A BRIGHT SPOT!

Resale home sales seen as bright spot
Garry Marr, Financial Post 
October 18, 2011

Existing home prices in Canada continued to increase last month, although the gains recorded were the smallest since January.

The Canadian Real Estate Association said the average price of a home sold in September was $352,581, a 6.5% jump from a year earlier.

The continued strength of the market in the face of a battered world economy was on display last month as sales rebounded from August, increasing by 2.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis. For the first three quarters of the year, existing home sales are now 1.2% ahead of last year's pace.

The Ottawa-based group, which represents about 100 boards across the country, said new listings have been flat for two months and markets have tightened but all signs indicate most jurisdictions are still in balanced territory.

The group says nationally the sales-to-new-listings ratio was 52.8% in September, up from 51.6% in August. CREA says almost two-thirds of Canadian markets have a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 40% to 60%, which is considered balanced.

"The Canadian housing market remains a bright spot against a backdrop of mixed headline news about the global economy," said Gary Morse, CREA president. "Low mortgage rates continue to draw buyers to the housing market, while recently tightened mortgage regulations are working as intended."

Adrienne Warren, an economist with Bank of Nova Scotia, noted that even as Canadians spend less on retail purchases, those low interest rates are enticing home buyers.

"Continuing uncertainty over the global economic outlook and highly volatile financial markets have yet to contribute to any notable slowing in Canada's housing market," says Ms. Warren.

Last month's numbers were boosted by a strong contribution from the country's largest market. Toronto average sales prices rose 8.9% last month from a year ago to $465,369 while sales activity was up 21.3% during the same period.

"It's pretty clear Toronto is the star of the national real estate scene at least in this act," said Phil Soper, chief executive of Royal LePage Real Estate Services. "The reality is while the world may be on shaky economic footing and there are scenarios where it would cause hardship to business in Toronto, the current reality is we got jobs back from the recession quickly and there has been some slight upward pressure on income and salaries."

The market also appears to finally have adjusted to new mortgage rules. The latest round of changes saw amortization periods lowered to 30 years from 35 years, reduced refinancing limits to 85% of a home's value from 90% and removed government insurance on homeequity lines of credit.

Mr. Soper said those moves, combined with rule changes in 2010 that forced condominium investors to have a minimum 20% down payment, had slowed down the market. "What we didn't want to see was speculative house flippers and that's been tightened up," he said.

Gregory K lump, chief economist for CREA, noted housing has remained stable in face of market volatility, which has contributed to Canadian confidence in the economy.

"Interest rates are expected to remain low for longer, and evidence suggests that recent changes to mortgage regulations are preventing the kind of excesses they were designed to avert. Both of these developments are good news for the housing market," he said.

Photo By: Fiona Katherine