SALE PRICE JUMP

Calgary repeat home sale prices rise 7.1%
Second biggest jump in Canada behind Vancouver’s 7.5%
By Mario Toneguzzi 
Calgary Herald February 12, 2014

CALGARY - Calgary had the second best year-over-year growth rate in prices for repeat home sales in January, according to the latest Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index released Wednesday.

It said Calgary’s annual increase was 7.1 per cent which was behind only Vancouver’s 7.5 per cent.

The national composite, of 11 major centres surveyed, rose by 4.5 per cent.

The index is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation.

Toronto saw an annual increase of 5.8 per cent.

Sonny Scarfone, economic analyst with TD Economics, said the index surprised on the upside with a larger gain in momentum than expected across the country.

“Home price gains are still exceeding income growth by a considerable margin, especially in larger real estate markets like Toronto and Vancouver. A low supply of new listings is an important contributor to the upward pressure on prices,” said Scarfone.

“However, as U.S. and Canadian economic growth accelerates and the Federal Reserve continues to taper its quantitative easing program, North American bond yields are likely to rise over time and this will be reflected in mortgage rates. As a consequence, the current stronger-than-expected prices are likely to soften over the medium term.”

The index nationally rose 0.4 per cent from December to an all-time high. It was the largest monthly rise in five months.

The gain from a year earlier exceeded the cross-country average in four of the 11 markets: Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto and Hamilton (5.1 per cent). It was close to the average in Edmonton (4.4 per cent) and Winnipeg (3.9 per cent). It was minimal in Montreal (0.8 per cent) and Quebec City (0.6 per cent). Prices were down from a year earlier in Victoria (5.7 per cent), Halifax (2.9 per cent) and Ottawa-Gatineau (0.6 per cent). The 12-month decline was a first for Ottawa-Gatineau, the 11th straight for Victoria and the fourth in six months for Halifax, said the report.

On a monthly basis, price increases were led by Vancouver (1.1 per cent), Toronto (0.5 per cent) and Quebec City (0.5 per cent) led the composite index. Calgary equalled it. Hamilton prices were up 0.3 per cent, Winnipeg and Montreal prices 0.2 per cent. Edmonton was flat on the month. Prices fell 0.3 per cent in Victoria, 1.1 per cent in Ottawa-Gatineau and 1.7 per cent in Halifax. The January rises in Montreal and Quebec City interrupted runs of five consecutive monthly declines. For Ottawa-Gatineau it was the fifth straight monthly decline, for Victoria the fourth and for Halifax the second. For Vancouver it was a ninth straight monthly rise, for the composite index the 10th in 11 months, said the report.

“There are signs that national house price inflation is close to peaking. The earlier strength in existing home sales, triggered by fears of higher mortgage rates, has begun to fade,” said David Madani, economist with Capital Economics. “January’s preliminary data reported by the regional real estate boards indicate that national home sales declined for a fourth consecutive month.

“The drop back in the months’ supply of inventory is already consistent with annual house price growth rate remaining around 4.0 per cent. If we are correct about home sales drifting lower this year, it will once again start to put downward pressure on house price inflation.”

UP OVER 18%

Calgary helps fuel strong MLS sales in Canada

National transactions up more than 18% Y/Y

BY MARIO TONEGUZZI

CALGARY HERALD OCTOBER 15, 2013

CALGARY — Led by gains in Calgary, Edmonton, Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, Canada’s housing market experienced soaring MLS sales in September compared with a year ago.

The Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday that national sales of 38,147 during the month were up 18.2 per cent from September 2012.

That is roughly on par with the 10-year average in September. The 18.2 per cent increase compared to year-ago levels reflects weakened activity at that time, said CREA.

In Calgary, sales rose by 20.5 per cent to 2,475 transactions.

“Currently it is still a strong sellers’ market wherein we are seeing properties in prime locations come on the market and within a day being sold unconditionally for above listed price when priced accordingly,” said Grace Yan, a realtor with RE/MAX Real Estate (Central) in Calgary.

“We are still experiencing vast amounts of relocations from all parts of the world as Calgary’s oil and gas economy remains strong. We are expecting the rest of the year to remain a strong, healthy resale market due to the limitation of suburban developments and the long periods of time to obtain building permits for new builds along with limited public transportation in suburban areas.”

In September, sales year-over-year sales increases were 64.3 per cent in Vancouver (2,524 sales), 26.1 per cent in Toronto (7,411), and 24.8 per cent in Edmonton (1,712).

“Year-over-year increases in the sales over the past couple of months highlights how activity softened across much of the country following the introduction of tighter mortgage rules last summer,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist.

“While the momentum for sales activity began improving a few months ago, it may be losing steam after having only just climbed back in line with an average of the past 10 years. Even so, one can see large year-on-year changes when comparing activity to a month like September 2012, when sales dropped to the lowest level for that month in more than a decade.”

CREA also said Calgary had the highest year-over-year increase in the MLS Home Price Index at 7.28 per cent. The aggregate for the 11 centres surveyed across Canada was 3.13 per cent. The index looks at benchmark properties in those centres.

Calgary average MLS sale price rose just slightly under the national average in September. It was up 8.2 per cent year-over-year to $435,934. Across Canada, the national average sale price was up 8.8 per cent to $385,906.

CREA said MLS sales in Alberta increased by 20.8 per cent in September to 5,694 while the average sale price was up 7.4 per cent to $381,308.

Diana Petramala, economist with TD Economics, said no two major markets in the country are the same.

“Momentum may prove more lasting in markets with fewer excesses, like Calgary and Edmonton where homes appear fairly valued and sales are being supported by decent labour markets and population growth,” she said.

Robert Kavcic, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets, said sellers in Calgary still have a slight upper hand.

Photos By: Nacoki

LIVIN' RIGHT

Toronto fourth most livable city in world: Economist

Vancouver, Toronto and Calgary keep their high rankings on The Economist's list.

By: The Star Staff

Torornto Star August 28, 2013

Three of the top 10 most livable cities in the world are Canadian.

Vancouver, Toronto and Calgary are third, fourth and fifth, respectively, on the list compiled annually by the Intelligence Unit of the business and political weekly magazine The Economist. That’s also where they stood last year.

Both Toronto and Vancouver won perfect 100-point scores for stability, healthcare and education. The 100-point score for infrastructure The Economist gave Melbourne and Vienna propelled them to first and second place on the list.

Melbourne has been the top city on the livability list since 2011, when it squeezed out Vancouver. Toronto and Calgary have traditionally been in the top five as well.

The Economist bases its ratings of 140 cities on 30 factors across five categories: stability, healthcare, culture and environment, education and infrastructure.

Seven of the top 10 cities are in Canada and Australia, which the Intelligence Unit points out reflects them being mid-sized cities in wealthier countries with relatively low population density and good healthcare and education.

The other cities on the top 10 list, from fifth through ninth, are Adelaide, Sydney, Helsinki and Perth.

Half of the bottom 10 cities are in Africa: Douala, Cameroon; Tripoli, Libya; Algiers, Algeria; Harare, Zimbabwe and Lagos, Nigeria.

Syria’s capital of Damascus ranks dead last because of the civil war tearing apart the country. Damascus also registered the biggest decline in livability over the last five years, by more than 20 per cent.

The livability list also highlights the cities with the most improved scores over the last five years. Bogota, Colombia, improving the most: by 7.9 per cent since 2008, because of an end to violence created by the drug trade and guerrilla activity.

Top ten cities (overall score)

Melbourne, Australia 97.5

Vienna, Austria 97.4

Vancouver, Canada 97.3

Toronto, Canada 97.2

Calgary, Canada 96.6

Adelaide, Australia 96.6

Sydney, Australia 96.1

Helsinki, Finland 96.0

Perth, Australia 95.9

Auckland, New Zealand 95.7

Photo by: stephenk1977

BALLOONING SALES

Calgary and Vancouver lead Canadian housing market boom
August MLS sales balloon

By Mario Toneguzzi 

Calgary Herald September 16, 2013

CALGARY — Strong sales in Calgary and Vancouver led to a Canadian housing market boom in August as MLS transactions across the country were up 11.1 per cent compared with a year ago, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

In releasing its national data on Monday, CREA said sales in Vancouver were up 53.1 per cent from last year to 2,557 while Calgary transactions rose by 28.8 per cent to 2,830.
In Canada, total MLS sales in August were 40,350.

“The year 2013 has been a very strong year for the Calgary real estate market,” said Crystal Tost, a realtor with RE/MAX Realty Professionals in Calgary. “Earlier in the year we saw the market pick up as we transitioned into a sellers’ market as a direct result of low inventory levels. The market maintained strong with low inventory right through to spring. The summer months are traditionally a bit slower than spring months, but not for 2013. The market continued on with record sales without rest as inventory levels continued a downward motion into summer months.

“There is no doubt that the flood has greatly affected the housing market in Calgary not just for sales. Workers that have flocked to the city to aid in Calgary’s rebuilding and displaced people looking for temporary housing have exhausted the inventory in the rental market and in turn we are seeing rising rental prices. The raised rental market is making it sense for some first-time buyers to enter into the market. Bank interest rates are also on the rise. We are seeing many buyers out there with great interest rate holds nearing expiration so some of those buyers will be on a time crunch to save some money in interest.”

In August, Calgary had the highest growth year-over-year in the MLS Home Price Index, which tracks typical sales in nine major Canadian centres. Calgary prices rose by 7.39 per cent compared to the national aggregate of 2.92 per cent.

As for average prices, Calgary was once again a leader with an 8.1 per cent annual hike to $432,576, while Canada saw an 8.1 per cent hike as well to $378,369.

Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist with the Calgary Real Estate Board, said the past two months have seen sales activity in the city shoot up higher than long-term trends.

“Both in July and August, those numbers were a little stronger. Part of that I think is due to the fact of the floods (in June),” said Lurie. “Because of that if you look at June we were running really in line with long-term trends — just above it. And then floods hit and in July and August we saw that activity increase. And some of that is from that demand being pulled forward.”
But other factors have also come into play in the local residential real estate market, she said, with stronger than expected migration this year.

“We still continue to have employment growth. The overall economic situation has done fairly well,” said Lurie. “That’s all the backdrop behind it as well. And wages have been increasing.”

There’s also the added possibility of increasing mortgage rates causing people to get into home ownership sooner.

In August, Alberta saw MLS sales increase by 17.8 per cent from last year to 6,124 while the average price rose by 7.1 per cent to $381,642.

On Monday, CREA also released its forecast for the rest of this year and 2014. It said Alberta MLS sales would grow by 6.2 per cent this year, the best in the country, to 64,100 and by another 2.3 per cent in 2014 to 65,600.

In Canada, sales are expected to drop by 1.0 per cent this year to 449,900 but expand by 3.5 per cent next year to $465,600.

The average sale price in Alberta is expected to rise by 4.8 per cent this year to $380,500, the second best growth rate in the country behind Newfoundland’s 6.1 per cent. Alberta is then forecast to lead the country in 2014 with 3.4 per cent growth to $393,300.

Canadian average sale prices are forecast to grow by 3.6 per cent this year to $376,300 and by another 1.7 per cent in 2014 to $382,800.

“Sales activity dropped sharply around this time last year in the wake of tightened mortgage rules and has improved since then, so a sizable year-over-year increase this August was expected,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist, about the national August sales data.

“Buyers who put off purchase decisions or who were otherwise sidelined by tighter mortgage rules and lending guidelines implemented last year were anticipated to return to the housing market. That said, the upward trend and levels for activity in recent months has been steeper than expected, but that may not last.


“Recent increases to fixed mortgage rates caused sales to be pulled forward as buyers with pre-approved financing at lower rates jumped into the market sooner than they might have otherwise. That pool of homebuyers has largely evaporated so demand may soften over the fourth quarter. The outsized year-over-year gains may persist, however, due to weak sales toward the end of last year.”

AGE AND CONDO DEMAND

Condo demand stronger among older Canadians: BMO
Business News Network May 30, 2013

Think the condo market is a young man's game? Think again, a report from BMO says the demand among potential homebuyers for purchasing a condo is greater for Canadians over the age of 50.

Among prospective buyers over the age 50, about 30 percent said they were willing to buy a condo over the next five years, compared to just 17 percent for Canadians under the age 50, the survey said.

The condo market in Canada's cities is also being divided into the haves and have nots, the survey noted.

In both Toronto and Calgary the appetite for buying a condo is on the rise, while demand is falling in Montreal and Vancouver.

About one-third of prospective buyers surveyed in Toronto said they were planning to buy a condo in the next five years, an increase of 11 points from a survey conducted in the fall.

In Calgary, 33 percent of buyers said they were considering purchasing a condo in that time period, up 8 percent from a previous survey.

But the story in Vancouver and Montreal is the complete opposite, with the percentage of buyers thinking of purchasing a condo falling to 28 percent from 33 percent in Vancouver and down 3 points to 24 percent in Montreal.

"Condos remain an affordable alternative to the pricey detached market in some major cities," said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. "For example, a typical Toronto condo today requires just 22 percent of a median family's income to service; Vancouver condos - while more expensive - are still affordable at 28 percent of income.

The report from BMO comes amid a debate among economists and other investors whether the country's housing market is headed for a U.S.-style crash. While many economists on Bay Street say the country is moving towards a "soft landing," a number of investors say that call is too optimistic.

The condo market in major cities such as Toronto and Vancouver, has attracted significant negative attention.

On Wednesday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in its twice-yearly Economic Outlook warned of a potential for a pullback in housing prices in Canada. The OECD said Canada is one of three countries in the 34-member group where "houses appear overvalued but prices are still rising." The Toronto condominium market is the agency's "number one concern."

While a dramatic collapse in the housing market is unlikely, Jarrey said it can't be ruled out completely.

"Nobody saw the huge decline in the United State coming either five or six years ago – not nobody, but very few – and we could be having something very similar but it's not a very likely outcome," he said.

TOP MARKETS

Calgary and Edmonton displace Toronto and Vancouver as top real estate markets
Limited supply in Calgary pushes rents higher
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald November 6, 2012

CALGARY — Calgary and Edmonton have displaced Toronto and Vancouver as the top-ranked cities for overall real estate prospects, according to the Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2013 report released Tuesday.

The report, by PwC and the Urban Land Institute, said the Canadian real estate market is expected to remain steady with “modestly good” investment and development prospects across most property sectors for 2013, reflecting expectations of solid supply and demand.

Calgary was the top-ranked city in the country followed by Edmonton, Toronto, Vancouver and Ottawa.

In this year’s survey, Calgary ranked first in both investment and development prospects and second in homebuilding prospects.

“Growth characterizes Calgary’s future; it displaces Toronto as the top ranked city for 2013,” said the report. “This has made it challenging to acquire high quality real estate in Calgary, absorption of prime properties has reached record levels, and rents are being pushed due to limited supply.

“This trend will continue in 2013, especially in office and industrial employment space. Construction will increase in the housing and non-residential arenas, but nowhere near pre-crisis levels.”

According to survey participants, Canada’s real estate market will follow along in a seeming state of near-perpetual equilibrium compared with other more volatile regions studied in the report, including most obviously the United States.

“The results of this year’s Emerging Trends report reflects the fact that the Canadian real estate community understands real estate fundamentals and knows how to react to fluctuations in monetary policy and capital markets. Canada’s real estate industry continues to operate well despite uncertainties in domestic and global economies,” said Lori-Ann Beausoleil, PwC Canada’s Real Estate Leader.

The report said Calgary’s expanding economy is requiring a larger and more highly-skilled workforce. Employment forecasts indicate growth of 2.8 per cent next year and 2.9 per cent in 2014.

“This growth, driven mostly by the oil and gas industry, has made it challenging to acquire high-quality real estate in this market,” said the report.

“Absorption of prime properties has reached record levels and rents are continuing to be pushed due to limited supply.”

The report said potential approvals of controversial pipeline projects to the United States and into British Columbia would boost real estate construction projects further in Calgary.

The strength of Calgary’s real estate market is evident in both the residential and non-residential sectors.

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, year-to-date as of Monday, total MLS sales in the city of 18,905 are up 15.56 per cent from the same period last year.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. is forecasting total housing starts in the Calgary census metropolitan area to finish at 12,400 units this year, an increase of more than 33 per cent from 2011 and the highest level since 2007.

RealNet Canada recently said Calgary has experienced the second best ever year for commercial real estate transactions for the first nine months of the year with $3.394 billion in sales so far this year.

And a recent report by Jones Lang LaSalle suggested a downtown office development boom in Calgary could be on the horizon.

SUNNY DAYS

Calgary housing market showed strong sales activity in July
Sales and average price gain top national averages
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald August 15, 2012

Calgary residential MLS sales in July experienced one of the highest year-over-year rates of growth in the country, according to data released Wednesday by the Canadian Real Estate Association.

Also on Wednesday, the Calgary Real Estate Board released its 2012 housing market forecast update saying the city has outperformed expectations this year after the first seven months.

The national real estate association said sales in Calgary of 2,502 transactions were up 26.7 per cent from July 2011. In contrast, MLS sales across Canada rose by only 3.3 per cent to 40,863 units.

And while the national average sale price dipped by 2.0 per cent to $353,147, in Calgary the average rose by 3.0 per cent to $409,670.

In July, new listings in Calgary dropped by 5.1 per cent to 3,573 while at the national level they rose by 1.4 per cent to 74,685.

CREB’s report said the Calgary area is still short of the peak pricing of 2007 and sales are returning to typical levels of activity.

CREB president Bob Jablonski said tight conditions in the single-family market have boosted sales in the condominium market and surrounding towns. And he said more new home starts have occurred because of the lower than expected resale inventory.

“Expectations are relatively bullish in the city despite overhanging global uncertainty. However, concerns in the oil sector and continued weakness in the natural gas sector are issues that will keep consumers wary. While consumers are aware of the economic risk when it comes to housing, many are thinking about job security and long-term potential,” said the CREB report.

“Based on activity this year, consumers are comfortable purchasing in a city where the long-term outlook is prosperous and the housing industry has yet to fully recover. While the pace of growth will likely cool over the second half of the year, the resale housing market will stay on the path to recovery into 2013.”

The local board is forecasting single-family home sales this year to jump to 14,800 transactions from 13,120 in 2011 and the annual benchmark price to move to $410,123 from $398,225 last year.

It is also forecasting condo sales to increase to 5,675 this year from 5,377 in 2011 and the annual benchmark price to jump to $240,585 from $239,676.

Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB’s chief economist, said Calgary is sensitive to significant changes in the oil sector and that has a “domino effect on employment, migration, consumer confidence and ultimately the housing sector.”

“Our fundamentals on the economic side are very strong . . . We have very strong GDP growth. We’ve got investments into our province and our city and this is creating full-time employment growth. Significant full-time employment growth. All of these factors are contributing to that growth in the housing market.”

At the national level, some first-time home buyers may have difficulty qualifying for mortgage financing due to shortened amortization periods included in recent changes to mortgage regulations, said Gregory Klump, chief economist for CREA.

“As the linchpin of the housing market, lower first-time buying activity will have knock-on effects over the rest of the market. It will likely take more time for move-up buyers to sell their current home,” he said.

The MLS Home Price Index, which tracks home price trends in five of Canada’s most active markets, rose 4.5 per cent year-over-year in July. The largest increase was in Greater Toronto at 7.1 per cent followed by Calgary (6.0 per cent), the Fraser Valley (2.5 per cent), Montreal (2.1 per cent) and Greater Vancouver (0.6 per cent).

CREA says these five markets comprise about 45 per cent of all home sales activity in Canada.

In Alberta in July, MLS sales of 5,819 were up 16.5 per cent from a year ago, the average sale price rose by 2.7 per cent to $363,924 and new listings fell by 3.3 per cent to 9,315.

Francis Fong, economist with TD Economics, said the recent slowdown in housing activity at the national level is a reflection of a Canadian household that is increasingly wary of taking on more debt.

“Job growth has effectively stalled over the last few months, owing to an uncertain outlook for the global economy,” said Fong. “Meanwhile, new mortgage lending rules are making it more difficult for Canadians to access credit, despite interest rates still at historic lows.

“TD Economics has been calling for a modest correction in housing activity to the tune of 10-15 per cent for some time. (Wednesday’s) report provides some evidence that that correction is now beginning to take place.”

Photo By: Kevin Mullett

THE UPSWING

Resale market on the upswing
By Josh Skapin
Calgary Herald August 3, 2012

The upswing on resale activity of single-family homes in Calgary continued in July.

Last month, 1,386 single-family homes changed hands in Calgary, a 21.37 per cent increase on the 1,142 units sold in July of last year, says the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB).

Changes to Canada’s mortgage rules earlier this year fuelled talks of a national housing correction, which has yet to be seen in Calgary says CREB chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. These changes include shortening the maximum amortization period from 30 years to 25 years.

“While the two largest cities (Vancouver and Toronto) have started to witness declines in home sales activity, Calgary continues to record improving sales and prices,” says Lurie in a news release.

To date, the city’s single-family resale activity is up 18.9 per cent over the same span in 2012.

That pace is fuelled by the region’s economic growth, adds Lurie.

“Last year, Alberta led the country in economic growth and, with Calgary being the energy capital of the country, the city has benefited from growth in full-time employment, migration and overall improved confidence.”

The average price of single-family homes sold in Calgary’s resale market is also on the rise.

Last month, the average price was $485,528, marking an 4.85 per cent climb over $456,374, the average price from July 2011.

The average resale price on single-family homes since the start of 2012 is 2.11 per cent higher than the same period one year ago.

Zone A, which roughly translates to northwest Calgary, had the highest sales totals in the city last month at 504 units moved.

Coventry Hills led the zone and the city in resale activity last month with 47 houses changing hands.

Zone C, which roughly covers southwest Calgary had the second highest resale activity in July with 405 units moved. The highest average resale price in the city last month also came from Zone C at $599,565.

The third highest sales totals came in Zone D, which roughly translates to southeast Calgary, with 295 sales.

The slowest section in the city for single-family homes last month was Zone B’s 189 sales.

This zone roughly covers northeast Calgary. Zone B also had the least average resale price at $301,602.

RISE IN LUXURY HOMES

Resale of luxury homes in Calgary soared in the first seven months of this year compared to the same time in 2011.

There have been 318 transactions of single-family homes priced $1 million or more since the start of 2012 compared to only 266 during the same span last year, according to numbers from the Calgary Real Estate Board.

The biggest rise was in the $1 million to $1.249 million price category, with 152 units sold since the start of the year after only 102 transactions during the same period in 2011.

Photo By: Thomas Hawk

SOME GREAT HEIGHTS!

Calgary luxury real estate market soars to new heights
Sales climb in million-dollar plus category
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald July 20, 2012

CALGARY — The demand for luxury real estate in Calgary has soared to new heights this year, fuelled by strong economic fundamentals, says a report by Sotheby’s International Realty Canada.

For the first six months of this year, there have been 301 homes sold for over $1 million in Calgary, up 19 per cent from the same period last year, said the report.

From January 1 to June 30, 2011, there were 253 homes sold for over $1 million and another 194 luxury homes sold between July 1 and December 31 that year.

The number of homes listed on the market for over $1 million was 474 between January 1 and June 30, 2011 and 473 homes between July 1 and December 31 in 2011. From January 1 to June 30 this year, there have been 908 homes listed at that price point.

The Sotheby’s report said six per cent of homes over $1 million this year have sold for over the asking price. The first half of last year also had six per cent selling for more than the list price while for the second half of last year it was eight per cent.

As for days on the market, the first half of this year was 53 days while for both halves of last year it was 49 days.

Corinne Poffenroth, a realtor in the Calgary office of Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, said a number of factors have contributed to the demand for luxury homes in the local market.

“We’re seeing a bit of a lifestyle change for some of the Baby Boomers here and that sometimes involves downsizing when they’re planning for retirement and it sometimes involves perhaps purchasing a second property either down south or B.C., and because of that there’s a bit of a trend moving, re-locating from some of the suburban areas back to the urban centres with some of the amenities closer by,” she said.

“I also think there’s some new optimism in the next generation of young professionals here. They’re seeking these exclusive, higher-end properties like both single-family and condo in some of the most sought-after areas of the city. And that can involve both urban and suburban areas as long as there’s amenities and transportation close by.”

Also, there is growing confidence and optimism in the province’s energy sector and all the industries that benefit from that.

“These higher-end buyers if they’re showing the confidence in buying these still multi-million dollar properties and second properties that’s a good thing for everyone else because that confidence just kind of goes on down the line in the market overall. There’s a huge sector of high-end buyers and I think that’s what’s increased the listings because these sellers are wanting to take advantage of this demand for higher-end homes and condos,” added Poffenroth.

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, MLS sales for properties in Calgary of $1-million or more were: 2011, 446; 2010, 365; 2009, 337; 2008, 369; 2007, 458; 2006, 334; and 2005, 138.

The biannual report of Canada’s four largest urban markets — Calgary, Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal — showed a steady upward trend in the first half of 2012 with Toronto, Calgary and Montreal all reporting double-digit sales growth in homes over $1 million.

In Vancouver, the 2011 to 2012 comparison of properties over $1 million, showed that the reigning hot spot for million-dollar listings is experiencing a similar correction to conventional properties in the area, said Sotheby’s. Sales in that price category of 1,291 properties so far this year are down 35 per cent from the same period last year, which had 1,996 transactions. The inventory of properties asking $1 million or more also rose 11 per cent in 2012, increasing to 3,912 from 3,518.

In the first half of 2012, the Greater Toronto Area reported a 29 per cent increase in sales, generating 3,113 transactions of million dollar-plus properties, compared with 2,405 in the first half of 2011. The inventory of listings in the GTA also rose 31 per cent from 6,193 homes listed over the $1 million price point to 8,105 listings, said the report.

Montreal experienced similar growth in both the sales and inventory of million-dollar real estate. This year, Montreal reported a 15 per cent sales increase with the first six months reporting 227 transactions exceeding $1 million compared with 196 in 2011. The volume of top-tier listings also increased 11 per cent from 590 in 2011 to 656 in 2012.

“Given the transition occurring in international economies like Europe and Asia, the value and stability of luxury property in Canada has become an increasingly recommended asset,” said Ross McCredie, Sotheby’s International Realty Canada chief executive.

THE HOUSING SQUEEZE

Jay Bryan: Did Ottawa squeeze housing at the wrong time?
By Jay Bryan
The Gazette July 16, 2012

Did the Harper government blunder into overstimulating a housing market that it’s now in the process of squeezing at just the wrong time?

The question springs to mind now that new numbers show Canada’s housing market showed signs of significant softness in June, with sales falling 4.4 per cent below their year-earlier level – the first such drop in a year – as the national average home price edged down by nearly one per cent.

This comes just as new, tighter mortgage-lending rules went into effect early in July, the key change being one that shortens the allowed repayment period on a government-backed insured mortgage to 25 years from 30.

The result is to jack up the monthly payment on a mortgage by about 10 per cent if the buyer was originally hoping to use the longer 30-year repayment option.

This is just the right medicine for an overheating real-estate market, but much more dubious when demand is already weakening. It will price some buyers, especially first-time ones, right out of the market.

Analysts, including some who favoured the tightening, are a little worried.

There was already a recent undercurrent of concern as home prices moved inexorably higher in the winter and spring: was the market setting itself for a painful fall? At TD Bank, chief economist Craig Alexander predicts an average price drop of 10 per cent to 15 per cent over the next two to three years.

Most analysts didn’t see such a big correction, although many think the priciest markets, Vancouver especially, are overdue for a dip.

But, warns economist Robert Hogue at Royal Bank, “the risks are higher now than they were before.” Hogue thought markets were cooling nicely even before the stricter rules came in. Now, he worries, “this may give a push beyond what the market needs.”

Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, thinks the market will probably adjust without too much trouble, but acknowledges that he too feels a little tug of concern. “This may have been one turn of the screw too many,” he says. “That’s the risk.”

The irony is that it was under this same Harper government that Canada loosened its mortgage rules so much that by late-2006 you could borrow for 40 years with nothing down. The then-governor of the Bank of Canada, David Dodge, saw this as so irresponsible that he broke the central bank’s usual rule against criticizing government policy.

It’s what foolish governments often do: curry favour by loosening policy too much in good times, only to have to tighten as conditions worsen.

So far, though, the market still appears to be healthy, with modest price gains in most big cities across Canada, but a downtrend in sales pointing to the possibility of further cooling in the very costly Vancouver and Toronto markets.

Indeed, in the country’s priciest market, Vancouver, prices actually fell by nearly one per cent last month, according to the Home Price Index compiled by the Canadian Real Estate Association. Over the entire past year, Vancouver prices are only up by a modest 1.7 per cent.

This evaporation of price gains in a market that was red hot last year was so dramatic that it helped stabilize the entire Canadian market. The average Canadian price fell by 0.8 per cent from a year ago, but once you remove Vancouver from the numbers, the average price elsewhere goes up by 3.2 per cent, not down.

This resulted from the unwinding of frenzied demand early last year for some of the highest-priced homes on the Vancouver market, said Hogue, the Royal Bank economist. Possibly because foreign demand waned, such homes are now much slower to sell.

Toronto prices barely moved last month, edging up by 0.2 per cent, although earlier gains pushed the average up by a strong 7.9 per cent year-over-year.

Montreal, where last month’s gain was a modest 0.3 per cent, is ahead by a total of 2.7 per cent over the past year, according to the Home Price Index, which, unlike simple price averages, seeks to eliminate the distortions caused by varying numbers of high-priced and lower-priced homes sold in different months.

Calgary stands out as the only city where the number of sales went up significantly – by a robust 17 per cent, in fact – but prices rose by a more modest 5.3 per cent.

BALANCE IN JUNE

Fewer home resales in June in a more balanced market: real estate association
By LuAnn LaSalle
The Canadian Press July 16, 2012

The number of Canadian homes sold last month dropped more than four per cent from the level in June 2011, the first year-over-year decline in sales volume since April 2011, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Monday.

Resales of homes were also down 1.3 per cent in June from May — the second month-to-month decline — with a total of 46,444 transactions through CREA members. That was down from 48,591 in June 2011, the association said.

"Canada's housing market lost a little altitude in June, but it's still flying pretty high," association president Wayne Moen said in a news release.

"That said, sales activity and average prices bucked the national easing trend in a number of markets, which underscores that all real estate is local," Moen said.

The national average home price in June was $369,339, down 0.8 per cent from the same month last year, CREA said.

Prices increased in Calgary, remained strong in Toronto and continued to slow in Vancouver.

However, CREA said its MLS Home Price Index — which the association says is a better measure because it adjusts for different types of properties sold — increased 5.1 per cent between May and June 2012.

There have been several reports saying some real estate markets and some types of housing are over valued, although there's a range of opinions about how much and how quickly prices will decline.

Economists and consumers have been closely watching for signs that demand has softened to the point where prices will start going down.

But the association, which represents real-estate boards and associations that handle most of the country's property transactions through the MLS system, said Monday the decline in sales activity and an increase in new listings resulted in a "more balanced" national housing market in June.

The number of newly listed homes rose 1.4 per cent in June compared to May, led by the Toronto market. Some 42 local markets, out of 100 markets across the country, registered a monthly increase in new listings of at least one per cent, the association said.

RBC senior economist Robert Hogue noted the resale market eased again in June but the number of homes newly listed for sale rose 1.4 per cent last month.

"Market conditions, therefore, eased a little, providing more breathing room for Canadian buyers," Hogue said in a research note.

"Despite this easing, the demand-supply equation continued to be balanced in the majority of markets in Canada. The previously tight Toronto market became much more balanced, whereas the Vancouver market inched closer to conditions favouring buyers," Hogue said.

In the first half of 2012, a total of 257,193 homes traded hands over Canadian MLS Systems, up 4.7 per cent from the same period in 2011.

Gregory Klump, CREA's chief economist, said home buyers didn't rush to make purchases before the latest restrictions on mortgage regulations came into effect in July.

"That's a big change compared to what we saw as a response to previously announced changes," Klump said.

"It will take some time before the compound effect of previous and recent changes to regulations on Canada's housing market becomes apparent."

Hogue also said that going forward this year he expects home resales to ease in light of the latest mortgage restrictions.

"This moderation trend will become more entrenched next year when we expect the Bank of Canada to begin normalizing its interest rate policy."

Under new mortgage rules announced in June by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, borrowers will be allowed to use up to 80 per cent of their property's value as collateral for home-equity loans, down from 85 per cent.

In addition, the maximum amortization period dropped to 25 years from 30 years for government insured mortgages.

Flaherty also said government-backed mortgage insurance will be limited to homes with a purchase price of less than $1 million.

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YOU'RE HOT & YOU'RE COLD!

Hot Toronto, cold Vancouver have competing effects on Canadian housing market
By Sunny Freeman
CANADIAN PRESS May 15, 2012

TORONTO – The Canadian housing market gained momentum in April as strong sales in the Toronto offset weakness in Vancouver, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.

April seasonally adjusted home sales on CREA’s Multiple Listing Service gained 0.8 per cent compared with March.

On a year-over-year basis, the association said there were 49,480 homes sold in April, up 11.5 per cent from 44,370 a year ago, when sales slowed following a tightening of mortgage lending rules including the elimination of 35-year amortizations came into effect in March 2011.

Two of Canada’s largest markets are having opposite effects on the national average, with slowing sales and falling prices in Vancouver dragging, and soaring sales and prices in Toronto exerting upward pressure.

The average home price in Canada in April was up 0.9 per cent from a year ago at $375,810.

“It bears repeating that the national average price was skewed higher last spring by record level high-end home sales in Vancouver’s priciest neighbourhoods, and that a replay of this phenomenon was not expected this year,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist.

The average selling price in Vancouver was down 9.8 per cent compared with a year ago at $735,315, while the average price in Toronto was up 8.4 per cent at $517,556. April sales in Vancouver slid 13.2 per cent while Toronto sales picked up 14.5 per cent compared to a year ago.

“Trends in Vancouver and Toronto continue to diverge. These two housing markets have an obvious influence on national statistics and a high profile, but Canada is a big place,” said Wayne Moen, CREA President.

Excluding Toronto and Vancouver, the average price in Canada was up 3.1 per cent from a year ago.

Gains in Montreal, Winnipeg, Edmonton, as well as London and St. Thomas, Ont., also contributed to the increased sales, offsetting declines in Ottawa, Windsor-Essex, Quebec City, the Fraser Valley, and Vancouver.

Continued strength in the housing market, largely due to the staying power of low interest rates, has led some economists to warn the market is overvalued. That could make homeowners vulnerable to a downturn, especially those who have used low interest rates to borrow more than they could otherwise afford.

TD Bank estimates Canadian home prices are 10 to 15 per cent overvalued, with the excess most evident in Toronto and Vancouver, said TD economist Diana Petramala.

“With mortgage rates still at rock bottom through the early part of this year and job creation heating up through March and April, it’s not that surprising to see continued growth in Canadian home sales,” she said.

“Still, growth in home prices and sales will likely be limited as the overvaluation has led to a deterioration in affordability. Overall, we anticipate the Canadian housing market to remain relatively flat in the coming year with home prices to rise just another two per cent this year, following gains of seven per cent in each of the last two years.”

The number of newly listed homes pared back 0.2 per cent from March to April, which, combined with slightly higher sales resulted in a tighter national housing market, but remains firmly entrenched in balanced market territory,” CREA said in a release.

A total of 157,804 homes have traded hands so far this year, up 6.4 per cent from levels reported in the first four months of 2011.

That’s also about four per cent higher than both the five- and 10-year averages for sales during the first third of the year.

Sales on CREA’s Multiple Listing Service was either up or held steady in half of all local markets, with Toronto and Calgary posting the biggest monthly increases for the second consecutive month.

Toronto home sales in 2012 have been particularly strong, up 9.5 per cent from year ago levels at 31,639 homes sold so far this year. But sales in Vancouver, a market that was bustling with high-end home purchases last year, are down 19.9 per cent so far this year at 9,935 homes sold.

“While these two cities are garnering most of the attention, Calgary is quietly becoming a market to watch,” said BMO economist Robert Kavcic, adding that sales in the city jumped 30 per cent year-over-year in April.

“If oil prices remain high enough to continue supporting strong economic growth and migration flows, Calgary could again become Canada’s real estate hot spot in short order.”

GO BIG & GO HOME!

Canadians want more luxury homes, Re/Max says
By Canadian Press May 16, 2012

MISSISSAUGA, Ont. – The Re/Max real-estate sales organization says demand for high-priced housing was strong in most Canadian markets in the first months of this year, with records set in 10 of the 16 markets it tracks.

Vancouver was one of the six markets where the luxury market has cooled off after an especially hot period last year but demand in Toronto remained high.

The organization says the price of luxury housing depends on the market, from a low of $500,000 in such mid-sized cities as St. John’s, N.L., and Halifax to a high of $2 million in the Vancouver area.

In the case of Regina, which had the biggest increase in luxury sales this year, there was a 56 per cent more sales of at least $500,000.

In Canada’s most expensive market, Vancouver, there was a 31-per-cent decline from last year’s peak with 393 luxury homes sold in the first quarter.

By contrast, Toronto’s market has been hotter than last year, with 412 homes sold for at least $1.5 million each – a 49-per-cent increase from early 2011.

ON THE RISE...NATIONALLY

Canada’s home sales back on the rise
Postmedia News
Mar 15, 2012

Following a rough start to 2012, home sales in Canada rebounded in February with a modest increase from the previous month.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) said Thursday that home sale rose by 1.4% between January and February, which helped recover roughly one-third of the 4.5% drop recorded the previous month.

Compared with the same reporting period the previous year, activity was 8.6% higher than February 2011. Over the first two months of 2012, some 61,772 homes were sold, which represents a 6.7% hike from the same period in 2011.

“The national rise in both sales activity and the number of newly listed homes beyond the normal seasonal increase provides clear evidence that Canadians are confident in housing market prospects,” CREA president Gary Morse said in a new release.

New home listings also jumped 1.9% in February, representing the highest level since May 2010. The association said a spike in new listings in Canada’s two busiest markets — Toronto and Montreal — helped counterbalance a decrease in listings in Vancouver, which is the country’s third-largest market.

CREA said that the balance between sales and new listings remains fairly equal.

On a year-over-year basis, average home sale prices were up fully two% in February 2012. The average price of all homes sold that month was $372,763.

The association said that the increase was partly due to a rise in high-end home sales in the Vancouver area, which was not anticipated. Single detached residences in the Toronto area also continue to fuel home gains.

RLP PREDICTS RISE IN 2012

Expect home prices to keep rising in 2012: Royal LePage
By Derek Abma
National Post Jan 12, 2012

OTTAWA — Canada’s housing market will continue to be strong this year, with rising property values expected in all major markets, real estate brokerage firm Royal LePage said Thursday.

The company’s forecast called for prices across to country to rise 2.8% by the end of 2012, after stronger gains last year.

It said in the fourth quarter of 2011, the average price of a standard two-storey home was $375,427, up 4.2% from a year earlier. The average rate of a detached bungalow was up 6.1% to $344,392, while condominiums gained 3.6% to $234,680.

“Widespread calls for a major real estate correction in 2012 simply can’t be justified,” Royal LePage CEOPhil Soper said in a statement. “The industry has significant momentum entering the year, and buoyed by the stimulative effect of very low interest rates, we expect the market to continue to expand — albeit at a slower pace.”

Statistics Canada reported Thursday that its new housing price index rose 0.3% in November, following on a 0.2% increase in October, and was up 2.5% year-over-year.

Price increases in Toronto, Oshawa and Montreal offset declines in Calgary, Vancouver and the Ontario metropolitan regions of Sudbury and Thunder Bay, the agency said. Builders in all four areas reported lowering prices in order to stimulate sales and remain competitive, while price increases elsewhere were attributed to higher material and labour costs.

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. has forecast the average price of a listed homes for resale to be $363,900 this year, up 1.2% from 2011. The Canadian Real Estate Association predicted that the average price would be relatively flat at $362,700. Both forecasts were made in November.

Royal LePage said even pricey housing markets in Vancouver and Toronto — where standard two-storey homes averaged $1.1-million and $629,188, respectively, in the last quarter — will see continued price appreciation in 2012.

However, it said stronger gains will be seen in cities benefiting from commodity-based economies, such as Calgary, Regina and Winnipeg, where price gains will be in the range of four to five per cent.

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TELL ME A STORY

What's the real story of Canada's housing market?
Financial Post · Oct. 5, 2011

OTTAWA — Home prices rose during the third quarter of 2011, but the raw numbers may not be telling the whole story of the Canadian housing market, a new survey says.

The Royal LePage House Price Survey released Wednesday found that the average price of a home in Canada increased between 5.7% and 7.8% in the third quarter of 2011 compared with the same period last year.

The average price of a detached bungalow was $349,974, a standard two-storey home was $388,218 and a standard condominium was $239,300, according to the survey.

Royal LePage said that the rise in price defied expectations and suggested that record-low interest rates and a fairly stable Canadian economy have bolstered consumer confidence.

However, the third quarter of 2010 was a relatively weak period for housing prices, which makes the increase this year appear rosier than they are and may mask a decline in prices in the months ahead, it said.

“The strength in Canada’s national housing market conceals signs of predictable softening in some regions,” Phil Soper, president and chief executive of Royal LePage Real Estate Services, said in a statement.

“A broader slowdown is expected in the months ahead, but fears of a U.S.-style correction are completely unfounded.”

Vancouver had the highest priced homes in the country during the third quarter of 2011 and was the only city in the survey where the average bungalow or two-storey home cost more than $1 million.

Halifax, Montreal, Toronto, Saint John, N.B., and Ottawa all saw prices increase between 4.4% and 10.4%.

In Alberta, the volume of homes trading hands increased, but prices stayed soft, the survey found: Detached bungalows in Calgary fell 1% in the third quarter.

Victoria was similarly weak, with detached bungalows and standard two-storey homes falling two and 1.1% respectively.

RISE & REPEAT

Prices rise for repeat home sales in city
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald September 29, 2011

A survey of repeat home sales shows Calgary prices increased in July by 2.3 per cent from the previous month.

But the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index, released Wednesday, also indicated Calgary prices are down 0.9 per cent from a year ago - the only centre in the survey to experience a year-over-year price decline.

The index is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index.

The survey also said Calgary's index is still down 8.8 per cent from its alltime high of August 2007 and down 0.9 per cent from its pre-correction peak of August 2010.

For the six centres surveyed, the index was up 1.3 per cent on a monthly basis and 5.3 per cent on an annual basis.

Monthly increases were experienced in Montreal, 0.5 per cent, Ottawa, 1.0 per cent, Toronto, 1.7 per cent, and Vancouver, 0.9 per cent.

Annual increases were experienced in Halifax, 3.3 per cent, Montreal, 6.0 per cent, Ottawa, 4.1 per cent, Toronto, 4.8 per cent, and Vancouver, 8.5 per cent.

Meanwhile, the latest Global Real Estate Trends report released by Scotia Economics said the renewed slowdown in global economic activity is putting further downward pressure on already-weak residential property markets across much of the developed world.

And while Canada's hot housing market also has begun to cool, it remains a "notable outperformer," said Adrienne Warren, senior economist and real estate specialist with Scotia Economics.

Of the nine major developed markets tracked by Scotia Economics, with available second quarter data, only Canada, France and Switzerland registered positive year-over-year real price growth.

The report said Canada's housing market stands out in its resilience and longevity. Average inflation-adjusted existing home prices were up five per cent year-over-year in the April-June period, on par with the first-quarter's pace of appreciation. Data for July and August point to continued firm but stable sales through the late summer, alongside a levelling out in prices.

"Ultralow interest rates will continue to support affordability in the face of record high prices," said Warren. "Nonetheless, heightened economic uncertainty combined with recent signs of a loss of momentum in Canada's jobs market could keep some potential buyers on the sidelines for the time being. On balance, we anticipate a modest slowdown in the volume of sales transactions heading into year-end, alongside relatively flat prices."

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DROP IT LIKE IT'S HOT

Canada home affordability drops, Vancouver pricier
REUTERS
Monday August 22, 2011

TORONTO (Reuters) - Housing in Canada became harder to afford in the second quarter, with Vancouver's pricey market playing a major role in the deterioration, according to a report by Royal Bank of Canada on Monday.

It was the second straight quarter in which the bank's quarterly Housing Trends and Affordability Index dropped. The cost of housing rose nationally across all the housing types the index tracks in the second quarter.

The index measures the proportion of pretax household income needed to service the cost of owning a home. A rise in the measure indicates a loss of affordability.

For a detached bungalow, the measure rose 1.7 percentage points to 43.3 percent. For a standard condominium, it edged up 0.8 percentage points to 29.2 percent, and for a standard two-storey home it climbed 1.8 percentage points to 49.3 percent.

Vancouver, which has long seen exceptional growth in home prices compared with other Canadian cities, directly accounted for up to one-third of the deterioration in affordability on the national score, the RBC report said.

"Vancouver's housing market is without a doubt the most stressed in Canada and is facing the highest risk of a downturn," said chief economist Craig Wright.

Other local housing markets were reasonably affordable or at worst, slightly unaffordable, the report showed.

Housing sector observers generally see the overall pace of housing activity, from starts to resales, slowing in the coming months, partly due to tighter mortgage regulations introduced earlier in the year and as pent-up demand gets absorbed.

(Reporting by Ka Yan Ng; editing by Peter Galloway)

THE SHORTEST MONTH SHOWS GROWTH

Calgary MLS sales rise in February
Prices up 3% from last year
By Mario Toneguzzi,
Calgary Herald March 15, 2011

CALGARY - Overall residential MLS sales and average prices rose in Calgary in February, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

In data released Tuesday, CREA said Calgary sales, which included all residential properties, were 1,917 for the month, up by 0.2 per cent from a year ago.

The average MLS sale price was $400,879, an increase of three per cent from February 2010.

Nationally, CREA said sales dropped by 5.9 per cent to 34,093 transactions but the average sale price rose 8.8 per cent year-over-year to $365,192.

"The average price has been skewed higher nationally and in British Columbia recently by a record number of multi-million dollar sales in a couple of areas in Greater Vancouver," said Gregory Klump, CREA's Chief Economist.

"When you take Vancouver out of the equation, the year-over-year increase in the national average price drops to 3.4 per cent. While that's still stronger than in the past six months or so, national average price gains may recede after tighter mortgage regulations take effect in March."

2 MONTHS OF A CHILL

Home resales cool for second straight month
Reuters
Published: Monday, March 15, 2010

TORONTO -- Sales of existing homes in Canada dipped for a second straight month in February, but remained high on a year-over-year basis, as the market may be moving into more balanced conditions, data showed on Monday.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) said a total of 42,799 homes changed hands last month, down 1.5% from January, as a large gain in sales in Toronto were offset by declines in Vancouver and other British Columbia housing markets.

The real estate group said the Winter Olympics, which were held in the host city of Vancouver and nearby areas, may have played a factor in lower sales in the province last month.

Unit sales in British Columbia were down 13.3% in February from January, compared with a 3.3% advance in Ontario.

Across Canada, sales rose 44% from the same month last year, a smaller gain in national activity from the previous three months. This was in line with economists' views that year-over-year comparisons are likely to shrink in coming months because the recovery of the housing market started in February 2009.

"Housing markets are becoming more balanced," said Gregory Klump," CREA's chief economist.

After a relatively short spell of low consumer confidence during the global financial crisis, Canadian homebuyers were quickly back in the market and have made the housing sector one of the cornerstones of the domestic economic recovery. The pace of the rebound has encouraged debate about a housing bubble.

But with rising supply -- new listings rose for a fifth straight month, up 2.4% -- it could take the steam out of the housing markets as the year goes on, said Mr. Klump.

Ultralow interest rates could further prompt home resales this spring before the arrival of new mortgage rules in April and changes to provincial sales tax regimes in British Columbia and Ontario, before cooling in the second half of the year.

"We should see the Canadian housing market move slowly back into a balanced-market position as higher mortgage rates and prices begin to temper demand," said Millan Mulraine, economics strategist at TD Securities.

CREA said the national average home price in February rose 18.2% from a year earlier to $335,655 (US$329,074)

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