BLAZING AHEAD

Canada’s housing market steams ahead
Reuters  Oct 11, 2011

TORONTO — Canadian housing starts jumped much more than expected in September, helped by a surge in the condominium sector, suggesting Canada’s property boom stayed intact last month and should help the economy avert recession.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said on Tuesday that starts rose to seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 205,900 units last month. August starts were revised up to 191,900 from 184,700.

September starts far exceeded the consensus expectation of analysts, who had called for 188,000.

Driving the gains were a jump in construction of multi-residential buildings such as condominiums.

“Housing starts picked up in September due to an increase in multiple starts in the Atlantic region, Quebec and in British Columbia,” Mathieu Laberge, a deputy chief economist with CMHC said in a statement.

“Multiple housing starts are expected to move back toward levels consistent with demographic fundamentals in the near term.”

The agency said urban starts increased by 8% to 185,900 units in September, with multiple urban starts up by 14.2% to 118,000 units. Single family housing starts in urban areas decreased by 1.5% in September to 67,900 units.

Rural starts were estimated at 20,000 units.

CIBC World Markets economist Emanuella Enenajor said in a note to clients that while multiple starts are widely expected to scale down in the months ahead, residential construction could be a plus for GDP in the third quarter.

Canada’s economy contracted marginally in the second quarter, partly due to the supply chain impact of Japan’s earthquake and tsunami. There had been fear the economy could shrink again in the third quarter, meeting the textbook definition of a recession.

But recent data has been encouraging. A report on Friday showed Canada created six times as many jobs as expected in September, helped by an economy that is largely humming along even as other rich nations struggle with debt and slumping confidence.

Canada’s housing sector has played a major role in the recovery. The country avoided the subprime housing boom that drove the United States into recession and helped trigger the global financial crisis.

Property prices and sales briefly weakened after the crisis. But the Bank of Canada’s decision to cut interest rates to a record low, which pulled mortgage rates lower, fueled a fresh boom.

The housing boom was helped along by the fact Canada’s conservative banks escaped the crisis largely unscathed and were able to keep lending.

The fear now for many policymakers is a fresh asset bubble could be in the works.

A NEW PERSPECTIVE

Project Calgary will give new perspective on Calgary's neighbourhoods
By Tom Babin
Calgary Herald October 8, 2011

What would make your neighbourhood better?

It’s a simple question, but the answers are not. The answers come wrapped in expectation and are coloured by perception, history and experience. Still, the question should be asked. Without it, our city will never improve.

That’s why we’re posing it. It’s what’s driving Project Calgary, a new initiative of the Calgary Herald that kicks of today and runs for the next 100 days. In hundreds of ways, we will seek answers to that question, and we want your help.

At the heart of Project Calgary lies an ever-growing archive of data that we have spent months compiling. In nearly 50 different areas, we have collected data on Calgary’s 200 individual neighbourhoods that collectively shed never-before seen light on community life in the city. We have crime statistics, housing data, affordability indexes, and measures of neighbourliness and much more. Want to know how much parkspace your community has compared to your best friend’s? We’ve got that. Want to know where your neighbourhood ranks on an index of coffee shops? We have that too. Worried about growing enclaves of poverty, or the plight of seniors living alone? We have data that can shed light.

Over the course of the project, all of that data and more will be made available to everybody, as spreadsheets or in more easily understood maps and interactive charts, on our website. It’s a project of open data, so we want you to take it, interpret it, post it on your blog, share it with your friends on Facebook, and tell us what you think.

The data, however, is just the starting point. It will kick off conversations about how we can make our neighbourhoods, and thereby our city, better. Our journalists have spent months combing the data, looking for stories and trends that will illuminate, inform and perhaps even enrage all of us.

There are a few points to remember as we begin this journey. Calgarians like their city. A poll commissioned for this project found 83 per cent of people satisfied with the quality of life in the city. And Calgarians like their neighbourhoods even more — 85 per cent said they were satisfied with 39 per cent saying they were very satisfied. There is, however, room for improvement.

“I think a question like this shows that (Calgarians are) content,” said Jaideep Mukerji, managing director of Angus Reid, who conducted the poll. “It’s a positive feeling but it’s not necessarily a very intensely positive feeling with respect to Calgary in general.”

Affordability, for example, is still a concern for many Calgarians, and along with this comes questions of poverty, charity and community. Interestingly, our poll found the most important part of neighbourhood life to Calgarians is not safety or amenities, but the old-fashioned notion of neighbourliness.

“It’s the quality of your neighbours and the quality of your housing that really tend to drive overall satisfaction,” said Mukerji. “It’s very much ‘Do I live around nice people?’ and ‘Do I live in a nice place?’ And those seem almost banal, but they actually really do have a pretty big impact on people’s overall satisfaction with their neighbourhood.”

These are just some of the issues that will be addressed over the coming 100 days. We’re kicking off Project Calgary with a look at one of the most contentious areas of civic life: Transportation. Over the next two weeks, you’ll see data and stories related to walkability, traffic and transportation, and it’s sure to spark a discussion — as the launch this week of a new bike lane in the city has proved.

In addition to the stories, photos, maps and data you’ll see in the print edition of the Herald, our website will feature even more.

Project Calgary is intended to be an ongoing conversation about neighbourhood life, so we invite you to get involved. Share your comments on our blog, discuss the data, tell us why you love your community or what would make it better. Project Calgary is being set up as a living initiative, so if you have an idea for us to explore, or some data you think we should track down and share, let us know. Tell us about your community, share your photographs and take part in our regular live chats. This project is intended to be a journey, and we’d love some company for the ride.

LATE SUMMER BUILDING PERMIT BOOM

Developers give Calgary 'a vote of confidence'
By Mario Toneguzzi,
Calgary Herald October 7, 2011

A burst of late summer construction put Calgary among the country's biggest gainers in building permit values last month.

Statistics Canada reported Thursday that local building permit values soared to $461 million in August, an increase of 23.6 per cent from July and 77 per cent from a year earlier.

Susan Thompson, business development manager for real estate for Calgary Economic Development, said the numbers indicate "developers are giving Calgary a vote of confidence. It takes time to build a building, but they're thinking there's going to be the demand there.

"By the time they're complete, we're going to need these buildings," said Thompson.

Half of the 14 permit applications valued at more than $20 million this year have been for multi-family housing projects, said Thompson.

Building permits are a good indicator of the city's economy going forward, she said.

"It speaks to intention," she said. "They wouldn't build them if they didn't think there was going to be demand. They obviously feel the economy is going to keep growing and the demand's going to be there."

Building permit values through August in Calgary now top $3.4 billion, an increase of 36.8 per cent from the same period a year ago. The total is almost equally split between the residential and non-residential sectors. The residential sector has increased by 9.5 per cent and the non-residential sector is up 84.1 per cent.

Ben Brunnen, director of policy and government affairs and chief economist for the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, said the numbers reflect renewed confidence in the Calgary economy.

"When we see building permits in Calgary increase that's for the construction sector and that tends to be the sector that falls off first in a recession and comes on last in a recovery," he said. "So the fact that we're seeing these increases in Calgary particularly relative to the other cities suggest that there's a vote of confidence for Calgary's economy moving forward."

TELL ME A STORY

What's the real story of Canada's housing market?
Financial Post · Oct. 5, 2011

OTTAWA — Home prices rose during the third quarter of 2011, but the raw numbers may not be telling the whole story of the Canadian housing market, a new survey says.

The Royal LePage House Price Survey released Wednesday found that the average price of a home in Canada increased between 5.7% and 7.8% in the third quarter of 2011 compared with the same period last year.

The average price of a detached bungalow was $349,974, a standard two-storey home was $388,218 and a standard condominium was $239,300, according to the survey.

Royal LePage said that the rise in price defied expectations and suggested that record-low interest rates and a fairly stable Canadian economy have bolstered consumer confidence.

However, the third quarter of 2010 was a relatively weak period for housing prices, which makes the increase this year appear rosier than they are and may mask a decline in prices in the months ahead, it said.

“The strength in Canada’s national housing market conceals signs of predictable softening in some regions,” Phil Soper, president and chief executive of Royal LePage Real Estate Services, said in a statement.

“A broader slowdown is expected in the months ahead, but fears of a U.S.-style correction are completely unfounded.”

Vancouver had the highest priced homes in the country during the third quarter of 2011 and was the only city in the survey where the average bungalow or two-storey home cost more than $1 million.

Halifax, Montreal, Toronto, Saint John, N.B., and Ottawa all saw prices increase between 4.4% and 10.4%.

In Alberta, the volume of homes trading hands increased, but prices stayed soft, the survey found: Detached bungalows in Calgary fell 1% in the third quarter.

Victoria was similarly weak, with detached bungalows and standard two-storey homes falling two and 1.1% respectively.

BIG PLAYERS, BIG MONEY!

Calgary magnet for big players
Claudia Cattaneo
Financial Post; Sept. 26, 2011

Like the rest of the country, Calgary has seen its ups and downs over the past decade, but what hasn't changed is its ability to attract corporate headquarters.

The latest one landed last week, when Aecon Group Inc., the largest publicly traded construction and infrastructure development company in Canada, opened a co-head office in Calgary to support activity in Alberta, British Columbia and Saskatchewan. It mirrors its long-standing legal headquarters in Toronto. Each office will employ 15 to 20 people.

The move, announced in the middle of another scary week in the markets, reinforces a trend that, if it continues, could see Calgary surpass Toronto in the next 10 years in terms of the number of headquarters, said Wilf Gobert, chairman of Calgary Economic Development (CED).

Calgary already boasts Canada's highest concentration of headquarters relative to its population.

The trend seems to be progressing as companies look past fears of a recession and establish roots in the city on long-term expectations that Alberta's energy-based economy will remain vibrant.

"We are involved in three basic sectors - the resources sector, the energy sector and the transportation sector," Aecon chairman and CEO John Beck said in an interview. "We don't see slowdowns in any of those sectors."

Aecon joined Brookfield Residential Properties and Native American Resource Partners in opening headquarters in Calgary this year. Universal Power Corp., Stream Oil & Gas Ltd., Petromanas Energy Inc., Osborne Interim Management made Calgary their home base in 2010.

Calgary's metropolitan area increased its headquarter count by 55.7% between 2001 and 2010 - to 123 from 79, according to figures compiled by CED from FP 500 data.

In contrast, headquarters in Toronto's metropolitan area declined by 18% over the same period - to 260 from 317.

The only other Canadian city that had a bigger growth rate was Edmonton, which grew its headquarters by 64.3% - to 23 from 14, between 2001 and 2010.

"Generally speaking there is a shift from East to West," Mr. Beck said. "We are just part of that shift. We see more growth in the West in terms of population growth, we see growth in terms of exports to Asia. Voting power is moving towards Western Canada. I would say that the normal thing that would follow that shift would be a continued addition of head offices in the West."

The growth in head-office jobs shows up in office leasing, which is moving at a record pace. According to CED, 1.5 million square feet of office space was leased in the first six months of 2011 in downtown Calgary. In contrast, in the Greater Toronto Area, where the leasing market is four times Calgary's size, 1.2 million square feet were leased over the same period.

The leasing reflects the arrival to the Calgary scene of new energy players such as China's state-controlled oil companies. While they may not be part of the head-office tally, they are setting up significant subsidiaries and buying up condos to house their expatriate workers. PetroChina, with offices in the Sun Life Plaza, has the largest presence. Sinopec is in Bow Valley Square. Cnooc Ltd. is flying people in and out, but is expected to have a large permanent office once its acquisition of Opti Canada Inc. is finalized.

The influx of Chinese money is so large there are calls for direct flights between Calgary and Beijing, bypassing Vancouver, even as British Columbia steps up efforts to establish itself as Canada's gateway to Asia.

Aecon opened a Calgary co-headquarter in the city's core to better serve its clients and further develop its business, Mr. Beck said. A third of its $3-billion in annual revenue is coming from projects in Alberta, where its clientele includes Syncrude Canada Ltd., Suncor Energy Inc. and ConocoPhillips.

Mr. Beck doesn't expect a repeat of the oil sands cancellations that resulted from the financial meltdown three years ago.

"That was at US$30-US$35 oil. We are at US$80 to US$90, so I think we are far away from that," he said. "A lot of the commitments that have been made can't be stopped. Production has to continue."

Bruce Graham, president and CEO of CED, said Calgary's exceptional headquarter growth is based on the strength of energy and other commodities and is unique in Canada.

In addition to drawing energy companies, Calgary is attracting industries that are accommodating that growth, such as procurement, finance, construction, he said.

"It demonstrates the optimism and the activity that is happening, despite the somewhat mixed signals that we are getting in the global markets," Mr. Graham said from Montreal, where he was part of a campaign last week with Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi to recruit workers and businesses to the city.

But, Mr. Graham said, "We are not an island. Hopefully things settle out globally because obviously we need the marketplace to accommodate the production that we are putting on stream."

RISE & REPEAT

Prices rise for repeat home sales in city
By Mario Toneguzzi
Calgary Herald September 29, 2011

A survey of repeat home sales shows Calgary prices increased in July by 2.3 per cent from the previous month.

But the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index, released Wednesday, also indicated Calgary prices are down 0.9 per cent from a year ago - the only centre in the survey to experience a year-over-year price decline.

The index is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index.

The survey also said Calgary's index is still down 8.8 per cent from its alltime high of August 2007 and down 0.9 per cent from its pre-correction peak of August 2010.

For the six centres surveyed, the index was up 1.3 per cent on a monthly basis and 5.3 per cent on an annual basis.

Monthly increases were experienced in Montreal, 0.5 per cent, Ottawa, 1.0 per cent, Toronto, 1.7 per cent, and Vancouver, 0.9 per cent.

Annual increases were experienced in Halifax, 3.3 per cent, Montreal, 6.0 per cent, Ottawa, 4.1 per cent, Toronto, 4.8 per cent, and Vancouver, 8.5 per cent.

Meanwhile, the latest Global Real Estate Trends report released by Scotia Economics said the renewed slowdown in global economic activity is putting further downward pressure on already-weak residential property markets across much of the developed world.

And while Canada's hot housing market also has begun to cool, it remains a "notable outperformer," said Adrienne Warren, senior economist and real estate specialist with Scotia Economics.

Of the nine major developed markets tracked by Scotia Economics, with available second quarter data, only Canada, France and Switzerland registered positive year-over-year real price growth.

The report said Canada's housing market stands out in its resilience and longevity. Average inflation-adjusted existing home prices were up five per cent year-over-year in the April-June period, on par with the first-quarter's pace of appreciation. Data for July and August point to continued firm but stable sales through the late summer, alongside a levelling out in prices.

"Ultralow interest rates will continue to support affordability in the face of record high prices," said Warren. "Nonetheless, heightened economic uncertainty combined with recent signs of a loss of momentum in Canada's jobs market could keep some potential buyers on the sidelines for the time being. On balance, we anticipate a modest slowdown in the volume of sales transactions heading into year-end, alongside relatively flat prices."

Photo By: Design Inspiration Gallery

CURB YOUR UNRULY BUSH!

Get enthusiastic about curb appeal
By Sheila Brady
Postmedia News September 11, 2011

It doesn't matter if you're just starting out in a new home, thinking about selling, or stayin' put - buffing up the curb appeal of your house is an absolute must. How your home looks from the outside is the first impression viewers get of who lives inside.

And real estate agents will tell you when it comes to selling, there is no bigger turnoff than a messy front yard or sad-looking front door.

The cheapest way to put a shine on the old address is to grab the rake.

Weed, trim edges for a clean appearance and prune and shape overgrown bushes. Snip off lower branches of pines for a good neat factor.

Add mulch or stones under cedars and around flower beds. Just like a new haircut, you will feel lighter by the end of the day.

Think about eliminating fences and using joint walkways, garden beds and plantings on smaller suburban lots, especially when there are bungalow or two storey townhouses, says landscape architect Welwyn Wong.

When it comes to door colour, co-ordinate with trim work and the brick colour, says colour specialist Jasmine Houghton. Avoid shocking colours.