Calgary housing market soars to new average sale price record for January

CALGARY — Calgary’s resale housing market had its best January for sales since 2008 as average prices also climbed to their highest level ever for the month.

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, total MLS sales in the city in January were 1,230, up 15.17 per cent from a year ago while the average sale price rose by 12.34 per cent cent to $439,671.

The previous record high for the average sale price in any January was in 2008 at $413,271.

“In today’s Calgary real estate market there are a number of significant factors that influence our housing sector. The growth within the energy sector is significant along with consumer confidence in the marketplace as well as steady economic performance,” said Kaitlyn Gottlieb, realtor with Century 21 Bamber Realty Ltd. in Calgary. “While these factors continue to increase home sales, should inventory continue to decline, pricing may continue to increase steadily, yet moderately. Although it is early in the year to make market predictions, if 2013 continues to bring good economic activity there is a great possibility that 2013 will exceed our expectations both in the Calgary real estate market and in Calgary’s outlying areas. While 2013 growth may be modest, we can still expect a positive market for this year.

“Alberta continues to fuel growth as a commodity-rich province and is expected to continue to support moderate price growth as we saw in 2012. The increased prices we have seen on single-family homes can partially be attributed to the record number of luxury homes sales we saw last year.”

In the single-family home market in Calgary, sales during January of 879 were up 15.20 per cent from last year and the average sale price rose by 12.74 per cent to $496,579.

The average sale price was the fifth highest ever for any month in the single-family market. The peak was $506,670 set in July 2007.

In the condo apartment category, sales of 204 for January were up 13.97 per cent from a year ago while the average sale price jumped by 13.09 per cent to $280,273. The condo townhouse sector saw sales increase by 16.67 per cent from a year ago to 147 transactions and the average price rise by 7.61 per cent to $320,590.

“Prices have improved in the Calgary market but as always it is important to keep some perspective on this,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB’s chief economist. “While January’s year-over-year increase seems significant, price recovery occurred in the spring months of 2012 under tighter market conditions and home prices leveled off for the remainder of the year.”

CREB also tracks the prices for what it calls typical properties sold. The overall benchmark price in the city rose by 8.35 per cent to $392,000. The single-family home benchmark price jumped by 9.01 per cent to $436,900. It rose by 7.49 per cent in the condo apartment category to $251,300 and it was up by 4.85 per cent in the condo townhouse category to $283,400.

“The employment gains achieved in previous years along with rising income, low mortgage rates and robust net migration levels has sustained demand for housing,” said Richard Cho, senior market analyst in Calgary for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. “Many buyers have benefited from Calgary’s growing economy, giving them opportunities to move into homeownership.


“Some of the resale activity will have likely come from renters as well. As the rental market has tightened with average rents moving up, some renters may have decided to purchase a starter home and take on a mortgage instead of paying rent.”

mtoneguzzi@calgaryherald.com

2013 CALGARY REAL ESTATE BOARD FORECAST

CREB® forecasts moderate sales, price growth

 The full forecast report is available here.

Calgary, Jan. 16, 2013 – The resale housing market in Calgary and area will see moderate sales and house price growth in 2013, CREB® said today at its annual forecast.

Sales growth in the city is expected to ease to 2.2 per cent this year, with house prices rising by 2.9 per cent.

“Slower growth trends in employment combined with lower migration estimates will impact sales growth across all resale sectors, and, as listings continue to decline, this will further dampen sales growth, particularly in the single-family market,” Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB®’s chief economist, said at the 2013 CREB® Forecast Conference & Tradeshow. “However, as the overall market remains well supplied, prices will continue to grow but not at the levels seen in 2012.”

In 2012, Calgary’s single-family market recorded sales growth of nearly 15 per cent. With a decline in the level of new single-family listings, that is expected to ease to 1.8 per cent this year. Prices are estimated to rise by three per cent.

Becky Walters, president of CREB®’s 2013 board of directors, said the city and surrounding areas are seeing good resale activity.

“We have a nice, balanced market, and it’s expected to see some growth this year,” Walters said. “Although some big markets in Canada are stumbling, Calgary is hot on the heels of a year of recovery, with the forecast saying the market is going to stay in positive territory.”

In the condominium market, sales are expected to increase by three per cent, with a moderate price appreciation of 2.4 per cent for condo apartments and 2.8 per cent for condo townhouses.

Although the prediction is for a “balanced” resale housing market, Lurie said there are numerous risks in the market.

“The largest risk in our market is related to concerns in the oil sector,” she said. “They are facing pipeline constraints and lack of access to more diverse markets, impacting the price they receive for their oil. If the discounts on our oil persist, this clearly could impact the job sector and, ultimately, the housing market.”

FAMILY SIZE & THE CONDO MARKET

Shrinking family sizes bode well for Canada’s condo sector
Garry Marr
Financial Post Sep 19, 2012

Maybe the condo industry knew something revealed to the rest of us only Wednesday — family sizes are shrinking.

Statistics Canada’s census data showed a dramatic increase in one-person households, up 10.4% from 2006 to 2011. For the first-time, more households were comprised of couples without children than with children. Family size also shrunk, with the average number of children dropping from 2.7 in 1961 to 1.9 in 2011.

All of this seems to bode well for a condominium sector which demands its occupants accept smaller quarters than they are historically used to.

“I think the housing stock has already responded,” said Don Lawby, chief executive of Century 21 Canada. “I think the major cities are the ones that reacted the fastest. There is a movement that has been forced by economics to smaller accommodation.”

Mr. Lawby notes if you’ve made the decision not to have children, as the statistics show some have, that means you are living a very different life and your housing needs are not the same.

“Of course, this all plays into the condo’s hand,” he says. “But there still will be people who desire to have a single family detached home where they are the king of the castle.”

The evidence already points to huge demand for high-rise units, both from buyers who want to live in the units and investors who rent them out. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said it expects 207,200 new housing starts with 123,700 in the multiple-unit category, predominantly made up of condominiums.

And while there are forecasts that the housing market is slowing, the Crown corporation is still predicting 193,100 starts next year with 109,000 coming from the multiple category. Condominium projects in Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto have driven the demand, CMHC says.

Brian Johnston, chief operating officer of Mattamy Corp., said the industry has been responding rather than leading. “I think there has been demand for smaller housing,” he said.

All of this might just confirm what the real estate industry has been saying all along — they were just giving the people what they want. “I see these comments that builders are building too many houses — builders don’t create new houses because it’s a good idea, they do it because there is demand,” says Mr. Johnston, noting bank financing requires high pre-sale levels.

Doug Norris, chief demographer at Environics Analytics, predicts the impact on real estate of the country’s changing demographics is just starting. “Part of the condo boom is driven by Boomers starting to downsize and move into new types of housing,” he said. “[Living in] the single family [home] starts to dwindle after 50.”

Though the impact of the Baby Boomers has yet to be seen, Mr. Norris said they will probably downsize more than their predecessors.

Craig Alexander, chief economist with Toronto-Dominion Bank, says while there definitely is more demand for condo-style living, the overall amount of housing stock being built is still above household formation.

“We can tell from the census numbers that we are building too many houses,” says Mr. Alexander, noting there were 189,000 net new households per year from 2006 to 2011. “Yet when we look at the pace of home construction it has been well over 200,000 and in fact it was 218,000 annualized starts so far in 2012.”

He says you can build past demographic requirements for a short period, perhaps catching up with a previous lag, but it has to stop at some point.

“On the one hand I am concerned about the condo market because when we look at the current pace of construction and compare it to a generally sustainable rate, it’s way too fast but over the long haul there is long-term strong demand for condos,” says Mr. Alexander.