A PLEASANT FORECAST IN CALGARY?

Strong 2012 forecast for city's housing market
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald December 7, 2011

Fuelled by low interest rates and job security, demand for residential real estate in Calgary is on the upswing, says the Re/Max Housing Market Outlook 2012 report published Tuesday.

And the real estate firm says Calgary will be a Canadian leader next year in the annual growth rate for MLS sales.

By year-end 2011, 22,500 homes are expected to change hands, an eight per cent increase over the 20,801 sales reported in 2010, it said.

And the average price in Calgary is forecast to appreciate as well, rising a "modest" one per cent to $405,000 in 2011, up from $401,186 one year ago.

The report forecasts the average MLS sale price will jump by three per cent in 2012 to $417,000, while sales will rise by five per cent to 23,600 units.

Lowell Martens, of Re/ Max Real Estate (Mountain View) in Calgary, said any hesitation on the part of some buyers in the city is more than likely a direct reflection of the uncertainty in the European economic situation.

He said commercial realestate construction taking place in Calgary "tells us the long-term feeling out there is very positive for Calgary."

"We have a very stable market over the next little while. We don't anticipate any big upswings, but at the same time we don't anticipate any big downswings either. It's going to be very stable," he said.

Buyers in the city are cautiously optimistic after more than two years of recession, making their moves while interest rates are at historic lows and housing values are affordable, said the report.

"Single-family homes remain most popular with purchasers, representing close to 60 per cent of total residential sales. Demand is greatest for entry-level product, priced between $350,000 and $450,000," it said. "Con-dominium apartments and town houses have also experienced solid momentum in recent months, with the lion's share of activity occurring from $200,000 to $300,000. Luxury home sales - priced over $1 million - have been particularly brisk, up approximately 25 per cent over 2010 levels."

While global concerns still loom, the market appears to be gaining some traction moving into the new year, said the report. Re/Max said Canadian residential realestate defied conventional logic and outperformed expectations in 2011, posting another solid year of housing activity virtually across the board. The trend is expected to carry forward into 2012 as Canadians "continue to demonstrate their faith in home ownership, despite concerns over the European debt crisis and its impact on the global economy."

"What 2011 proves is that real estate continues to have momentum," said Elton Ash, regional executive vice-president, Re/Max of Western Canada, in a statement.

"The economic underpinnings support ongoing demand, particularly as job creation efforts continue and unemployment rates edge down further."

Photo by: Hypnotic Love

PAID, STAMPED, FILED!

Canadians paying off mortgages early: CMHC
Financial Post Staff  
Nov 29, 2011

OTTAWA — Canadian homeowners are doing a good job of paying off their mortgages early, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., which released its third-quarter results Tuesday.

While mortgage repayments can be spread out over 30 years, the CMHC reports that the average amortization period for mortgages insured by the national housing agency is under 25 years, and the loan-to-value ratio of those homes was 80% or less. As of Sept. 30, the outstanding loan amount per household for all homeowner loans was $159,740, slightly above the figure for the previous year.

“CMHC analysis shows that a substantial percentage of CMHC-insured high ratio borrowers are ahead of their scheduled amortization,” the agency said in its report. “Accelerated payments shorten the overall amortization period, reduce interest costs, increase equity in the home at a faster rate and lower risk over time.”

The agency says its mortgage arrears rate is 0.42%, in line with industry trends.

Rules brought in by the federal government in March, in response to historic levels of household debt, which reduced amortization periods on certain mortgages, and limited the amount that can be borrowed when a house is refinanced, cut refinancing activity by 31% from last year, the CMHC said. The agency’s homeowner purchase mortgage insurance showed a year-over-year decrease of 12%.

“The level of household debt remains a concern but there are encouraging signals,” it says. “There has been a significant deceleration in the growth of mortgage credit since March, particularly in recent months, impacting the growth rate of total household credit. Growth in personal loans, lines of credit and credit cards has levelled off in recent months.”

The agency notes general economic conditions have been favourable in 2011, with stable mortgage rates, a healthy housing market and a declining unemployment rate.

“Overall arrears levels and arrears rates have been improving and (mortgage insurance) claims volumes have been lower than expected,” it said. “Given current economic forecasts, it is expected that trends will improve moderately going forward, although both downside and upside risks remain.”

While housing sales have slowed since January, the CMHC expects sales for the year to fall within a range of 423,600 to 470,100 units, and next year’s sales to be somewhere between 406,100 and 509,000 units. Prices should “modestly grow as market conditions are expected to remain in the balanced market range,” it said.

The agency notes it keeps an eye out for bubbles, but so far it sees “little evidence of over-valuation” in the Canadian housing market.

Photo By: *_Abhi_*

THE LOGICAL SONG

Housing market to continue to defy logic
Garry Marr
Financial Post,  Dec. 6, 2011

Even one of Canada’s leading real estate companies agrees the rising housing market may not appear to make much sense.

But appearances are deceiving and Re/Max says both sales and average prices will continue to climb in 2012.

“Canadian residential real estate defied conventional logic and outperformed expectations in 2011,” the company said in its year-end report on the market.

Re/Max expects 2011 to finish with prices up 7% and the average home across the country selling for $363,000. The market won’t be as robust in 2012 but consumers can still expect another 2% jump in prices.

Sales figure for 2011 are forecast to climb by 3% from a year earlier with 460,000 homes having changed hands by year end. For 2012, expect less than a 1% increase in activity with only an additional 4,500 sales.

“The Canadian housing market has demonstrated tremendous resilience in recent years but 2011 stands out,” said Michael Polzler, executive vice-president of Re/Max Ontario-Atlantic Canada. “Instead of responding to economic concerns both here and abroad with a retreat in sales and prices, residential real estate markets actually experienced an upswing in the volatile third and fourth quarter.”

Re/Max looked at 26 markets across the country and predicts 23 will show an increase in average price for the year. Sales were up in 22 of those 26 markets. The company says 81% of markets studied will see price increases in 2012.

Among the reasons cited for the Canadian housing market’s continued strength against the odds has been population growth which has gone up by 11% since 2000. Re/Max notes by 2031, the country will have 42 million people.

“Population growth and immigration are major factors expected to prop-up housing demand and household formation in the coming years,” says the company.

Condominiums are expected to continue to garner a growing share of the housing market with investment and income-producing properties in high demand. Low vacancy rates are said to have driven those markets in 2011 and those conditions are expected to continue.

Photo By: Bru76

RESALE NEWS

Calgary sees more home resales as average price drops
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald  November 30, 2011

Calgary's resale housing sales grew in October, but the average price dipped, according to the Conference Board of Canada.

In a report published Tuesday, the board said the seasonally adjusted annualized rate of sales in Calgary was 22,572 during the month, up from 22,344 in September and an increase from 19,524 in October 2010.

But the average price fell in October to $402,561 from $408,466 in September. A year ago it was $396,041.

As for new listings, the annualized rate in October decreased to 43,656 from 44,664 the previous month, but up from 42,960 in October 2010.

In October, the sales-to-new listings ratio in Calgary was 0.512. It was 0.471 in September and 0.455 a year ago. The conference board said Calgary can expect short-term year-over-year annual price growth of between five and seven per cent.

According to the latest Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. market outlook report, MLS sales in the Calgary region are forecast to increase by 2.3 per cent in 2012 to 22,700, while new listings are expected to decrease by 1.1. per cent to 43,700. The average MLS sales price is forecast to jump by 2.2 per cent in 2012 to $411,000 in the Calgary census metropolitan area.

The CMHC housing market outlook says despite many positive factors for real estate, "competing factors such as uncertainty in the global economy has kept some prospective buyers on the fence and will continue to temper any large increases in sales."

Photo By: Where To Willie

A NOTABLE MENTION!

GTA condo sales this year smash record
Garry Marr
Financial Post Nov 22, 2011

Condominium sales are taking over the Greater Toronto Area new housing market and some parts of the country are following closely behind as rising costs push consumers into vertical housing, a new report suggests.

The Building Industry and Land Development Association said there were 23,747 condo sales in the Greater Toronto Area through the first 10 months of the year, smashing the previous high of 22,316 in 2007 — with two months yet to go.

High-rise sales accounted for approximately 61% of all sales in GTA from January-October. At this point last year high-rise sales only accounted for 57% of the overall market.

“It’s very much becoming a condo market,” said Joe Vaccaro, acting president of BILD. “Ten years ago the split was 25% high-rise versus 75% low-rise.”

The trend appears contained not just to Toronto’s urban core but is now moving to the suburbs. “There seems to be a new trend setting in over the last couple of months with the 905 [suburban] areas outperforming Toronto when it comes to [condo] sales,” said Mr. Vaccaro.

Suburban land costs have skyrocketed because of what the industry refers to as regulatory inertia with no new land developments approved in the suburbs over the last five years. It has led to the hoarding of land and rising prices for single detached homes.

A report Tuesday from Altus Group suggests the GTA will not see any sort of slowdown in new condo construction in 2012.

“New condominium apartment sales in Toronto and Ottawa continue to hum along, which will continue to buoy apartment starts in Ontario through 2012,” said Altus.

Peter Norman, chief economist for the Altus Group, says population growth has supported the Toronto condominium market. “That number of people generates a fair amount of housing demand no matter what is happening,” says Mr. Norman. “Add in the interest rate environment, and them not going up, and that adds to it. There has been a restriction on [new] lots and a lot of people have been shoved into apartments.”

The group looked at 10 real estate markets across the country and found only Alberta is set to rise in 2012. Regina, along with Toronto, is forecast for flat sales.

“Calgary and Edmonton employment growth in 2011 has more than made up for 2010’s declines,” says Altus. “Although employment growth will be more moderate in 2012, the strong showing this year is favourable for stronger housing starts in 2012.”

Altus is forecasting apartment starts to jump to 5,475 in 2012, up from 3,975 in 2011. Single family construction is also forecast to jump to 22,325 in 2012 from 20,906, putting high-rise construction at almost 20% of the Alberta market.

Phil Soper, chief executive of Royal LePage Real Estate Services Inc., says his company has noticed the trend in top condominium apartments in its corporate owned franchises in Toronto and Vancouver. “There is the cost of the commute, the hard costs like gas and insurance but then there is the soft costs in time,” he said, noting consumers look for housing that is closer to subways and urban cores.

If anything, he says Canadian cities, including Toronto, are playing catchup when it comes to high-rise construction. “Look at big established mature cities like New York. They have much more vertical living per resident than we do, they just don’t have as much on per capita basis that is new,” says Mr. Soper. “We have hundred of thousands of new Canadians that have to be accommodated in Toronto.”

Photo By: Surrealplaces

ALL OF THE LIGHTS!

ZooLights

November 25, 2011 - January 7, 2012
(Excluding Christmas Day and December 31)

6:00 PM – 9:00 PM nightly
Gates close at 8:30 PM
North Gate entrance ONLY

$10 Adults + GST (includes parking)
$7 Children + GST
TICKETS ARE ON SALE NOW!!

Please contact the Zoo’s guest relations office for information on group rates.

As you wander through Zoolights, you will be surrounded by the most amazing holiday cheer there is. Sip your hot chocolate, warming up by a fire pit and enjoying the great Canadian winter weather.

Speak directly to Santa at the North Pole, shop at the Elf’s Toy Shop that’s just for kids, participate in the NEW Penguin Plunge Kidz Zone and take a walk through Candy Land!

Don’t forget your non-perishable food bank donation. Collection bins will be placed at the North Gate entrance to the Zoo.

There are more then 1.5 million light reasons to come to Calgary’s favourite Holiday tradition:

•SantaVision allows children to talk directly to Santa in the North Pole. Later you can download the conversation to send to family and friends.

•New Penguin Plunge Kidz Zone with activities such as Happy Feet, March of the Penguins, Reindeer Toss and more!

•Ice Carving demonstrations every Friday and Saturday nights by Frozen Memories.

•Learn about the many different kinds of Wishing Trees celebrated around the world and then write your own wish to hang on the Zoo’s Wishing Tree.

•Every Friday and Saturday night, enjoy performances by local Calgary choirs.

•Enjoy two new light exhibits, including Candy Land and an Ode to Canada.

Please give yourself at least one hour to fully enjoy all that Zoolights has to offer

OIL SANDS OUTPUT PROJECTIONS!

Canada oil sands output to triple by 2035: report
Reuters
Nov 23, 2011

Production from the oil sands will more than triple over the next quarter century, to 5.1 million barrels per day, Canada’s national energy regulator said in a report released on Tuesday.

In a look at energy production and consumption through 2035, the National Energy Board said output from the oil sands, the largest source of U.S. oil imports, will continue to expand from around 1.5 million bpd currently as new mining and thermal projects tap the resources.

The oil sands of northern Alberta are the world’s third biggest crude reserves, behind only Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, but the largest open to private investment.

The NEB said its forecast also assumes oil prices will rise slowly through to 2035, reaching $115 a barrel in 2010 dollars, a level that provides a reasonable profit even for expensive new mining and upgrading projects such as those operated by Suncor Energy Inc, Royal Dutch Shell and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.

The board also estimates that Canadian oil exports will rise to 5 million bpd by 2035 from about 2 million currently, with most of the additional supply coming from oil sands projects.

However the board cautioned that its forecast assumes markets and infrastructure will be available to handle the additional production. That outlook comes despite a U.S. decision delaying the approval of TransCanada Corp’s Keystone XL pipeline from Alberta to Texas by as much as 18 months.

The NEB said total production of Canadian crude oil would rise to 6 million barrels a day by 2035, double current levels. Though most will come from the oil sands, output from oil shale reserves like the Bakken field in Saskatchewan will also help bolster the total.

Photo by: Luuk van Beek