Wednesday, September 2, 2009

RECOVERING OR RECOVERY?



Calgary housing market in full recovery mode
By Mario Toneguzzi,
Calgary Herald
SEPTEMBER 2, 2009

CALGARY - Calgary's residential real estate market has turned around dramatically from the doldrums it experienced at the beginning of the year.

In January, sales in both the single-family home and the condominium market had plunged to levels about 50 per cent below the previous year.

But MLS data released Tuesday by the Calgary Real Estate Board on August's market paints a different picture. For the fourth consecutive month, sales have increased compared with last year and the average sale price for a single-family home rose in August, the first year-over-year increase since February 2008.

Calgary realtor Laura Schewchenko, with Re/ Max Real Estate (Central), has seen interest pick up in the local real estate market. A listing she has in the prestigious Mount Royal neighbourhood for nearly $3.5 million is an example.

"Every weekend, I've done an open house and it's been a packed house. There's people coming in," said Schewchenko, adding potential homebuyers in the luxury price range are looking again at the market.

She said low interest rates have helped fuel activity in the real estate market as well as prices, which have dropped from peak levels two years ago.

"People are realizing now is the time to buy. (Prices) are not going to go lower," said Schewchenko. "You're seeing now CS(conditionally sold) stickers and Sold stickers on lots of signs. People are just having more faith in the economy."

The real estate board said singlefamily home sales in August were 1,277, up 9.15 per cent from August 2008, while condo sales were 632, up 27.68 per cent from a year ago.

The average sale price for a singlefamily home in August was$454,130, a 3.06 per cent hike from last year. That was the first year-over-year increase on a monthly basis since February 2008.

The average sale price for a condo in August was $283,330, off 1.56 per cent from last year.

"Calgary's housing prices are edging upwards as consumer confidence improves and demand continues to grow," said Bonnie Wegerich, president of the Calgary Real Estate Board. "The recent $10.3-million sale (of former Flames goaltender Mike Vernon's home in Elbow Park) has undoubtedly boosted the average price this month, but even without this sale, the average price is higher than a year ago."

The real estate board said the average price of a single-family home in Calgary without the sale of that mansion would be $446,413.The average in August 2008 was $440,625. The Vernon house sale was the biggest in Calgary history.

"We might see a gradual edging up in average prices come this fall, but, on the whole, prices will most likely remain relatively stable," said Wegerich.

The MLS statistics from the past few months have to be regarded in light of previous years when the market was on fire, said David Allwright, associate dean of the Bissett School of Business at Mount Royal College.

"There certainly was a dramatic braking of the real estate market a little over a year ago," said Allwright. "So the fact we're coming back a little bit now may simply be an indication that it might have been an overreaction back then and this is just a correction back to something a bit more sustainable.

"The fact it increased over last August is more of an indication of just how bad last August was as opposed to how good this August is," he said.

Wegerich said there is more confidence today in the local market.

"I still think it's the first-time buyers mainly now followed by the move-up buyers," she said. "There's not as many lower-end homes (for sale)as there were. There's still a good choice out there, but it's a little bit harder to find them than it was."

She said low mortgage rates and government incentives have had a positive impact on the market. As well, confidence levels have risen with more positive economic news.

The last time average sale prices rose compared with the same month the previous year was in February 2008, when single-family homes experienced a 5.2 per cent hike from February 2007 to$471,696 and condos rose by 3.3 per cent from February 2007 to $311,812.

Average MLS sale prices for singlefamily homes peaked in July 2007 at $505,920 and for condos in May 2007 at $332,237.

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