2013 CALGARY REAL ESTATE BOARD FORECAST

CREB® forecasts moderate sales, price growth

 The full forecast report is available here.

Calgary, Jan. 16, 2013 – The resale housing market in Calgary and area will see moderate sales and house price growth in 2013, CREB® said today at its annual forecast.

Sales growth in the city is expected to ease to 2.2 per cent this year, with house prices rising by 2.9 per cent.

“Slower growth trends in employment combined with lower migration estimates will impact sales growth across all resale sectors, and, as listings continue to decline, this will further dampen sales growth, particularly in the single-family market,” Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB®’s chief economist, said at the 2013 CREB® Forecast Conference & Tradeshow. “However, as the overall market remains well supplied, prices will continue to grow but not at the levels seen in 2012.”

In 2012, Calgary’s single-family market recorded sales growth of nearly 15 per cent. With a decline in the level of new single-family listings, that is expected to ease to 1.8 per cent this year. Prices are estimated to rise by three per cent.

Becky Walters, president of CREB®’s 2013 board of directors, said the city and surrounding areas are seeing good resale activity.

“We have a nice, balanced market, and it’s expected to see some growth this year,” Walters said. “Although some big markets in Canada are stumbling, Calgary is hot on the heels of a year of recovery, with the forecast saying the market is going to stay in positive territory.”

In the condominium market, sales are expected to increase by three per cent, with a moderate price appreciation of 2.4 per cent for condo apartments and 2.8 per cent for condo townhouses.

Although the prediction is for a “balanced” resale housing market, Lurie said there are numerous risks in the market.

“The largest risk in our market is related to concerns in the oil sector,” she said. “They are facing pipeline constraints and lack of access to more diverse markets, impacting the price they receive for their oil. If the discounts on our oil persist, this clearly could impact the job sector and, ultimately, the housing market.”

BEST IN CANADA

Calgary luxury home market sales growth best in Canada
Sotheby’s International Realty Canada predicts trend to continue
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald January 11, 2013

CALGARY — Calgary led the country in 2012 in sales growth for the luxury home market, according to firm Sotheby’s International Realty Canada.

Ross McCredie, president and chief executive of the real estate company, said Calgary is the “best performing market in Canada right now in terms of growth.”

“The trend has been upward and we don’t see any sign of that changing for awhile,” said McCredie. “There’s more and more investment coming into Alberta. More and more people are moving there. You’ve got a range of jobs. It’s not just simply oil and gas companies that are investing there.

“In the rest of the country, there’s definitely a trend going west and Alberta is probably leading that trend in terms of companies investing in key offices across Canada as well as foreign companies coming in as well.”

He predicted double-digit sales growth for Calgary’s luxury home market this year which will outstrip the performance of other major centres across the country.

“Calgary is really starting to become a city of high net worth people and investment coming into the country,” said McCredie.

In its Top-Tier Real Estate Report, a biannual study highlighting market trends for the most expensive homes in Canada’s largest urban centres, Sotheby’s said the market for luxury homes is expected to gain momentum and “to generate increasing demand from both local and international buyers given strong economic fundamentals, historically low interest rates and a national unemployment rate that has hit a record four-year low.”

In Calgary, compared with the same July to December period in 2011, listings over $1 million were up 38 per cent and sales of real estate in the same category were up 21 per cent in the second half of 2012.

“The average days on market for homes over a million dollars increased slightly to 66 days and the percentage of properties selling over asking price dropped slightly to five per cent,” said the report. “High-end neighbourhoods like Elbow Park and Glencoe were among those to see strong demand.”

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, the city experienced a record for MLS sales over $1 million each in 2012 with 544 transactions, eclipsing the previous record of 458 in the housing boom of 2007. In 2011, there were 446 luxury home sales.

In 2012, the luxury home market had 508 single-family home sales and 36 condo sales compared with 420 and 26 respectively in 2011.

CREB said 1,533 homes were listed for sale in Calgary over $1 million in 2012 — 1,408 single-family and 125 condo. In 2011, there were 1,352 luxury home listings — 1,253 single-family and 99 condo.

In 2007, the luxury home market had 1,242 listings for the year, comprised of 1,159 single-family homes and 83 condos.

“We saw such an increase in activity in the last two quarters of 2012,” said realtor Christina Hagerty, who recently joined Sotheby’s in Calgary. “The momentum was building up all last year and it continued over the holiday season. This should be a good indicator of the year ahead. With the dwindling supply, and the strong pulse on the street that ‘Calgary is where you need to be,’ properties priced at market, are selling. Buyers are not wasting any time. They have done their research and are ready to make an offer when the right one hits the market.”

SECOND TO ONE

Calgary’s 8th Avenue S.W. second most expensive street for office space in Canada
Toronto’s Bay Street tops in average street rent
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald November 28, 2012

CALGARY — Calgary’s 8th Avenue S.W. strip is the second most expensive street in Canada for office space, according to a report by Jones Lang LaSalle.

The company said Toronto’s Bay Street comes in at No. 1 with average rents running at around $68.91 per square foot and the top rent on the street at $82.28 per square foot.

Calgary’s 8th Avenue S.W. follows with average office rents of $55.33 per square foot and the top rent on the street at $76.50 per square foot.

“It is clear from our ranking that companies are keen to pay a premium to be in the most prestigious locations,” said Brett Miller, president of Jones Lang LaSalle Canada. “Our figures also prove that demand is not abating and rents have moved up year-over-year in every city confirming the strength of the Canadian office market.”

Calgary’s 8th Avenue S.W made its debut this year to reach second on the list. Last year, Calgary’s 3rd Avenue S.W. was in fourth place.

This year’s list after 8th Avenue S.W. with their average street rent and top street rent includes: Vancouver’s Burrard Street, $54.75, $65.41; Ottawa’s Albert Street, $53.18, $53.18; Edmonton’s 101st Street NW, $49.40, $55.25; Montreal’s Rene-Levesque Boulevard West, $46.46, $56.19; and Halifax’s Upper Water Street, $35.57, $35.78.

Maggie Schofield, executive director of the Calgary Downtown Association, said the high Calgary rent along 8th Avenue is due to the existence of office skyscrapers Bankers Hall and Eighth Avenue Place.

“We’re certainly not surprised that the rates would be very high. It’s all about location. These are very, very high demand properties and the market is certainly driving it. There’s a great deal of appetite for high level, the top class, real estate in the downtown core from the office perspective,” said Schofield.

“A number of companies are trying to take advantage of the fact that they can now get into some of these newer properties and get contiguous space which has been a real challenge for a lot of companies that are trying to expand. So they’re looking at these opportunities and they’re willing to pay that price to get all their people in the same office building rather than being scattered in three or four or five separate towers depending on which company you are.”

Other advantages include the number of amenities along 8th Avenue, particularly in retail, great access to transit and available parking spaces in newer buildings, she said.

Commercial real estate firm CBRE said the vacancy rate in the downtown Calgary office market for Class AA space was 0.5 per cent in the third quarter of this year. It has dipped after being 10.6 per cent at the end of 2009.

According to CBRE, the average net asking rent for Calgary downtown Class AA office space was $23.50 per square foot in the second quarter of 2000. It peaked at $54.48 in the second and third quarters of 2008 then dipped to $33.78 in the first quarter of 2010.

In the third quarter of this year, the average net asking rent for Calgary downtown Class AA office space was $42.00.

The Jones Lang LaSalle report indicated that the differences between the average market rents and the average street rents this year were 133 per cent for Bay Street and 63 per cent for 8th Avenue S.W.

In 2011, it said Bay Street had an average street rent of $52.09 with a top street rent of $78.19. For 8th Avenue last year it was $49.94 for the average street rent and $54.19 for the top street rent.

Photo By: Tony Tran

LUCKY SEVEN IN NOVEMBER

Calgary resale housing market sales strong in November
Sales up nearly 7% over last year
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald November 30, 2012

CALGARY — Calgary’s resale housing market continues to defy a national cooling trend.

With one day left in November, data from the Calgary Real Estate Board indicates total MLS sales and average prices during the month in the city are elevated from last year.

From November 1-29, there have been 1,390 total MLS sales, up 6.92 per cent compared with the same period a year ago and the average sale price has risen by 4.90 per cent to $433,590.

Every housing category in the city has seen strength in numbers this month.

In single-family homes, there have been 960 sales, up 3.56 per cent from last year, with the average sale price moving up by 3.93 per cent to $488,155.

The condo apartment category has experienced 245 transactions, an increase of 6.52 per cent, while the average price has risen by 22.14 per cent to $309,235.

In the condo townhouse sector, the average sale price has jumped by 3.15 per cent to $315,126 and sales are up 29.37 per cent to 185 transactions.

On Friday, the Conference Board of Canada released its regular monthly resale housing market report of major centres across Canada and it said the average year-over-year price growth for the latest three months in Calgary is between three to 4.9 per cent.

In October, the seasonally-adjusted annual rate of sales in the Calgary census metropolitan area was 27,312, up 22 per cent year-over-year while new listings of 39,864 were down 8.4 per cent.

The average residential sale price of $423,468 was up 5.5 per cent from last year.

LIGHTS AT THE ZOO!

Witness 1.5 million Christmas lights in their most glorious state at the Calgary Zoo.

Voted Best Christmas Event 2011 by Calgary’s Child Magazine’s Parents’ Choice Awards.

Calgary’s Favourite Holiday tradition is back, and this year we are adding even more light displays, figures and activities for you and your loved ones to enjoy.

November 23 — January 5
(excluding Christmas Day
and New Year's Eve)

6:00 pm – 9:00 pm nightly
gates close at 8:30 pm
North Gate Only

$10 General (16 +) + gst (includes parking)
$7 children (3-15) + gst
Under 2 years are free

Group Rates – Please contact the Calgary Zoo’s Guest Relations office for information on group rates. 403-232-9300

Calgary Co-op locations will stop selling Zoolights tickets as of January 5, 2012. Tickets will be available through the Calgary Zoo website or at the north gate.

Please contact the Zoo’s guest relations office for information on group rates.

As you wander through Zoolights, you will be surrounded by the most amazing holiday cheer there is. Sip your hot chocolate, warm up by a fire pit and take in the great Canadian winter weather.

Speak directly to Santa at the North Pole, shop at the Elf’s Toy Shop that’s just for kids, participate in the NEW Penguin Plunge Kidz Zone and take a walk through Candy Land!.

Don't forget your non-perishable food bank donation. Collection bins will be placed at the North Gate entrance to the Zoo.

Come experience Calgary’s favourite holiday tradition.

There are more then 1.5 million reasons to come to Calgary’s favourite Holiday tradition:

•SantaVision allows children to talk directly to Santa in the North Pole. Later you can download the conversation to send to family and friends.

•NEW Water Wonderland Kids Zone!

•Ice Carving demonstrations every Friday and Saturday night by Frozen Memories.

•The Country 105 Wishing Tree - enter to have a wish you’ve made for yourself or someone you love granted!

•Most Friday and Saturday night, enjoy performances by local Calgary choirs.

•Enjoy the plethora of new light figures and exhibits created for your enjoyment

•Don’t forget your non-perishable food bank donation. Collection bins will be placed at the North Gate entrance to the Zoo and you’ll receive a 2for1 admission ticket to the Zoo.

SOTHEBY'S EXPANSION

Luxury realtor Sotheby’s to expand into Canmore, Banff
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald November 22, 2012

CALGARY — Sotheby’s International Realty Canada is expanding its luxury real estate brand to other parts of Alberta, the Herald has learned.

Ross McCredie, president and chief executive of Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, said the Calgary office, which opened in June of last year, has been a smashing success and now the firm has plans to expand its presence in the market.

“That office is performing incredibly well ... Right now we have about 30 people. We probably won’t add much more to the Calgary operation,” said McCredie.

“We are going to be opening very shortly in Canmore and we’ll have a marketing/gallery office in Banff opening very shortly as well. We are currently in discussion with a number of people in Edmonton and we’re actively looking for locations in Edmonton right now.”

The company is targeting some time in 2013 for the opening of an Edmonton office.

The luxury home market in Calgary has been booming with no signs of letting up.

The city experienced a record-breaking month in October with 51 MLS sales of properties over $1 million in Calgary, which was the most ever for an October, and that pushed year-to-date sales in the luxury market to 459, one more than previous record set in 2007 for the entire year.

Last year, there were 35 luxury home sales in October and year-to-date in 2011 there were 395 sales in the luxury market up to the end of October.

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, the following are the highest sales for luxury homes outside of this year: 2007 — 458; 2011 — 446; 2008 — 369; and 2010 — 365.

“Talk of fiscal cliffs and budget deficits has done nothing to curb Calgarian’s appetite for luxury homes with sales still going strong in November,” according to Mike Fotiou, associate broker with First Place Realty, on his blog.

“Between November 1-20, there have been 29 single family homes sold in Calgary for a million dollars or more. That’s on pace to set a record high for the month of November, after already setting an October high last month and a total record high earlier this year in May.”

Recently, it was announced that 360 VOX Corporation has acquired the real estate businesses known as Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, Sotheby’s International Realty Quebec and Blueprint Global Marketing.

“It really elevates our platform,” said McCredie of the merger.

360 VOX is a publicly-traded company, incorporated under the laws of Ontario and listed on the TSX Venture Exchange. It is engaged in the business of managing and developing international hotel, resort, residential and commercial real estate projects.

WHEN TO SELL, UP-SIZE, MOVE ON.

When is it time to give up the family home?
By Garry Marr
Financial Post Nov 17, 2012

It’s a conversation certified financial planner Lise Andreana usually saves for last.

The Niagara-on-the-Lake CFP, who counts a large number of Baby Boomers among her clients, says plans for the family home are one of the more difficult subjects to address.

“It’s something that comes up all the time,” says Ms. Andreana, adding clients have to make the decision sometimes for financial reasons and other times for health considerations. “It’s a piece I leave until the last. I start with ‘sell the house never’ as a default position.”

Most people want to hold onto their home into retirement. The latest data from 2012 Census from Statistics Canada shows only about 2.6% of the population 65 and over was living in residences for senior citizens — about 72.3% of them women.

Living longer and working longer has people staying in their homes and, in some cases, even up-sizing by taking on more debt, says one real estate executive.

The evidence from StatsCan shows that in 2011, 66.5% of men aged 65 to 69 lived in a single-detached house compared with 60.4% for women. Once you get to 85, just 44.3% of men live in a single-detached house and 30.9% of women.

It’s clear the older we get the more likely we are to abandon the family home with the difficult decision being when to do it. A key trigger point is when kids move out of the house and you just don’t need the space.

“Many people move from more expensive areas to [cheaper ones] to save money too,” says Ms. Andreana, who suggests if you are still making mortgage payments into retirement you really need to think about moving because your income is gone.

The problem is adult children are moving back home like never before, forcing many Baby Boomers to keep that extra large house just in case their kids need a soft landing. StatsCan said about 42% of young adults 20-29 lived with their folks in 2011, a huge jump from 32.1% in 1991 and 26.9% in 1981.

That could be a reason to actually downsize, so your kids can’t move in. “I actually did that with my kids,” says Ms. Andreana, with a laugh. “I sold my three-bedroom house and bought a townhouse and said ‘guess what, your bedroom is gone. There is no where for you to go.”

Doug Norris, chief demographer at Environics Analytics, said Baby Boomers probably worry about their kids, but also the economic climate, which could keep them in the house longer. “It’s uncertain times,” says Mr. Norris. “But there comes a time where you do make that choice and it’s often driven by lifestyle.”

Mr. Norris says a new trend developing is downsizing to condominiums, but doing it by moving to the suburbs so Baby Boomers can be close to grandchildren. Condo growth in Toronto’s suburbs has actually been faster than downtown, even if the overall number of units pales in comparison. But in many Canadian cities high-rise development outside the urban core is negligible.

“You see a lot of care giving of grandkids being done by grandparents today and they want to be close to them,” he says.

In some cases those Boomers are actually taking on more debt so they can get into a larger home later in life.

“It is surprising to most people that instead of downsizing they are setting new standards for retirement living,” said Gurinder Sandhu, managing director of Re/Max Ontario-Atlantic Canada. “There is a significant number of them upgrading and actually assuming greater mortgages. It’s so unlike previous generations.”

It could have something to do with the housing boom. Surveys continually point to people believing their homes are a key part of their retirement package. If you believe that, leveraging a good investment can make sense.

The bottom line is Baby Boomers seem destined to stay in their homes as long as they can, says Fred Vettese, chief actuary of Morneau Shepell. “The vast majority (nine out of 10) of middle- to upper-income Canadians own their home at the point of retirement and almost all of them stay in their homes beyond retirement,” he says. “The slight percentage drop in ownership among those who are 70-plus probably reflects the portion of them who are 80-plus who move to retirement homes or move in with their children.”