BEST IN SHOW

Calgary year-over-year housing sales growth best in Canada
Near 15% hike in MLS transactions
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald October 15, 2012

CALGARY — While most of Canada’s major centres recorded year-over-year MLS sales declines in September, Calgary went against the tide with the highest annual growth rate in the country.

According to the Canadian Real Estate Association, MLS sales in Calgary rose by 14.8 per cent from September 2011 to 2,054 transactions.

In contrast, sales across the country fell by 15.1 per cent to 32,192.

But the average MLS sale price in Calgary dipped by 0.9 per cent in September to $402,756.

Nationally, the average price rose by 1.1 per cent to $355,777.

CREA said Monday that more than half of all local markets in the country posted sales declines of at least 10 per cent on an annual basis.

“New mortgage rules continue to keep a lid on national sales activity,” said Wayne Moen, CREA’s president.

The organization’s chief economist, Gregory Klump, said national activity is likely to remain down from year-ago levels over the fourth quarter of this year.

“In the shadow of the latest mortgage rule changes, activity has ratcheted down from higher levels seen during the fourth quarter last year,” he said. “While some first-time homebuyers may no longer qualify for mortgage financing under the new rules, it is likely that many others are stepping back and reassessing how much house they can realistically afford, which is one of the things new mortgage rules were designed to do.”

In Alberta, MLS sales rose by 7.7 per cent from last year to 4,714 while the average price increased slightly by 0.2 per cent to $355,127.

“While the 15 per cent year-over-year drop in sales suggests Canadian housing is making like Felix Baumgartner, falling past the speed of sound, the details are not nearly as weak, and still suggest that the housing market is simply gliding to a lower altitude,” said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist with BMO Capital Markets.

On Monday, CREA also released its MLS Home Price Index. The national index rose 3.9 per cent year-over-year in September. This was the fifth time in as many months that the annual gain shrank and marks the slowest rate of increase since May 2011.

Regina led the country with a 14.2 per cent hike followed by Calgary at 6.5 per cent.

CALGARY DREAMIN'

Why Calgary is an entrepreneur’s dream
By: Jameson Berkow
Financial Post Oct 14, 2012

CALGARY — Naheed Nenshi, the mayor of Calgary, thinks he knows why his city’s entrepreneurial culture is becoming so robust, despite the cold winters Calgarians endure.

“The line I usually use when people ask me why Calgary has fostered such an entrepreneurial culture is this is a place where nobody cares who your daddy is or where you went to school. I say it so often that it sounds a bit trite, but I don’t think it is true everywhere,” he said, gazing briefly at the September sunshine bathing his private city hall veranda to reflect on his answer before continuing.

“It is also a very interesting and weird unintended consequence of the way our downtown has been built,” he adds, referring to Calgary’s Plus-15 network of elevated walkways connecting the city’s skyscrapers.

The walkways allow office dwellers to attend meetings in other buildings without having to brave the city’s bitter prairie winters. “Our built environment has actually in some ways molded our business culture,” Mr. Nenshi said.

Calgary’s entrepreneurial culture is even easier to spot than the hundreds of steel and glass connections crisscrossing the city’s core. It hits new Calgarians like myself almost instantly; that infectious feeling of limitless raw potential, of broken barriers to success and endless possibilities.

This is a city of risk takers, of dreamers and of visionary builders. All of these enviable traits have, however, been relatively unknown in the rest of Canada, until now.

In a survey by Canadian Federation of Independent Businesses for the Financial Post, Calgary ranked as the 13th most entrepreneurial city in Canada this year. Not exactly a statistic to brag about, although it is a dramatic jump from No. 35 last year.

“The story on Calgary is getting out,” said Mike Fotheringham, research manager at Calgary Economic Development. “People across the country are starting to understand what is going on in this city.”

Bankruptcy rates here are among the lowest in the country at just 1%, and have fallen every year since 2002. Retail sales growth also tends to be more than double the national average of 3%, reflecting Calgary’s growing affluence.

“There is a sense that if you’ve got an idea, this is the place to make it happen and I think the stats reveal exactly that,” Mr. Fotheringham said.

What the statistics do not reveal is another sense, of the opportunities here being as rich and thick as the bitumen that powers Calgary’s massive oil towers. The sense is not only that such opportunities exist, but that achieving even the loftiest of them can be done without the vast support networks required elsewhere.

One of the largest buyout deals in Canadian corporate history — the $19-billion Suncor Energy Inc. takeover of Petro-Canada — was struck by four men sitting in a small conference room in a posh downtown hotel.

“Other steps in the acquisition had to be taken, but things were essentially wrapped up in that meeting in the Palliser, working out the details with no lawyers, accountants, advisors or second guessers anywhere in sight,” Rick George, longtime Suncor chief executive, wrote in his newly released memoir Sun Rise. “I honestly don’t believe an agreement of this magnitude could have proceeded as it did … in any other city. The city of Calgary has a tradition of openness and trust, placing as much value on a handshake as on any multi-page contract.”

That tradition extends well beyond the gargantuan oil and gas players. When Victoria MacLean co-founded Startup Calgary a little more than two years ago, she counted 45 small technology-focused companies in the city. Her latest count totaled 162.

“The people here get great exposure to big data, to enterprise-level data, so they can really start to see and identify solutions for big problems here,” said the outgoing president of Startup Calgary.

Ms. MacLean is leaving to focus full time on BeauCoo, her latest startup which seeks to build a social network for women of similar body types to share style and shopping information. The company raised a $1.1-million seed funding round from Calgary-based Zinc Ventures last month and plans to launch its mobile app in a few days.

Ms. MacLean considers herself lucky, because early-stage funding is still an issue for Calgary startups with most of North America still standing between them and Toronto, where most of the country’s sources of venture capital and angel investors remain.

“Entrepreneurs will always complain about a lack of angel investors because that is just a translation of ‘nobody likes my idea,’ ” said Mayor Nenshi, who was a business professor at Mount Royal University before entering politics. “The real issue is the second and third rounds of financing.”

That has long been the issue for startups nationwide and remains one of the primary reasons why many Canadian small businesses end up being acquired by larger foreign entities before they reach their full potential. Yet it is precisely that constant struggle for recognition — and the cash that comes with it — that helps Calgary entrepreneurs to stand out and pushes them to achieve.

“There is something of an insecurity complex that runs through the city,” said Alex Middleton, chair of TEDxYYC, the local chapter of a global organization famous for hosting world-class discussions in world-class cities. “That allows you to have more of a clean slate here than in other cities. You really can come to Calgary and reinvent yourself in that ‘maverick’ sense.”

Despite its growing stature, Calgary is still not Alberta’s most entrepreneurial major city. Edmonton scored 8th in CFIB’s 2012 rankings of Canada’s most entrepreneurial cities and even in 2011 it was 11, still two spots higher than its southern neighbour’s most recent title.

“Calgary culture-wise is moving towards a big city mentality, whereas in Edmonton you have more of an independent vibe,” said Ken Bautista, co-founder and chief executive of Startup Edmonton. “It isn’t about being a big city though, it is about being a great one.”

Photo By: Portraitsteve

OIL RICHES

Alberta’s oil riches driving Canada’s economy: BMO
By: Lauren Krugel
Canadian Press Oct 9, 2012

CALGARY — Canada’s economic growth is being driven by resource-rich Western provinces, according to a Bank of Montreal report released Tuesday.

Alberta leads the pack, with the bank predicting 3.5% real GDP growth this year, falling back a bit to 2.9% in 2013.

“The energy sector remains the key driver of economic activity in the province, with crude bitumen production up 16% year-over-year through the first half of the year, and the Energy Resources Conservation Board expecting oil sands output to more than double by 2021,” said economist Robert Kavcic.

The energy sector’s strength has attracted workers from elsewhere in Canada to Alberta, which has the country’s lowest unemployment rate at 4.4%.

But BMO Kavcic says the industry faces some risk.

“Cost pressures could again pick up, though oil sands operations are generally viewed as economical at prices above US$80 (per barrel),” he said.

“Also, wrangling over new pipeline capacity continues.”

Production from the Bakken, a massive oil deposit that stretches through parts of Montana, North Dakota and Saskatchewan, is filling up existing pipelines and causing Canadian producers to get a lower price for the heavy crude they produce.


“Estimates suggest that production in Western Canada could be negatively impacted by 2015/16 if there is not enough new pipeline capacity put in place.”

BMO says Canada’s overall real GDP growth is expected to be 2.2% in 2012, with the Western provinces all topping that rate.

Saskatchewan, where oil and gas extraction and potash and uranium mining are big economic drivers, is expected to see growth of 3.1% this year.

For British Columbia, it sees real GDP growth of 2.5% and for Manitoba, growth of 2.6%.

Further east it’s a different story. BMO sees Ontario posting growth of two per cent and the economies of Quebec and the Atlantic provinces growing at less than two per cent in 2012.

The report says fiscal restraint, the high loonie and sluggish U.S. demand are putting a damper on growth in Central Canada.

Kavcic noted some cause for optimism in Ontario’s auto sector.

“Auto producers continue to invest in North America and, despite a strong currency and higher labour costs compared to the southern U.S. and Mexico, Ontario is no exception,” he said.

“Toyota, for example, is expanding production at its Woodstock assembly plant — a project worth about $100-million and 400 jobs. Plus, the CAW and Big Three automakers recently reached new four-year contract agreements. Output in the auto sector was up a solid 20 per cent year-over-year through August.”

Also Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund trimmed its global growth forecasts in its quarterly economic outlook.

The IMF predicts the global economy will expand 3.3% this year, down from the estimate of 3.5% growth it issued in July. Its forecast for growth in 2013 is 3.6%, down from 3.9% three months ago and 4.1% in April.

Photo By: inertiachick

FUEL EXPANSION

Calgary and Edmonton to lead Canadian economic growth
Energy-related investment to fuel expansion
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald September 18, 2012

CALGARY — Calgary and Edmonton are forecast to be the fastest growing economies in Canada over the next four years, according to the Conference Board of Canada’s Metropolitan Outlook-Autumn 2012 released Tuesday.

“Energy-related investment in Alberta is expected to stay vibrant throughout the next four years. For instance, about $29-billion worth of energy-related projects are now underway in the province, and nearly $86-billion worth of projects are proposed for the future,” said Mario Lefebvre, Director, Centre for Municipal Studies, for the board.

“All this investment will continue to be a boon to Calgary’s economy, which remains the services hub of the province’s energy sector.”

The board is forecasting Calgary to have the best economic growth in the country over 2013-2016 at an average of 3.7 per cent followed by Edmonton’s average annual real GDP growth at 3.5 per cent during the forecast period.

For this year, the board is predicting Edmonton will lead the country with 4.6 per cent growth followed by Calgary at 3.8 per cent.

“Without a doubt, I expect that Alberta is going to be the envy of the country moving forward into closing out 2012 and into 2013,” said Ben Brunnen, chief economist with the Calgary Chamber of Commerce. “While the growth will be the strongest in the country, particularly for our cities, that doesn’t necessarily mean that we’re in great economic times.

“There are some storm clouds on the horizon. I expect fully we’ll see a recession in Europe. The Chinese economy is slowing substantially. And the U.S. has its election coming forward. What this means is there’s going to be a dampening on economic growth globally and as a consequence it’s going to affect Canada. That said, the investment in the province has been strong to date and should continue to be strong.”

The board said Calgary is coming off a “very strong performance” in 2011 with economic growth at 5.0 per cent. The strong growth expected during the forecast period will be “helped along by strong consumer spending and spinoff benefits from the energy sector.”

Employment growth is forecast for 4.1 per cent this year in Calgary followed by annual growth rates of 1.9 per cent, 2.6 per cent, 2.5 per cent, and 2.1 per cent from 2013 to 2016. And retail sales are forecast to grow by 9.2 per cent this year followed by growth of 6.2 per cent, 5.3 per cent, 5.3 per cent and 4.8 per cent during the forecast period.

Also on Tuesday, a report by TD Economics said Canada will likely experience a shift from household and government-led growth towards exports and investment, but global headwinds appear to have delayed this transition until the first half of 2013.

In the meantime, the report said, the economy will be stuck in neutral and Canada’s economic expansion will be constrained to a pace near two per cent.

“In the first half of 2012, governments constrained their spending while households pared back their rate of borrowing and spent at a miserly pace. While most major housing markets have held up reasonably well, there are signs — most notably in Vancouver — that markets have reached a peak,” said TD Bank Group’s chief economist Craig Alexander. “And in the near term, the slowdown is expected to broaden across the country, following the implementation of tighter rules on insured-mortgage lending this past summer.

“Canada’s economy has turned out a relatively strong performance in recent years, but the growth has not been broadly based and imbalances have amassed. On the plus side, governments and households, which have been pulling Canada’s economy along by the coat-tails for years, have begun to address their debt challenges. Recent changes to mortgage borrowing rules will help to address part of the over-valuation in housing markets. Going forward, it will be equally critical for the economy to transition to more export and investment-led growth.”

Photo By : Bulliver

FAMILY SIZE & THE CONDO MARKET

Shrinking family sizes bode well for Canada’s condo sector
Garry Marr
Financial Post Sep 19, 2012

Maybe the condo industry knew something revealed to the rest of us only Wednesday — family sizes are shrinking.

Statistics Canada’s census data showed a dramatic increase in one-person households, up 10.4% from 2006 to 2011. For the first-time, more households were comprised of couples without children than with children. Family size also shrunk, with the average number of children dropping from 2.7 in 1961 to 1.9 in 2011.

All of this seems to bode well for a condominium sector which demands its occupants accept smaller quarters than they are historically used to.

“I think the housing stock has already responded,” said Don Lawby, chief executive of Century 21 Canada. “I think the major cities are the ones that reacted the fastest. There is a movement that has been forced by economics to smaller accommodation.”

Mr. Lawby notes if you’ve made the decision not to have children, as the statistics show some have, that means you are living a very different life and your housing needs are not the same.

“Of course, this all plays into the condo’s hand,” he says. “But there still will be people who desire to have a single family detached home where they are the king of the castle.”

The evidence already points to huge demand for high-rise units, both from buyers who want to live in the units and investors who rent them out. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said it expects 207,200 new housing starts with 123,700 in the multiple-unit category, predominantly made up of condominiums.

And while there are forecasts that the housing market is slowing, the Crown corporation is still predicting 193,100 starts next year with 109,000 coming from the multiple category. Condominium projects in Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto have driven the demand, CMHC says.

Brian Johnston, chief operating officer of Mattamy Corp., said the industry has been responding rather than leading. “I think there has been demand for smaller housing,” he said.

All of this might just confirm what the real estate industry has been saying all along — they were just giving the people what they want. “I see these comments that builders are building too many houses — builders don’t create new houses because it’s a good idea, they do it because there is demand,” says Mr. Johnston, noting bank financing requires high pre-sale levels.

Doug Norris, chief demographer at Environics Analytics, predicts the impact on real estate of the country’s changing demographics is just starting. “Part of the condo boom is driven by Boomers starting to downsize and move into new types of housing,” he said. “[Living in] the single family [home] starts to dwindle after 50.”

Though the impact of the Baby Boomers has yet to be seen, Mr. Norris said they will probably downsize more than their predecessors.

Craig Alexander, chief economist with Toronto-Dominion Bank, says while there definitely is more demand for condo-style living, the overall amount of housing stock being built is still above household formation.

“We can tell from the census numbers that we are building too many houses,” says Mr. Alexander, noting there were 189,000 net new households per year from 2006 to 2011. “Yet when we look at the pace of home construction it has been well over 200,000 and in fact it was 218,000 annualized starts so far in 2012.”

He says you can build past demographic requirements for a short period, perhaps catching up with a previous lag, but it has to stop at some point.

“On the one hand I am concerned about the condo market because when we look at the current pace of construction and compare it to a generally sustainable rate, it’s way too fast but over the long haul there is long-term strong demand for condos,” says Mr. Alexander.

MARKET CONFIDENCE

Resale condo pace reflects 'confidence'
By Josh Skapin
Calgary Herald September 7, 2012

Total sales of resale condos in Calgary continued to climb in August, rising 19 per cent compared to the same month last year, says the Calgary Real Estate Board.

There were 556 sales of apartments and townhouses last month, up from 468 transactions in August 2011, says the board.

The biggest increase came in townhouses, which saw a 31 per cent hike in resale activity last month compared to the same month last year.

But the average resale price for townhouses in Calgary in August was $281,941, 3.45 per cent lower than the same period last year.

“Some continue to foresee a scenario where price declines are looming in the local housing market, especially given national trends,” says chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie in a news release.

“There is no question economic concerns can threaten our housing recovery. However, to date, Calgary housing market consumers are exhibiting confidence evidenced through the pick-up in sales activity across all housing types.”

While townhouse prices are down, the average resale price of condo apartments was 7.22-per-cent higher last month than in 2011, rising to $281,941 per unit.

The area in Calgary with the highest condo apartment and townhouse resale activity in the city last month was in Zone C, which roughly corresponds to the city’s southwest.

Not only did the area have 288 deals, it also had the highest average resale price at $314,467.

Zone A, which roughly corresponds to the city’s northwest, saw the second highest sales totals and average price.

The average price in Zone A was $294,867 for 155 sales last month.

Zone D, which translates to southeast Calgary, had 66 transactions last month at an average rate of $287,340.

At the same time, Zone B, which covers northeast, Calgary saw 47 units change hands at an average price of $172,234.

DID YOU KNOW?

The biggest increase in condo apartment resale activity in Calgary has come in the $200,000 to $299,999 price range, says the Calgary Real Estate Board.

To Aug.1, 1,132 units in this price range changed hands in Calgary, up from only 949 sales during the same month last year.

The $200,000 to $299,999 price range led all condo sales in the city in August, alone, at 151.

THE SEVEN BEST

Canada among 7 best housing markets in the world
Mamta Badkar
Business Insider Sep 5, 2012

While much of the world is seeing home prices depreciate, there are a few countries where home prices are on the rise.Canada ranked among Germany, Switzerland and Hong Kong in the top 7 housing markets.

Global Property Guide’s latest report shows, however, that even the strongest housing markets are losing momentum as the economy falters.

Of the 39 countries tracked by GPG quarterly house prices fell in 25 countries and climbed in just 13.

We published the worst housing markets Tuesday, and today we’ve highlighted the 7 best housing markets in the world, based on year-over-year home price changes.

Canada ranked among Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong in the top 7.

Home prices in Hong Kong were up 3.01 percent year-over-year (YoY) and 6.85 percent quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) in Q2 2012

Home prices in Canada were up 4.06% YoY and 1.59% QoQ in Q2 2012

Home prices in Switzerland were up 4.86 percent YoY but down 0.54 percent QoQ in Q2 2012

Home prices in Germany were up 5.24 percent YoY but down 2.02 percent QoQ in Q2 2012



Home prices in Delhi, India were up 6.23 percent YoY nut down 1.09 percent QoQ in Q2 2012

Home prices in Norway were up 6.26 percent YoY and up 2.98 percent QoQ in Q2 2012



Home prices in Sao Paulo, Brazil were up 15.56 percent YoY and 2.38 percent QoQ in Q2 2012

Photo By: cityNnature