SMOKIN' HOT

Calgary real estate industry heading for $9-billion plus year

MLS sales and average prices continue to rise

BY MARIO TONEGUZZI

CALGARY HERALD AUGUST 8, 2013

CALGARY — Calgary’s residential real estate market is on pace to record one of its highest ever yearly total dollar volume for MLS sales.

As of Tuesday, the local industry reached just over $6.8 billion in year-to-date transactions. That is more than $800 million ahead of last year’s pace which was just short of $6 billion as of Aug. 6, according to the Calgary Real Estate Board.

In 2012, total dollar volume for the entire year was slightly over $9.1 billion — only the third time in history it eclipsed the $9-billion mark. The other times were in 2006 at just under $9.9 billion and the record year of 2007 at $11.3 billion.

Christina Hagerty, a realtor with Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, said it’s been a busy real estate market in Calgary this year.

“We anticipated this activity in the beginning of the year with vacancy rates as low as one per cent in the inner core. Limited rental supply and increased rental rates, continued low interest rates with a positive influx of people transferring to Calgary, have made it an extremely buoyant real estate market,” said Hagerty.

“Inner-city condo prices in newer buildings are between $500 to $600 per square foot. There are competing offers from buyers ready to make a purchase when something of quality hits the market. This has caused a ripple effect into inner-city homes from both empty nesters downsizing, transferees, and condo sellers moving up. Many of our clients are renters moving into the buying market simply due to rental prices, investors seeing an opportunity or a significant amount of people moving here from across the country.”

She said home builders are picking up lots where they can find them and there have been several situations where lots are bidding for $100,000 to $200,000 above list prices in inner-city neighbourhoods.

“Alberta fundamentals remain sound and confidence in Alberta’s economy remains strong. It’s a testament to Calgary’s spirit and resilience that the post-flood cleanup has continued at its remarkable pace. Calgary has been leading the nation for the past few years and continues to grow,” added Hagerty.

According to CREB, there were 21,326 MLS sales in Calgary in 2012 with an average sale price of $427,912. In 2007, there were 26,709 sales with an average price of $423,145.

As of Wednesday, year-to-date, there have been 15,001 MLS transactions in Calgary, up 7.06 per cent from the same period a year ago and the average sale price has risen by 6.88 per cent to $457,499.

Becky Walters, CREB’s president, said pent-up demand is contributing to the continued rise in residential real estate sales in the city.

“This past year we saw 30 some thousand net migration to the city,” she said. “We’re getting more and more people moving here ... We’ve got fabulous job availability here.”

Another factor is that Calgary consistently rates high as one of the most affordable housing markets in the country due to its high level of personal income.

“People are seeing that there’s not a ton of inventory. So they’re getting out there making sure they get what they want,” added Walters.

SKY, CALGARY

New Telus Sky tower in downtown Calgary will feature office, retail, residential and arts space
By Jenna McMurray
Calgary Sun, July 04, 2013

Calgary’s skyline is growing up.

On Thursday, Telus announced its plans to construct a $400-million, 58-storey tower on the corner of 7 Ave. and Centre St.

Telus Sky, scheduled for completion in 2017, will be a mixed-use development, with office, retail and residential space.

“We are super excited to announce a new next generation tower that will undoubtedly transform Calgary’s skyline with one of the most beautiful and avant-garde architectural structures in the entire world,” said Telus president and CEO Darren Entwistle.

Included in the 750,000 sq.-ft. building will be 430,000 sq.-ft. of office space, with the telecommunications giant occupying 155,000 sq.-ft. of that.

There will also be 341 residential rental units and, with the building overtaking Art Central’s current location, it will include 5,500 sq.-ft. of public gallery space.

The tower will be built to LEED Platinum standards and once complete, is expected to use 80% less energy than some similar-sized developments, said Entwistle.

Sky will be 221 metres tall, shy of Calgary’s tallest tower, The Bow at 236 metres.

The building was designed by Copenhagen and New York-based Bjarke Ingels Group (BIG) and Dialog, along with their partners: Developer Westbank and real estate investment trust Allied Properties.

It will incorporate gargyoles from the old Herald building.

Architect Bjarke Ingels said the building’s mixed use dynamic is intended to help Calgary grow the energy in its downtown core.

“I think a lot of North American cities have suffered from the downtown becoming a corporate core where people only work and then they go home to the suburbs,” he said.

“As a result you get empty streets in the evenings and sleepy suburbs during the day and what the Telus Sky is doing is trying to provide a balanced program ... that gives you a much more 24/7 lively city.”
Ingels is hoping the tower will becoming a defining piece for the city.

“Calgary has so many very strong identity-defining elements, but they’re probably more in the landscapes and the culture of the city than they are in the architecture of the city,” he said,

“I think Calgary is maybe at a time right now where the very prosperous economy lends itself to a moment where Calgary can better define what kind of a city it is and wants to be.”

The development is expected to create 250 jobs for Calgarians.

On Thursday, Telus also announced another $250,000 through its Calgary Community Board and Community Action Teams in Alberta for local flood recovery efforts, bringing its total contribution so far to $2 million.

CHECK OUT THE VIDEO:
http://www.calgarysun.com/2013/07/04/new-telus-sky-tower-in-downtown-calgary-will-feature-office-retail-residential-and-arts-space

ONE UP

Canada’s new home prices tick up 1%, led by Calgary 
By Greg Quinn
Bloomberg News 13/07/11

Canada’s new home price index rose in May led by Calgary and cities in Ontario, the government statistics agency said.

The 0.1% national gain was led by a 0.9% increase in Calgary, Statistics Canada said Thursday in Ottawa. Prices also rose 0.6% in the Ontario cities of St. Catharines-Niagara, Sudbury and Thunder Bay.

Economists predicted the index would rise 0.2% on the month, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey with nine responses. From a year earlier, new home prices increased 1.8% in May.

Other reports this week have shown housing-market strength as officials warn consumers not to become overextended with mortgage debt. Building permits rose a fifth month in May while housing starts fell less than economists predicted in June.

Thursday’s data showed prices in Toronto, the nation’s largest city by population, increased 0.2%. Montreal, the second largest, saw house prices climb 0.3% while those in Vancouver, the third-largest, fell 0.2%.

SHINE ON

Calgary sets record with 4 MLS sales over $4 million in one month 

Luxury home market continues to shine
By Mario Toneguzzi 

Calgary Herald July 9, 2013

CALGARY — For the first time ever, four homes priced at more than $4 million on the MLS market have sold in one month in Calgary, the Herald has learned.

The Calgary Real Estate Board has confirmed the record, which eclipsed the previous mark of two homes sold at that price point in June 2008.

In the first week of July, the sales at more than $4 million included homes in Britannia ($4.45 million), Elbow Park/Glencoe ($4 million) and Mount Royal ($4.645 million).

Then on Monday a home in Bel Aire sold for $4.45 million.

It’s another indication that the luxury home market is continuing to shine in Calgary.

According to Mike Fotiou, associate broker with First Place Realty, there have been 18 homes sold for more than $1 million in the first week of July.

Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist at CREB, said year-to-date luxury home sales represent 3.2 per cent of the total sales, up from last year’s share of 2.5 per cent.

“Consumers have more choice in luxury homes with a rise in the number of new listings in this category, helping support the sales growth,” she said. “However, more choice has contributed to median price growth in the luxury sector to be relatively weaker than city wide price growth. The median value of the sold transactions have trended up from the low of the recession and are slightly higher than levels recorded last year, however, they still remain below levels recorded during the 2007 period.

“Despite some economic setbacks, long-term economic prospects remain relatively strong in our city. Wages continue to rise while mortgage rates remain at low levels — all of which are supporting demand growth. Furthermore, the tight supply levels in the lower price ranges have reduced the time on market and supported relatively stronger price growth in this sector, potentially offering an opportunity for those consumers looking to upgrade.”

Last month, a home in Crescent Heights, listed by John Hripko, a realtor with Royal LePage Foothills, sold for $11.1 million — a new high for the Calgary MLS market. That home was owned by former Shaw executive Jim Shaw.

According to Fotiou, there were 74 luxury home sales in June, setting a record for the most $1-million plus sales for the month of June. The all-time monthly record for luxury home sales was established in May at 84.

Last year was a record of 544 luxury home sales in the city.

According to CREB, there were 394 sales of $1 million or more in the first six months of this year compared with 299 for the same period last year.

The mid-year total so far this year has already surpassed year-end totals for 2010 (365), 2009 (337), and 2008 (369), pointed out Fotiou.

Photo By: s@@m

RISE AND SHINE

Low inventory, high demand pushing Calgary house prices upward
Royal LePage forecasts prices to continue to rise

By Mario Toneguzzi 

Calgary Herald July 9, 2013

A combination of low inventory and strong demand has driven prices of all housing types in Calgary higher, according to a report released Tuesday by Royal LePage.

The real estate firm, in its House Price Survey and Market Survey Forecast, said that year-over-year in the second quarter detached bungalows increased by 5.9 per cent to $457,889, condominiums were up six per cent, to $261,933, and standard two-storey homes rose by 6.7 per cent to $453,789.

“Inventory is low across all categories right now, and this is driving prices up,” said Ted Zaharko, broker and owner of Royal LePage Foothills, in a news release. “When a listing comes up, there is a swarm of potential buyers, and multiple offers are common. Condominiums are profiting from the spillover effect — buyers who are having difficulty breaking into the tight bungalow market are moving to the condominium market, to the point where inventory is tightening there as well.”

Zaharko said the recent flooding in Calgary may cause some “irregular activity” in the short-term but it won’t have a long-term impact on sales or prices.

He said prices are expected to continue to rise in Calgary as are overall sales.

“Unit sales would be greater if more inventory were available, but until additional inventory comes onto the market, growth in unit sales will be somewhat tempered,” he said.

Nationally, in the second quarter, standard two-storey homes and detached bungalows both showed a year-over-year average price increase of 2.7 per cent to $419,614 and $386,547, respectively. Average prices for standard condominiums rose 1.2 per cent to $248,750.

Royal LePage is forecasting average house prices in Calgary to rise year-over-year by 6.5 per cent this year to $439,000 while sales will increase by 3.3 per cent to 27,500 transactions.

Across the country, the real estate firm is forecasting a three per cent jump in prices to $374,650 with a decline of 5.0 per cent in sales to 430,500 units.

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, year-to-date until July 8, there have been 12,763 MLS sales in the city, up 4.71 per cent from the same period last year. The median price has increased by 4.99 per cent to $400,000 while the average price has risen by 6.75 per cent to $458,371.

AGE AND CONDO DEMAND

Condo demand stronger among older Canadians: BMO
Business News Network May 30, 2013

Think the condo market is a young man's game? Think again, a report from BMO says the demand among potential homebuyers for purchasing a condo is greater for Canadians over the age of 50.

Among prospective buyers over the age 50, about 30 percent said they were willing to buy a condo over the next five years, compared to just 17 percent for Canadians under the age 50, the survey said.

The condo market in Canada's cities is also being divided into the haves and have nots, the survey noted.

In both Toronto and Calgary the appetite for buying a condo is on the rise, while demand is falling in Montreal and Vancouver.

About one-third of prospective buyers surveyed in Toronto said they were planning to buy a condo in the next five years, an increase of 11 points from a survey conducted in the fall.

In Calgary, 33 percent of buyers said they were considering purchasing a condo in that time period, up 8 percent from a previous survey.

But the story in Vancouver and Montreal is the complete opposite, with the percentage of buyers thinking of purchasing a condo falling to 28 percent from 33 percent in Vancouver and down 3 points to 24 percent in Montreal.

"Condos remain an affordable alternative to the pricey detached market in some major cities," said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. "For example, a typical Toronto condo today requires just 22 percent of a median family's income to service; Vancouver condos - while more expensive - are still affordable at 28 percent of income.

The report from BMO comes amid a debate among economists and other investors whether the country's housing market is headed for a U.S.-style crash. While many economists on Bay Street say the country is moving towards a "soft landing," a number of investors say that call is too optimistic.

The condo market in major cities such as Toronto and Vancouver, has attracted significant negative attention.

On Wednesday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in its twice-yearly Economic Outlook warned of a potential for a pullback in housing prices in Canada. The OECD said Canada is one of three countries in the 34-member group where "houses appear overvalued but prices are still rising." The Toronto condominium market is the agency's "number one concern."

While a dramatic collapse in the housing market is unlikely, Jarrey said it can't be ruled out completely.

"Nobody saw the huge decline in the United State coming either five or six years ago – not nobody, but very few – and we could be having something very similar but it's not a very likely outcome," he said.

KEEP CALM AND BOOM

‘It’s boom time in Alberta’: New home construction at a five-year high (graphic)
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald June 10, 2013

CALGARY — New home construction picked up in the Calgary region in May with Alberta’s level at a five-year high.

It’s a sign that the housing market is heating up.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reported Monday that total starts in the Calgary census metropolitan area reached 1,078 units during the month, which was an increase from 949 in May 2012.

“The trend of total housing starts increased slightly in May, due to strong construction in both the single-detached and multi-family markets,” said Richard Cho, CMHC’s senior market analyst for Calgary.

Multi-family starts rose to 519 in May from 466 a year ago while the single-detached market saw starts jump to 559 from 483 last year.

“While softer energy prices may be moderating overall economic growth this year, it appears that home builders didn’t receive the memo. Judging by the most recent statistics, it’s boom time in Alberta,” said Todd Hirsch, chief economist at ATB Financial.

Builders started construction on 41,438 new homes in Alberta in May — the highest this year and the first time since early 2008 that the figure has risen above the 40,000 mark.

“What’s more, the trend over the last several months clearly suggests that the housing market is heating up,” added Hirsch. “Between May 2012 and May of this year, housing starts are 14.1 per cent higher than they were in the previous 12-month period.

“What’s causing this boom in home construction isn’t any big mystery: population growth. Even if overall economic growth has slowed somewhat, the inflow of people into our province hasn’t.”

The latest Labour Force Survey, released last week, points to a surge in the labour force, which has grown by 59,400, or 2.6 per cent, over the last 12-months.

“Interprovincial and international migration to Alberta is driving some of the demand for new homes. High wages, low unemployment and a younger population are also contributing factors,” said Hirsch.

“The strong housing starts number ... is supported by another figure from Friday’s employment report — the number of construction jobs is also rising. Even if jobs in the energy patch and manufacturing have eased back a bit, employment in construction continues to provide some great work opportunities.”

Robert Kavcic, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets, said multi-unit housing starts in Canada came storming back in May “after falling precipitously through the winter months.”

“Still, the six-month trend in overall Canadian housing starts sits very close to demographic demand, further hinting at a soft landing,” he said.

Total Canadian housing starts rose by 13.8 per cent in May to 200,178 annualized units, the strongest pace in six months, added Kavcic.

The multi-unit segment rose by 22 per cent.

He said Alberta posted a modest gain, and activity in the province now sits at the highest level in five years.

“With the six-month moving average now more in line with the rate of household formation, May’s sharp jump in the pace of new home construction is unlikely to be sustained,” said Dina Ignjatovic, economist with TD Economics, about the national picture. “Indeed, slower price growth in the housing market could lead to lower homebuilding activity in the coming quarters. Moreover, the overbuilding that has taken place over the last 10 years could lead to new home construction falling below this demographic need for a period of time. This should, however, help to prevent further overbuilding and a consequential sharp correction in the housing market.

“Overall, we expect new home starts to gradually trend down over the next 12-18 months, suggesting that the Canadian economy will not be able to count on residential investment to prop up growth over that time frame.”

For Graphs:
http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Calgary+region+housing+starts+trend+upwards/8503723/story.html