Loonie rises as oil climbs
Reuters
Reuters
Published: Thursday, June 11, 2009
TORONTO -- The Canadian dollar rose against the U.S. dollar on Thursday morning, lifted in part by firmer equities and oil prices, but the market was awaiting any commentary by the Bank of Canada on the currency's recent rally.
At 10:43 a.m. EDT, the Canadian dollar was at C$1.1000 to the U.S. dollar, or 90.91 U.S. cents, up from Wednesday's finish at C$1.1080 to the U.S. dollar, or 90.25 U.S. cents.
A speech by Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney on Thursday and a subsequent news conference would be "watched keenly" for any commentary on the Canadian dollar's recent rise, said Derek Holt, an economist at Scotia Capital.
"Is its rise sustainable; how much of it is driven by fundamentals versus overshooting; how long do they think it'll stick going on into next year; and what are the updated estimates on its impact on the Canadian economy?" said Holt.
"There's a tremendous scope for market impact on any comments from that."
North American stocks were firmer on Thursday, helped by higher oil prices and U.S. economic data that showed a rise in retail sales and a slight decline in first-time jobless claims.
Oil rose to US$72 a barrel after the International Energy Agency raised its estimate for 2009 demand, adding to signs the decline in consumption may have bottomed out.
Also on Thursday, the Canadian government will provide its scheduled fiscal update, but that event will likely have a negligible effect on the currency, said George Davis, chief technical strategist at RBC Capital Markets.
"Unless we get a shocking about-face in terms of any type of indication that the deficit it is going to be a lot less than what's been projected of about C$50-billion ... I don't think that's going to have much of an impact," he said.
BONDS MOSTLY LOWER
Canadian bond prices were mostly lower across the curve ahead of the government's fiscal update, said Scotia Capital's Holt.
"You might get firmer deficit numbers and a stronger understanding of the financing flows and some comment about how quickly they expect to rein this back in over the next few years that could affect the bond market," he said.
The benchmark two-year government bond was down 9 Canadian cents at C$99.55 to yield 1.486%, while the 10-year bond fell 8 Canadian cents to C$100.75 to yield 3.659%.
The 30-year bond rose 30 Canadian cents to C$115.05 to yield 4.091%. The comparable U.S. Treasury issue yielded 4.7903%.
TORONTO -- The Canadian dollar rose against the U.S. dollar on Thursday morning, lifted in part by firmer equities and oil prices, but the market was awaiting any commentary by the Bank of Canada on the currency's recent rally.
At 10:43 a.m. EDT, the Canadian dollar was at C$1.1000 to the U.S. dollar, or 90.91 U.S. cents, up from Wednesday's finish at C$1.1080 to the U.S. dollar, or 90.25 U.S. cents.
A speech by Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney on Thursday and a subsequent news conference would be "watched keenly" for any commentary on the Canadian dollar's recent rise, said Derek Holt, an economist at Scotia Capital.
"Is its rise sustainable; how much of it is driven by fundamentals versus overshooting; how long do they think it'll stick going on into next year; and what are the updated estimates on its impact on the Canadian economy?" said Holt.
"There's a tremendous scope for market impact on any comments from that."
North American stocks were firmer on Thursday, helped by higher oil prices and U.S. economic data that showed a rise in retail sales and a slight decline in first-time jobless claims.
Oil rose to US$72 a barrel after the International Energy Agency raised its estimate for 2009 demand, adding to signs the decline in consumption may have bottomed out.
Also on Thursday, the Canadian government will provide its scheduled fiscal update, but that event will likely have a negligible effect on the currency, said George Davis, chief technical strategist at RBC Capital Markets.
"Unless we get a shocking about-face in terms of any type of indication that the deficit it is going to be a lot less than what's been projected of about C$50-billion ... I don't think that's going to have much of an impact," he said.
BONDS MOSTLY LOWER
Canadian bond prices were mostly lower across the curve ahead of the government's fiscal update, said Scotia Capital's Holt.
"You might get firmer deficit numbers and a stronger understanding of the financing flows and some comment about how quickly they expect to rein this back in over the next few years that could affect the bond market," he said.
The benchmark two-year government bond was down 9 Canadian cents at C$99.55 to yield 1.486%, while the 10-year bond fell 8 Canadian cents to C$100.75 to yield 3.659%.
The 30-year bond rose 30 Canadian cents to C$115.05 to yield 4.091%. The comparable U.S. Treasury issue yielded 4.7903%.
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