HIRING INTENTIONS

Hiring plans rebound to year high
John Morrissy, Financial Post
Published: Tuesday, December 08, 2009

Hiring intentions are at their highest level in 12 months, bouncing off the depths of the downturn and promising slightly better times for workers in 2010, the results of a Manpower Inc. survey suggest.

The placement firm's quarterly employment outlook has jumped to a reading of 13 for the first quarter of 2010, a much healthier rebound than during the "jobless recovery" of the early 90s, when negative hiring intentions stretched on for three years.

Although this recession left 400,000 Canadians out of work, the labour market appears to be on the mend, adding 79,100 jobs in November, according to the latest Statistics Canada report.

Manpower says Monday's data herald a "hopeful" hiring climate, although once seasonal adjusting is removed, the numbers don't suggest employment will change much during the quarter.

The survey of more than 1,900 Canadian employers showed that 70 per cent expect to maintain current staffing levels, while 15% will increase and 13% will decrease staffing, suggesting a net employment outlook of plus two, meaning only two per cent of all employers will actually be hiring.

"Employers are telling us that they plan to hire but at a more conservative pace than during the same time last year," said Manpower vice-president Lori Rogers.

Nevertheless, the quarterly reading, at 13, is returning to near-historical norms, after having averaged approximately 16 during the 2000s.

After readings of minus one and minus two in the second and third quarters of 2009 respectively, the index climbed to seven in the fourth quarter of 2009. At its current reading of 13, it still lags the reading of 18 posted one year ago.

Based on net employment outlook, hiring intentions are highest in Western Canada, with a reading of plus seven, via strength in the services and mining sectors.

Atlantic Canada posts a reading of plus five, thanks to strength in finance, insurance and real estate.

Ontario posts a reading of plus one, the result of sectoral strength in finance, insurance and real estate being offset by weakness in construction and mining.

And Quebec posts the lowest net employment outlook, with optimism in the transportation and public utilities sectors held back by weak hiring intentions in mining and services.