TRY NOT TO BE SHORT SIGHTED

Realtors take long-term view, see real estate as 'strong investment'
Mario Toneguzzi, 
Calgary Herald February 23, 2015

Calgary’s housing market is the hot topic of conversation these days not only in the city but across the country.

The once-sizzling real estate sector has cooled tremendously thanks to a precipitous decline in oil prices and that has people, from economists to realtors to homeowners and potential buyers, speculating and wondering what that will do to housing prices.

And there is no lack of opinion on the topic, ranging from forecasts of a small increase in average prices for the year to a 10 per cent or more decline. MLS sales are expected to fall dramatically this year – TD recently said by as much as nearly 50 per cent – with new listings rising at a steep pace.

“There is no surprise that the range is so vast. Trying to forecast an average sale price change . . . in today’s market is impossible,” said Don Campbell, senior analyst with the Real Estate Investment Network. “Why? Simply because the most important variable is not known.

“How long oil will stay under $70 and how confident the oil industry is about it levelling at that number.  Without that knowledge, real estate market price forecasting is mathematically impossible.”

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, year-to-date up to and including Saturday there have been 1,758 MLS sales, down 37.17  per cent from the same period last year, while new listings have risen by 24.66 per cent to 5,551. The average sale price has dropped by 2.17 per cent to $463,938.

Since 1990, the annual average MLS sale price has fallen from the previous year only four times – 1991, by 1.08 per cent; 1995, by 0.47 per cent; 2008, by 2.46 per cent; and 2009, by 4.67 per cent.

The biggest annual hike was recorded in 2006 when prices soared by 39.78 per cent from the previous year to $358,385 and then jumped another 18.25 per cent in 2007 to $423,798.

According to the Conference Board of Canada, the city’s economic growth in 2006 was 7.0 per cent – the second highest rate of growth in the past 25 years behind only the 7.9 per cent recorded in 1997.

Christina Hagerty, a realtor with RE/MAX Realty Professionals, who started in the business in 1991, said real estate in Calgary has always been a good long-term investment.

“In fact, if you look at real estate values over the course of 10 years, all have performed double to triple their value right across the board, not just in the inner core,” said Hagerty, who specializes in that area.

“So the old-timers like us who have seen a couple of decades of activity aren’t fretting.”

Hagerty said the current rental vacancy rate in the city remains low. That combined with some of the lowest interest rates in history and still good overall consumer confidence will keep the real estate market healthy.

“I would say based on this, housing prices should continue to see a slight positive gain. Unless there are reasons for sellers to take a substantial decrease, most would not do so.  Why would you want to lose 10 per cent on your real estate value when you can lease out for a premium based on such low vacancy rates?,” she said.

Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist with CREB, said there is a wide range of price expectations for this year because there is a significant amount of uncertainty regarding the duration of lower oil prices and ultimately the impact on employment.

“Regardless if you look at average, median or benchmark prices, annual home prices within city limits declined in 2008 and 2009,” she said. “During that time several global economies were in a recession. In 2009 Calgary saw GDP contract by nearly four per cent, net migration fell, full-time jobs were being lost, there was a large amount of newly-constructed product available, and the impact of the financial crises created several changes to the lending industry.

“This year the housing market has seen sales activity fall, likely a result of reduced consumer confidence in the market.  At the same time, listings have continued to rise, driving up inventories. If this continues, this will place downward pressure on pricing. However, to reach the double-digit decline rates in housing prices, this would assume that the energy prices would stay low for this year with not much upside prospect into 2016, causing  job losses, low levels of migration, and persistent excess supply in the housing market.”

For prices to remain stable, said Lurie, the city would have to see stability in the employment sector and the pace of new listings slow.

“With this much uncertainty I think it is prudent to consider there are several factors that can drive the prices. Based on current expectations, prices are likely to remain at or just below levels recorded near the end of last year,” she added.

Hagerty said Calgary is a young city and many people are not used to the volatility of the oilpatch and its relation to the real estate market.

“So those of us who have been around for a couple of decades aren’t concerned,” said Hagerty. “We aren’t day-trading real estate. We get to live in this tangible asset as it grows in value. Savvy investors are sitting back hopeful the next seller will think the sky is falling so they can seize the opportunity. They know that Calgary’s a sure thing with strong fundamentals that make it a great investment.”

Campbell said real estate continues to be a strong long-term investment and income replacement.

“We have always believed that real estate is a safe long-term play. The numbers don’t lie – since prices have begun to be tracked, they have increased,” he said. “Of course we have seen short-term fluctuation with dips and corrections, but in the long term the arrow has always pointed up.

“Calgarians have hosted many an oil boom party in the past and have learned of these inevitable dips. However, because the province’s population, and the city itself, has grown at record numbers over the last two years, we have a large cohort of the population who have never experienced a Calgary ebb and flow.  That has led to an increase in knee-jerk response in the market as shown by the dramatic increase in listings.”

He said it is at about this point that strategic Calgary investors start to hunt for good deals, knowing that when the market recovers – be it in one or two years – that it will prove to be the ultimate buying window.

OIL RICHES

Alberta’s oil riches driving Canada’s economy: BMO
By: Lauren Krugel
Canadian Press Oct 9, 2012

CALGARY — Canada’s economic growth is being driven by resource-rich Western provinces, according to a Bank of Montreal report released Tuesday.

Alberta leads the pack, with the bank predicting 3.5% real GDP growth this year, falling back a bit to 2.9% in 2013.

“The energy sector remains the key driver of economic activity in the province, with crude bitumen production up 16% year-over-year through the first half of the year, and the Energy Resources Conservation Board expecting oil sands output to more than double by 2021,” said economist Robert Kavcic.

The energy sector’s strength has attracted workers from elsewhere in Canada to Alberta, which has the country’s lowest unemployment rate at 4.4%.

But BMO Kavcic says the industry faces some risk.

“Cost pressures could again pick up, though oil sands operations are generally viewed as economical at prices above US$80 (per barrel),” he said.

“Also, wrangling over new pipeline capacity continues.”

Production from the Bakken, a massive oil deposit that stretches through parts of Montana, North Dakota and Saskatchewan, is filling up existing pipelines and causing Canadian producers to get a lower price for the heavy crude they produce.


“Estimates suggest that production in Western Canada could be negatively impacted by 2015/16 if there is not enough new pipeline capacity put in place.”

BMO says Canada’s overall real GDP growth is expected to be 2.2% in 2012, with the Western provinces all topping that rate.

Saskatchewan, where oil and gas extraction and potash and uranium mining are big economic drivers, is expected to see growth of 3.1% this year.

For British Columbia, it sees real GDP growth of 2.5% and for Manitoba, growth of 2.6%.

Further east it’s a different story. BMO sees Ontario posting growth of two per cent and the economies of Quebec and the Atlantic provinces growing at less than two per cent in 2012.

The report says fiscal restraint, the high loonie and sluggish U.S. demand are putting a damper on growth in Central Canada.

Kavcic noted some cause for optimism in Ontario’s auto sector.

“Auto producers continue to invest in North America and, despite a strong currency and higher labour costs compared to the southern U.S. and Mexico, Ontario is no exception,” he said.

“Toyota, for example, is expanding production at its Woodstock assembly plant — a project worth about $100-million and 400 jobs. Plus, the CAW and Big Three automakers recently reached new four-year contract agreements. Output in the auto sector was up a solid 20 per cent year-over-year through August.”

Also Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund trimmed its global growth forecasts in its quarterly economic outlook.

The IMF predicts the global economy will expand 3.3% this year, down from the estimate of 3.5% growth it issued in July. Its forecast for growth in 2013 is 3.6%, down from 3.9% three months ago and 4.1% in April.

Photo By: inertiachick

OIL & REAL ESTATE

House prices to get burst of energy
Strengthening oil sector to boost real estate
By Marty Hope
Calgary Herald September 17, 2011

Where oil goes, so goes Calgary.

As much as we like to say the city isn't as dependent on black gold for its health and prosperity, the fact is, we are.

With oil prices regaining strength and with hiring happening in the oilfields, the economy is beginning to strengthen - and it's pulling consumer confidence along with it.

A real estate axiom says that when the economy is good, the pace of home sales at the higher end of the market increases.

People in those income brackets aren't likely to buy if there is an indication the economy is headed south.

"That's probably true," says Norb Park, managing broker with Sotheby's International Realty Canada. "The businessminded are probably saying the economy is heading in the right direction, the oilpatch is in good shape, so this isn't a bad time to deal."

Resale housing statistics from the Calgary Real Estate Board tend to agree.

From the start of the year to the end of August, 948 homes priced at $700,000 and more changed hands, up from 779 for the same eight-month period in 2010.

In August, sales in that price range totalled 104 compared with 67 for the same month a year ago.

"There's a mindset that when oil is doing well, then the economy must be good," says Park. "That, in turn, increases consumer optimism - and right now, people are feeling positive."

But not all of us can afford homes that expensive.

Matter of fact, nearly 50 per cent of single-family homes sold this year and last were priced between $300,000 and $450,000.

"With Calgary's energy sector slated to grow, it is expected to lift the city's employment, income and in-migration - and in turn help contribute to growth in the resale market," says Sano Stante, president of the Calgary Real Estate Board. In-migration refers to the migration of people to the city.

"We expect price growth to improve as we approach the end of 2011 and move into 2012," he says, adding the market is seeing a boost in sales at both ends of the market.

"Improving economic conditions, coupled with affordability and price stability, has given Calgary a boost in buyers for upperend homes and entry-level condos," he says.

CREB also reports the average price for singlefamily resale homes reached $468,051 by the end of August, a one-per-cent increase compared to last year.

Taking a page from the RBC affordability reports, Stante says: "When looking at Canada's major cities, Calgary is one of the most affordable regions for homeownership in the country. Buyers are benefiting from improved selection at all price ranges in the market."

The single-family home market had 1,106 sales in August, an increase of 28 per cent when compared to the same month last year - which, by the way, was the lowest for August since 1994.

Sales of 9,485 for the start of the year to the end of August are 10-per-cent higher than the same period last year.

Condo sales totalled 468 units in August 2011, with a year-to-date total of 3,885 - similar to levels recorded in the first eight months of 2010.

Photo By: Mr. Alejandro Zeta

SEEING DOUBLE

Oil sands to double output by 2025
Carrie Tait , Financial Post
Wednesday, Jun. 9, 2010

CALGARY -- Canada will produce more than twice the amount of crude derived from oil sands by 2025 compared with what experts predict the bitumen-rich zones will churn out in 2010.

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers expects the oil sands to produce 1.5 million barrels of oil per day this year, and 3.5 million barrels per day by 2025. Its estimate considers current and planned projects, based on a survey of oil sands operators.

Further, by 2016, in-situ bitumen extraction methods — in which the oil is largely recovered using drilling techniques — will exceed strip-mining operations, CAPP said today in its annual crude, markets and pipelines forecast.

Oil sands production growth is expected to be the main driver behind Canada’s rising crude production. In 2010, the country will churn out 2.8 million barrels of oil per day, with 1.5 million barrels per day coming from the oil sands; in 2015, total production is expected to climb to 3.3 million barrels per day, with the oil sands contributing 2.2 million barrels; while 2020 will bring 3.9 million barrels per day, with 2.9 million barrels coming from northern Alberta; and in 2025, CAPP predicts Canada will spit out 4.3 million barrels of oil per day, with the oil sands making up 3.5 million barrels.