AGE AND CONDO DEMAND

Condo demand stronger among older Canadians: BMO
Business News Network May 30, 2013

Think the condo market is a young man's game? Think again, a report from BMO says the demand among potential homebuyers for purchasing a condo is greater for Canadians over the age of 50.

Among prospective buyers over the age 50, about 30 percent said they were willing to buy a condo over the next five years, compared to just 17 percent for Canadians under the age 50, the survey said.

The condo market in Canada's cities is also being divided into the haves and have nots, the survey noted.

In both Toronto and Calgary the appetite for buying a condo is on the rise, while demand is falling in Montreal and Vancouver.

About one-third of prospective buyers surveyed in Toronto said they were planning to buy a condo in the next five years, an increase of 11 points from a survey conducted in the fall.

In Calgary, 33 percent of buyers said they were considering purchasing a condo in that time period, up 8 percent from a previous survey.

But the story in Vancouver and Montreal is the complete opposite, with the percentage of buyers thinking of purchasing a condo falling to 28 percent from 33 percent in Vancouver and down 3 points to 24 percent in Montreal.

"Condos remain an affordable alternative to the pricey detached market in some major cities," said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. "For example, a typical Toronto condo today requires just 22 percent of a median family's income to service; Vancouver condos - while more expensive - are still affordable at 28 percent of income.

The report from BMO comes amid a debate among economists and other investors whether the country's housing market is headed for a U.S.-style crash. While many economists on Bay Street say the country is moving towards a "soft landing," a number of investors say that call is too optimistic.

The condo market in major cities such as Toronto and Vancouver, has attracted significant negative attention.

On Wednesday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in its twice-yearly Economic Outlook warned of a potential for a pullback in housing prices in Canada. The OECD said Canada is one of three countries in the 34-member group where "houses appear overvalued but prices are still rising." The Toronto condominium market is the agency's "number one concern."

While a dramatic collapse in the housing market is unlikely, Jarrey said it can't be ruled out completely.

"Nobody saw the huge decline in the United State coming either five or six years ago – not nobody, but very few – and we could be having something very similar but it's not a very likely outcome," he said.

MAY, OUI

Calgary condo sales in May see upward trend
May 28, 2013

As the month of May nears its end, Calgary’s resale condo market has seen a healthy upward movement in sales and prices.

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, month-to-date until May 27, there have been 346 MLS sales in the condo apartment category, up 5.17 per cent from the same period last year.

The median price has risen by 4.56 per cent to $261,500 while the average sale price is up by 12.39 per cent to $310,871.

In the condo townhouse category, sales of 311 are 25.91 per cent higher than a year ago; the median price has increased by 7.63 per cent to $317,500; and the average sale price is up 3.54 per cent to $342,638.

Source: Calgary Herald Blog

FAMILY SIZE & THE CONDO MARKET

Shrinking family sizes bode well for Canada’s condo sector
Garry Marr
Financial Post Sep 19, 2012

Maybe the condo industry knew something revealed to the rest of us only Wednesday — family sizes are shrinking.

Statistics Canada’s census data showed a dramatic increase in one-person households, up 10.4% from 2006 to 2011. For the first-time, more households were comprised of couples without children than with children. Family size also shrunk, with the average number of children dropping from 2.7 in 1961 to 1.9 in 2011.

All of this seems to bode well for a condominium sector which demands its occupants accept smaller quarters than they are historically used to.

“I think the housing stock has already responded,” said Don Lawby, chief executive of Century 21 Canada. “I think the major cities are the ones that reacted the fastest. There is a movement that has been forced by economics to smaller accommodation.”

Mr. Lawby notes if you’ve made the decision not to have children, as the statistics show some have, that means you are living a very different life and your housing needs are not the same.

“Of course, this all plays into the condo’s hand,” he says. “But there still will be people who desire to have a single family detached home where they are the king of the castle.”

The evidence already points to huge demand for high-rise units, both from buyers who want to live in the units and investors who rent them out. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said it expects 207,200 new housing starts with 123,700 in the multiple-unit category, predominantly made up of condominiums.

And while there are forecasts that the housing market is slowing, the Crown corporation is still predicting 193,100 starts next year with 109,000 coming from the multiple category. Condominium projects in Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto have driven the demand, CMHC says.

Brian Johnston, chief operating officer of Mattamy Corp., said the industry has been responding rather than leading. “I think there has been demand for smaller housing,” he said.

All of this might just confirm what the real estate industry has been saying all along — they were just giving the people what they want. “I see these comments that builders are building too many houses — builders don’t create new houses because it’s a good idea, they do it because there is demand,” says Mr. Johnston, noting bank financing requires high pre-sale levels.

Doug Norris, chief demographer at Environics Analytics, predicts the impact on real estate of the country’s changing demographics is just starting. “Part of the condo boom is driven by Boomers starting to downsize and move into new types of housing,” he said. “[Living in] the single family [home] starts to dwindle after 50.”

Though the impact of the Baby Boomers has yet to be seen, Mr. Norris said they will probably downsize more than their predecessors.

Craig Alexander, chief economist with Toronto-Dominion Bank, says while there definitely is more demand for condo-style living, the overall amount of housing stock being built is still above household formation.

“We can tell from the census numbers that we are building too many houses,” says Mr. Alexander, noting there were 189,000 net new households per year from 2006 to 2011. “Yet when we look at the pace of home construction it has been well over 200,000 and in fact it was 218,000 annualized starts so far in 2012.”

He says you can build past demographic requirements for a short period, perhaps catching up with a previous lag, but it has to stop at some point.

“On the one hand I am concerned about the condo market because when we look at the current pace of construction and compare it to a generally sustainable rate, it’s way too fast but over the long haul there is long-term strong demand for condos,” says Mr. Alexander.

A"MAY"ZING MONTH!

Condo resale market climbs in May
By Josh Skapin
Calgary Herald, June 8, 2012

Calgary’s condo resale activity climbed 35 per cent in May, compared to the same time last year, says the Calgary Real Estate Board.

In fact, there were 675 apartment or townhouse sales last month after only 500 condo units changed hands in May 2011.

The average resale price for condo apartments last month was $280,030. For townhouses, the average price was $330,446.

High-end condo sales are also on the upswing in the city.

After the first five months of 2012, 10 townhouses priced from $900,000 were sold in the city — only three units in that price range changed hands during the same period in 2011.

For condo apartments, eight units have sold for at least $900,000 so far in 2012, compared to five units last year.

Zone C, which roughly covers southwest Calgary, paced the city in condo sales last month with 385. The zone also saw the highest average resale price at $322,204. It also paced the city in inventory with 1,016 available units.

Located in Zone C, Connaught topped all Calgary communities in May with 49 units sold. Also in Zone C, Springbank Hill had the highest average price at $571,200.

A distant second to Zone C’s sales totals in May was Zone A, which roughly corresponds to northwest Calgary. It saw 189 sales at an average resale value of $295,682.

Zone D, which roughly covers southeast Calgary was third in sales totals last month with 69 at an average resale value of $263,609.

The slowest area of the city for condo sales was Zone B, which roughly covers northeast Calgary. It had 32 sales at an average price of $170,893. The community with the lowest average price in the city was Forest Lawn at $88,000.

With the new day comes new strength and new thoughts. Eleanor Roosevelt

Calgary’s new condo market emerging from economic downturn
Sales increasing for new projects
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald March 6, 2012

CALGARY — Calgary’s new residential condominium market is in the early days of a recovery from the 2008 economic downturn, says a new housing report by AltusGroup.

The report said new condo apartment sales had plummeted in Calgary with the recent economic crisis and stayed low through 2010, but the market turned around in 2011.

New condo apartment sales in Calgary more than doubled in 2011 to just under 2,500 units, up from just over 1,100 units in 2010.

The report said a large number of new project launches boosted the number of units in projects on the market at year-end to about 8,000 units, up 26 per cent from a year earlier, split almost evenly between low-rise and highrise buildings.

“The weakness in the Calgary market in 2008-2010 was at least in part due to the exit of investors,” said the report. “However, improving economic conditions and lower vacancies are attracting investors back into the market.”

TIME FOR TAKE OFF

Move over Toronto, Calgary’s condo market about to take off in 2012
Garry Marr
Financial Post Mar 2, 2012

A new report suggests Toronto’s condominium market may have finally peaked in 2011 but Calgary’s may be just catching fire.

The report from real estate research firm Altus Group notes new condominium sales climbed more than 100% in 2011 from a year earlier in the oilpatch.

“New condominium apartment sales in Calgary had plummeted with the recent economic crisis and stayed low in 2010. However, the market turned in 2011,” says Altus, in its report. Sales of new condominiums climbed from 1,100 in 2010 t0 2,500 in 2011.

Altus says the number of unsold units was steady from the end of 2010 as new projects saw strong initial sales. The group says improved economic conditions and lower rental vacancies are attracting investors back into the market.

“The weakness in the Calgary market from 2008-2010 was at least in part due to the exit of investors,” says Altus.

Meanwhile, Toronto has to deal with a large potential supply of new condominiums in the pipeline. RealNet Canada says more than 79,000 condominium apartments were under construction or in pre-construction in the greater Toronto area at the end of 2011.

“Planned occupancies extend as far as 2016,” Altus says, noting it takes about five years for all units released for sale in any given year to be completed.

Even if half of those condos under construction become rentals, that would add 40,000 units to the supply of condo apartments, meaning demand for rental would have to increase by 8,000 units per year to maintain current vacancy levels.

“While this was achieved last year it is more than double the average annual growth,” says Altus, adding government plans are encouraging condos as a percentage of new home sales.

The issue in Toronto remains whether rental levels can be maintained for investor-owned apartments, although a portion of investors are said to be off-shore buyers with less concern about their returns in the short-term and medium term.

“Looking ahead our expectation is that GTA new condominium apartment sales peaked in 2011, and more moderate sales levels will emerge over the next few years,” says Altus. “In Calgary, there is a potential for further improvement in sales during this cycle.”

COMPARATIVE DATA

Calgary MLS sales in 2011 top 2010: CREB
Eight per cent hike year over year
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald January 3, 2012

CALGARY - Calgary residential MLS sales in 2011 increased by eight per cent over the previous year, says the Calgary Real Estate Board.

In releasing its December data on Tuesday, CREB said total sales reached 18,568 for 2011 compared with 17,267 in 2010.

“Recovering from tepid sales activity in the first half of 2011, early improvements in employment and migration resulted in a pickup in housing demand in the second half of the year,” said the board in a news release. “By the end of June 2011, year-to-date sales activity had only increased by two per cent compared to the second half of the year, where residential sales improved by 15 per cent.”

Sano Stante, president of CREB, said sales activity remained 17 per cent below the long-run average but monthly figures point toward the trend of this gap narrowing.

In the single-family home market, there were 13,186 sales in 2011, a nine per cent increase over the previous year.

Meanwhile, the condominium market recorded declining sales for nearly half of the year, but favourable pricing and improved economic conditions pushed sales up by double-digit rates for the second half of the year, said CREB.

Condo sales totalled 5,382 in 2011, a four per cent increase over the previous year.

“The demand recovery in the condominium market lagged the single-family market, as price adjustments in both the single-family and condominium markets resulted in more selection for consumers,” said Stante. “For the first time in several years, consumers had additional selection of single-family homes at a lower price range, which directly competed with the condominium market.”

The single-family average price in 2011 reached $466,402, a one per cent increase over the previous year. The average price for condos of $287,172 remained one per cent lower than the previous year.

“Throughout 2011, elevated levels of inventories have limited price growth as consumers benefited from sufficient supply of housing to choose from. However, as these inventories drop to levels more consistent with a balanced market, we can expect some moderate price growth moving forward,” said Stante.

A NOTABLE MENTION!

GTA condo sales this year smash record
Garry Marr
Financial Post Nov 22, 2011

Condominium sales are taking over the Greater Toronto Area new housing market and some parts of the country are following closely behind as rising costs push consumers into vertical housing, a new report suggests.

The Building Industry and Land Development Association said there were 23,747 condo sales in the Greater Toronto Area through the first 10 months of the year, smashing the previous high of 22,316 in 2007 — with two months yet to go.

High-rise sales accounted for approximately 61% of all sales in GTA from January-October. At this point last year high-rise sales only accounted for 57% of the overall market.

“It’s very much becoming a condo market,” said Joe Vaccaro, acting president of BILD. “Ten years ago the split was 25% high-rise versus 75% low-rise.”

The trend appears contained not just to Toronto’s urban core but is now moving to the suburbs. “There seems to be a new trend setting in over the last couple of months with the 905 [suburban] areas outperforming Toronto when it comes to [condo] sales,” said Mr. Vaccaro.

Suburban land costs have skyrocketed because of what the industry refers to as regulatory inertia with no new land developments approved in the suburbs over the last five years. It has led to the hoarding of land and rising prices for single detached homes.

A report Tuesday from Altus Group suggests the GTA will not see any sort of slowdown in new condo construction in 2012.

“New condominium apartment sales in Toronto and Ottawa continue to hum along, which will continue to buoy apartment starts in Ontario through 2012,” said Altus.

Peter Norman, chief economist for the Altus Group, says population growth has supported the Toronto condominium market. “That number of people generates a fair amount of housing demand no matter what is happening,” says Mr. Norman. “Add in the interest rate environment, and them not going up, and that adds to it. There has been a restriction on [new] lots and a lot of people have been shoved into apartments.”

The group looked at 10 real estate markets across the country and found only Alberta is set to rise in 2012. Regina, along with Toronto, is forecast for flat sales.

“Calgary and Edmonton employment growth in 2011 has more than made up for 2010’s declines,” says Altus. “Although employment growth will be more moderate in 2012, the strong showing this year is favourable for stronger housing starts in 2012.”

Altus is forecasting apartment starts to jump to 5,475 in 2012, up from 3,975 in 2011. Single family construction is also forecast to jump to 22,325 in 2012 from 20,906, putting high-rise construction at almost 20% of the Alberta market.

Phil Soper, chief executive of Royal LePage Real Estate Services Inc., says his company has noticed the trend in top condominium apartments in its corporate owned franchises in Toronto and Vancouver. “There is the cost of the commute, the hard costs like gas and insurance but then there is the soft costs in time,” he said, noting consumers look for housing that is closer to subways and urban cores.

If anything, he says Canadian cities, including Toronto, are playing catchup when it comes to high-rise construction. “Look at big established mature cities like New York. They have much more vertical living per resident than we do, they just don’t have as much on per capita basis that is new,” says Mr. Soper. “We have hundred of thousands of new Canadians that have to be accommodated in Toronto.”

Photo By: Surrealplaces

THE 411 ON T.O. CONDOS

Cool with condo
Alex Newman
National Post  Nov. 18, 2011

As Toronto condo prices march steadily upward, luxury suites are right in step. Fetching at least $1,000 per square foot with sizes anywhere from 1,800 to 4,000 sq. ft., final sale prices are well into the millions. Not surprisingly, such projects are situated in the city's toniest neighbourhoods - Forest Hill, Yorkville, Yonge and St. Clair, the financial district, plus a smattering along the waterfront.

What is surprising, however, is who is buying. In addition to the wealthy couple downsizing from their large family home, and foreign investors looking for a safe financial haven, there's a newly emerging group of younger buyers.

What's even more surprising is that a sizable number of them are first-time buyers, according to Tina Amato, vice-president at Baker Realty, which handles sales for the Ritz-Carlton. Given that suites start at $1.4-million, these younger buyers are clearly well employed. Because most are single and work long hours, they love to be able to walk to work through the PATH system, and love the hotel perks such as maid or room service, she says.

As much as they like to be pampered in exchange for the gruelling schedules, Ms. Amato says they're also realistic about spending: "If they can't manage the Ritz, they'll go the next project down, which may not be the Ritz, but is still luxury." Stephen Price, COO of Graywood Developments, which built the Ritz-Carlton, says 10 years ago "that group wouldn't have existed in a project of this nature."

A similar shift is apparent at Trump Toronto. "Early on, the bulk of our purchasers were a mix of Canadian and foreign investors," says Howard Tikka, director of marketing for Trump. As the tower nears completion, however, he is finding more local people, some empty nesters but particularly area finance workers who want to have a downtown residence. It's also attracted companies looking for guest suites for clients who come to Toronto on business.

A similar story unfolds at the Shangri-La - a 66-storey, 370-unit project described by its marketing manager Michael Braun as being at the "intersection of the cultural entertainment and business worlds." Situated at University and Adelaide, with suites ranging from $1-million to $13.3-million for a 6,700-sq.-ft. two-storey penthouse, it's attracting whiz kids who work in the financial district and are buying up some of the smaller suites.

Even empty nesters seem to be younger downtown. Mr Braun notes that a number of buyers aged 40 to 55, not yet retired but with older kids who are moving out, "want the action of downtown." Call it a condo mid-life crisis, if you will.

While the downtown buyer wants a hip location, the downsizing older couple craves a luxury spot in familiar territory: midtown or north Toronto where they've owned large family homes. They end up choosing suites in projects like The Four Seasons, Museum House and The Avenue.

"Buyers in a downsizing phase still want to stay in the community where they have always lived," says Elli Davis, a top Royal LePage agent for luxury residential resale. "They want to be able to walk to Forest Hill Village, take a quick streetcar ride to Yonge and St. Clair, be near the subway."

Those buyers are the majority of Hunter Milborne's clientele, as well. As managing partner of Sotheby's, he's sold some of the city's most expensive condos to people from "higher-end neighbourhoods, like Bayview, Forest Hill and the Kingsway. And most are independently wealthy."

The suites they buy - for anywhere from $1-million to $10-million - aren't even a "huge part of their net worth," Mr. Milborne says. One couple, who couldn't decide which apartment to buy, purchased both, figuring they'd sell whichever one they decided not to keep.

And what this market wants more than anything is space, says Mimi Ng, vice-president for Menkes, which developed the Four Seasons. "Our purchasers are primarily end users who are either downsizing from a family home, or already living in a condo and making the move to a larger suite in a new building," she explains.

The other draw is service, which could put hotel-condos in the front of the luxury pack. "A big part of buying into the [Four Seasons] is its reputation for incredible personalized service, and access to all those amenities, concierge, spa, restaurant," Ms. Ng says.

The final group of luxury buyers is international. "International buyers represent about a third of the suite sales at Shangri-La," Mr. Braun says. He figures these buyers probably have business interests in the city, and tend to travel from home to home.

Trump Toronto also has its share of the international market. Mr. Tikka says their buyers come from the U.K., the U.S. and 20 other countries. While Canadians account for about 35% of Trump purchasers, U.K. buyers represent about 25% and U.S. about 20%. The remaining 20% are scattered throughout the world.

The waterfront is a big draw for the international buyer, says Cityzen Group's president Sam Crignano. His Pier 27 project has a wide variety of suite prices, but luxury purchasers are attracted to the penthouse suites, which command about $1,000 per square foot.

Mr. Crignano has recently noticed an increasing interest "from wealthy buyers from mainland China and south Asia," he says. "They may want to live in the suite, but mostly they want to park money with the reassurance that if there's political upheaval where they're from, there's a place they can go to."

Foreign buyers have always gravitated to waterfront properties, Mr. Crignano says. "[It's a trend] that's not just here but elsewhere in the world, because there's a perception that waterfront projects demand a higher-per-square-foot price."

While location and suite size are major factors in luxury purchases, suite finishes are a close second. These include marble bathrooms, 10-or 12foot ceilings, top-of-the-line fixtures and kitchen cabinetry and appliance packages featuring Sub-Zero, Wolf or Miele. Other draws: soaker tubs and rainshower sprays and saunas and private elevators, also real hardwood floors (as opposed to engineered hardwood), granite, marble or limestone tiles, plaster cornice mouldings, and eight-inch baseboards.

Amenity spaces are also lar-ger and more luxurious. The city's usual requirement of two square metres of amenity space per unit won't do in a luxury building. For one thing, units are typically large, so there are fewer per building, which makes amenity space smaller than any mid-market building.

The pampering quotient of amenities is nice, especially when they include spas and such, but they're as much about increasing a resident's overall living space. A 1,000sq.-ft. condo in the Trump Tower, for example, expands exponentially to include housekeeping and room service, a two-level full-service spa and wellness facility, and a 10,000-sq.-ft. business facility.

Naturally, maintenance fees reflect these benefits, with high-end projects levying $1 per sq. ft. "What creates cost is staff," Mr. Milborne says. "Valet parking, concierge, spa manager that all translates into high maintenance fees."

About 8% of the condobuying public qualifies for a luxury product. What's financing this choice, at least in the downsizing set, says Ms. Davis, is the fact that they own large homes that have appreciated wildly since first purchased. Simultaneously, there's a "transfer of funds coming down the generations."

They've got the money, but they're ready to shed responsibility, Ms. Davis says. They're trading the high-maintenance large home for the freewheeling condo lifestyle. But with few options in familiar neighbourhoods - close to the shops and cafés they're attached to - developers have had to find land, even if it's on the fringes of established single-family neighbourhoods. 1717 Avenue Road - the first condo project in that whole area - for example has attracted three of Ms. Davis's empty nester clients.

Although the price tags on luxury suites can run as high as $10-million, Ms. Amato says Toronto is still "cheap" in the world market: "Our prices are lower than any other large city in the world, including Vancouver. The Ritz, at $1,100 per sq. ft. for example, is a lot lower than New York where I'd say it's at least $4,000 per sq. ft. for something super luxury."

Which is to say, luxury could be considered a bargain in this city.

BUYERS LURED!

More buyers attracted to city's condo market
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald September 20, 2011

Two high-profile projects will launch into the next phases of their development this weekend, suggesting the city may be poised for a residential condo rebound.

Keynote Urban Village will open its doors to a new show suite for its second tower in the east Beltline area while University City will launch its Building 3 project near the Brentwood LRT Station.

"Activity in the condo market has been gradually improving," said Richard Cho, senior market analyst in Calgary for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.

"Gains in employment, favourable mortgage rates, and price reductions have attracted buyers to the condo market, especially those looking for their first place."

A majority of Calgary condo sales this year have been for units priced below $300,000, said Cho, who expects to see more apartment-type condos break ground in the coming months. "There has been an uptick in the number of apartment permits issued, signalling the intention of more activity," he said.

According to CMHC figures, the 451 apartment starts in August was the highest monthly total since May 2008.

The 29-storey second Keynote residential tower will include 250 suites.

Possessions are scheduled for summer 2013.

Project sales manager Jeannie Elrafie said sales have been surging during the past eight months and that's "telling us there is an upswing underway in the Calgary real-estate market".

"We're getting a lot more demand than we ever were," she said.

The Keynote development, which encompasses nearly an entire city block on 1st Street S.E., already includes a 26-storey residential tower comprising 179 units, and a 14-storey office tower that includes 40,000 square feet of retail space, occupied by the likes of Sunterra Market, Starbucks, and an RBC Royal Bank branch.

The city's subdivision and development appeal board last week approved construction of the first two condo highrises for the University City project.

An invitation for this weekend's VIP launch of the third building says 400 condos sold in five days for the project's first two buildings.

A public launch is expected to be announced next week.

The first two towers are 18-storeys, each with 216 units.

The University City website states the project's third and fourth phases will consist of 12-to 14-storey buildings.

The planned fifth phase will be four storeys.

APARTMENT SALES ENLARGEMENT

Mondo condo sales for 2011
Lisa Van De Ven,
National Post, Sept. 10, 2011

If you ask Ben Myers, 25,000 is the magic number. There may still be a few months left of 2011, but Mr. Myers, executive vicepresident and editor at real estate research firm Urbanation, already has his forecast for the year. He expects there will be 25,000 new condominium sales by the end of 2011. If he's right, it'll be a new record, surpassing 2007's previous record of about 22,500 new condo sales.

"We're certainly on pace to have the most condominium sales in any one year in 2011," Mr. Myers says. And with the Toronto new-condo market coming off a busier-than-normal summer and a record-setting second quarter, he's not surprised.

Urbanation recently released its second-quarter results. From April to June, Mr. Myers says, 9,455 new condo units were sold in the Toronto CMA. That's a record in itself; the previous best quarter was 2007's second quarter, when 6,997 units were sold. That wasn't the only Q2 number to be beat, though. The quarter also set records for the number of active projects, the number of active units, the number of new condominium launches and the number of projects and units under construction.

"There was a huge number of new projects coming on line," Mr. Myers says. "And surprisingly, even with all of this extra supply, they had the highest absorption rate ever of new product. Even in the face of all this additional supply, they sold better than any other new release that we had in a quarter."

But Mr. Myers is quick to dispel any talk that the Toronto market might be in the middle of a real estate bubble. Prices, he says, have remained "pretty consistent" over the past five years, with 7% to 9% increases in the new condo market from year to year.

"A bubble is characterized by rapid increases in prices, and we haven't seen that," he says. "That's the type of thing you obviously saw in the United States and you even saw in Calgary a few years ago, where you saw 20% and 25% increases year over year, and in our market in the '80s where we saw prices double in three years."

Developers, he says, have been doing their homework and "setting fairly moderate pricing." They're also, it seems, paying less attention to the sales seasons of the past. Whereas spring and fall are still the prime selling times, more developers decided to release their projects in the summer this year. Since the market is being driven by investors more than ever, Mr. Myers says, there was less need to wait out the summer season, when end users are typically on holiday and less focused on condo buying.

According to the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD, using data provided by RealNet Canada), 1,490 new condo units were sold throughout the Greater Toronto Area in July, up almost 20% from last year. "Forget the old conventions of a spring and fall market," says Stephen Dupuis, BILD's president and CEO. "The market's that much bigger now - it's active all the time."

Photo By: GalleryLoftsCA