” he says. “But there still will be people who desire to have a single family detached home where they are the king of the castle.”

The evidence already points to huge demand for high-rise units, both from buyers who want to live in the units and investors who rent them out. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said it expects 207,200 new housing starts with 123,700 in the multiple-unit category, predominantly made up of condominiums.

And while there are forecasts that the housing market is slowing, the Crown corporation is still predicting 193,100 starts next year with 109,000 coming from the multiple category. Condominium projects in Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto have driven the demand, CMHC says.

Brian Johnston, chief operating officer of Mattamy Corp., said the industry has been responding rather than leading. “I think there has been demand for smaller housing,” he said.

All of this might just confirm what the real estate industry has been saying all along — they were just giving the people what they want. “I see these comments that builders are building too many houses — builders don’t create new houses because it’s a good idea, they do it because there is demand,” says Mr. Johnston, noting bank financing requires high pre-sale levels.

Doug Norris, chief demographer at Environics Analytics, predicts the impact on real estate of the country’s changing demographics is just starting. “Part of the condo boom is driven by Boomers starting to downsize and move into new types of housing,” he said. “[Living in] the single family [home] starts to dwindle after 50.”

Though the impact of the Baby Boomers has yet to be seen, Mr. Norris said they will probably downsize more than their predecessors.

Craig Alexander, chief economist with Toronto-Dominion Bank, says while there definitely is more demand for condo-style living, the overall amount of housing stock being built is still above household formation.

“We can tell from the census numbers that we are building too many houses,” says Mr. Alexander, noting there were 189,000 net new households per year from 2006 to 2011. “Yet when we look at the pace of home construction it has been well over 200,000 and in fact it was 218,000 annualized starts so far in 2012.”

He says you can build past demographic requirements for a short period, perhaps catching up with a previous lag, but it has to stop at some point.

“On the one hand I am concerned about the condo market because when we look at the current pace of construction and compare it to a generally sustainable rate, it’s way too fast but over the long haul there is long-term strong demand for condos,” says Mr. Alexander.

A TOAST WITH 7UP

Calgary MLS sales in 2011 beat Canadian average
Up 7.0% from the previous year
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald January 17, 2012

Calgary MLS sales in 2011 bested the Canadian average for year-over-year growth, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

In releasing its year-end data on Monday, the association said sales of 22,466 units last year were up 7.0 per cent from the previous year while in Canada sales grew by 2.2 per cent to 456,749 transactions.

Sales across Alberta jumped by 6.9 per cent to 53,146 units.

However, Calgary and Alberta were behind the national average when it came to the annual price hike.

Calgary and Alberta registered 1.0 per cent year-over-year gains in the average MLS sale price to $402,851 and $355,808 respectively.

The national average was a 7.2 per cent hike to $363,346.

"The momentum in sales activity provides clear evidence that low interest rates continue to draw homebuyers to the housing market," Gary Morse, CREA's president, said in a statement. "While buyers have become increasingly cautious, the hand-off for sales activity going into the New Year suggests that Canada's housing market will continue to benefit from low interest rates in 2012, and continue making a significant contribution to Canadian economic activity."

Momentum for national sales activity and average price remains positive but is slowing, which suggests that the continuation of low interest rates is not causing the Canadian housing market to overheat, said Gregory Klump, CREA's chief economist.

"High-end home sales seem unlikely to spike again in the first quarter like they did at the beginning of 2011, so national average price momentum may wane further over the next few months," he said. "With interest rates widely expected to remain low throughout 2012, home ownership will remain affordable, and continue to support home sales activity."

Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist with BMO Capital Markets, said the Canadian housing market showed distinct signs of moderation in late 2011, with even some of the hottest of the hot cities simmering down.

COMPARATIVE DATA

Calgary MLS sales in 2011 top 2010: CREB
Eight per cent hike year over year
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald January 3, 2012

CALGARY - Calgary residential MLS sales in 2011 increased by eight per cent over the previous year, says the Calgary Real Estate Board.

In releasing its December data on Tuesday, CREB said total sales reached 18,568 for 2011 compared with 17,267 in 2010.

“Recovering from tepid sales activity in the first half of 2011, early improvements in employment and migration resulted in a pickup in housing demand in the second half of the year,” said the board in a news release. “By the end of June 2011, year-to-date sales activity had only increased by two per cent compared to the second half of the year, where residential sales improved by 15 per cent.”

Sano Stante, president of CREB, said sales activity remained 17 per cent below the long-run average but monthly figures point toward the trend of this gap narrowing.

In the single-family home market, there were 13,186 sales in 2011, a nine per cent increase over the previous year.

Meanwhile, the condominium market recorded declining sales for nearly half of the year, but favourable pricing and improved economic conditions pushed sales up by double-digit rates for the second half of the year, said CREB.

Condo sales totalled 5,382 in 2011, a four per cent increase over the previous year.

“The demand recovery in the condominium market lagged the single-family market, as price adjustments in both the single-family and condominium markets resulted in more selection for consumers,” said Stante. “For the first time in several years, consumers had additional selection of single-family homes at a lower price range, which directly competed with the condominium market.”

The single-family average price in 2011 reached $466,402, a one per cent increase over the previous year. The average price for condos of $287,172 remained one per cent lower than the previous year.

“Throughout 2011, elevated levels of inventories have limited price growth as consumers benefited from sufficient supply of housing to choose from. However, as these inventories drop to levels more consistent with a balanced market, we can expect some moderate price growth moving forward,” said Stante.

THAT'S OUTRAGEOUS!

The 15 most outrageous home sales of 2011
By Morgan Brennan
Forbes Dec 25, 2011

The U.S. housing market is still in the pits, closing another year marked by falling prices, lackluster sales volumes and a steady stream of foreclosures. For the rich and famous, though, it’s been a year of record-breaking purchases.

We sorted through the biggest, splashiest home sales of the year to bring you a recap of the 15 we deem the most outrageous.

One of the biggest purchases of the year just closed: an US$88-million penthouse condo in New York City’s billionaire-coveted 15 Central Park West. The 6,744-square-foot apartment, which hit the market in November, sold less than six weeks later to Ekaterina Rybolovleva, the 22-year old daughter of Russian billionaire Dmitriy Rybolovlev, reportedly for the full US$88-million asking price.

It is the highest individual transaction in Big Apple history and the second-largest transaction in the U.S. for 2011. Jonathan Miller, chief executive of Miller Samuel, a New York City-based real estate appraisal firm, explained to my colleague Luisa Kroll recently, “This sale is an outlier. It works out to be about $13,000 per square foot, the highest on record, for anything, that has ever occurred.”

The pricey pad belonged to former Citigroup chairman Sandy Weill, who purchased it with his wife in 2007 for US$43.7-million — less than half of what it just sold for. The Weills plan to donate the proceeds to charity and Rybolovleva plans to reside there while attending university in the area. Despite Miller’s insistence that the gargantuan 15 CPW sale is an anomaly, there were two other pricey purchases in New York City this year, both for US$48-million apiece.

California’s real estate market welcomed several huge sales as well. The year’s largest individual transaction was the US$100-million purchase in March of a 25,500-square foot Silicon Valley mansion called Palo Alto Loire Chateau. Russian venture capital billionaire Yuri Milner reportedly plans to use the nine-figure compound as a secondary residence. The Levi Strauss estate, with its humble 2,050-square foot abode, in nearby Atherton sold to an unknown buyer for a hefty US$53-million in September.

The Spelling Manor, a Los Angeles manse formerly known as America’s most expensive home for sale, secured a buyer this summer after nearly three years on the market. The hulking 56,500-square foot Holmby Hills estate was listed for $150 million, and ultimately sold to yet another 22-year-old billionaire heiress, Petra Ecclestone, the daughter of Formula One founder Bernie Ecclestone, for a more reasonable US$85-million. Like Milner, Ecclestone has no plans to reside there full-time, and will split time between the palatial crash pad and one in London.

But while US$85-million may seem like an exorbitant sum to throw down on what essentially will be a pied a terre, David Kramer, the Hilton & Hyland agent who represented Ecclestone for her L.A. purchase, says the wealthy British family consider it a good investment. “If you say to someone who has billions of dollars, ‘Hey I’ll get you 43% off of a landmark home that in a good market really would be a US$100-million or more home, they will say let’s do it.”

Many real estate experts, Kramer and Miller included, chalk up increased interest in the home market among the big-money set to the same thing: perceived bargains. The weak dollar coupled with depreciated home prices (even at the high end) have translated into investment opportunities, particularly for rich foreigners looking to hedge fortunes in brick and mortar assets.

All of the headline-grabbing sales that have transpired this year have led to even more high-profile properties hitting the sale block. A plethora of trophy homes are available like Manhattan’s US$90-million Woolworth Mansion, Guess co-founder Armand Marciano’s US$63-million Beverly Hills compound, a US$60-million private resort in Indian Creek, Fla., and the less expensive but equally noteworthy US$12.5-million former Sinatra estate called Farralone. A US$175-million ranch in Jackson, Wyo. also came to market this year.

“I am seeing unique, special properties that no one ever would have thought would come on the market,” says Kramer. “These are properties that, like a piece of art, can and will never be duplicated. They can be considered part of people’s collections.”

South Florida’s luxury market has welcomed big spenders, too. Miami clocked four transactions priced at roughly US$20-million or higher this year. The most recent, the sale of the Setai South Beach’s palatial penthouse for US$21.5-million, is believed to be the highest price ever paid for a Miami Beach condo unit. The Thai-inspired apartment, which had belonged to Netscape founder Jim Clark, had been listed for $27 million. Another Russian billionaire, Roustam Tariko, coughed up US$25.5-million for a Star Island estate, the highest price paid in Miami since 2006.

“We have had an influx of rich people that have come to the city recently,” says Farid Moussalem, a ONE Sotheby’s International Realty agent who represented the buyer of Sunset Island’s Villa Tranquilla estate. The property was sold by American billionaire George Lindemann for US$19.8-million this summer, about 34% off the initial 2009 asking price of US$30-million. “I don’t think this is over; I think next year we will see more of these kinds of high-end sales,” says Moussalem.

Some ritzy residences didn’t find buyers this year until their asking prices were drastically cut. Oracle’s Larry Ellison, No. 3 on the Forbes 400 list of the richest Americans, picked up Porcupine Creek in Rancho Mirage, Calif., for US$42.9-million, 43% off the initial US$75-million asking price; fertilizer billionaire Alexander Rovt scooped up New York City’s Sloane Mansion an hour before its foreclosure auction for roughly US$33-million, or about 48% off the initial US$64-million ask price. Perhaps the biggest high-end discount sale of the year was Le Reve, a massive Versailles-like compound just north of Atlanta, Ga., that finally sold this summer for US$9.5-million. It had been originally listed at US$45-million.

Also making our roundup were two infamous foreclosures, both repossessed by lender Bank of America. Patricia Kluge’s Albemarle estate in Charlottesville, Va., once listed for US$100-million, was taken by the bank in February for US$15.26-million; and San Francisco’s St. Regis penthouse, once listed for US$70-million, earned the title of most expensive bank-owned property when it was sold back to the bank by former owner-developer Victor MacFarlane in lieu of foreclosure. That penthouse found a buyer just recently for US$28-million.

WIND IT UP!

Luxury home sales spike
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald  December 10, 2011

Calgary's luxury home market has seen a spike in demand this year, with sales in the upper-end approaching the record levels of 2007.

Brendan Hughes, a realtor with Re/Max Real Estate (Central) in Calgary, said sales in the higher-end market are a sign of a good economy in the city. "It's vibrant and it's growing. Jobs are being created. People are moving here."

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, so far this year from January to November there have been 25 MLS condo sales over $1 million compared with 19 for the same period in 2010.

Year-to-date, there have been 406 single-family sales at that price point, up from 326 a year ago.

The record number of luxury home sales in the Calgary market took place in 2007 with 431 single-family sales over $1 million and 30 condo sales in that price bracket.

Sano Stante, president of the Calgary Real Estate Board, said there is a lot of confidence in the local real estate market these days.

Many oilpatch executives are showing confidence because of what they see coming up for the future with projects in the energy sector. "Those are the people that are buying these properties. So there's confidence in that realm," said Stante. "There's a fair bit of inventory out there available in that upper range as well. The people who are buying them now are being selective in the upper-end, in the luxury market. There's a lot of good product to choose from and they're selecting only the best deals. So homes in the luxury range have to be priced right to sell in a reasonable amount of time."

According to CREB, the top sale prices for single-family homes in Calgary this year have been $4.525 million in Rideau Park, $3.995 million in Elbow Park-Glencoe and $3.8 million in Aspen Woods.

Top selling condos this year have been $4.1 million in Eau Claire, $2.935 million in Eau Claire and $2.05 million in Victoria Park.

Hughes said one factor in the demand for upper-end product is executives who have been relocated to Calgary. "They like the high-end condo market," said Hughes. "We're also seeing these young professionals - the investment bankers, the lawyers, - they work really hard . . . they're looking at that high end.

"And then there's that investment side of it too. Some people shudder when you mention a million-dollar condo, but compared to a lot of other markets what you get here for $1 million, $2 million, is a lot more than you're getting in some of the other markets. And people see that."

BULLISH CONSUMERS

Canadian consumers remain bullish on real estate market
October sales highest since beginning of year
By Garry Marr
Financial Post November 16, 2011

The Canadian housing market continues to defy those who have long predicted its collapse.

It was just another set of numbers, but if anything the market seemed to pick up steam with October sales across the country the best they have been since January.

The upward push caused the Canadian Real Estate Association to slightly revise its predictions for 2011. The group now says sales will be up 1.4 per cent from a year ago, instead of 0.9 per cent.

"The continuing strength of home sales activity in the face of ongoing financial volatility speaks volumes about the confidence of Canadians in our housing market," said Gary Morse, president of CREA.

Even going into 2012, CREA doesn't see much changing in the marketplace with interest rates near record lows. It's calling for a relatively minor 0.5 per cent reduction in sales next year.

The industry continues to have plenty to gloat about as annual sales have held steady in the $450,000 range for the past three years. Prices have also shown a steady upward trajectory and are now forecast to reached an average of $362,700 in 2011, which would be a seven per cent jump from the year before. Next year, prices are expected to remain flat - something most people in the real estate industry see as an accomplishment in the present economic environment.

"Home sales activity over the past couple of months suggests buyers are confident that the Canadian economy will remain relatively unscathed by global economic risks, since every home purchase is a homebuyer's vote of confidence in the future," said Gregory Klump, chief economist with CREA, adding there is strong feeling the government's fiscal policy would be coordinated to give housing any support it should need in the event of a pullback.

So far, the industry seems to be getting all the support it needs from a low interest rate environment that has kept people in the market. Variablerate mortgages tied to prime are still available as low as 2.7 per cent while a five-year fixed rate closed mortgage is now being discounted down to 3.19 per cent.

Toronto continued to carry the national market in October with sales up 14.3 per cent from a year ago. The activity in Canada's largest city helped boost overall sales activity, which rose 8.5 per cent from a year earlier. Prices across the country continue to be moderate with the 5.5 per cent year-over-year increase the smallest it has been since January.

The consensus among economists is that the housing industry might not have much more to give in terms of price increases or sales but they also are not predicting a massive decline either. "The fact that prices are overvalued today does not necessarily mean they will crash tomorrow," said Benjamin Tal, deputy economist with CIBC World Markets.

He thinks a "violent market meltdown" would need a catalyst like the a sub-prime crisis or a jump in interest rates like the industry saw in 1991. "We do believe the housing market in Canada will stagnate in the coming year or two," Tal said.

That housing market has become a key component of the country with a report from TD Economics saying the construction industry was second fastest growing industry in the country and accounts for 10 per cent of GDP. "While the industry's performance over the last decade has been astonishing, some of the recent strength is likely to taper off in the coming years," the bank said.

Photo By: WCampos3

126% DECADE OVER DECADE

Calgary house prices increased 126% over past decade
Projected 2011 average cost: about $402K
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald November 8, 2011

Strong in-migration, population growth and a vibrant oil and gas sector have pushed Calgary average house prices to an increase of 126 per cent in the past decade, says a new report published Monday by Re/Max.

The report said renovation spending and new construction have been "considerable" secondary factors propping up values throughout the city between 2000-2010.

The report also said the total value of residential building permits in the city during that period was the third highest in the country at $23.1 billion behind Toronto ($77.3 billion) and Vancouver ($35 billion).

"A few reasons I believe Calgary has seen such growth in the last 10 years is simple due to our strong economy from natural resources which has been a driving force in migration into Calgary for jobs," says Tanya Eklund, a realtor with Re/Max Real Estate Central.

"This has resulted in growing our population to well over one million, low unemployment rates, a strong GDP and the demand for housing.

"We are highly affected by inventory levels in real estate. When inventory is low and the demand is there, prices increase. . . . We had a very balanced market in this time period and saw huge economic growth which proved significant gains in the housing sector."

In Calgary, the average price rose from $176,305 in 2000 to $398,764 by year-end 2010.

The Re/Max Housing Evolution report said the average residential price in Canada rose 106 per cent in the past decade, led by Regina, which saw a hike of 173 per cent.

Regina was followed by Edmonton (165 per cent), Saskatoon (163 per cent), Winnipeg (158 per cent), Kelowna (156 per cent), St. John's (149 per cent), Greater Vancouver (128 per cent) and Calgary.

The report said investment in Canada's housing stock is at an all-time high in the 16 Canadian residential real estate markets surveyed.

"Revitalization, renovation and new construction have been largely underestimated in terms of overall impact on rising average price," said Elton Ash, regional executive vice-president of Re/Max of Western Canada. "Yet, outside of supply and demand, these have been among the foremost variables influencing real estate values.

"Population growth is a central to housing evolution, supporting steady household formation, which in turn will boost revitalization, new construction and investment in Canada's housing stock for years to come. Ultimately, a rising population bolsters the health of the real estate sector and fuels the trends that lead to continued average price growth on all fronts."

A Housing Market Outlook by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said many factors that support resale housing demand in Calgary have become or remained favourable this year, including growth in full-time employment, low mortgage rates and improved net migration.

"However, competing factors such as uncertainty in the global economy has kept some prospective buyers on the fence, and will continue to temper any large increases in sales," said the CMHC.

The average price for a residential property in the Calgary census metropolitan area this year is forecast to be $402,000, up 0.8 per cent from 2010.

As the supply in the resale market moves lower and conditions become more balanced, stronger price growth is expected next year, said the CMHC. In 2012, the average price is anticipated to rise 2.2 per cent to $411,000.

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APARTMENT SALES ENLARGEMENT

Mondo condo sales for 2011
Lisa Van De Ven,
National Post, Sept. 10, 2011

If you ask Ben Myers, 25,000 is the magic number. There may still be a few months left of 2011, but Mr. Myers, executive vicepresident and editor at real estate research firm Urbanation, already has his forecast for the year. He expects there will be 25,000 new condominium sales by the end of 2011. If he's right, it'll be a new record, surpassing 2007's previous record of about 22,500 new condo sales.

"We're certainly on pace to have the most condominium sales in any one year in 2011," Mr. Myers says. And with the Toronto new-condo market coming off a busier-than-normal summer and a record-setting second quarter, he's not surprised.

Urbanation recently released its second-quarter results. From April to June, Mr. Myers says, 9,455 new condo units were sold in the Toronto CMA. That's a record in itself; the previous best quarter was 2007's second quarter, when 6,997 units were sold. That wasn't the only Q2 number to be beat, though. The quarter also set records for the number of active projects, the number of active units, the number of new condominium launches and the number of projects and units under construction.

"There was a huge number of new projects coming on line," Mr. Myers says. "And surprisingly, even with all of this extra supply, they had the highest absorption rate ever of new product. Even in the face of all this additional supply, they sold better than any other new release that we had in a quarter."

But Mr. Myers is quick to dispel any talk that the Toronto market might be in the middle of a real estate bubble. Prices, he says, have remained "pretty consistent" over the past five years, with 7% to 9% increases in the new condo market from year to year.

"A bubble is characterized by rapid increases in prices, and we haven't seen that," he says. "That's the type of thing you obviously saw in the United States and you even saw in Calgary a few years ago, where you saw 20% and 25% increases year over year, and in our market in the '80s where we saw prices double in three years."

Developers, he says, have been doing their homework and "setting fairly moderate pricing." They're also, it seems, paying less attention to the sales seasons of the past. Whereas spring and fall are still the prime selling times, more developers decided to release their projects in the summer this year. Since the market is being driven by investors more than ever, Mr. Myers says, there was less need to wait out the summer season, when end users are typically on holiday and less focused on condo buying.

According to the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD, using data provided by RealNet Canada), 1,490 new condo units were sold throughout the Greater Toronto Area in July, up almost 20% from last year. "Forget the old conventions of a spring and fall market," says Stephen Dupuis, BILD's president and CEO. "The market's that much bigger now - it's active all the time."

Photo By: GalleryLoftsCA

GOTTEN GAINS

Condo market gains strength
By Kathy McCormick, Calgary Herald
August 6, 2011

The story of the resale condo market in Calgary is positive, albeit fragile, say some of the city's realtors.

For the first time since April 2010, sales of resale condos have gone up year-overyear - and in terms of new condos, several inner-city highrise projects that were in limbo have been brought back to the market.

For April 1 to the end of June, sales of resale condos reached 1,617 within the city.

The Calgary Real Estate Board's Zone C - which roughly corresponds to the city's southwest and includes the Beltline - posted the most sales from April 1 to the end of June at 881.

Not surprisingly, the busiest communities during that period were in the innercity neighbourhoods of Connaught with 95 sales and Victoria Park with 50 sales.

"Condo sales bounced back this month (in July) and we now have less than four months of supply on the market," says Sano Stante, president of the Calgary Real Estate Board. "Stronger condo sales, combined with a decline in inventory, will lend more balance to this market in the months to come."

The key, though, is prices, says Marlene Swinton of Real Estate Professionals Inc.

"Buyers today are extremely nervous and a lot of them come in well below list price," she says.

"A lot of sellers, on the other hand, haven't recognized that prices have changed. They don't want to hear that the marvellous prices they heard they could get for their place once isn't there anymore."

That resonates with Chris Zaharko of Royal LePage Foothills. "My gut feeling is that people are only in the position to buy and pursue it if they think it's the absolute bottom line."

Prices during the second quarter of the year averaged anywhere from $77,600 for five sales in Forest Lawn in the board's Zone B - which roughly corresponds to northeast Calgary - to $850,000 for one sale in Bayview in Zone C.

But overall, affordability was key. A total of 30 communities within Calgary had average sale prices under $200,000 - with more buyers purchasing condos under that price range this year compared to last year during the same period.

"Buyers in this market expect value and many are taking advantage of some affordable buys in both the single-family and condo markets," says Stante.

He expects this fall to be more active. "I think as the inventory is absorbed, more particularly in condos, the shift will be to sellers and there will be slight increases in price."

Swinton, who has a condo apartment building of 11 units among her portfolio of properties for sale, says she had three calls for showings for that development on the last weekend of Stampede - traditionally a very slow time for real estate transactions.

"It was priced well and a good product, but still, that is investors looking to buy, so that's positive."

Zaharko, too, points to the new condo market where several highrise developers are starting marketing or re-starting projects that had been on hold during the downturn in the inner city.

"The big developers are coming back to the table," he says.

"They've got their pulse on the market, and see what the oil and gas industry will be doing in the next couple of years. The timing is right to start now."

Typically, a highrise project can take two years or more for construction to be complete.

Zone C, which is mostly southwest Calgary and the inner-city neighbourhoods in the Beltline, was not surprisingly the most active for resale condos in the second quarter.

It also had the highest average price and highest median price at $317,301 and $285,000 respectively. The median price is the mid-point of all sales.

Overall, most condos took an average of 54.5 days to sell - but if it's the right product at the right price in the right location, it will sell quickly.

A $835,000 condo in Eagle Ridge in Zone C, for example, sold in just nine days during that period; another condo in Citadel in Zone A went for $440,000 in just four days.

THE SHORTEST MONTH SHOWS GROWTH

Calgary MLS sales rise in February
Prices up 3% from last year
By Mario Toneguzzi,
Calgary Herald March 15, 2011

CALGARY - Overall residential MLS sales and average prices rose in Calgary in February, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

In data released Tuesday, CREA said Calgary sales, which included all residential properties, were 1,917 for the month, up by 0.2 per cent from a year ago.

The average MLS sale price was $400,879, an increase of three per cent from February 2010.

Nationally, CREA said sales dropped by 5.9 per cent to 34,093 transactions but the average sale price rose 8.8 per cent year-over-year to $365,192.

"The average price has been skewed higher nationally and in British Columbia recently by a record number of multi-million dollar sales in a couple of areas in Greater Vancouver," said Gregory Klump, CREA's Chief Economist.

"When you take Vancouver out of the equation, the year-over-year increase in the national average price drops to 3.4 per cent. While that's still stronger than in the past six months or so, national average price gains may recede after tighter mortgage regulations take effect in March."

REBOUND REAL ESTATE

Get ready for rebound
Realtors say market in 2010 under-performed
By Marty Hope, Calgary Herald
February 5, 2011

"Under-performed" was the phrase used by both the outgoing and incoming presidents of the Calgary Real Estate Board to describe last year's resale market.

But both current president Sano Stante and his 2010 counterpart, Diane Scott, are calling for a revival in sales activity this year based on stronger job and migration growth.

Single-family housing underwent some interesting trends last year, says CREB:

- Annual sales in Calgary's four quadrants totalled 12,094, down from 14,438 in 2009. "Undoubtedly, housing markets in Alberta and Calgary under-performed in 2010 as sales did not materialize as forecast," Scott said in her final news release last year.

- The board's Zone A, which roughly corresponds to northwest Calgary, was the busiest of the four zones in 2010 at 4,300 sales, down from 5,270 the previous year.

- The two most active communities in the city -- for the second year in a row -- were Tuscany and Coventry Hills in the northwest.

In 2010, Tuscany had 359 sales, with Coventry Hills 278. A year earlier, Coventry Hills had 426 sales, while Tuscany had 422.

- The most affordable community in Calgary last year was Falconridge in the northeast, where the average price for homes was $238,586. A year earlier, West Dover, in the southeast held that honour with an average of $221,125.

- At the other end of the price scale, BelAire had the highest average price at $1.79 million last year -- replacing Roxboro, which topped the list in 2009 at $1.8 million.

- In 2010, there were 13 communities across the city in which the average price was more than $1 million. In 2009, there were nine.

Calgary resale homes
2010 2009

Sales P rice Sales Price

- Zone A (N. W.) 4,300 $468,969 5,270 $449,057

- ZoneB(N. E.) 1,912 $296,231 2,184 $297,428

- Zone C (S. W.) 3,480 $570,649 4,163 $530,305

- ZoneD(S. E.) 2,402 $419,819 2,821 $412,072

HOT LIKE FIRE!

Canada's on fire
Jacqueline Thorpe
Financial Post · Thursday, Jan. 13, 2011

Three weeks into 2011, Canada has been swept up in a wave of mergers, foreign money and international attention as commodity prices soar, the loonie jumps above US$1.00 and the economic recovery gathers steam. Check out the latest deals putting Canada in the sights of the global economy:

Zellers sells 220 stores to Target

U.S. retailing giant Target Corp. has secured the land needed to make its much-anticipated arrival in Canada. Target reached a deal with Hudson’s Bay Co. that will see it pay $1.825-billion to acquire the leasehold interests in as many as 220 sites now operated by Zellers Inc.

Lundin Mining, Inmet agree to $9B merger

Canadian miners Inmet Mining Corp. and Lundin Mining Corp. have agreed to a blockbuster $9-billion merger to create a leading global copper company that appears poised for even more growth in the future.

Cliffs Natural Resources to buy Consolidated Thompson for $4.9B

In the biggest iron-ore deal in Canadian history, U.S. miner Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. is buying Montreal-based Consolidated Thompson Iron Mines Ltd. for $4.9-billion as it pushes for more scale and enlarges its customer base beyond North America

U.S. bond giant enters retail fray in Canada

The world's largest bond fund is about to make an erratic year on debt markets even more interesting for Canadian retail investors. U.S. investment behemoth PIMCO, which has about US$1.3-trillion under management, plans to introduce to the retail market a suite of funds focusing on Canadian fixed income. With the volatility in bond markets expected to continue throughout the next several months, exposure to credit these days carries a heightened risk component. And returns promise to be modest.

Canada gets 'emerging' label from Merrill Lynch

There is a dichotomy to the analysis of world economies these days. On one hand, there are the struggling developed economies of the West, on the other, ascendant emerging markets, now including Canada. When examining Canada's growth prospects, the country might better be lumped in with emerging market economies rather than its traditional economic peers, said Sheryl King, head of Canada economics and strategy at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.

Maple Sales May Double in 2011 on Dollar Rally

Sales of Canadian-dollar debt by foreign companies may double this year as borrowers diversify funding sources and take advantage of the nation’s strengthening currency.

PIECING TOGETHER THE MARKET

Home prices expected to rise further: Royal LePage
By Derek Abma
Financial Post January 6, 2011
OTTAWA — Home prices will continue a "moderate and steady climb" this year, helped along by an improving economy and low interest rates, according to a report released Thursday.

Real estate services firm Royal LePage said the average price of a home in Canada will rise three per cent to $348,600, even as the number of transactions falls two per cent.

It said that after a "lacklustre" third quarter in 2010, home prices were up between 3.9 and 4.6 per cent, year over year, in the year's fourth quarter. This marked a return to growth more typical of trends since the end of the recession, Royal LePage said.

The report said, similar to last year, sales will be more robust in the first half of the year as homebuyers take advantage of low interest rates that could be on the rise in the near future.

"Canadians realize that interest rates are unsustainably low and that homes will become effectively more expensive when mortgage rates return to normal levels," said Phil Soper, CEO of Royal LePage Real Estate Services. "We will likely see more price appreciation early in 2011 as some buyers complete transactions in advance of anticipated higher borrowing costs."

The report said the strongest price gains will happen in mid-sized cities where homes are priced below the national average. It noted places like Winnipeg, St. John's and Fredericton, where single two-storey homes are still widely available for less than $300,000.

Alberta's housing market is also expected to be strong in the coming year, as the energy sector helps fuel a strong hiring climate.

However, cities such as Calgary and Edmonton were among the few major centres showing price declines, year to year, as of the end of last year. Edmonton now has lower-priced homes than Saskatoon, according to the Royal LePage report. The average price for a two-storey home in Edmonton was $334,286 in last year's fourth quarter, down 2.3 per cent from a year earlier. It was $359,250 in Saskatoon, up 6.1 per cent.

In Vancouver, the average price of a two-storey home is now more than $1 million, Royal LePage said, up 9.8 per cent over the last year. More moderate price gains in the range of four per cent are expected for Vancouver this year.

Average prices for two-story homes as of Q4 2010 (change from year earlier):

Halifax $291,000 (9.7%)

St. John's $327,627 (9.6%)

Montreal $375,222 (8.7%)

Ottawa $354,083 (6.7%)

Toronto $594,231 (5.6%)

Winnipeg $296,750 (6.4%)

Regina $282,500 (9.1%)

Saskatoon $359,250 (6.1%)

Calgary $404,622 (-5.3%)

Edmonton $334,286 (-2.3%)

Vancouver $1 million (9.8%)

Victoria $480,000 (6.9%)

Source: Royal LePage

© The Financial Post

Photo By: Area Bridges

LOOKING AHEAD TO SPRING 2011

Housing set to find even keel in spring

STEVE LADURANTAYE — REAL ESTATE REPORTER
From Tuesday's Globe and Mail
Published Monday, Nov. 15, 2010

Record low interest rates and a lack of houses on the market have rekindled demand for Canadian real estate, helping to pull the industry out of its sales slump and setting the stage for the most balanced spring market in years.

The Canadian Real Estate Association said Monday that although prices were flat in October and sales slid more than 20 per cent compared with a year earlier, the market posted its third straight month of increased sales.

In a sign of stabilization after two years of wild fluctuations, CREA said October sales were halfway between the lows of December, 2008, and the record high of December, 2009.

Economists said October’s data likely means the market bottomed out in July; while prices won’t rocket to previous highs any time soon, it’s unlikely they have much farther to fall.

“It seems to me the Canadian housing market has been either feast or famine,” said BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter. “But now buyers are facing low rates on one hand, and daily volleys about how bad the market is on the other. That should keep things from getting overly hot, and gives me reason to believe we could have a balanced market in the year ahead.”

After slowing in the recession of 2008, sales activity reached a fevered peak in December, 2009, as buyers rushed back into the market.

Average resale prices peaked at an all-time high $346,881 last May, causing concern that cheap money was driving prices to unsustainable levels. The average resale price in October was $337,842, CREA said.

The market came to an abrupt halt last July, with major regions such as Vancouver and Calgary posting sales drops of nearly 45 per cent and prices pulling back from May’s high. Several factors were cited for the decline: The federal government introduced rules that made it more difficult to qualify for a mortgage, and Ontario and Quebec introduced harmonized sales taxes that made the services associated with buying a home more expensive.

Would-be buyers also faced a barrage of warnings from organizations such as the Bank of Canada, the OECD and International Monetary Fund, all of which have cautioned that as interest rates rise, many Canadians might not be able to make their mortgage payments.

But mortgage rates have actually dropped in the past three months and now sit at all-time lows. A survey by the Canadian Association of Mortgage Professionals released last week showed that Canadians are confident they could shoulder higher mortgage payments without too much difficulty, with 84 per cent saying a $300 monthly increase was no problem.

“There are many reasons to now be optimistic,” said TD Bank senior economist Pascal Gauthier, who called for prices to fall 10 per cent from peak to trough but now expects to issue a more upbeat forecast later this week. “I think there are now limits to both the upside and the downside – things may have firmed up quicker than we expected.”

With the number of houses listed for sale sharply lower than in July, prices are expected to stay firm as buyers compete the few homes available. The months of inventory – the amount of time it would take to sell everything that is for sale, at the current rate of sales – sat at 6.2 months in October, down a full month compared with the July figure.

That doesn’t mean prices are likely to catch fire again in the spring, when activity traditionally accelerates, but it should help keep prices from dropping as buyers and sellers hit the market in equal numbers.

“Affordability drives sales and record low mortgage rates are driving affordability,” said Phil Soper, the chief executive officer of Brookfield Real Estate Services. “I think next year should look a lot like the recent market – with relatively flat prices and fewer overall transactions.”

Photo By: Clara Hinton